Intrinsic value of Foot Locker - FL

Previous Close

$51.40

  Intrinsic Value

$80.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+56%

Previous close

$51.40

 
Intrinsic value

$80.41

 
Up/down potential

+56%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of FL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,938
  8,120
  8,329
  8,563
  8,823
  9,108
  9,418
  9,754
  10,115
  10,503
  10,919
  11,362
  11,834
  12,335
  12,867
  13,431
  14,028
  14,659
  15,326
  16,030
  16,774
  17,557
  18,383
  19,253
  20,170
  21,135
  22,151
  23,220
  24,344
  25,527
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,913
  7,072
  7,253
  7,456
  7,682
  7,929
  8,199
  8,490
  8,804
  9,141
  9,481
  9,866
  10,276
  10,711
  11,173
  11,663
  12,181
  12,729
  13,309
  13,920
  14,565
  15,246
  15,963
  16,719
  17,515
  18,353
  19,235
  20,163
  21,139
  22,167
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,913
  7,072
  7,253
  7,456
  7,682
  7,929
  8,199
  8,490
  8,804
  9,141
  9,481
  9,866
  10,276
  10,711
  11,173
  11,663
  12,181
  12,729
  13,309
  13,920
  14,565
  15,246
  15,963
  16,719
  17,515
  18,353
  19,235
  20,163
  21,139
  22,167
Operating income, $m
  1,024
  1,048
  1,076
  1,107
  1,141
  1,178
  1,219
  1,263
  1,311
  1,362
  1,437
  1,496
  1,558
  1,624
  1,694
  1,768
  1,847
  1,930
  2,018
  2,110
  2,208
  2,311
  2,420
  2,535
  2,655
  2,782
  2,916
  3,057
  3,205
  3,361
EBITDA, $m
  1,204
  1,231
  1,263
  1,299
  1,338
  1,381
  1,428
  1,479
  1,534
  1,593
  1,656
  1,723
  1,795
  1,871
  1,951
  2,037
  2,127
  2,223
  2,324
  2,431
  2,544
  2,662
  2,788
  2,920
  3,059
  3,205
  3,359
  3,521
  3,692
  3,871
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  7
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  161
  173
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,018
  1,040
  1,066
  1,094
  1,126
  1,161
  1,199
  1,240
  1,285
  1,332
  1,403
  1,458
  1,515
  1,577
  1,642
  1,710
  1,783
  1,861
  1,942
  2,028
  2,119
  2,215
  2,315
  2,422
  2,534
  2,652
  2,776
  2,906
  3,043
  3,188
Tax expense, $m
  275
  281
  288
  295
  304
  314
  324
  335
  347
  360
  379
  394
  409
  426
  443
  462
  482
  502
  524
  548
  572
  598
  625
  654
  684
  716
  749
  785
  822
  861
Net income, $m
  743
  759
  778
  799
  822
  848
  875
  905
  938
  972
  1,024
  1,064
  1,106
  1,151
  1,198
  1,249
  1,302
  1,358
  1,418
  1,480
  1,547
  1,617
  1,690
  1,768
  1,850
  1,936
  2,026
  2,121
  2,222
  2,327

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,803
  3,891
  3,991
  4,103
  4,228
  4,364
  4,513
  4,673
  4,847
  5,033
  5,232
  5,444
  5,670
  5,911
  6,165
  6,436
  6,722
  7,024
  7,344
  7,681
  8,037
  8,413
  8,808
  9,225
  9,665
  10,127
  10,614
  11,126
  11,665
  12,232
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,803
  3,891
  3,991
  4,103
  4,228
  4,364
  4,513
  4,673
  4,847
  5,033
  5,232
  5,444
  5,670
  5,911
  6,165
  6,436
  6,722
  7,024
  7,344
  7,681
  8,037
  8,413
  8,808
  9,225
  9,665
  10,127
  10,614
  11,126
  11,665
  12,232
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
  2.087
Average production assets, $m
  937
  958
  983
  1,010
  1,041
  1,075
  1,111
  1,151
  1,194
  1,239
  1,288
  1,341
  1,396
  1,456
  1,518
  1,585
  1,655
  1,730
  1,809
  1,892
  1,979
  2,072
  2,169
  2,272
  2,380
  2,494
  2,614
  2,740
  2,873
  3,012
Working capital, $m
  1,111
  1,137
  1,166
  1,199
  1,235
  1,275
  1,318
  1,366
  1,416
  1,470
  1,529
  1,591
  1,657
  1,727
  1,801
  1,880
  1,964
  2,052
  2,146
  2,244
  2,348
  2,458
  2,574
  2,695
  2,824
  2,959
  3,101
  3,251
  3,408
  3,574
Total debt, $m
  155
  189
  227
  271
  319
  372
  429
  492
  559
  631
  708
  790
  877
  970
  1,069
  1,174
  1,284
  1,401
  1,525
  1,656
  1,793
  1,939
  2,092
  2,253
  2,423
  2,602
  2,791
  2,989
  3,197
  3,417
Total liabilities, $m
  1,472
  1,506
  1,544
  1,588
  1,636
  1,689
  1,746
  1,809
  1,876
  1,948
  2,025
  2,107
  2,194
  2,287
  2,386
  2,491
  2,601
  2,718
  2,842
  2,973
  3,110
  3,256
  3,409
  3,570
  3,740
  3,919
  4,108
  4,306
  4,514
  4,734
Total equity, $m
  2,331
  2,385
  2,446
  2,515
  2,591
  2,675
  2,766
  2,865
  2,971
  3,085
  3,207
  3,337
  3,476
  3,623
  3,779
  3,945
  4,120
  4,306
  4,502
  4,709
  4,927
  5,157
  5,400
  5,655
  5,924
  6,208
  6,506
  6,820
  7,150
  7,498
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,803
  3,891
  3,990
  4,103
  4,227
  4,364
  4,512
  4,674
  4,847
  5,033
  5,232
  5,444
  5,670
  5,910
  6,165
  6,436
  6,721
  7,024
  7,344
  7,682
  8,037
  8,413
  8,809
  9,225
  9,664
  10,127
  10,614
  11,126
  11,664
  12,232
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  743
  759
  778
  799
  822
  848
  875
  905
  938
  972
  1,024
  1,064
  1,106
  1,151
  1,198
  1,249
  1,302
  1,358
  1,418
  1,480
  1,547
  1,617
  1,690
  1,768
  1,850
  1,936
  2,026
  2,121
  2,222
  2,327
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  179
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  209
  216
  223
  231
  218
  227
  237
  247
  257
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  335
  351
  368
  385
  403
  423
  443
  464
  487
  511
Funds from operations, $m
  922
  942
  965
  991
  1,019
  1,050
  1,084
  1,121
  1,161
  1,203
  1,243
  1,291
  1,343
  1,398
  1,456
  1,517
  1,582
  1,651
  1,724
  1,801
  1,882
  1,968
  2,058
  2,153
  2,253
  2,358
  2,469
  2,586
  2,709
  2,838
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  157
  166
Cash from operations, $m
  900
  917
  936
  958
  983
  1,011
  1,041
  1,074
  1,110
  1,149
  1,185
  1,229
  1,277
  1,327
  1,381
  1,438
  1,499
  1,563
  1,631
  1,702
  1,778
  1,858
  1,942
  2,031
  2,125
  2,223
  2,327
  2,436
  2,551
  2,672
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -155
  -159
  -162
  -167
  -171
  -176
  -182
  -188
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -269
  -281
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -423
  -443
  -464
  -487
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -175
  -181
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -390
  -409
  -427
  -448
  -471
  -493
  -517
  -543
  -569
  -597
  -627
Free cash flow, $m
  725
  736
  749
  764
  781
  800
  822
  846
  872
  901
  926
  959
  994
  1,032
  1,072
  1,114
  1,160
  1,208
  1,259
  1,313
  1,370
  1,430
  1,494
  1,561
  1,631
  1,706
  1,784
  1,867
  1,954
  2,046
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  209
  219
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  209
  219
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  755
  770
  788
  807
  829
  853
  880
  908
  939
  973
  1,003
  1,041
  1,081
  1,124
  1,170
  1,219
  1,270
  1,325
  1,383
  1,443
  1,508
  1,575
  1,647
  1,722
  1,801
  1,885
  1,973
  2,065
  2,163
  2,265
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -45
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -330
  -347
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  233
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  942
  717
  726
  738
  753
  770
  789
  810
  833
  859
  881
  911
  943
  977
  1,014
  1,053
  1,095
  1,140
  1,187
  1,237
  1,289
  1,345
  1,404
  1,466
  1,532
  1,601
  1,674
  1,751
  1,832
  1,918
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  903
  656
  632
  608
  584
  559
  533
  506
  479
  450
  418
  389
  358
  328
  298
  268
  238
  210
  183
  157
  133
  112
  92
  75
  60
  47
  36
  27
  20
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Foot Locker, Inc. is a retailer of shoes and apparel. The Company operates through two segments: Athletic Stores and Direct-to-Customers. The Company is an athletic footwear and apparel retailer, which include businesses, such as include Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Champs Sports, Footaction, Runners Point, Sidestep and SIX:02. The Direct-to-Customers segment is multi-branded and sells directly to customers through Internet and mobile sites and catalogs. The Direct-to-Customers segment operates the Websites for eastbay.com, final-score.com, eastbayteamsales.com and sp24.com. Additionally, this segment includes the Websites, both desktop and mobile, aligned with the brand names of its store banners (footlocker.com, ladyfootlocker.com, six02.com kidsfootlocker.com, champssports.com, footaction.com, footlocker.ca, footlocker.eu, runnerspoint.com and sidestep-shoes.com).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Foot Locker (FL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.2
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 4.7%
Total Debt to Equity 4.7%
Interest Coverage 92
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Return On Total Capital 24.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Return On Equity 25.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
EBITDA Margin 15.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Operating Margin 13%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 33.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 22.1%

FL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7782 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Foot Locker. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Foot Locker. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Foot Locker, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Foot Locker.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Foot Locker.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Foot Locker. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FL are equal to 11.8%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Foot Locker operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FL is equal to 14%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2519 million for Foot Locker - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 116.909 million for Foot Locker is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Foot Locker at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.0 billion.

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