Intrinsic value of Fitbit - FIT

Previous Close

$5.53

  Intrinsic Value

$45.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+731%

Previous close

$5.53

 
Intrinsic value

$45.95

 
Up/down potential

+731%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.74
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
Revenue, $m
  2,169
  2,531
  2,924
  3,348
  3,801
  4,282
  4,792
  5,330
  5,895
  6,486
  7,105
  7,750
  8,422
  9,121
  9,848
  10,604
  11,390
  12,207
  13,055
  13,937
  14,854
  15,808
  16,801
  17,835
  18,911
  20,033
  21,203
  22,424
  23,698
  25,028
  26,417
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,057
  2,376
  2,719
  3,086
  3,477
  3,890
  4,326
  4,784
  5,263
  5,764
  6,282
  6,827
  7,394
  7,984
  8,597
  9,233
  9,895
  10,583
  11,298
  12,042
  12,815
  13,620
  14,458
  15,330
  16,240
  17,188
  18,178
  19,210
  20,289
  21,415
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,282
  2,057
  2,376
  2,719
  3,086
  3,477
  3,890
  4,326
  4,784
  5,263
  5,764
  6,282
  6,827
  7,394
  7,984
  8,597
  9,233
  9,895
  10,583
  11,298
  12,042
  12,815
  13,620
  14,458
  15,330
  16,240
  17,188
  18,178
  19,210
  20,289
  21,415
Operating income, $m
  -112
  474
  549
  629
  715
  806
  902
  1,004
  1,111
  1,223
  1,340
  1,467
  1,595
  1,727
  1,865
  2,008
  2,157
  2,311
  2,472
  2,639
  2,813
  2,993
  3,181
  3,377
  3,581
  3,793
  4,015
  4,246
  4,487
  4,739
  5,002
EBITDA, $m
  -74
  498
  575
  659
  748
  843
  943
  1,049
  1,160
  1,276
  1,398
  1,525
  1,657
  1,795
  1,938
  2,086
  2,241
  2,402
  2,569
  2,742
  2,923
  3,110
  3,306
  3,509
  3,721
  3,942
  4,172
  4,412
  4,663
  4,924
  5,198
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  5
  10
  16
  22
  28
  35
  42
  49
  57
  65
  74
  83
  92
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  181
  194
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  285
  303
Earnings before tax, $m
  -109
  474
  544
  619
  699
  784
  874
  969
  1,069
  1,174
  1,283
  1,402
  1,521
  1,644
  1,773
  1,906
  2,045
  2,189
  2,339
  2,495
  2,657
  2,825
  3,001
  3,183
  3,373
  3,572
  3,778
  3,994
  4,219
  4,454
  4,699
Tax expense, $m
  -6
  128
  147
  167
  189
  212
  236
  262
  289
  317
  346
  379
  411
  444
  479
  515
  552
  591
  632
  674
  717
  763
  810
  859
  911
  964
  1,020
  1,078
  1,139
  1,203
  1,269
Net income, $m
  -103
  346
  397
  452
  510
  572
  638
  708
  781
  857
  937
  1,023
  1,110
  1,200
  1,294
  1,392
  1,493
  1,598
  1,707
  1,821
  1,939
  2,062
  2,190
  2,324
  2,463
  2,607
  2,758
  2,915
  3,080
  3,251
  3,430

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  706
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,820
  1,300
  1,502
  1,719
  1,952
  2,199
  2,461
  2,738
  3,028
  3,331
  3,649
  3,980
  4,326
  4,685
  5,058
  5,447
  5,850
  6,269
  6,705
  7,158
  7,629
  8,119
  8,629
  9,160
  9,713
  10,289
  10,890
  11,517
  12,171
  12,854
  13,568
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,114
  1,300
  1,502
  1,719
  1,952
  2,199
  2,461
  2,738
  3,028
  3,331
  3,649
  3,980
  4,326
  4,685
  5,058
  5,447
  5,850
  6,269
  6,705
  7,158
  7,629
  8,119
  8,629
  9,160
  9,713
  10,289
  10,890
  11,517
  12,171
  12,854
  13,568
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.948
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
Average production assets, $m
  81
  94
  108
  124
  141
  158
  177
  197
  218
  240
  263
  287
  312
  337
  364
  392
  421
  452
  483
  516
  550
  585
  622
  660
  700
  741
  785
  830
  877
  926
  977
Working capital, $m
  719
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  46
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
Total debt, $m
  0
  137
  286
  446
  618
  800
  993
  1,197
  1,410
  1,634
  1,868
  2,113
  2,367
  2,632
  2,907
  3,193
  3,491
  3,800
  4,121
  4,455
  4,802
  5,163
  5,539
  5,930
  6,338
  6,762
  7,205
  7,667
  8,149
  8,653
  9,179
Total liabilities, $m
  822
  958
  1,107
  1,267
  1,439
  1,621
  1,814
  2,018
  2,231
  2,455
  2,689
  2,934
  3,188
  3,453
  3,728
  4,014
  4,312
  4,621
  4,942
  5,276
  5,623
  5,984
  6,360
  6,751
  7,159
  7,583
  8,026
  8,488
  8,970
  9,474
  10,000
Total equity, $m
  999
  342
  395
  452
  513
  578
  647
  720
  796
  876
  960
  1,047
  1,138
  1,232
  1,330
  1,432
  1,539
  1,649
  1,763
  1,883
  2,007
  2,135
  2,269
  2,409
  2,555
  2,706
  2,864
  3,029
  3,201
  3,381
  3,568
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,821
  1,300
  1,502
  1,719
  1,952
  2,199
  2,461
  2,738
  3,027
  3,331
  3,649
  3,981
  4,326
  4,685
  5,058
  5,446
  5,851
  6,270
  6,705
  7,159
  7,630
  8,119
  8,629
  9,160
  9,714
  10,289
  10,890
  11,517
  12,171
  12,855
  13,568
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.400
  0.720
  0.990
  1.200
  1.380
  1.530
  1.660
  1.770
  1.870
  1.950
  2.020
  2.080
  2.140
  2.190
  2.230
  2.270
  2.300
  2.340
  2.370
  2.390
  2.420
  2.440
  2.460
  2.480
  2.500
  2.520
  2.530
  2.550
  2.560
  2.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -103
  346
  397
  452
  510
  572
  638
  708
  781
  857
  937
  1,023
  1,110
  1,200
  1,294
  1,392
  1,493
  1,598
  1,707
  1,821
  1,939
  2,062
  2,190
  2,324
  2,463
  2,607
  2,758
  2,915
  3,080
  3,251
  3,430
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
Funds from operations, $m
  307
  370
  424
  482
  543
  609
  679
  752
  829
  910
  994
  1,081
  1,172
  1,268
  1,367
  1,470
  1,577
  1,688
  1,804
  1,924
  2,049
  2,179
  2,315
  2,456
  2,602
  2,755
  2,915
  3,081
  3,255
  3,436
  3,626
Change in working capital, $m
  197
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  110
  368
  421
  479
  541
  606
  676
  749
  826
  906
  991
  1,077
  1,168
  1,264
  1,363
  1,465
  1,572
  1,684
  1,799
  1,919
  2,044
  2,174
  2,309
  2,449
  2,596
  2,749
  2,908
  3,074
  3,247
  3,428
  3,618
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -185
New CAPEX, $m
  -79
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -393
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
Free cash flow, $m
  -283
  339
  388
  442
  499
  560
  625
  694
  766
  841
  920
  1,001
  1,086
  1,175
  1,268
  1,365
  1,465
  1,569
  1,677
  1,790
  1,907
  2,028
  2,155
  2,287
  2,424
  2,567
  2,716
  2,872
  3,034
  3,204
  3,381
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  137
  149
  160
  171
  182
  193
  203
  214
  224
  234
  244
  254
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  347
  361
  376
  391
  408
  425
  443
  462
  482
  503
  526
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  49
  137
  149
  160
  171
  182
  193
  203
  214
  224
  234
  244
  254
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  347
  361
  376
  391
  408
  425
  443
  462
  482
  503
  526
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -235
  476
  537
  602
  671
  743
  818
  897
  979
  1,065
  1,154
  1,245
  1,341
  1,440
  1,543
  1,651
  1,762
  1,878
  1,998
  2,124
  2,254
  2,390
  2,531
  2,678
  2,832
  2,992
  3,159
  3,334
  3,517
  3,707
  3,907
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -188
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  706
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,133
  484
  545
  609
  678
  749
  824
  903
  985
  1,070
  1,158
  1,250
  1,346
  1,445
  1,549
  1,656
  1,768
  1,884
  2,005
  2,130
  2,261
  2,397
  2,539
  2,686
  2,840
  3,001
  3,169
  3,344
  3,528
  3,719
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,086
  443
  474
  502
  525
  544
  557
  564
  566
  561
  550
  533
  512
  485
  455
  421
  385
  347
  309
  271
  234
  199
  166
  137
  110
  88
  68
  52
  39
  28
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fitbit, Inc. is a provider of health and fitness devices. The Company's platform combines connected health and fitness devices with software and services, including an online dashboard and mobile applications, data analytics, motivational and social tools, personalized insights and virtual coaching through customized fitness plans and interactive workouts. It offers various fitness devices, including Fitbit Zip, Fitbit One, Fitbit Flex, Fitbit Flex 2, Fitbit Charge, Fitbit Charge 2, Fitbit Blaze, Fitbit Charge HR, Fitbit Surge, Fitbit Accessories and Aria. Its platform includes wearable connected health and fitness trackers, which are wrist-based and clippable devices that automatically track users daily steps, calories burned, distance traveled, and active minutes and display real-time feedback. Its trackers also measure sleep duration and quality, and its products track heart rate and global positioning system-based information. It also offers a wireless fidelity connected scale.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fitbit (FIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12.1
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 154.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 58.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -108
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Total Capital -10.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.2%
Return On Equity -10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.2%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.2%
EBITDA Margin -3.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin -5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin -4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 5.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

FIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2169 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fitbit. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fitbit. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fitbit, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fitbit.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Fitbit.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fitbit. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIT are equal to 3.7%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fitbit operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIT is equal to 0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $999 million for Fitbit - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 245.184 million for Fitbit is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fitbit at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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Financial statements of FIT
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