Intrinsic value of Flir Systems - FLIR

Previous Close

$56.06

  Intrinsic Value

$26.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

Previous close

$56.06

 
Intrinsic value

$26.30

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLIR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  1,878
  1,960
  2,047
  2,139
  2,236
  2,338
  2,447
  2,561
  2,681
  2,808
  2,941
  3,082
  3,230
  3,386
  3,550
  3,722
  3,903
  4,094
  4,294
  4,505
  4,726
  4,959
  5,203
  5,460
  5,730
  6,014
  6,312
  6,625
  6,954
  7,299
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,539
  1,602
  1,668
  1,738
  1,812
  1,890
  1,972
  2,059
  2,151
  2,248
  2,242
  2,349
  2,462
  2,580
  2,705
  2,837
  2,975
  3,120
  3,273
  3,433
  3,602
  3,779
  3,966
  4,162
  4,367
  4,583
  4,811
  5,049
  5,300
  5,563
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,539
  1,602
  1,668
  1,738
  1,812
  1,890
  1,972
  2,059
  2,151
  2,248
  2,242
  2,349
  2,462
  2,580
  2,705
  2,837
  2,975
  3,120
  3,273
  3,433
  3,602
  3,779
  3,966
  4,162
  4,367
  4,583
  4,811
  5,049
  5,300
  5,563
Operating income, $m
  339
  358
  379
  401
  424
  448
  474
  501
  530
  560
  700
  733
  768
  805
  844
  885
  928
  974
  1,021
  1,072
  1,124
  1,180
  1,238
  1,299
  1,363
  1,431
  1,501
  1,576
  1,654
  1,736
EBITDA, $m
  491
  513
  536
  560
  585
  612
  640
  670
  702
  735
  770
  806
  845
  886
  929
  974
  1,021
  1,071
  1,124
  1,179
  1,237
  1,298
  1,362
  1,429
  1,499
  1,574
  1,652
  1,734
  1,820
  1,910
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
Earnings before tax, $m
  316
  333
  352
  371
  391
  413
  436
  460
  485
  512
  647
  677
  708
  741
  775
  811
  850
  890
  932
  976
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,177
  1,233
  1,293
  1,355
  1,421
  1,490
  1,563
Tax expense, $m
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  402
  422
Net income, $m
  231
  243
  257
  271
  286
  301
  318
  336
  354
  373
  473
  494
  517
  541
  566
  592
  620
  649
  680
  712
  746
  782
  820
  859
  900
  944
  989
  1,037
  1,088
  1,141

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,803
  2,925
  3,055
  3,192
  3,337
  3,490
  3,652
  3,822
  4,002
  4,191
  4,390
  4,600
  4,821
  5,053
  5,298
  5,555
  5,826
  6,110
  6,409
  6,724
  7,054
  7,401
  7,766
  8,150
  8,553
  8,976
  9,421
  9,888
  10,379
  10,894
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,803
  2,925
  3,055
  3,192
  3,337
  3,490
  3,652
  3,822
  4,002
  4,191
  4,390
  4,600
  4,821
  5,053
  5,298
  5,555
  5,826
  6,110
  6,409
  6,724
  7,054
  7,401
  7,766
  8,150
  8,553
  8,976
  9,421
  9,888
  10,379
  10,894
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
Average production assets, $m
  813
  849
  886
  926
  968
  1,013
  1,059
  1,109
  1,161
  1,216
  1,274
  1,334
  1,399
  1,466
  1,537
  1,612
  1,690
  1,773
  1,859
  1,951
  2,046
  2,147
  2,253
  2,364
  2,481
  2,604
  2,733
  2,869
  3,011
  3,161
Working capital, $m
  494
  515
  538
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  705
  738
  774
  811
  849
  890
  934
  979
  1,027
  1,077
  1,129
  1,185
  1,243
  1,304
  1,369
  1,436
  1,507
  1,582
  1,660
  1,742
  1,829
  1,920
Total debt, $m
  463
  507
  554
  604
  657
  712
  771
  833
  898
  966
  1,039
  1,115
  1,195
  1,280
  1,368
  1,462
  1,560
  1,663
  1,772
  1,886
  2,006
  2,132
  2,264
  2,404
  2,550
  2,704
  2,865
  3,035
  3,213
  3,400
Total liabilities, $m
  1,017
  1,062
  1,109
  1,159
  1,211
  1,267
  1,326
  1,387
  1,453
  1,521
  1,594
  1,670
  1,750
  1,834
  1,923
  2,017
  2,115
  2,218
  2,327
  2,441
  2,561
  2,687
  2,819
  2,958
  3,105
  3,258
  3,420
  3,589
  3,768
  3,955
Total equity, $m
  1,785
  1,863
  1,946
  2,033
  2,126
  2,223
  2,326
  2,435
  2,549
  2,670
  2,796
  2,930
  3,071
  3,219
  3,375
  3,539
  3,711
  3,892
  4,083
  4,283
  4,493
  4,715
  4,947
  5,191
  5,448
  5,718
  6,001
  6,299
  6,611
  6,940
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,802
  2,925
  3,055
  3,192
  3,337
  3,490
  3,652
  3,822
  4,002
  4,191
  4,390
  4,600
  4,821
  5,053
  5,298
  5,556
  5,826
  6,110
  6,410
  6,724
  7,054
  7,402
  7,766
  8,149
  8,553
  8,976
  9,421
  9,888
  10,379
  10,895
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  231
  243
  257
  271
  286
  301
  318
  336
  354
  373
  473
  494
  517
  541
  566
  592
  620
  649
  680
  712
  746
  782
  820
  859
  900
  944
  989
  1,037
  1,088
  1,141
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  152
  154
  156
  159
  161
  163
  166
  169
  172
  175
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  165
  174
Funds from operations, $m
  383
  398
  413
  430
  447
  465
  484
  504
  526
  548
  543
  568
  594
  621
  650
  681
  713
  747
  782
  820
  859
  900
  943
  989
  1,037
  1,087
  1,140
  1,195
  1,253
  1,315
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  91
Cash from operations, $m
  363
  376
  390
  405
  421
  438
  456
  474
  494
  515
  508
  531
  555
  580
  607
  636
  665
  697
  730
  764
  801
  839
  879
  921
  966
  1,012
  1,061
  1,113
  1,167
  1,224
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -150
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -300
  -315
Free cash flow, $m
  287
  296
  306
  317
  328
  340
  353
  367
  381
  396
  383
  400
  417
  436
  456
  476
  498
  521
  545
  571
  598
  626
  655
  686
  719
  753
  789
  827
  867
  909
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  161
  170
  178
  187
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  161
  170
  178
  187
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  329
  340
  353
  367
  381
  396
  412
  428
  446
  465
  455
  476
  498
  520
  545
  570
  597
  625
  654
  685
  717
  752
  788
  825
  865
  907
  951
  997
  1,045
  1,096
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -298
  -313
  -328
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  124
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  378
  262
  271
  279
  289
  298
  309
  320
  332
  344
  328
  342
  357
  372
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  485
  507
  530
  555
  581
  608
  637
  667
  699
  732
  767
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  362
  240
  235
  230
  224
  217
  209
  200
  191
  180
  156
  146
  136
  125
  114
  103
  92
  82
  71
  62
  52
  44
  36
  30
  24
  19
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR) designs, develops, markets and distributes thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locater systems, measurement and diagnostic systems and threat-detection solutions. The Company's segments include Surveillance, Instruments, Security, OEM & Emerging Markets, Maritime and Detection. Its Surveillance segment provides enhanced imaging and recognition solutions. Its Instruments segment provides devices that image, measure and assess thermal energy, gases and other environmental elements for industrial, commercial, and scientific applications under the FLIR and Extech brands. Its OEM & Emerging Markets segment provides thermal imaging camera cores and components. Its Maritime segment develops and manufactures electronics and imaging instruments. Its Security segment develops and manufactures a range of cameras and video recording systems. The Detection segment offers sensors, instruments and integrated platform solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flir Systems (FLIR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.8
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -47.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 29.9%
Total Debt to Equity 30.8%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.9%
EBITDA Margin 21.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Operating Margin 17.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Net Profit Margin 10%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Effective Tax Rate 39.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Payout Ratio 39.5%

FLIR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLIR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1800.434 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flir Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Flir Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLIR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLIR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flir Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flir Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLIR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLIR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Flir Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flir Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLIR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLIR are equal to 43.3%.

Life of production assets of 18.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flir Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLIR is equal to 26.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1834.558 million for Flir Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 138.02 million for Flir Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flir Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ FLIR launches new system for surveillance drones   [Oct-08-18 08:02AM  Reuters]
▶ 7 ways to invest in the automation megatrend   [Sep-19-18 12:35PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Flir keeps busy with transportation software company purchase   [Sep-11-18 09:48AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ FLIR Systems Acquires Acyclica   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is FLIR Systems Inc (NASDAQ:FLIR) A Strong Dividend Stock?   [Sep-02-18 10:41AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ FLIR puts money into Singapore simulator specialists   [Aug-27-18 09:16AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Here are the Portland stocks driving Wall Street's latest bull run (Photos)   [Aug-22-18 05:29PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why FLIR Systems Inc. Jumped 11.8% Today   [05:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Flir Systems: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ FLIR Launches Next-Generation Black Hornet 3 Nano-UAV   [Jun-05-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ L3's growth strategy guided by credit rating risk   [May-31-18 01:06AM  Reuters]
▶ Flir to pay $30 million fine for federal trade violations   [Apr-25-18 05:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Flir Systems: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ Flir pours money into Texas software company in the drone space   [Apr-18-18 01:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Flir Systems reports 4Q loss   [08:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Composite Rating For Flir Systems Rises To 96   [Jan-10-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ One Of The Hottest Dow Stocks Has A New Buy Point: Investing Action Plan   [Dec-14-17 04:34PM  Investor's Business Daily]

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