Intrinsic value of Fluidigm - FLDM

Previous Close

$6.95

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$6.95

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
Variable operating expenses, $m
  176
  180
  184
  189
  194
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  219
  227
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  443
  465
  487
  511
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  176
  180
  184
  189
  194
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  219
  227
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  443
  465
  487
  511
Operating income, $m
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
EBITDA, $m
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  11
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Earnings before tax, $m
  -83
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -83
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  263
  269
  276
  283
  292
  301
  312
  323
  335
  348
  361
  376
  392
  408
  426
  445
  464
  485
  507
  531
  555
  581
  608
  637
  668
  700
  733
  769
  806
  845
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  263
  269
  276
  283
  292
  301
  312
  323
  335
  348
  361
  376
  392
  408
  426
  445
  464
  485
  507
  531
  555
  581
  608
  637
  668
  700
  733
  769
  806
  845
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.395
  0.394
  0.395
  0.396
  0.397
  0.395
  0.394
  0.396
  0.397
  0.397
  0.396
  0.396
  0.395
  0.397
  0.397
  0.396
  0.397
  0.396
  0.396
  0.395
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.395
  0.396
  0.396
  0.395
  0.396
  0.396
Average production assets, $m
  197
  201
  206
  212
  219
  226
  233
  242
  251
  260
  271
  282
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  380
  397
  416
  435
  456
  477
  500
  524
  549
  576
  603
  633
Working capital, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total debt, $m
  175
  181
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  306
  322
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
  439
  462
  487
  512
  540
  568
  599
  631
  664
  699
Total liabilities, $m
  236
  242
  248
  255
  263
  271
  281
  291
  301
  313
  325
  338
  353
  367
  383
  400
  418
  437
  457
  478
  500
  523
  548
  574
  601
  630
  660
  692
  725
  760
Total equity, $m
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  262
  269
  276
  283
  292
  301
  312
  323
  334
  348
  361
  376
  392
  408
  426
  444
  464
  486
  508
  531
  556
  581
  609
  638
  668
  700
  733
  769
  806
  844
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.670
  6.730
  6.780
  6.840
  6.910
  6.970
  7.040
  7.110
  7.170
  7.240
  7.310
  7.370
  7.440
  7.500
  7.570
  7.630
  7.680
  7.740
  7.800
  7.850
  7.900
  7.950
  8.000
  8.040
  8.080
  8.130
  8.170
  8.200
  8.240
  8.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -83
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  37
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
Funds from operations, $m
  -46
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -89
Free cash flow, $m
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  108
  84
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  88
  89
  91
  94
  98
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -108
  -84
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -59
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -205
Discount rate, %
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -54
  -52
  -48
  -43
  -39
  -34
  -30
  -26
  -22
  -19
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  8.4
  5.9
  4.1
  2.9
  2.0
  1.4
  1.0
  0.7
  0.5
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
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Fluidigm Corporation creates, manufactures and markets technologies and life science tools focused on the exploration and analysis of single cells, as well as the industrial application of genomics, based upon the Company's core microfluidics and mass cytometry technologies. The Company operates in the development, manufacturing and commercialization of life science tools for the life science and Ag-Bio industries segment. Its products include preparatory instruments, preparatory analytical instruments, analytical instruments, integrated fluidic circuits (IFCs), and assays and reagents. Its preparatory instruments include C1 Single-Cell Auto Prep System, Access Array System, Juno System and IFCs, and Callisto System and IFC. Its analytical instruments include Biomark HD System, EP1 System and Helios/CyTOF 2 System. Its assays and reagents include Delta Gene and SNP Type Assays, and Access Array Target-Specific Primers and Targeted Sequencing Prep Primers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fluidigm (FLDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.7
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -54.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 367.9%
Total Debt to Equity 367.9%
Interest Coverage -12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -20.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Return On Total Capital -27.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Return On Equity -90.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.6%
EBITDA Margin -53.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.3%
Operating Margin -71.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -76.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.2%
Net Profit Margin -73.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55%
Effective Tax Rate 5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $102 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fluidigm. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Fluidigm. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for FLDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fluidigm, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fluidigm.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 169.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fluidigm.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fluidigm. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLDM stock is equal to 8.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLDM are equal to 189.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fluidigm operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLDM is equal to 10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $31 million for Fluidigm - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33 million for Fluidigm is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fluidigm at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fluidigm: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Fluidigm Announces Second Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [Aug-02-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fluidigm to Participate in Upcoming Investor Events   [May-09-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fluidigm: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fluidigm Announces Exchange of Convertible Notes   [Mar-02-18 07:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fluidigm reports 4Q loss   [Feb-08-18 09:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fluidigm to Report Q4 and Full Year 2017 Financial Results   [Jan-25-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : January 1, 2018   [Jan-01-18 11:35AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 01:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : December 7, 2017   [Dec-07-17 01:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 01:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Fluidigm reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 06:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : October 25, 2017   [Oct-25-17 09:58AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Fluidigm to Unveil High-Parameter Tissue Imaging System   [Oct-18-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:31AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : August 25, 2017   [Aug-25-17 04:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Fluidigm reports 2Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 03:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Fluidigm reports 1Q loss   [May-05-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
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