Intrinsic value of Five9 - FIVN

Previous Close

$41.41

  Intrinsic Value

$4.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$41.41

 
Intrinsic value

$4.01

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.10
  25.79
  23.71
  21.84
  20.16
  18.64
  17.28
  16.05
  14.94
  13.95
  13.05
  12.25
  11.52
  10.87
  10.28
  9.76
  9.28
  8.85
  8.47
  8.12
  7.81
  7.53
  7.27
  7.05
  6.84
  6.66
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.09
Revenue, $m
  256
  323
  399
  486
  584
  693
  813
  943
  1,084
  1,236
  1,397
  1,568
  1,749
  1,939
  2,139
  2,347
  2,565
  2,792
  3,028
  3,274
  3,530
  3,796
  4,072
  4,359
  4,657
  4,967
  5,290
  5,625
  5,975
  6,338
Variable operating expenses, $m
  252
  317
  392
  477
  573
  680
  797
  925
  1,063
  1,211
  1,367
  1,535
  1,711
  1,898
  2,093
  2,297
  2,510
  2,732
  2,964
  3,204
  3,454
  3,714
  3,985
  4,265
  4,557
  4,861
  5,176
  5,505
  5,846
  6,202
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
Total operating expenses, $m
  261
  326
  402
  487
  583
  690
  807
  936
  1,074
  1,222
  1,378
  1,547
  1,723
  1,910
  2,105
  2,310
  2,523
  2,745
  2,978
  3,218
  3,468
  3,729
  4,000
  4,280
  4,573
  4,877
  5,192
  5,522
  5,863
  6,219
Operating income, $m
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
  1
  3
  6
  8
  11
  14
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
EBITDA, $m
  2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  84
  93
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  253
  269
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  104
  111
  119
  128
  136
  145
  155
  164
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  118
  148
  183
  223
  268
  318
  373
  433
  498
  567
  641
  720
  803
  890
  981
  1,077
  1,177
  1,281
  1,390
  1,503
  1,620
  1,742
  1,869
  2,000
  2,137
  2,280
  2,428
  2,582
  2,742
  2,909
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  118
  148
  183
  223
  268
  318
  373
  433
  498
  567
  641
  720
  803
  890
  981
  1,077
  1,177
  1,281
  1,390
  1,503
  1,620
  1,742
  1,869
  2,000
  2,137
  2,280
  2,428
  2,582
  2,742
  2,909
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.169
  2.182
  2.180
  2.179
  2.179
  2.179
  2.180
  2.178
  2.177
  2.180
  2.179
  2.178
  2.178
  2.179
  2.180
  2.179
  2.179
  2.180
  2.178
  2.178
  2.179
  2.179
  2.179
  2.180
  2.179
  2.179
  2.179
  2.179
  2.179
  2.179
Average production assets, $m
  31
  38
  47
  58
  70
  82
  97
  112
  129
  147
  166
  187
  208
  231
  254
  279
  305
  332
  360
  390
  420
  452
  485
  519
  554
  591
  629
  669
  711
  754
Working capital, $m
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -110
  -120
  -130
  -141
  -152
  -163
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -227
  -242
  -257
  -273
Total debt, $m
  68
  92
  121
  153
  190
  230
  275
  323
  376
  432
  492
  555
  623
  693
  767
  845
  926
  1,010
  1,098
  1,190
  1,285
  1,383
  1,486
  1,593
  1,704
  1,819
  1,939
  2,063
  2,193
  2,328
Total liabilities, $m
  95
  120
  148
  181
  217
  258
  302
  351
  403
  459
  519
  583
  650
  721
  795
  873
  953
  1,038
  1,126
  1,217
  1,312
  1,411
  1,514
  1,620
  1,731
  1,846
  1,966
  2,091
  2,221
  2,356
Total equity, $m
  22
  28
  35
  42
  51
  60
  71
  82
  95
  108
  122
  137
  153
  169
  186
  205
  224
  243
  264
  286
  308
  331
  355
  380
  406
  433
  461
  490
  521
  553
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  117
  148
  183
  223
  268
  318
  373
  433
  498
  567
  641
  720
  803
  890
  981
  1,078
  1,177
  1,281
  1,390
  1,503
  1,620
  1,742
  1,869
  2,000
  2,137
  2,279
  2,427
  2,581
  2,742
  2,909
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.030
  3.280
  3.470
  3.610
  3.720
  3.810
  3.870
  3.930
  3.970
  4.010
  4.040
  4.060
  4.080
  4.100
  4.110
  4.130
  4.140
  4.150
  4.160
  4.170
  4.170
  4.180
  4.190
  4.190
  4.200
  4.200
  4.200
  4.210
  4.210
  4.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  19
  22
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  99
  105
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -185
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  34
  40
  44
  49
  55
  60
  67
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  213
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  40
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  39
  12
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  19
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.8
  87.1
  82.5
  78.5
  75.2
  72.3
  69.8
  67.5
  65.5
  63.6
  62.0
  60.5
  59.2
  57.9
  56.7
  55.5
  54.5
  53.4
  52.5
  51.5
  50.6
  49.8
  49.0
  48.2
  47.4
  46.7
  46.0
  45.3
  44.6
  43.9

Five9 Inc. (Five9) is a provider of cloud software for contact centers. The Company's purpose-built Virtual Contact Center (VCC) cloud platform delivers a suite of applications that enable the breadth of contact center-related customer service, sales and marketing functions. The Company's solution, which consists of its VCC cloud platform and applications, allows simultaneous management and optimization of customer interactions across voice, chat, e-mail, Web, social media and mobile channels, either directly or through its application programming interfaces (APIs). The Company's VCC cloud platform matches each customer interaction with an appropriate agent resource and delivers relevant customer data to the agent in real-time through integrations with adjacent enterprise applications, such as customer relationship management (CRM) software, to optimize the customer experience and agent productivity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Five9 (FIVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -184.1
Price to Sales 13.6
Price to Book 73.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 315.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 368.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 130%
Total Debt to Equity 153.3%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Return On Total Capital -16.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.9%
Return On Equity -42.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -104.7%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.9%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.9%
Operating Margin -4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Net Profit Margin -7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

FIVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $200.225 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Five9. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Five9. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Five9, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Five9.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $9 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.5% for Five9.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Five9. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIVN are equal to 11.9%.

Life of production assets of 3.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Five9 operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIVN is equal to -4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $46.838 million for Five9 - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.684 million for Five9 is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Five9 at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Five9 Stock Popped Today   [Nov-07-18 04:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Five9: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:19PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Buy These 5 Low-Beta Stocks to Brave Market Volatility   [Aug-20-18 05:40PM  InvestorPlace]
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▶ Stock Market Closes Higher As Tesla Adds Drama In Final Hours   [04:23PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Why Shares of Five9 Inc. Popped Today   [01:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Five9: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five9, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In Five9 Inc (NASDAQ:FIVN)?   [Jun-27-18 10:40AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Five9 Announces Upcoming Conference Participation   [May-04-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Five9 Shares Popped Today   [01:37PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Five9: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 05:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five9 Inc (NASDAQ:FIVN): Time For A Financial Health Check   [Apr-11-18 07:03PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Five9 Joins Industry Leaders at Enterprise Connect 2018   [Mar-08-18 08:07AM  Business Wire]
▶ Five9 Announces Upcoming Conference Participation   [Feb-22-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Five9 reports 4Q loss   [Feb-21-18 06:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five9, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Analyst Reports Recognize Five9   [Jan-30-18 08:09AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 High-Growth Stocks That Could Soar   [Jan-14-18 06:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Five9 beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-08-17 05:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five9, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:40PM  ACCESSWIRE]

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