Intrinsic value of FibroGen, Inc - FGEN

Previous Close

$55.68

  Intrinsic Value

$151.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+172%

Previous close

$55.68

 
Intrinsic value

$151.39

 
Up/down potential

+172%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of FGEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  341
  527
  787
  1,143
  1,612
  2,216
  2,975
  3,906
  5,026
  6,348
  7,883
  9,638
  11,616
  13,821
  16,251
  18,904
  21,776
  24,862
  28,158
  31,658
  35,358
  39,253
  43,342
  47,622
  52,092
  56,754
  61,608
  66,659
  71,910
  77,369
Variable operating expenses, $m
  205
  310
  457
  658
  922
  1,263
  1,691
  2,217
  2,849
  3,595
  4,449
  5,439
  6,556
  7,800
  9,172
  10,669
  12,290
  14,032
  15,892
  17,867
  19,955
  22,154
  24,461
  26,877
  29,400
  32,030
  34,770
  37,621
  40,585
  43,665
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  174
  178
  181
  185
  190
  194
  198
  202
  207
  211
  216
  221
  226
  231
  236
  241
  246
  252
  257
  263
  268
  274
  280
  287
  293
  299
  306
  313
  320
  327
Total operating expenses, $m
  379
  488
  638
  843
  1,112
  1,457
  1,889
  2,419
  3,056
  3,806
  4,665
  5,660
  6,782
  8,031
  9,408
  10,910
  12,536
  14,284
  16,149
  18,130
  20,223
  22,428
  24,741
  27,164
  29,693
  32,329
  35,076
  37,934
  40,905
  43,992
Operating income, $m
  -38
  39
  149
  300
  500
  759
  1,085
  1,486
  1,970
  2,541
  3,218
  3,978
  4,835
  5,790
  6,844
  7,994
  9,240
  10,579
  12,009
  13,528
  15,134
  16,825
  18,600
  20,459
  22,400
  24,424
  26,532
  28,726
  31,006
  33,377
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  68
  186
  347
  562
  840
  1,189
  1,619
  2,137
  2,749
  3,460
  4,274
  5,192
  6,216
  7,344
  8,576
  9,910
  11,344
  12,875
  14,502
  16,222
  18,033
  19,934
  21,924
  24,002
  26,170
  28,427
  30,776
  33,219
  35,757
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  11
  26
  57
  100
  159
  237
  337
  463
  618
  804
  1,024
  1,279
  1,571
  1,899
  2,266
  2,670
  3,110
  3,588
  4,101
  4,648
  5,230
  5,845
  6,492
  7,171
  7,883
  8,626
  9,400
  10,207
  11,046
  11,919
Earnings before tax, $m
  -49
  13
  92
  200
  341
  522
  748
  1,023
  1,352
  1,737
  2,194
  2,699
  3,264
  3,891
  4,578
  5,325
  6,130
  6,991
  7,909
  8,880
  9,904
  10,981
  12,108
  13,287
  14,517
  15,798
  17,132
  18,519
  19,960
  21,458
Tax expense, $m
  0
  4
  25
  54
  92
  141
  202
  276
  365
  469
  592
  729
  881
  1,051
  1,236
  1,438
  1,655
  1,888
  2,135
  2,398
  2,674
  2,965
  3,269
  3,588
  3,920
  4,266
  4,626
  5,000
  5,389
  5,794
Net income, $m
  -49
  10
  67
  146
  249
  381
  546
  747
  987
  1,268
  1,602
  1,970
  2,383
  2,840
  3,342
  3,887
  4,475
  5,104
  5,773
  6,482
  7,230
  8,016
  8,839
  9,700
  10,597
  11,533
  12,506
  13,519
  14,571
  15,665

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  557
  860
  1,287
  1,867
  2,634
  3,621
  4,860
  6,382
  8,212
  10,373
  12,880
  15,748
  18,981
  22,584
  26,555
  30,889
  35,582
  40,625
  46,010
  51,728
  57,774
  64,139
  70,820
  77,813
  85,118
  92,735
  100,667
  108,920
  117,501
  126,420
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  557
  860
  1,287
  1,867
  2,634
  3,621
  4,860
  6,382
  8,212
  10,373
  12,880
  15,748
  18,981
  22,584
  26,555
  30,889
  35,582
  40,625
  46,010
  51,728
  57,774
  64,139
  70,820
  77,813
  85,118
  92,735
  100,667
  108,920
  117,501
  126,420
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.612
  0.613
  0.611
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
Average production assets, $m
  206
  318
  475
  689
  972
  1,336
  1,794
  2,355
  3,031
  3,828
  4,753
  5,811
  7,005
  8,334
  9,800
  11,399
  13,131
  14,992
  16,979
  19,090
  21,321
  23,670
  26,135
  28,716
  31,412
  34,222
  37,150
  40,195
  43,362
  46,653
Working capital, $m
  -33
  -51
  -76
  -110
  -155
  -213
  -286
  -375
  -482
  -609
  -757
  -925
  -1,115
  -1,327
  -1,560
  -1,815
  -2,091
  -2,387
  -2,703
  -3,039
  -3,394
  -3,768
  -4,161
  -4,572
  -5,001
  -5,448
  -5,914
  -6,399
  -6,903
  -7,427
Total debt, $m
  227
  500
  884
  1,406
  2,096
  2,985
  4,100
  5,470
  7,117
  9,061
  11,318
  13,899
  16,809
  20,051
  23,625
  27,526
  31,749
  36,288
  41,134
  46,281
  51,722
  57,451
  63,464
  69,758
  76,332
  83,187
  90,326
  97,753
  105,476
  113,504
Total liabilities, $m
  501
  774
  1,158
  1,680
  2,371
  3,259
  4,374
  5,744
  7,391
  9,335
  11,592
  14,173
  17,083
  20,325
  23,899
  27,800
  32,024
  36,562
  41,409
  46,556
  51,996
  57,725
  63,738
  70,032
  76,606
  83,461
  90,600
  98,028
  105,751
  113,778
Total equity, $m
  56
  86
  129
  187
  263
  362
  486
  638
  821
  1,037
  1,288
  1,575
  1,898
  2,258
  2,655
  3,089
  3,558
  4,062
  4,601
  5,173
  5,777
  6,414
  7,082
  7,781
  8,512
  9,273
  10,067
  10,892
  11,750
  12,642
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  557
  860
  1,287
  1,867
  2,634
  3,621
  4,860
  6,382
  8,212
  10,372
  12,880
  15,748
  18,981
  22,583
  26,554
  30,889
  35,582
  40,624
  46,010
  51,729
  57,773
  64,139
  70,820
  77,813
  85,118
  92,734
  100,667
  108,920
  117,501
  126,420
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.080
  5.810
  6.870
  7.530
  7.960
  8.240
  8.440
  8.570
  8.670
  8.740
  8.790
  8.830
  8.860
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -49
  10
  67
  146
  249
  381
  546
  747
  987
  1,268
  1,602
  1,970
  2,383
  2,840
  3,342
  3,887
  4,475
  5,104
  5,773
  6,482
  7,230
  8,016
  8,839
  9,700
  10,597
  11,533
  12,506
  13,519
  14,571
  15,665
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  29
  37
  48
  62
  81
  104
  133
  167
  208
  243
  297
  357
  425
  500
  582
  670
  765
  866
  974
  1,088
  1,208
  1,333
  1,465
  1,603
  1,746
  1,895
  2,051
  2,212
  2,380
Funds from operations, $m
  -26
  39
  104
  194
  311
  462
  650
  880
  1,154
  1,476
  1,844
  2,267
  2,740
  3,266
  3,842
  4,469
  5,145
  5,869
  6,640
  7,456
  8,318
  9,224
  10,173
  11,165
  12,200
  13,279
  14,402
  15,569
  16,783
  18,045
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  -18
  -25
  -34
  -45
  -58
  -73
  -89
  -108
  -127
  -147
  -168
  -190
  -212
  -233
  -255
  -276
  -296
  -316
  -336
  -355
  -374
  -393
  -411
  -429
  -447
  -466
  -485
  -504
  -524
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  57
  129
  228
  356
  520
  723
  969
  1,262
  1,603
  1,992
  2,435
  2,930
  3,477
  4,075
  4,723
  5,420
  6,165
  6,956
  7,792
  8,673
  9,598
  10,565
  11,576
  12,629
  13,726
  14,868
  16,054
  17,288
  18,569
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -10
  -16
  -24
  -35
  -50
  -68
  -92
  -120
  -155
  -195
  -243
  -297
  -357
  -425
  -500
  -582
  -670
  -765
  -866
  -974
  -1,088
  -1,208
  -1,333
  -1,465
  -1,603
  -1,746
  -1,895
  -2,051
  -2,212
New CAPEX, $m
  -77
  -112
  -157
  -214
  -283
  -364
  -457
  -562
  -675
  -797
  -925
  -1,058
  -1,193
  -1,330
  -1,465
  -1,600
  -1,732
  -1,861
  -1,987
  -2,110
  -2,231
  -2,349
  -2,465
  -2,581
  -2,696
  -2,811
  -2,927
  -3,046
  -3,167
  -3,291
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -84
  -122
  -173
  -238
  -318
  -414
  -525
  -654
  -795
  -952
  -1,120
  -1,301
  -1,490
  -1,687
  -1,890
  -2,100
  -2,314
  -2,531
  -2,752
  -2,976
  -3,205
  -3,437
  -3,673
  -3,914
  -4,161
  -4,414
  -4,673
  -4,941
  -5,218
  -5,503
Free cash flow, $m
  -97
  -66
  -44
  -11
  38
  106
  197
  316
  466
  651
  871
  1,134
  1,440
  1,790
  2,185
  2,624
  3,107
  3,634
  4,204
  4,816
  5,468
  6,161
  6,892
  7,661
  8,469
  9,313
  10,194
  11,113
  12,070
  13,065
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  130
  273
  384
  522
  690
  888
  1,115
  1,369
  1,647
  1,944
  2,257
  2,580
  2,910
  3,242
  3,574
  3,901
  4,223
  4,539
  4,846
  5,147
  5,441
  5,729
  6,013
  6,294
  6,574
  6,855
  7,139
  7,428
  7,723
  8,027
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  128
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  258
  294
  384
  522
  690
  888
  1,115
  1,369
  1,647
  1,944
  2,257
  2,580
  2,910
  3,242
  3,574
  3,901
  4,223
  4,539
  4,846
  5,147
  5,441
  5,729
  6,013
  6,294
  6,574
  6,855
  7,139
  7,428
  7,723
  8,027
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  161
  228
  340
  512
  728
  995
  1,313
  1,686
  2,113
  2,596
  3,128
  3,715
  4,351
  5,033
  5,758
  6,525
  7,330
  8,173
  9,050
  9,963
  10,909
  11,890
  12,905
  13,955
  15,043
  16,168
  17,333
  18,541
  19,793
  21,092
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -128
  -30
  -43
  -58
  -77
  -99
  -124
  -152
  -183
  -216
  -251
  -287
  -323
  -360
  -397
  -433
  -469
  -504
  -538
  -572
  -605
  -637
  -668
  -699
  -730
  -762
  -793
  -825
  -858
  -892
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  532
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  565
  197
  297
  454
  652
  896
  1,189
  1,533
  1,930
  2,380
  2,877
  3,428
  4,027
  4,673
  5,361
  6,091
  6,861
  7,668
  8,512
  9,391
  10,304
  11,253
  12,237
  13,256
  14,312
  15,406
  16,540
  17,716
  18,935
  20,200
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  542
  181
  258
  373
  505
  650
  803
  958
  1,109
  1,247
  1,366
  1,463
  1,531
  1,569
  1,574
  1,548
  1,493
  1,412
  1,311
  1,193
  1,066
  934
  802
  675
  557
  449
  355
  274
  207
  152
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1
  48.1

FibroGen, Inc. is a science-based biopharmaceutical company discovering and developing a pipeline of first- in-class therapeutics. The Company is focused on fibrosis and hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) biology and clinical development to advance innovative medicines for the treatment of anemia, fibrotic disease, and cancer. Roxadustat, the Company’s most advanced product candidate, is an oral small molecule inhibitor of HIF prolyl hydroxylase activity in Phase III clinical development for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD), and is entering Phase III development for anemia in lower risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). The Company has developed Pamrevlumab. Pamrevlumab is a proprietary therapeutic antibody to inhibit the activity of connective tissue growth factor (CTGF), a common factor in chronic fibrotic and proliferative disorders characterized by persistent and excessive scarring that can lead to organ dysfunction and failure.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FibroGen, Inc (FGEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -57.2
Price to Sales 19.7
Price to Book 22.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 506.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 590.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -32.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 71.8%
Total Debt to Equity 71.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Return On Total Capital -22.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Return On Equity -37.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -40%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -31.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.6%
Operating Margin -29.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -34.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.8%
Net Profit Margin -34.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

FGEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FGEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $213 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FibroGen, Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of FibroGen, Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FGEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FGEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FibroGen, Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FibroGen, Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FGEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $170 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FGEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.3% for FibroGen, Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FibroGen, Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FGEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FGEN are equal to 60.3%.

Life of production assets of 19.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FibroGen, Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FGEN is equal to -9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $509.199 million for FibroGen, Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.487 million for FibroGen, Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FibroGen, Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.8 billion.

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