Intrinsic value of Fitbit - FIT

Previous Close

$4.62

  Intrinsic Value

$0.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$4.62

 
Intrinsic value

$0.88

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,648
  1,686
  1,729
  1,778
  1,832
  1,891
  1,955
  2,025
  2,100
  2,180
  2,267
  2,359
  2,457
  2,561
  2,671
  2,788
  2,912
  3,043
  3,182
  3,328
  3,482
  3,645
  3,816
  3,997
  4,187
  4,388
  4,598
  4,820
  5,054
  5,299
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,386
  1,417
  1,454
  1,494
  1,539
  1,589
  1,643
  1,701
  1,764
  1,831
  1,896
  1,973
  2,055
  2,142
  2,234
  2,332
  2,436
  2,546
  2,661
  2,784
  2,913
  3,049
  3,192
  3,343
  3,502
  3,670
  3,846
  4,032
  4,227
  4,433
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  478
  489
  500
  511
  522
  533
  545
  557
  569
  582
  595
  608
  621
  635
  649
  663
  678
  692
  708
  723
  739
  755
  772
  789
  806
  824
  842
  861
  880
  899
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,864
  1,906
  1,954
  2,005
  2,061
  2,122
  2,188
  2,258
  2,333
  2,413
  2,491
  2,581
  2,676
  2,777
  2,883
  2,995
  3,114
  3,238
  3,369
  3,507
  3,652
  3,804
  3,964
  4,132
  4,308
  4,494
  4,688
  4,893
  5,107
  5,332
Operating income, $m
  -216
  -220
  -224
  -227
  -230
  -231
  -233
  -233
  -233
  -233
  -224
  -222
  -219
  -216
  -212
  -207
  -201
  -195
  -187
  -179
  -170
  -159
  -148
  -135
  -122
  -107
  -90
  -72
  -53
  -32
EBITDA, $m
  -182
  -186
  -189
  -191
  -193
  -194
  -194
  -193
  -192
  -190
  -188
  -184
  -180
  -175
  -169
  -162
  -155
  -146
  -136
  -126
  -114
  -101
  -87
  -71
  -55
  -36
  -17
  5
  28
  52
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
Earnings before tax, $m
  -216
  -221
  -226
  -230
  -234
  -237
  -240
  -242
  -244
  -245
  -238
  -238
  -238
  -237
  -236
  -234
  -231
  -228
  -223
  -219
  -213
  -207
  -199
  -191
  -182
  -172
  -160
  -148
  -134
  -119
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -216
  -221
  -226
  -230
  -234
  -237
  -240
  -242
  -244
  -245
  -238
  -238
  -238
  -237
  -236
  -234
  -231
  -228
  -223
  -219
  -213
  -207
  -199
  -191
  -182
  -172
  -160
  -148
  -134
  -119

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,614
  1,651
  1,693
  1,741
  1,794
  1,852
  1,915
  1,983
  2,057
  2,136
  2,220
  2,310
  2,406
  2,508
  2,616
  2,731
  2,852
  2,981
  3,116
  3,259
  3,411
  3,570
  3,738
  3,915
  4,101
  4,297
  4,504
  4,721
  4,950
  5,190
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,614
  1,651
  1,693
  1,741
  1,794
  1,852
  1,915
  1,983
  2,057
  2,136
  2,220
  2,310
  2,406
  2,508
  2,616
  2,731
  2,852
  2,981
  3,116
  3,259
  3,411
  3,570
  3,738
  3,915
  4,101
  4,297
  4,504
  4,721
  4,950
  5,190
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
  1.021
Average production assets, $m
  132
  135
  138
  142
  147
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  255
  266
  279
  292
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  404
  424
Working capital, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Total debt, $m
  15
  33
  53
  76
  101
  129
  159
  192
  227
  265
  305
  348
  394
  443
  495
  550
  608
  670
  735
  803
  876
  952
  1,032
  1,117
  1,206
  1,300
  1,399
  1,503
  1,613
  1,728
Total liabilities, $m
  773
  791
  811
  834
  859
  887
  917
  950
  985
  1,023
  1,063
  1,107
  1,153
  1,201
  1,253
  1,308
  1,366
  1,428
  1,493
  1,561
  1,634
  1,710
  1,790
  1,875
  1,964
  2,058
  2,157
  2,261
  2,371
  2,486
Total equity, $m
  841
  860
  882
  907
  935
  965
  998
  1,033
  1,072
  1,113
  1,157
  1,204
  1,254
  1,307
  1,363
  1,423
  1,486
  1,553
  1,624
  1,698
  1,777
  1,860
  1,947
  2,040
  2,137
  2,239
  2,347
  2,460
  2,579
  2,704
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,614
  1,651
  1,693
  1,741
  1,794
  1,852
  1,915
  1,983
  2,057
  2,136
  2,220
  2,311
  2,407
  2,508
  2,616
  2,731
  2,852
  2,981
  3,117
  3,259
  3,411
  3,570
  3,737
  3,915
  4,101
  4,297
  4,504
  4,721
  4,950
  5,190
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.110
  0.130
  0.160
  0.190
  0.210
  0.240
  0.260
  0.290
  0.310
  0.340
  0.360
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -216
  -221
  -226
  -230
  -234
  -237
  -240
  -242
  -244
  -245
  -238
  -238
  -238
  -237
  -236
  -234
  -231
  -228
  -223
  -219
  -213
  -207
  -199
  -191
  -182
  -172
  -160
  -148
  -134
  -119
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
Funds from operations, $m
  -182
  -187
  -191
  -194
  -197
  -199
  -201
  -202
  -203
  -203
  -202
  -201
  -199
  -196
  -193
  -189
  -184
  -179
  -173
  -165
  -157
  -148
  -138
  -127
  -115
  -101
  -87
  -71
  -53
  -35
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -183
  -187
  -191
  -194
  -197
  -199
  -201
  -202
  -203
  -203
  -202
  -201
  -199
  -196
  -193
  -189
  -185
  -179
  -173
  -166
  -158
  -149
  -139
  -127
  -115
  -102
  -87
  -71
  -54
  -35
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
Free cash flow, $m
  -211
  -216
  -221
  -226
  -230
  -233
  -236
  -239
  -241
  -243
  -244
  -244
  -245
  -244
  -243
  -241
  -239
  -236
  -233
  -228
  -223
  -217
  -211
  -203
  -194
  -185
  -174
  -163
  -150
  -136
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  233
  241
  248
  255
  261
  267
  272
  277
  282
  286
  282
  285
  288
  290
  292
  293
  294
  294
  294
  293
  292
  290
  287
  283
  279
  274
  268
  261
  253
  245
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  248
  259
  268
  278
  286
  295
  302
  310
  317
  324
  322
  328
  334
  339
  344
  348
  352
  355
  359
  362
  364
  366
  367
  368
  368
  368
  367
  365
  363
  360
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -233
  -241
  -248
  -255
  -261
  -267
  -272
  -277
  -282
  -286
  -282
  -285
  -288
  -290
  -292
  -293
  -294
  -294
  -294
  -293
  -292
  -290
  -287
  -283
  -279
  -274
  -268
  -261
  -253
  -245
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -196
  -199
  -201
  -203
  -205
  -206
  -206
  -206
  -206
  -205
  -203
  -201
  -199
  -195
  -191
  -186
  -181
  -175
  -168
  -160
  -151
  -141
  -130
  -118
  -105
  -91
  -75
  -59
  -40
  -20
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -188
  -182
  -175
  -167
  -159
  -149
  -139
  -129
  -118
  -107
  -97
  -86
  -76
  -66
  -56
  -47
  -39
  -32
  -26
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  80.9
  65.4
  52.7
  42.5
  34.3
  27.7
  22.4
  18.2
  14.8
  12.1
  10.0
  8.3
  6.9
  5.8
  4.9
  4.1
  3.5
  3.0
  2.6
  2.3
  2.0
  1.8
  1.6
  1.4
  1.2
  1.1
  1.0
  0.9
  0.9
  0.8

Fitbit, Inc. is a provider of health and fitness devices. The Company's platform combines connected health and fitness devices with software and services, including an online dashboard and mobile applications, data analytics, motivational and social tools, personalized insights and virtual coaching through customized fitness plans and interactive workouts. It offers various fitness devices, including Fitbit Zip, Fitbit One, Fitbit Flex, Fitbit Flex 2, Fitbit Charge, Fitbit Charge 2, Fitbit Blaze, Fitbit Charge HR, Fitbit Surge, Fitbit Accessories and Aria. Its platform includes wearable connected health and fitness trackers, which are wrist-based and clippable devices that automatically track users daily steps, calories burned, distance traveled, and active minutes and display real-time feedback. Its trackers also measure sleep duration and quality, and its products track heart rate and global positioning system-based information. It also offers a wireless fidelity connected scale.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fitbit (FIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -10.1
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 154.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 58.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -108
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Total Capital -10.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.2%
Return On Equity -10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.2%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.2%
EBITDA Margin -3.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin -5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin -4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 5.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

FIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1615.519 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fitbit. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Fitbit. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fitbit, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fitbit.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $468 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fitbit.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fitbit. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIT are equal to 8%.

Life of production assets of 3.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fitbit operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIT is equal to 0.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $823.963 million for Fitbit - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 214.09 million for Fitbit is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fitbit at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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