Intrinsic value of Fluidigm Corporation - FLDM

Previous Close

$11.04

  Intrinsic Value

$0.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$11.04

 
Intrinsic value

$0.07

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.00
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  119
  138
  159
  180
  204
  228
  254
  281
  310
  340
  371
  404
  438
  473
  509
  547
  587
  628
  671
  715
  761
  809
  859
  912
  966
  1,023
  1,082
  1,143
  1,208
  1,275
Variable operating expenses, $m
  202
  234
  268
  305
  344
  385
  429
  475
  523
  574
  625
  680
  737
  796
  858
  922
  989
  1,058
  1,130
  1,205
  1,282
  1,363
  1,448
  1,535
  1,627
  1,722
  1,822
  1,925
  2,034
  2,147
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  202
  234
  268
  305
  344
  385
  429
  475
  523
  574
  625
  680
  737
  796
  858
  922
  989
  1,058
  1,130
  1,205
  1,282
  1,363
  1,448
  1,535
  1,627
  1,722
  1,822
  1,925
  2,034
  2,147
Operating income, $m
  -83
  -96
  -110
  -125
  -140
  -157
  -175
  -194
  -213
  -234
  -254
  -276
  -299
  -323
  -349
  -375
  -402
  -430
  -459
  -489
  -521
  -554
  -588
  -624
  -661
  -700
  -740
  -782
  -826
  -872
EBITDA, $m
  -77
  -89
  -102
  -116
  -131
  -147
  -164
  -182
  -200
  -219
  -239
  -260
  -282
  -305
  -329
  -353
  -379
  -405
  -433
  -461
  -491
  -522
  -555
  -588
  -623
  -660
  -698
  -738
  -779
  -822
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  11
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
Earnings before tax, $m
  -93
  -107
  -123
  -141
  -159
  -179
  -200
  -222
  -245
  -269
  -292
  -318
  -346
  -374
  -403
  -434
  -466
  -498
  -533
  -568
  -605
  -644
  -684
  -726
  -769
  -815
  -862
  -912
  -963
  -1,017
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -93
  -107
  -123
  -141
  -159
  -179
  -200
  -222
  -245
  -269
  -292
  -318
  -346
  -374
  -403
  -434
  -466
  -498
  -533
  -568
  -605
  -644
  -684
  -726
  -769
  -815
  -862
  -912
  -963
  -1,017

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  301
  349
  400
  455
  514
  576
  642
  711
  783
  858
  937
  1,019
  1,105
  1,194
  1,286
  1,382
  1,482
  1,586
  1,694
  1,806
  1,923
  2,044
  2,170
  2,302
  2,439
  2,582
  2,731
  2,887
  3,049
  3,219
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  301
  349
  400
  455
  514
  576
  642
  711
  783
  858
  937
  1,019
  1,105
  1,194
  1,286
  1,382
  1,482
  1,586
  1,694
  1,806
  1,923
  2,044
  2,170
  2,302
  2,439
  2,582
  2,731
  2,887
  3,049
  3,219
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.395
  0.395
  0.398
  0.396
  0.397
  0.396
  0.396
  0.395
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
Average production assets, $m
  121
  140
  161
  183
  207
  232
  258
  286
  315
  345
  377
  410
  444
  480
  517
  556
  596
  637
  681
  726
  773
  822
  872
  925
  980
  1,038
  1,098
  1,160
  1,226
  1,294
Working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
Total debt, $m
  210
  253
  299
  349
  401
  457
  516
  578
  643
  711
  782
  856
  933
  1,013
  1,096
  1,183
  1,273
  1,366
  1,463
  1,564
  1,669
  1,778
  1,892
  2,011
  2,134
  2,263
  2,397
  2,537
  2,683
  2,836
Total liabilities, $m
  271
  314
  360
  410
  463
  519
  578
  640
  705
  773
  843
  917
  994
  1,074
  1,158
  1,244
  1,334
  1,427
  1,524
  1,625
  1,730
  1,840
  1,953
  2,072
  2,195
  2,324
  2,458
  2,598
  2,744
  2,897
Total equity, $m
  30
  35
  40
  46
  51
  58
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  129
  138
  148
  159
  169
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  289
  305
  322
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  301
  349
  400
  456
  514
  577
  642
  711
  783
  859
  937
  1,019
  1,104
  1,193
  1,287
  1,382
  1,482
  1,586
  1,693
  1,806
  1,922
  2,044
  2,170
  2,302
  2,439
  2,582
  2,731
  2,887
  3,049
  3,219
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.970
  7.250
  7.470
  7.660
  7.810
  7.940
  8.050
  8.140
  8.220
  8.290
  8.350
  8.400
  8.450
  8.490
  8.520
  8.560
  8.590
  8.610
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -93
  -107
  -123
  -141
  -159
  -179
  -200
  -222
  -245
  -269
  -292
  -318
  -346
  -374
  -403
  -434
  -466
  -498
  -533
  -568
  -605
  -644
  -684
  -726
  -769
  -815
  -862
  -912
  -963
  -1,017
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
Funds from operations, $m
  -88
  -101
  -116
  -133
  -150
  -169
  -189
  -209
  -231
  -254
  -278
  -303
  -329
  -355
  -383
  -412
  -443
  -474
  -507
  -540
  -576
  -612
  -651
  -690
  -732
  -775
  -820
  -867
  -916
  -967
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -87
  -100
  -116
  -132
  -150
  -168
  -188
  -209
  -231
  -254
  -277
  -302
  -328
  -355
  -383
  -412
  -442
  -473
  -506
  -540
  -575
  -612
  -650
  -689
  -731
  -774
  -819
  -866
  -915
  -966
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
Free cash flow, $m
  -109
  -124
  -142
  -160
  -180
  -201
  -223
  -247
  -271
  -296
  -322
  -350
  -378
  -408
  -438
  -470
  -503
  -538
  -574
  -611
  -650
  -690
  -732
  -776
  -822
  -869
  -919
  -971
  -1,025
  -1,081
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  122
  112
  128
  146
  165
  185
  206
  229
  252
  276
  300
  327
  354
  383
  412
  443
  475
  509
  544
  580
  617
  656
  697
  739
  783
  829
  877
  927
  979
  1,034
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  137
  155
  174
  196
  218
  241
  265
  291
  317
  344
  371
  401
  431
  463
  495
  529
  565
  602
  641
  681
  722
  765
  811
  857
  906
  958
  1,011
  1,067
  1,125
  1,187
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -122
  -112
  -128
  -146
  -165
  -185
  -206
  -229
  -252
  -276
  -300
  -327
  -354
  -383
  -412
  -443
  -475
  -509
  -544
  -580
  -617
  -656
  -697
  -739
  -783
  -829
  -877
  -927
  -979
  -1,034
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -64
  -81
  -95
  -111
  -128
  -145
  -164
  -185
  -206
  -228
  -251
  -276
  -301
  -328
  -355
  -384
  -414
  -444
  -477
  -510
  -545
  -581
  -618
  -657
  -698
  -740
  -785
  -831
  -879
  -929
Discount rate, %
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -58
  -66
  -69
  -70
  -70
  -69
  -66
  -62
  -57
  -51
  -45
  -39
  -33
  -27
  -21
  -17
  -13
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  9.4
  6.9
  5.0
  3.7
  2.7
  2.0
  1.5
  1.1
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Fluidigm Corporation creates, manufactures and markets technologies and life science tools focused on the exploration and analysis of single cells, as well as the industrial application of genomics, based upon the Company's core microfluidics and mass cytometry technologies. The Company operates in the development, manufacturing and commercialization of life science tools for the life science and Ag-Bio industries segment. Its products include preparatory instruments, preparatory analytical instruments, analytical instruments, integrated fluidic circuits (IFCs), and assays and reagents. Its preparatory instruments include C1 Single-Cell Auto Prep System, Access Array System, Juno System and IFCs, and Callisto System and IFC. Its analytical instruments include Biomark HD System, EP1 System and Helios/CyTOF 2 System. Its assays and reagents include Delta Gene and SNP Type Assays, and Access Array Target-Specific Primers and Targeted Sequencing Prep Primers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fluidigm Corporation (FLDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.2
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -54.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 367.9%
Total Debt to Equity 367.9%
Interest Coverage -12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -20.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Return On Total Capital -27.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Return On Equity -90.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.6%
EBITDA Margin -53.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.3%
Operating Margin -71.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -76.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.2%
Net Profit Margin -73.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55%
Effective Tax Rate 5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $102 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fluidigm Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Fluidigm Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for FLDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fluidigm Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fluidigm Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 169.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fluidigm Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fluidigm Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLDM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLDM are equal to 101.5%.

Life of production assets of 26 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fluidigm Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLDM is equal to -1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $30.935 million for Fluidigm Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 69.343 million for Fluidigm Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fluidigm Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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