Intrinsic value of Flir Systems - FLIR

Previous Close

$60.42

  Intrinsic Value

$25.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-58%

Previous close

$60.42

 
Intrinsic value

$25.15

 
Up/down potential

-58%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLIR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  1,949
  2,105
  2,266
  2,434
  2,609
  2,790
  2,978
  3,174
  3,378
  3,590
  3,811
  4,041
  4,280
  4,530
  4,791
  5,063
  5,347
  5,644
  5,954
  6,279
  6,618
  6,972
  7,344
  7,732
  8,139
  8,566
  9,012
  9,480
  9,970
  10,484
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,593
  1,712
  1,835
  1,963
  2,096
  2,234
  2,377
  2,527
  2,682
  2,844
  2,904
  3,080
  3,262
  3,453
  3,651
  3,859
  4,075
  4,301
  4,538
  4,785
  5,043
  5,314
  5,597
  5,893
  6,203
  6,528
  6,868
  7,225
  7,599
  7,990
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,593
  1,712
  1,835
  1,963
  2,096
  2,234
  2,377
  2,527
  2,682
  2,844
  2,904
  3,080
  3,262
  3,453
  3,651
  3,859
  4,075
  4,301
  4,538
  4,785
  5,043
  5,314
  5,597
  5,893
  6,203
  6,528
  6,868
  7,225
  7,599
  7,990
Operating income, $m
  356
  393
  431
  471
  513
  556
  601
  647
  696
  746
  907
  961
  1,018
  1,078
  1,140
  1,204
  1,272
  1,343
  1,416
  1,494
  1,574
  1,659
  1,747
  1,839
  1,936
  2,038
  2,144
  2,255
  2,372
  2,494
EBITDA, $m
  604
  652
  702
  754
  808
  864
  922
  983
  1,046
  1,111
  1,180
  1,251
  1,325
  1,403
  1,483
  1,568
  1,655
  1,747
  1,843
  1,944
  2,049
  2,159
  2,274
  2,394
  2,520
  2,652
  2,790
  2,935
  3,087
  3,246
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  127
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  247
  262
Earnings before tax, $m
  333
  366
  400
  435
  471
  509
  549
  590
  633
  677
  831
  880
  930
  982
  1,037
  1,094
  1,154
  1,216
  1,281
  1,349
  1,421
  1,495
  1,573
  1,655
  1,740
  1,829
  1,923
  2,021
  2,124
  2,232
Tax expense, $m
  90
  99
  108
  117
  127
  138
  148
  159
  171
  183
  224
  238
  251
  265
  280
  295
  312
  328
  346
  364
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
  494
  519
  546
  574
  603
Net income, $m
  243
  267
  292
  317
  344
  372
  401
  431
  462
  494
  607
  642
  679
  717
  757
  799
  842
  888
  935
  985
  1,037
  1,091
  1,148
  1,208
  1,270
  1,336
  1,404
  1,476
  1,551
  1,630

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,910
  3,141
  3,382
  3,633
  3,893
  4,164
  4,445
  4,737
  5,042
  5,358
  5,688
  6,031
  6,389
  6,762
  7,151
  7,557
  7,981
  8,424
  8,887
  9,371
  9,877
  10,407
  10,961
  11,541
  12,148
  12,785
  13,451
  14,149
  14,881
  15,648
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,910
  3,141
  3,382
  3,633
  3,893
  4,164
  4,445
  4,737
  5,042
  5,358
  5,688
  6,031
  6,389
  6,762
  7,151
  7,557
  7,981
  8,424
  8,887
  9,371
  9,877
  10,407
  10,961
  11,541
  12,148
  12,785
  13,451
  14,149
  14,881
  15,648
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
Average production assets, $m
  1,398
  1,509
  1,625
  1,745
  1,870
  2,000
  2,135
  2,276
  2,422
  2,574
  2,732
  2,897
  3,069
  3,248
  3,435
  3,630
  3,834
  4,047
  4,269
  4,502
  4,745
  4,999
  5,265
  5,544
  5,836
  6,142
  6,462
  6,797
  7,149
  7,517
Working capital, $m
  289
  312
  335
  360
  386
  413
  441
  470
  500
  531
  564
  598
  634
  670
  709
  749
  791
  835
  881
  929
  979
  1,032
  1,087
  1,144
  1,205
  1,268
  1,334
  1,403
  1,476
  1,552
Total debt, $m
  502
  586
  674
  764
  859
  957
  1,059
  1,165
  1,276
  1,391
  1,510
  1,635
  1,765
  1,900
  2,041
  2,189
  2,343
  2,504
  2,672
  2,847
  3,031
  3,223
  3,424
  3,635
  3,856
  4,086
  4,328
  4,582
  4,848
  5,126
Total liabilities, $m
  1,056
  1,140
  1,228
  1,319
  1,413
  1,511
  1,614
  1,720
  1,830
  1,945
  2,065
  2,189
  2,319
  2,455
  2,596
  2,743
  2,897
  3,058
  3,226
  3,402
  3,585
  3,778
  3,979
  4,189
  4,410
  4,641
  4,883
  5,136
  5,402
  5,680
Total equity, $m
  1,853
  2,001
  2,155
  2,314
  2,480
  2,652
  2,831
  3,018
  3,212
  3,413
  3,623
  3,842
  4,070
  4,307
  4,555
  4,814
  5,084
  5,366
  5,661
  5,969
  6,292
  6,629
  6,982
  7,352
  7,738
  8,144
  8,568
  9,013
  9,479
  9,968
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,909
  3,141
  3,383
  3,633
  3,893
  4,163
  4,445
  4,738
  5,042
  5,358
  5,688
  6,031
  6,389
  6,762
  7,151
  7,557
  7,981
  8,424
  8,887
  9,371
  9,877
  10,407
  10,961
  11,541
  12,148
  12,785
  13,451
  14,149
  14,881
  15,648
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  243
  267
  292
  317
  344
  372
  401
  431
  462
  494
  607
  642
  679
  717
  757
  799
  842
  888
  935
  985
  1,037
  1,091
  1,148
  1,208
  1,270
  1,336
  1,404
  1,476
  1,551
  1,630
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  273
  290
  307
  325
  344
  363
  383
  405
  427
  450
  474
  500
  527
  554
  584
  614
  646
  680
  715
  752
Funds from operations, $m
  491
  526
  562
  600
  639
  680
  722
  766
  812
  860
  880
  932
  986
  1,042
  1,101
  1,162
  1,226
  1,292
  1,362
  1,435
  1,511
  1,591
  1,675
  1,762
  1,854
  1,950
  2,050
  2,155
  2,266
  2,381
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
Cash from operations, $m
  469
  503
  538
  575
  613
  653
  694
  737
  782
  828
  848
  898
  950
  1,005
  1,062
  1,122
  1,184
  1,249
  1,316
  1,387
  1,461
  1,539
  1,620
  1,705
  1,794
  1,887
  1,984
  2,086
  2,193
  2,305
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -129
  -140
  -151
  -162
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -228
  -242
  -257
  -273
  -290
  -307
  -325
  -344
  -363
  -383
  -405
  -427
  -450
  -474
  -500
  -527
  -554
  -584
  -614
  -646
  -680
  -715
New CAPEX, $m
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -352
  -369
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -235
  -251
  -267
  -282
  -300
  -317
  -335
  -354
  -374
  -394
  -415
  -438
  -462
  -486
  -512
  -539
  -567
  -596
  -627
  -659
  -693
  -728
  -766
  -806
  -846
  -890
  -934
  -981
  -1,032
  -1,084
Free cash flow, $m
  234
  252
  271
  292
  314
  336
  359
  383
  408
  434
  432
  460
  489
  519
  550
  583
  617
  652
  689
  728
  768
  810
  854
  899
  947
  997
  1,050
  1,104
  1,162
  1,222
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  278
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  278
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  315
  336
  359
  383
  408
  434
  461
  489
  519
  549
  551
  584
  619
  654
  692
  730
  771
  813
  857
  903
  952
  1,002
  1,055
  1,110
  1,168
  1,228
  1,292
  1,358
  1,428
  1,500
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -387
  -405
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -489
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  124
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  146
  153
  161
  169
Cash available for distribution, $m
  296
  188
  205
  223
  242
  262
  282
  303
  325
  347
  341
  366
  391
  417
  444
  472
  501
  531
  562
  595
  629
  665
  702
  741
  781
  823
  867
  913
  961
  1,012
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  284
  172
  179
  184
  188
  190
  191
  189
  187
  182
  162
  156
  149
  140
  130
  120
  109
  98
  87
  76
  65
  55
  46
  38
  30
  24
  19
  14
  10
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR) designs, develops, markets and distributes thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locater systems, measurement and diagnostic systems and threat-detection solutions. The Company's segments include Surveillance, Instruments, Security, OEM & Emerging Markets, Maritime and Detection. Its Surveillance segment provides enhanced imaging and recognition solutions. Its Instruments segment provides devices that image, measure and assess thermal energy, gases and other environmental elements for industrial, commercial, and scientific applications under the FLIR and Extech brands. Its OEM & Emerging Markets segment provides thermal imaging camera cores and components. Its Maritime segment develops and manufactures electronics and imaging instruments. Its Security segment develops and manufactures a range of cameras and video recording systems. The Detection segment offers sensors, instruments and integrated platform solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flir Systems (FLIR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 49.3
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -47.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 29.9%
Total Debt to Equity 30.8%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.9%
EBITDA Margin 21.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Operating Margin 17.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Net Profit Margin 10%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Effective Tax Rate 39.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Payout Ratio 39.5%

FLIR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLIR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1800 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flir Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Flir Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLIR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLIR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flir Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flir Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLIR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLIR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Flir Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flir Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLIR stock is equal to 1.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLIR are equal to 71.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flir Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLIR is equal to 14.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1835 million for Flir Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 139 million for Flir Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flir Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why FLIR Systems Inc. Jumped 11.8% Today   [05:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Flir Systems: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ FLIR Launches Next-Generation Black Hornet 3 Nano-UAV   [Jun-05-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ L3's growth strategy guided by credit rating risk   [May-31-18 01:06AM  Reuters]
▶ Flir to pay $30 million fine for federal trade violations   [Apr-25-18 05:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Flir Systems: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ Flir pours money into Texas software company in the drone space   [Apr-18-18 01:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Flir Systems reports 4Q loss   [08:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Composite Rating For Flir Systems Rises To 96   [Jan-10-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ One Of The Hottest Dow Stocks Has A New Buy Point: Investing Action Plan   [Dec-14-17 04:34PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Flir Systems Gets IBD Stock Rating Upgrade   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ The Hot Stock: Flir System Flies Higher   [Oct-25-17 05:12PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Flir Systems beats Street 3Q forecasts   [07:49AM  Associated Press]
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