Intrinsic value of Fluor - FLR

Previous Close

$56.28

  Intrinsic Value

$52.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-6%

Previous close

$56.28

 
Intrinsic value

$52.71

 
Up/down potential

-6%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.50
  2.75
  2.97
  3.18
  3.36
  3.52
  3.67
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.22
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.70
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  20,009
  20,559
  21,171
  21,844
  22,578
  23,373
  24,231
  25,153
  26,140
  27,194
  28,316
  29,510
  30,777
  32,121
  33,543
  35,047
  36,637
  38,316
  40,089
  41,958
  43,928
  46,004
  48,191
  50,494
  52,918
  55,469
  58,153
  60,976
  63,945
  67,067
Variable operating expenses, $m
  19,367
  19,898
  20,489
  21,138
  21,846
  22,614
  23,442
  24,332
  25,284
  26,301
  27,328
  28,480
  29,703
  31,000
  32,372
  33,824
  35,359
  36,979
  38,690
  40,493
  42,395
  44,399
  46,510
  48,732
  51,071
  53,533
  56,123
  58,848
  61,713
  64,726
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  19,367
  19,898
  20,489
  21,138
  21,846
  22,614
  23,442
  24,332
  25,284
  26,301
  27,328
  28,480
  29,703
  31,000
  32,372
  33,824
  35,359
  36,979
  38,690
  40,493
  42,395
  44,399
  46,510
  48,732
  51,071
  53,533
  56,123
  58,848
  61,713
  64,726
Operating income, $m
  642
  661
  682
  706
  731
  759
  789
  821
  856
  892
  988
  1,030
  1,074
  1,121
  1,170
  1,223
  1,278
  1,337
  1,399
  1,464
  1,533
  1,605
  1,682
  1,762
  1,847
  1,936
  2,029
  2,128
  2,231
  2,340
EBITDA, $m
  862
  886
  912
  941
  973
  1,007
  1,044
  1,084
  1,126
  1,172
  1,220
  1,272
  1,326
  1,384
  1,446
  1,510
  1,579
  1,651
  1,728
  1,808
  1,893
  1,983
  2,077
  2,176
  2,280
  2,390
  2,506
  2,628
  2,756
  2,890
Interest expense (income), $m
  72
  87
  96
  105
  115
  126
  138
  151
  166
  181
  197
  215
  233
  253
  274
  296
  320
  345
  371
  399
  428
  459
  492
  526
  562
  601
  641
  683
  727
  774
  823
Earnings before tax, $m
  554
  565
  578
  591
  605
  621
  638
  656
  675
  695
  773
  797
  821
  847
  874
  903
  934
  966
  1,000
  1,036
  1,074
  1,113
  1,155
  1,200
  1,246
  1,295
  1,346
  1,400
  1,457
  1,517
Tax expense, $m
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
  168
  172
  177
  182
  188
  209
  215
  222
  229
  236
  244
  252
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  312
  324
  336
  350
  363
  378
  393
  410
Net income, $m
  405
  413
  422
  431
  442
  453
  466
  479
  493
  508
  565
  581
  599
  618
  638
  659
  682
  705
  730
  756
  784
  813
  843
  876
  910
  945
  983
  1,022
  1,064
  1,107

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,560
  9,823
  10,115
  10,437
  10,787
  11,167
  11,577
  12,018
  12,489
  12,993
  13,529
  14,099
  14,705
  15,347
  16,026
  16,745
  17,505
  18,307
  19,154
  20,047
  20,988
  21,980
  23,025
  24,125
  25,283
  26,502
  27,784
  29,133
  30,552
  32,043
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,560
  9,823
  10,115
  10,437
  10,787
  11,167
  11,577
  12,018
  12,489
  12,993
  13,529
  14,099
  14,705
  15,347
  16,026
  16,745
  17,505
  18,307
  19,154
  20,047
  20,988
  21,980
  23,025
  24,125
  25,283
  26,502
  27,784
  29,133
  30,552
  32,043
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
  2.093
Average production assets, $m
  1,641
  1,686
  1,736
  1,791
  1,851
  1,917
  1,987
  2,063
  2,143
  2,230
  2,322
  2,420
  2,524
  2,634
  2,751
  2,874
  3,004
  3,142
  3,287
  3,441
  3,602
  3,772
  3,952
  4,140
  4,339
  4,548
  4,769
  5,000
  5,243
  5,499
Working capital, $m
  -1,541
  -1,583
  -1,630
  -1,682
  -1,738
  -1,800
  -1,866
  -1,937
  -2,013
  -2,094
  -2,180
  -2,272
  -2,370
  -2,473
  -2,583
  -2,699
  -2,821
  -2,950
  -3,087
  -3,231
  -3,382
  -3,542
  -3,711
  -3,888
  -4,075
  -4,271
  -4,478
  -4,695
  -4,924
  -5,164
Total debt, $m
  1,771
  1,940
  2,127
  2,334
  2,559
  2,803
  3,066
  3,349
  3,651
  3,975
  4,319
  4,685
  5,074
  5,486
  5,922
  6,384
  6,871
  7,386
  7,930
  8,503
  9,108
  9,744
  10,415
  11,122
  11,865
  12,648
  13,471
  14,337
  15,247
  16,205
Total liabilities, $m
  6,138
  6,306
  6,494
  6,700
  6,925
  7,169
  7,433
  7,715
  8,018
  8,341
  8,686
  9,052
  9,441
  9,853
  10,289
  10,750
  11,238
  11,753
  12,297
  12,870
  13,474
  14,111
  14,782
  15,488
  16,232
  17,014
  17,838
  18,704
  19,614
  20,572
Total equity, $m
  3,422
  3,517
  3,621
  3,736
  3,862
  3,998
  4,145
  4,302
  4,471
  4,651
  4,843
  5,048
  5,264
  5,494
  5,737
  5,995
  6,267
  6,554
  6,857
  7,177
  7,514
  7,869
  8,243
  8,637
  9,051
  9,488
  9,947
  10,430
  10,938
  11,472
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,560
  9,823
  10,115
  10,436
  10,787
  11,167
  11,578
  12,017
  12,489
  12,992
  13,529
  14,100
  14,705
  15,347
  16,026
  16,745
  17,505
  18,307
  19,154
  20,047
  20,988
  21,980
  23,025
  24,125
  25,283
  26,502
  27,785
  29,134
  30,552
  32,044
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.520
  0.550
  0.590
  0.620
  0.660
  0.700
  0.740
  0.780
  0.820
  0.850
  0.890
  0.930
  0.960
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.210
  1.240
  1.260
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  405
  413
  422
  431
  442
  453
  466
  479
  493
  508
  565
  581
  599
  618
  638
  659
  682
  705
  730
  756
  784
  813
  843
  876
  910
  945
  983
  1,022
  1,064
  1,107
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  221
  225
  230
  236
  242
  248
  255
  263
  271
  279
  232
  242
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
  524
  550
Funds from operations, $m
  625
  638
  652
  667
  684
  701
  721
  741
  763
  787
  797
  823
  852
  882
  913
  947
  982
  1,019
  1,059
  1,100
  1,144
  1,190
  1,239
  1,290
  1,343
  1,400
  1,460
  1,522
  1,588
  1,657
Change in working capital, $m
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -196
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -240
Cash from operations, $m
  663
  680
  699
  719
  740
  763
  787
  812
  839
  868
  883
  915
  949
  985
  1,023
  1,063
  1,104
  1,149
  1,195
  1,244
  1,296
  1,350
  1,407
  1,467
  1,530
  1,596
  1,666
  1,740
  1,817
  1,898
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -160
  -164
  -169
  -174
  -179
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -344
  -360
  -377
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -477
  -500
  -524
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -256
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -197
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -438
  -459
  -482
  -506
  -530
  -556
  -584
  -613
  -643
  -675
  -708
  -743
  -780
Free cash flow, $m
  466
  471
  480
  490
  501
  512
  525
  538
  552
  567
  568
  585
  603
  622
  643
  664
  687
  711
  736
  762
  790
  819
  850
  883
  917
  953
  991
  1,031
  1,073
  1,117
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  152
  169
  188
  206
  225
  244
  263
  283
  303
  323
  344
  366
  389
  412
  436
  461
  488
  515
  544
  573
  604
  637
  671
  706
  744
  782
  823
  866
  911
  958
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  152
  169
  188
  206
  225
  244
  263
  283
  303
  323
  344
  366
  389
  412
  436
  461
  488
  515
  544
  573
  604
  637
  671
  706
  744
  782
  823
  866
  911
  958
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  617
  640
  668
  696
  726
  756
  788
  821
  855
  891
  913
  951
  992
  1,035
  1,079
  1,126
  1,174
  1,226
  1,279
  1,335
  1,394
  1,456
  1,521
  1,589
  1,661
  1,736
  1,815
  1,897
  1,984
  2,075
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -80
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -337
  -355
  -374
  -394
  -415
  -436
  -459
  -483
  -508
  -534
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Cash available for distribution, $m
  537
  546
  563
  581
  600
  620
  641
  663
  686
  710
  721
  747
  775
  805
  836
  868
  902
  938
  976
  1,016
  1,057
  1,101
  1,147
  1,195
  1,246
  1,300
  1,356
  1,414
  1,476
  1,541
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  515
  499
  490
  479
  465
  450
  433
  414
  394
  372
  342
  319
  295
  270
  245
  221
  196
  173
  150
  129
  109
  91
  75
  61
  48
  38
  29
  22
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fluor Corporation (Fluor) is a holding company. The Company operates its business in four segments: Energy, Chemicals & Mining; Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Government, and Maintenance, Modification & Asset Integrity (MMAI). The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers professional services providing engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, commissioning and maintenance, as well as project management services on a global basis. The Company is an integrated solutions provider for various industries, including oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, mining and metals, transportation, power, life sciences and advanced manufacturing. It is also a service provider to the United States federal Government and governments abroad. It offers services in various categories, including engineering and design, procurement, construction, fabrication, maintenance, modification and asset integrity and project management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fluor (FLR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.9
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 48.6%
Total Debt to Equity 51.2%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 9.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 4.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
EBITDA Margin 4.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Operating Margin 2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 40.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Payout Ratio 42%

FLR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $19521 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fluor. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Fluor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fluor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fluor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fluor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fluor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLR stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLR are equal to 8.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fluor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLR is equal to -7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3342 million for Fluor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 140 million for Fluor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fluor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Regulator seeks more than $1B in sanctions against utility in V.C. Summer nuclear case   [Aug-10-18 03:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Fluor to Design and Build Quellaveco Copper Project in Peru   [Aug-08-18 06:28AM  Business Wire]
▶ Fluor: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fluor Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Fluor Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-01-18 04:54PM  Business Wire]
▶ Fluor Celebrates 40 Years of Operations in China   [Jul-25-18 09:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ After-hours buzz: PSMT, FLR & more   [Jul-05-18 06:37PM  CNBC]
▶ [$$] Westinghouse Challenges Fluor Over $260 Million Bankruptcy Claims   [Jun-20-18 02:14PM  The Wall Street Journal]
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