Intrinsic value of Fidelity National Information Services, - FIS

Previous Close

$108.12

  Intrinsic Value

$65.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-40%

Previous close

$108.12

 
Intrinsic value

$65.36

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FIS.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 34.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  8,591
  8,789
  9,015
  9,269
  9,550
  9,858
  10,194
  10,557
  10,948
  11,369
  11,818
  12,298
  12,809
  13,351
  13,927
  14,538
  15,184
  15,867
  16,589
  17,351
  18,155
  19,003
  19,897
  20,839
  21,831
  22,876
  23,975
  25,132
  26,350
  27,630
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,137
  7,259
  7,398
  7,554
  7,727
  7,917
  8,123
  8,347
  8,588
  8,847
  7,276
  7,572
  7,886
  8,220
  8,575
  8,951
  9,348
  9,769
  10,214
  10,683
  11,178
  11,700
  12,251
  12,831
  13,442
  14,085
  14,762
  15,474
  16,223
  17,012
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,137
  7,259
  7,398
  7,554
  7,727
  7,917
  8,123
  8,347
  8,588
  8,847
  7,276
  7,572
  7,886
  8,220
  8,575
  8,951
  9,348
  9,769
  10,214
  10,683
  11,178
  11,700
  12,251
  12,831
  13,442
  14,085
  14,762
  15,474
  16,223
  17,012
Operating income, $m
  1,455
  1,530
  1,617
  1,715
  1,823
  1,941
  2,070
  2,210
  2,360
  2,522
  4,542
  4,726
  4,922
  5,131
  5,352
  5,587
  5,835
  6,098
  6,375
  6,668
  6,977
  7,303
  7,647
  8,009
  8,390
  8,791
  9,214
  9,658
  10,126
  10,618
EBITDA, $m
  4,050
  4,143
  4,250
  4,369
  4,501
  4,647
  4,805
  4,976
  5,161
  5,359
  5,571
  5,797
  6,038
  6,294
  6,565
  6,853
  7,157
  7,479
  7,820
  8,179
  8,558
  8,958
  9,379
  9,823
  10,291
  10,783
  11,302
  11,847
  12,421
  13,024
Interest expense (income), $m
  351
  485
  500
  517
  537
  559
  584
  610
  640
  671
  705
  742
  781
  823
  867
  914
  964
  1,017
  1,073
  1,133
  1,196
  1,262
  1,332
  1,406
  1,483
  1,565
  1,651
  1,742
  1,838
  1,938
  2,044
Earnings before tax, $m
  969
  1,030
  1,100
  1,178
  1,264
  1,358
  1,460
  1,570
  1,689
  1,817
  3,800
  3,945
  4,100
  4,264
  4,438
  4,623
  4,818
  5,024
  5,242
  5,472
  5,715
  5,971
  6,241
  6,525
  6,825
  7,140
  7,472
  7,821
  8,188
  8,574
Tax expense, $m
  262
  278
  297
  318
  341
  367
  394
  424
  456
  490
  1,026
  1,065
  1,107
  1,151
  1,198
  1,248
  1,301
  1,357
  1,415
  1,478
  1,543
  1,612
  1,685
  1,762
  1,843
  1,928
  2,017
  2,112
  2,211
  2,315
Net income, $m
  708
  752
  803
  860
  922
  991
  1,066
  1,146
  1,233
  1,326
  2,774
  2,880
  2,993
  3,113
  3,240
  3,375
  3,517
  3,668
  3,827
  3,995
  4,172
  4,359
  4,556
  4,764
  4,982
  5,212
  5,454
  5,709
  5,977
  6,259

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  24,270
  24,828
  25,466
  26,182
  26,976
  27,847
  28,795
  29,822
  30,928
  32,115
  33,385
  34,740
  36,182
  37,715
  39,342
  41,067
  42,892
  44,822
  46,861
  49,014
  51,286
  53,682
  56,207
  58,868
  61,671
  64,621
  67,727
  70,995
  74,434
  78,050
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  24,270
  24,828
  25,466
  26,182
  26,976
  27,847
  28,795
  29,822
  30,928
  32,115
  33,385
  34,740
  36,182
  37,715
  39,342
  41,067
  42,892
  44,822
  46,861
  49,014
  51,286
  53,682
  56,207
  58,868
  61,671
  64,621
  67,727
  70,995
  74,434
  78,050
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
Average production assets, $m
  10,250
  10,485
  10,755
  11,057
  11,393
  11,760
  12,161
  12,594
  13,062
  13,563
  14,099
  14,671
  15,281
  15,928
  16,615
  17,343
  18,114
  18,929
  19,790
  20,700
  21,659
  22,671
  23,738
  24,861
  26,045
  27,291
  28,603
  29,983
  31,435
  32,962
Working capital, $m
  223
  229
  234
  241
  248
  256
  265
  274
  285
  296
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  623
  653
  685
  718
Total debt, $m
  9,264
  9,582
  9,946
  10,354
  10,806
  11,303
  11,843
  12,429
  13,059
  13,735
  14,459
  15,232
  16,054
  16,928
  17,855
  18,838
  19,878
  20,978
  22,141
  23,368
  24,663
  26,029
  27,468
  28,985
  30,582
  32,264
  34,035
  35,897
  37,857
  39,919
Total liabilities, $m
  13,834
  14,152
  14,516
  14,924
  15,376
  15,873
  16,413
  16,999
  17,629
  18,305
  19,029
  19,802
  20,624
  21,498
  22,425
  23,408
  24,448
  25,548
  26,711
  27,938
  29,233
  30,599
  32,038
  33,555
  35,152
  36,834
  38,605
  40,467
  42,427
  44,489
Total equity, $m
  10,436
  10,676
  10,950
  11,258
  11,600
  11,974
  12,382
  12,823
  13,299
  13,809
  14,355
  14,938
  15,558
  16,218
  16,917
  17,659
  18,443
  19,273
  20,150
  21,076
  22,053
  23,083
  24,169
  25,313
  26,518
  27,787
  29,123
  30,528
  32,007
  33,562
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  24,270
  24,828
  25,466
  26,182
  26,976
  27,847
  28,795
  29,822
  30,928
  32,114
  33,384
  34,740
  36,182
  37,716
  39,342
  41,067
  42,891
  44,821
  46,861
  49,014
  51,286
  53,682
  56,207
  58,868
  61,670
  64,621
  67,728
  70,995
  74,434
  78,051
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  708
  752
  803
  860
  922
  991
  1,066
  1,146
  1,233
  1,326
  2,774
  2,880
  2,993
  3,113
  3,240
  3,375
  3,517
  3,668
  3,827
  3,995
  4,172
  4,359
  4,556
  4,764
  4,982
  5,212
  5,454
  5,709
  5,977
  6,259
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,595
  2,613
  2,632
  2,654
  2,679
  2,706
  2,735
  2,767
  2,801
  2,837
  1,029
  1,071
  1,115
  1,163
  1,213
  1,266
  1,322
  1,382
  1,445
  1,511
  1,581
  1,655
  1,733
  1,815
  1,901
  1,992
  2,088
  2,189
  2,295
  2,406
Funds from operations, $m
  3,303
  3,365
  3,435
  3,514
  3,601
  3,697
  3,801
  3,913
  4,034
  4,163
  3,803
  3,951
  4,108
  4,275
  4,453
  4,640
  4,839
  5,049
  5,271
  5,506
  5,753
  6,014
  6,289
  6,578
  6,883
  7,204
  7,542
  7,898
  8,272
  8,665
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Cash from operations, $m
  3,299
  3,359
  3,429
  3,507
  3,594
  3,689
  3,792
  3,903
  4,024
  4,152
  3,791
  3,939
  4,095
  4,261
  4,438
  4,625
  4,822
  5,032
  5,253
  5,486
  5,732
  5,992
  6,265
  6,554
  6,857
  7,177
  7,513
  7,868
  8,240
  8,632
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -734
  -748
  -765
  -785
  -807
  -832
  -858
  -888
  -919
  -953
  -990
  -1,029
  -1,071
  -1,115
  -1,163
  -1,213
  -1,266
  -1,322
  -1,382
  -1,445
  -1,511
  -1,581
  -1,655
  -1,733
  -1,815
  -1,901
  -1,992
  -2,088
  -2,189
  -2,295
New CAPEX, $m
  -197
  -236
  -269
  -303
  -335
  -368
  -401
  -434
  -467
  -501
  -536
  -572
  -609
  -648
  -687
  -728
  -771
  -815
  -861
  -909
  -959
  -1,012
  -1,067
  -1,124
  -1,184
  -1,246
  -1,312
  -1,380
  -1,452
  -1,527
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -931
  -984
  -1,034
  -1,088
  -1,142
  -1,200
  -1,259
  -1,322
  -1,386
  -1,454
  -1,526
  -1,601
  -1,680
  -1,763
  -1,850
  -1,941
  -2,037
  -2,137
  -2,243
  -2,354
  -2,470
  -2,593
  -2,722
  -2,857
  -2,999
  -3,147
  -3,304
  -3,468
  -3,641
  -3,822
Free cash flow, $m
  2,367
  2,376
  2,394
  2,420
  2,452
  2,489
  2,533
  2,582
  2,637
  2,698
  2,265
  2,337
  2,415
  2,498
  2,588
  2,684
  2,786
  2,894
  3,010
  3,132
  3,262
  3,399
  3,544
  3,697
  3,859
  4,030
  4,210
  4,399
  4,599
  4,810
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  279
  318
  364
  408
  452
  496
  541
  585
  630
  677
  724
  772
  822
  874
  927
  983
  1,040
  1,100
  1,162
  1,227
  1,295
  1,366
  1,440
  1,517
  1,597
  1,682
  1,770
  1,863
  1,960
  2,061
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  279
  318
  364
  408
  452
  496
  541
  585
  630
  677
  724
  772
  822
  874
  927
  983
  1,040
  1,100
  1,162
  1,227
  1,295
  1,366
  1,440
  1,517
  1,597
  1,682
  1,770
  1,863
  1,960
  2,061
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2,646
  2,694
  2,758
  2,828
  2,904
  2,986
  3,073
  3,167
  3,268
  3,374
  2,989
  3,109
  3,237
  3,372
  3,515
  3,666
  3,826
  3,994
  4,172
  4,359
  4,557
  4,765
  4,984
  5,214
  5,457
  5,712
  5,980
  6,262
  6,559
  6,871
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -221
  -240
  -274
  -308
  -341
  -375
  -408
  -441
  -476
  -510
  -546
  -583
  -620
  -659
  -700
  -741
  -785
  -830
  -877
  -926
  -977
  -1,030
  -1,086
  -1,144
  -1,205
  -1,269
  -1,336
  -1,405
  -1,478
  -1,555
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,425
  2,454
  2,484
  2,520
  2,563
  2,611
  2,666
  2,726
  2,792
  2,864
  2,443
  2,527
  2,617
  2,713
  2,816
  2,925
  3,041
  3,165
  3,295
  3,434
  3,580
  3,734
  3,898
  4,070
  4,251
  4,443
  4,645
  4,857
  5,081
  5,316
Discount rate, %
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,271
  2,138
  1,999
  1,861
  1,723
  1,585
  1,448
  1,312
  1,180
  1,051
  769
  675
  585
  501
  423
  353
  289
  233
  185
  144
  110
  82
  60
  43
  30
  20
  13
  9
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) is a financial services technology company. The Company operates through three segments: Integrated Financial Solutions (IFS), Global Financial Solutions (GFS), and Corporate and Other. The IFS segment is focused on serving the North American regional and community bank and savings institutions market for transaction and account processing, payment solutions, channel solutions, digital channels, risk and compliance solutions, and services. The GFS segment is focused on serving the financial institutions and/or international financial institutions with a range of capital markets and asset management and insurance solutions, as well as banking and payments solutions and consulting and transformation services. Its business solutions in Corporate and Other segment include Public Sector and Education, Global Commercial Services and Retail Check Processing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fidelity National Information Services, (FIS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 62.4
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 40.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 48.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 104.2%
Total Debt to Equity 107.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
EBITDA Margin 26.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.7%
Operating Margin 14%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Net Profit Margin 6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Effective Tax Rate 35%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Payout Ratio 60%

FIS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8423 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fidelity National Information Services, . The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Fidelity National Information Services, . You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for FIS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fidelity National Information Services, , is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fidelity National Information Services, .
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fidelity National Information Services, .

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fidelity National Information Services, . In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIS are equal to 119.3%.

Life of production assets of 13.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fidelity National Information Services, operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIS is equal to 2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10215 million for Fidelity National Information Services, - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 322.924 million for Fidelity National Information Services, is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fidelity National Information Services, at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $34.9 billion.

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