Intrinsic value of National Beverage - FIZZ

Previous Close

$109.07

  Intrinsic Value

$170.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+57%

Previous close

$109.07

 
Intrinsic value

$170.84

 
Up/down potential

+57%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIZZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.30
  16.07
  14.96
  13.97
  13.07
  12.26
  11.54
  10.88
  10.29
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.47
  8.13
  7.81
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
Revenue, $m
  970
  1,126
  1,294
  1,475
  1,668
  1,873
  2,089
  2,316
  2,554
  2,804
  3,064
  3,336
  3,618
  3,912
  4,218
  4,536
  4,866
  5,209
  5,566
  5,937
  6,322
  6,723
  7,141
  7,576
  8,029
  8,501
  8,994
  9,508
  10,045
  10,605
Variable operating expenses, $m
  419
  486
  558
  636
  719
  807
  900
  998
  1,100
  1,208
  1,318
  1,435
  1,557
  1,683
  1,815
  1,951
  2,093
  2,241
  2,394
  2,554
  2,720
  2,892
  3,072
  3,259
  3,454
  3,657
  3,869
  4,090
  4,321
  4,562
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  322
  329
  336
  344
  351
  359
  367
  375
  383
  392
  400
  409
  418
  427
  437
  446
  456
  466
  476
  487
  497
  508
  520
  531
  543
  555
  567
  579
  592
  605
Total operating expenses, $m
  741
  815
  894
  980
  1,070
  1,166
  1,267
  1,373
  1,483
  1,600
  1,718
  1,844
  1,975
  2,110
  2,252
  2,397
  2,549
  2,707
  2,870
  3,041
  3,217
  3,400
  3,592
  3,790
  3,997
  4,212
  4,436
  4,669
  4,913
  5,167
Operating income, $m
  229
  311
  400
  495
  598
  707
  822
  943
  1,071
  1,205
  1,346
  1,492
  1,644
  1,802
  1,967
  2,138
  2,317
  2,502
  2,695
  2,896
  3,105
  3,323
  3,549
  3,786
  4,032
  4,290
  4,558
  4,838
  5,131
  5,438
EBITDA, $m
  240
  323
  414
  511
  615
  726
  843
  967
  1,097
  1,233
  1,375
  1,523
  1,678
  1,839
  2,007
  2,182
  2,363
  2,552
  2,748
  2,952
  3,165
  3,387
  3,617
  3,858
  4,109
  4,370
  4,643
  4,929
  5,227
  5,539
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  65
Earnings before tax, $m
  229
  310
  398
  492
  593
  701
  814
  934
  1,060
  1,192
  1,332
  1,476
  1,626
  1,782
  1,945
  2,114
  2,290
  2,474
  2,664
  2,862
  3,069
  3,284
  3,508
  3,741
  3,984
  4,238
  4,504
  4,781
  5,070
  5,372
Tax expense, $m
  62
  84
  107
  133
  160
  189
  220
  252
  286
  322
  360
  398
  439
  481
  525
  571
  618
  668
  719
  773
  829
  887
  947
  1,010
  1,076
  1,144
  1,216
  1,291
  1,369
  1,451
Net income, $m
  167
  226
  290
  359
  433
  511
  594
  682
  774
  870
  972
  1,077
  1,187
  1,301
  1,420
  1,543
  1,672
  1,806
  1,945
  2,090
  2,240
  2,397
  2,561
  2,731
  2,909
  3,094
  3,288
  3,490
  3,701
  3,922

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  358
  415
  477
  544
  615
  690
  770
  854
  942
  1,033
  1,129
  1,230
  1,334
  1,442
  1,555
  1,672
  1,794
  1,920
  2,052
  2,188
  2,330
  2,478
  2,632
  2,792
  2,959
  3,134
  3,315
  3,505
  3,702
  3,909
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  358
  415
  477
  544
  615
  690
  770
  854
  942
  1,033
  1,129
  1,230
  1,334
  1,442
  1,555
  1,672
  1,794
  1,920
  2,052
  2,188
  2,330
  2,478
  2,632
  2,792
  2,959
  3,134
  3,315
  3,505
  3,702
  3,909
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.709
  2.713
  2.713
  2.711
  2.712
  2.714
  2.713
  2.712
  2.711
  2.714
  2.714
  2.712
  2.712
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.712
  2.713
  2.712
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
  2.713
Average production assets, $m
  92
  107
  123
  140
  158
  178
  198
  220
  243
  266
  291
  317
  344
  372
  401
  431
  462
  495
  529
  564
  601
  639
  678
  720
  763
  808
  854
  903
  954
  1,007
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
Total debt, $m
  19
  40
  62
  86
  111
  138
  166
  196
  227
  260
  294
  330
  367
  405
  446
  487
  531
  576
  622
  671
  722
  774
  829
  886
  946
  1,008
  1,072
  1,140
  1,210
  1,284
Total liabilities, $m
  127
  148
  170
  194
  219
  246
  274
  304
  335
  368
  402
  438
  475
  513
  554
  595
  639
  684
  730
  779
  830
  882
  937
  994
  1,054
  1,116
  1,180
  1,248
  1,318
  1,392
Total equity, $m
  230
  267
  307
  350
  396
  445
  496
  550
  606
  666
  727
  792
  859
  929
  1,001
  1,077
  1,155
  1,237
  1,321
  1,409
  1,501
  1,596
  1,695
  1,798
  1,906
  2,018
  2,135
  2,257
  2,384
  2,517
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  357
  415
  477
  544
  615
  691
  770
  854
  941
  1,034
  1,129
  1,230
  1,334
  1,442
  1,555
  1,672
  1,794
  1,921
  2,051
  2,188
  2,331
  2,478
  2,632
  2,792
  2,960
  3,134
  3,315
  3,505
  3,702
  3,909
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.150
  0.200
  0.240
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644
  0.644

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  167
  226
  290
  359
  433
  511
  594
  682
  774
  870
  972
  1,077
  1,187
  1,301
  1,420
  1,543
  1,672
  1,806
  1,945
  2,090
  2,240
  2,397
  2,561
  2,731
  2,909
  3,094
  3,288
  3,490
  3,701
  3,922
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
Funds from operations, $m
  178
  239
  304
  375
  450
  531
  616
  706
  800
  899
  1,001
  1,109
  1,221
  1,338
  1,460
  1,587
  1,718
  1,855
  1,998
  2,146
  2,300
  2,461
  2,628
  2,803
  2,985
  3,175
  3,373
  3,580
  3,796
  4,023
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  179
  239
  305
  376
  451
  532
  617
  707
  801
  900
  1,003
  1,111
  1,223
  1,340
  1,462
  1,588
  1,720
  1,857
  2,000
  2,148
  2,303
  2,463
  2,631
  2,806
  2,988
  3,178
  3,376
  3,583
  3,800
  4,026
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
Free cash flow, $m
  157
  215
  278
  346
  419
  497
  579
  665
  757
  852
  952
  1,056
  1,165
  1,278
  1,396
  1,518
  1,646
  1,778
  1,916
  2,060
  2,210
  2,365
  2,527
  2,696
  2,873
  3,057
  3,248
  3,449
  3,658
  3,877
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  74
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  74
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  177
  236
  301
  370
  444
  524
  607
  695
  788
  885
  986
  1,091
  1,202
  1,316
  1,436
  1,560
  1,689
  1,823
  1,963
  2,109
  2,260
  2,418
  2,582
  2,753
  2,932
  3,118
  3,313
  3,516
  3,729
  3,951
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  49
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  192
  199
  261
  327
  399
  475
  556
  641
  731
  826
  924
  1,027
  1,135
  1,247
  1,363
  1,484
  1,611
  1,742
  1,879
  2,021
  2,169
  2,323
  2,483
  2,650
  2,825
  3,006
  3,196
  3,394
  3,601
  3,818
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  184
  182
  227
  269
  309
  345
  376
  401
  420
  433
  439
  438
  431
  418
  400
  377
  350
  321
  289
  257
  224
  193
  163
  135
  110
  88
  69
  53
  39
  29
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

National Beverage Corp. is a holding company. The Company develops, produces, markets and sells a diverse portfolio of flavored beverage products primarily in North America. The Company's brands consist of beverages geared to the active and health-conscious consumer (Power+ Brands), including sparkling waters, energy drinks and juices, and carbonated soft drinks in a range of flavors, including regular, sugar-free and reduced calorie options. In addition, the Company produces soft drinks for certain retailers, such as allied brands. The Company's portfolio of Power+ Brands includes LaCroix, LaCroix Curate, LaCroix NiCola and Shasta sparkling water products; Rip It energy drinks and shots, and Everfresh, Everfresh Premier Varietals and Mr. Pure juice and juice-based products. The Company's carbonated soft drinks include Shasta and Faygo, iconic brands. The Company had, as of April 30, 2016, 12 production facilities located near metropolitan markets across the continental United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  National Beverage (FIZZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.5
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 20.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 44.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 50.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 32.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Return On Total Capital 47.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.1%
Return On Equity 47.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.1%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
EBITDA Margin 21.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Net Profit Margin 12.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Payout Ratio 65.4%

FIZZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIZZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $827 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by National Beverage. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of National Beverage. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIZZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIZZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of National Beverage, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of National Beverage.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIZZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 43.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $315 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIZZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for National Beverage.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for National Beverage. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIZZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIZZ are equal to 9.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in National Beverage operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIZZ is equal to -0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $246 million for National Beverage - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47 million for National Beverage is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of National Beverage at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.1 billion.

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