Intrinsic value of Flex Ltd - FLEX

Previous Close

$15.10

  Intrinsic Value

$17.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+16%

Previous close

$15.10

 
Intrinsic value

$17.45

 
Up/down potential

+16%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLEX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  24,340
  24,900
  25,540
  26,258
  27,055
  27,928
  28,879
  29,909
  31,018
  32,208
  33,482
  34,841
  36,288
  37,825
  39,457
  41,186
  43,016
  44,952
  46,997
  49,156
  51,435
  53,838
  56,371
  59,039
  61,850
  64,809
  67,924
  71,202
  74,650
  78,277
Variable operating expenses, $m
  20,127
  20,587
  21,112
  21,702
  22,356
  23,074
  23,855
  24,700
  25,611
  26,589
  27,500
  28,617
  29,805
  31,068
  32,408
  33,828
  35,332
  36,921
  38,601
  40,375
  42,246
  44,220
  46,300
  48,492
  50,801
  53,232
  55,790
  58,482
  61,314
  64,293
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  3,805
  3,889
  3,974
  4,062
  4,151
  4,242
  4,336
  4,431
  4,528
  4,628
  4,730
  4,834
  4,940
  5,049
  5,160
  5,274
  5,390
  5,508
  5,629
  5,753
  5,880
  6,009
  6,141
  6,276
  6,415
  6,556
  6,700
  6,847
  6,998
  7,152
Total operating expenses, $m
  23,932
  24,476
  25,086
  25,764
  26,507
  27,316
  28,191
  29,131
  30,139
  31,217
  32,230
  33,451
  34,745
  36,117
  37,568
  39,102
  40,722
  42,429
  44,230
  46,128
  48,126
  50,229
  52,441
  54,768
  57,216
  59,788
  62,490
  65,329
  68,312
  71,445
Operating income, $m
  409
  425
  454
  495
  548
  612
  689
  777
  878
  991
  1,251
  1,390
  1,542
  1,708
  1,889
  2,084
  2,295
  2,522
  2,766
  3,028
  3,309
  3,609
  3,929
  4,271
  4,635
  5,022
  5,434
  5,873
  6,338
  6,832
EBITDA, $m
  913
  938
  977
  1,028
  1,093
  1,171
  1,262
  1,367
  1,484
  1,615
  1,760
  1,920
  2,094
  2,283
  2,488
  2,710
  2,949
  3,205
  3,481
  3,776
  4,091
  4,427
  4,786
  5,168
  5,575
  6,007
  6,467
  6,955
  7,473
  8,022
Interest expense (income), $m
  127
  159
  170
  182
  197
  213
  231
  250
  272
  295
  320
  346
  375
  405
  438
  472
  509
  548
  589
  632
  678
  726
  777
  831
  888
  948
  1,011
  1,077
  1,147
  1,221
  1,298
Earnings before tax, $m
  249
  255
  271
  298
  335
  381
  438
  506
  583
  671
  905
  1,015
  1,137
  1,270
  1,416
  1,575
  1,747
  1,934
  2,134
  2,350
  2,582
  2,831
  3,098
  3,382
  3,687
  4,011
  4,357
  4,725
  5,117
  5,534
Tax expense, $m
  67
  69
  73
  80
  90
  103
  118
  137
  157
  181
  244
  274
  307
  343
  382
  425
  472
  522
  576
  635
  697
  764
  836
  913
  995
  1,083
  1,176
  1,276
  1,382
  1,494
Net income, $m
  182
  186
  198
  217
  244
  278
  320
  369
  426
  490
  661
  741
  830
  927
  1,034
  1,150
  1,276
  1,411
  1,558
  1,716
  1,885
  2,067
  2,261
  2,469
  2,691
  2,928
  3,181
  3,449
  3,736
  4,040

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  12,844
  13,140
  13,478
  13,857
  14,277
  14,738
  15,240
  15,783
  16,368
  16,996
  17,668
  18,386
  19,149
  19,961
  20,822
  21,734
  22,700
  23,721
  24,801
  25,940
  27,142
  28,411
  29,747
  31,155
  32,639
  34,200
  35,844
  37,574
  39,393
  41,307
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  12,844
  13,140
  13,478
  13,857
  14,277
  14,738
  15,240
  15,783
  16,368
  16,996
  17,668
  18,386
  19,149
  19,961
  20,822
  21,734
  22,700
  23,721
  24,801
  25,940
  27,142
  28,411
  29,747
  31,155
  32,639
  34,200
  35,844
  37,574
  39,393
  41,307
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
Average production assets, $m
  3,700
  3,785
  3,882
  3,991
  4,112
  4,245
  4,390
  4,546
  4,715
  4,896
  5,089
  5,296
  5,516
  5,749
  5,997
  6,260
  6,538
  6,833
  7,144
  7,472
  7,818
  8,183
  8,568
  8,974
  9,401
  9,851
  10,324
  10,823
  11,347
  11,898
Working capital, $m
  -1,120
  -1,145
  -1,175
  -1,208
  -1,245
  -1,285
  -1,328
  -1,376
  -1,427
  -1,482
  -1,540
  -1,603
  -1,669
  -1,740
  -1,815
  -1,895
  -1,979
  -2,068
  -2,162
  -2,261
  -2,366
  -2,477
  -2,593
  -2,716
  -2,845
  -2,981
  -3,125
  -3,275
  -3,434
  -3,601
Total debt, $m
  3,145
  3,378
  3,644
  3,942
  4,273
  4,635
  5,030
  5,458
  5,919
  6,413
  6,942
  7,506
  8,107
  8,746
  9,423
  10,141
  10,902
  11,705
  12,555
  13,452
  14,398
  15,396
  16,448
  17,556
  18,723
  19,952
  21,246
  22,607
  24,039
  25,546
Total liabilities, $m
  10,109
  10,341
  10,607
  10,905
  11,236
  11,599
  11,994
  12,421
  12,882
  13,376
  13,905
  14,469
  15,070
  15,709
  16,387
  17,105
  17,865
  18,669
  19,518
  20,415
  21,361
  22,359
  23,411
  24,519
  25,687
  26,916
  28,209
  29,570
  31,003
  32,509
Total equity, $m
  2,736
  2,799
  2,871
  2,951
  3,041
  3,139
  3,246
  3,362
  3,486
  3,620
  3,763
  3,916
  4,079
  4,252
  4,435
  4,629
  4,835
  5,053
  5,283
  5,525
  5,781
  6,051
  6,336
  6,636
  6,952
  7,285
  7,635
  8,003
  8,391
  8,798
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  12,845
  13,140
  13,478
  13,856
  14,277
  14,738
  15,240
  15,783
  16,368
  16,996
  17,668
  18,385
  19,149
  19,961
  20,822
  21,734
  22,700
  23,722
  24,801
  25,940
  27,142
  28,410
  29,747
  31,155
  32,639
  34,201
  35,844
  37,573
  39,394
  41,307
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.150
  1.210
  1.270
  1.340
  1.410
  1.480
  1.550
  1.620
  1.700
  1.770
  1.840
  1.920
  1.990
  2.060
  2.120
  2.190
  2.250
  2.320
  2.380
  2.430
  2.490
  2.540
  2.600
  2.650
  2.690
  2.740
  2.780
  2.820
  2.860
  2.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213
  0.213

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  182
  186
  198
  217
  244
  278
  320
  369
  426
  490
  661
  741
  830
  927
  1,034
  1,150
  1,276
  1,411
  1,558
  1,716
  1,885
  2,067
  2,261
  2,469
  2,691
  2,928
  3,181
  3,449
  3,736
  4,040
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  505
  513
  523
  534
  546
  559
  574
  589
  606
  624
  509
  530
  552
  575
  600
  626
  654
  683
  714
  747
  782
  818
  857
  897
  940
  985
  1,032
  1,082
  1,135
  1,190
Funds from operations, $m
  687
  699
  721
  751
  790
  838
  894
  958
  1,032
  1,114
  1,170
  1,271
  1,382
  1,502
  1,634
  1,776
  1,929
  2,095
  2,272
  2,463
  2,667
  2,885
  3,118
  3,367
  3,631
  3,913
  4,213
  4,532
  4,870
  5,230
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
Cash from operations, $m
  709
  725
  750
  784
  827
  878
  938
  1,006
  1,083
  1,169
  1,228
  1,333
  1,448
  1,573
  1,709
  1,855
  2,014
  2,184
  2,366
  2,562
  2,772
  2,996
  3,235
  3,489
  3,761
  4,049
  4,356
  4,683
  5,029
  5,396
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -363
  -370
  -378
  -388
  -399
  -411
  -425
  -439
  -455
  -471
  -490
  -509
  -530
  -552
  -575
  -600
  -626
  -654
  -683
  -714
  -747
  -782
  -818
  -857
  -897
  -940
  -985
  -1,032
  -1,082
  -1,135
New CAPEX, $m
  -66
  -85
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -133
  -145
  -156
  -169
  -181
  -194
  -207
  -220
  -234
  -248
  -263
  -278
  -294
  -311
  -328
  -346
  -365
  -385
  -406
  -427
  -450
  -473
  -498
  -524
  -551
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -429
  -455
  -475
  -497
  -520
  -544
  -570
  -595
  -624
  -652
  -684
  -716
  -750
  -786
  -823
  -863
  -904
  -948
  -994
  -1,042
  -1,093
  -1,147
  -1,203
  -1,263
  -1,324
  -1,390
  -1,458
  -1,530
  -1,606
  -1,686
Free cash flow, $m
  279
  270
  275
  287
  307
  334
  368
  410
  460
  517
  545
  618
  699
  788
  886
  993
  1,109
  1,236
  1,372
  1,520
  1,678
  1,849
  2,031
  2,227
  2,436
  2,659
  2,898
  3,152
  3,422
  3,710
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  193
  232
  266
  298
  331
  363
  395
  428
  461
  494
  529
  564
  601
  639
  678
  718
  760
  804
  849
  897
  946
  998
  1,052
  1,108
  1,167
  1,229
  1,294
  1,361
  1,432
  1,506
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  193
  232
  266
  298
  331
  363
  395
  428
  461
  494
  529
  564
  601
  639
  678
  718
  760
  804
  849
  897
  946
  998
  1,052
  1,108
  1,167
  1,229
  1,294
  1,361
  1,432
  1,506
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  472
  503
  540
  585
  637
  697
  763
  838
  920
  1,011
  1,074
  1,182
  1,299
  1,426
  1,563
  1,711
  1,870
  2,040
  2,222
  2,416
  2,625
  2,847
  3,083
  3,335
  3,603
  3,888
  4,191
  4,513
  4,855
  5,217
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -63
  -72
  -81
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -388
  -408
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  105
  109
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  162
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  214
  224
Cash available for distribution, $m
  415
  440
  468
  505
  548
  598
  657
  722
  796
  877
  931
  1,029
  1,137
  1,254
  1,380
  1,517
  1,664
  1,822
  1,992
  2,174
  2,368
  2,576
  2,798
  3,035
  3,287
  3,556
  3,841
  4,145
  4,467
  4,809
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  398
  403
  408
  415
  425
  434
  444
  451
  457
  460
  442
  439
  432
  421
  405
  385
  362
  336
  307
  276
  245
  214
  183
  155
  128
  104
  82
  64
  49
  36
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Flex Ltd, formerly Flextronics International Ltd. provides design, engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain services and solutions. The Company designs, builds, ships and services packaged consumer electronics and industrial products for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Its segments include High Reliability Solutions (HRS), Consumer Technologies Group (CTG), Industrial and Emerging Industries (IEI) and Communications & Enterprise Compute (CEC). The HRS segment consists of its medical business, automotive business, and defense and aerospace businesses. The CTG segment includes its mobile devices business, consumer electronics business and high-volume computing business. The IEI segment consists of semiconductor and capital equipment, office solutions, household industrial and lifestyle, industrial automation and kiosks, energy and metering, and lighting. The CEC segment includes radio access base stations, remote radio heads, and small cells for wireless infrastructure.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flex Ltd (FLEX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.1
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 30
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 109.3%
Total Debt to Equity 111.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 12.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 6.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
EBITDA Margin 4.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin 2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Net Profit Margin 1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Effective Tax Rate 13.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLEX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLEX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $23863 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flex Ltd. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Flex Ltd. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLEX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLEX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flex Ltd, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flex Ltd.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLEX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3723 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLEX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Flex Ltd.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flex Ltd. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLEX stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLEX are equal to 15.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flex Ltd operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLEX is equal to -4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2678 million for Flex Ltd - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 541 million for Flex Ltd is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flex Ltd at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Once-hot flash storage company Tintri on the verge of collapse   [Jul-06-18 06:02PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ After Flex exit, University City campus eyed for new use   [02:59PM  American City Business Journals]
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