Intrinsic value of Federated Investors - FII

Previous Close

$22.70

  Intrinsic Value

$40.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+77%

Previous close

$22.70

 
Intrinsic value

$40.18

 
Up/down potential

+77%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FII.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,125
  1,151
  1,181
  1,214
  1,251
  1,291
  1,335
  1,382
  1,434
  1,489
  1,548
  1,610
  1,677
  1,748
  1,824
  1,904
  1,988
  2,078
  2,172
  2,272
  2,377
  2,489
  2,606
  2,729
  2,859
  2,996
  3,140
  3,291
  3,450
  3,618
Variable operating expenses, $m
  793
  809
  828
  849
  873
  899
  927
  957
  990
  1,025
  989
  1,029
  1,072
  1,118
  1,166
  1,217
  1,271
  1,328
  1,389
  1,452
  1,520
  1,591
  1,665
  1,744
  1,827
  1,915
  2,007
  2,104
  2,205
  2,313
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  793
  809
  828
  849
  873
  899
  927
  957
  990
  1,025
  989
  1,029
  1,072
  1,118
  1,166
  1,217
  1,271
  1,328
  1,389
  1,452
  1,520
  1,591
  1,665
  1,744
  1,827
  1,915
  2,007
  2,104
  2,205
  2,313
Operating income, $m
  332
  342
  352
  364
  378
  392
  408
  425
  444
  463
  558
  581
  605
  631
  658
  687
  717
  750
  784
  820
  858
  898
  940
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,187
  1,245
  1,305
EBITDA, $m
  485
  496
  509
  523
  539
  556
  575
  596
  618
  642
  667
  694
  723
  753
  786
  820
  857
  895
  936
  979
  1,024
  1,072
  1,123
  1,176
  1,232
  1,291
  1,353
  1,418
  1,487
  1,559
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  323
  332
  342
  353
  366
  379
  394
  411
  428
  447
  540
  562
  584
  608
  634
  661
  690
  720
  752
  786
  822
  859
  899
  941
  985
  1,031
  1,080
  1,131
  1,185
  1,242
Tax expense, $m
  87
  90
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  278
  292
  305
  320
  335
Net income, $m
  236
  242
  250
  258
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  326
  394
  410
  427
  444
  463
  483
  504
  526
  549
  574
  600
  627
  656
  687
  719
  753
  788
  826
  865
  907

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,011
  1,034
  1,061
  1,090
  1,124
  1,160
  1,199
  1,242
  1,288
  1,338
  1,390
  1,447
  1,507
  1,571
  1,639
  1,710
  1,786
  1,867
  1,952
  2,041
  2,136
  2,236
  2,341
  2,452
  2,569
  2,691
  2,821
  2,957
  3,100
  3,251
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,011
  1,034
  1,061
  1,090
  1,124
  1,160
  1,199
  1,242
  1,288
  1,338
  1,390
  1,447
  1,507
  1,571
  1,639
  1,710
  1,786
  1,867
  1,952
  2,041
  2,136
  2,236
  2,341
  2,452
  2,569
  2,691
  2,821
  2,957
  3,100
  3,251
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.114
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.114
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
  1.113
Average production assets, $m
  789
  807
  828
  851
  877
  905
  936
  969
  1,005
  1,044
  1,085
  1,129
  1,176
  1,226
  1,278
  1,334
  1,394
  1,457
  1,523
  1,593
  1,667
  1,744
  1,827
  1,913
  2,004
  2,100
  2,201
  2,307
  2,419
  2,536
Working capital, $m
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -156
Total debt, $m
  180
  191
  203
  218
  233
  251
  269
  290
  311
  335
  360
  387
  415
  446
  478
  512
  548
  586
  627
  669
  714
  762
  812
  864
  920
  978
  1,039
  1,104
  1,172
  1,244
Total liabilities, $m
  480
  491
  504
  518
  534
  551
  570
  590
  612
  635
  660
  687
  716
  746
  778
  812
  849
  887
  927
  970
  1,015
  1,062
  1,112
  1,165
  1,220
  1,278
  1,340
  1,405
  1,473
  1,544
Total equity, $m
  531
  543
  557
  573
  590
  609
  630
  652
  676
  702
  730
  760
  791
  825
  860
  898
  938
  980
  1,025
  1,072
  1,121
  1,174
  1,229
  1,287
  1,349
  1,413
  1,481
  1,552
  1,628
  1,707
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,011
  1,034
  1,061
  1,091
  1,124
  1,160
  1,200
  1,242
  1,288
  1,337
  1,390
  1,447
  1,507
  1,571
  1,638
  1,710
  1,787
  1,867
  1,952
  2,042
  2,136
  2,236
  2,341
  2,452
  2,569
  2,691
  2,821
  2,957
  3,101
  3,251
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  236
  242
  250
  258
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  326
  394
  410
  427
  444
  463
  483
  504
  526
  549
  574
  600
  627
  656
  687
  719
  753
  788
  826
  865
  907
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  153
  154
  156
  159
  161
  164
  167
  171
  174
  178
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
Funds from operations, $m
  388
  397
  406
  417
  428
  441
  455
  470
  487
  504
  503
  523
  544
  567
  591
  616
  643
  671
  701
  733
  766
  802
  839
  878
  919
  963
  1,008
  1,057
  1,107
  1,160
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  389
  398
  407
  418
  430
  443
  457
  472
  489
  506
  505
  526
  547
  570
  594
  619
  647
  675
  705
  737
  771
  807
  844
  883
  925
  969
  1,015
  1,063
  1,114
  1,168
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -343
  -360
Free cash flow, $m
  297
  301
  306
  312
  319
  327
  336
  345
  356
  367
  360
  373
  387
  402
  418
  436
  454
  473
  493
  515
  538
  562
  587
  614
  643
  672
  704
  737
  772
  808
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  306
  312
  319
  326
  335
  344
  355
  366
  378
  391
  385
  400
  416
  433
  451
  470
  490
  511
  534
  558
  583
  609
  637
  667
  698
  731
  765
  801
  840
  880
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  241
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Cash available for distribution, $m
  537
  300
  305
  311
  317
  325
  334
  343
  354
  365
  357
  370
  384
  399
  415
  432
  450
  469
  489
  511
  533
  557
  582
  609
  637
  666
  697
  730
  764
  801
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  515
  274
  265
  256
  246
  236
  226
  215
  203
  191
  170
  158
  146
  134
  122
  110
  98
  86
  75
  65
  55
  46
  38
  31
  25
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Federated Investors, Inc. (Federated) is a provider of investment management products and related financial services. Federated operates through investment management business segment. It is engaged in sponsoring, marketing and providing investment-related services to various investment products, including mutual funds and Separate Accounts, which include separately managed accounts, institutional accounts, sub-advised funds and other managed products. It operates in one segment, the investment management business. As of December 31, 2016, Federated provided investment advisory services to 124 sponsored investment companies and other funds (Federated Funds). It markets these funds to banks, brokers and dealers and other financial intermediaries using them to meet the needs of their customers and clients, including retail investors, corporations and retirement plans. The Company offers a range of products and strategies, including money market, equity and fixed-income investments.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Federated Investors (FII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.1
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 116.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 27.7%
Total Debt to Equity 32.1%
Interest Coverage 115
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Return On Total Capital 25.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Return On Equity 33.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 97.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 97%
EBITDA Margin 31%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Operating Margin 29.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 29.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
Net Profit Margin 18.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Effective Tax Rate 34.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 98.1%

FII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1103 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Federated Investors. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Federated Investors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Federated Investors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Federated Investors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Federated Investors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Federated Investors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FII stock is equal to 2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FII are equal to 70.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Federated Investors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FII is equal to -4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $761 million for Federated Investors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 101 million for Federated Investors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Federated Investors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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