Intrinsic value of Flowserve - FLS

Previous Close

$49.90

  Intrinsic Value

$19.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$49.90

 
Intrinsic value

$19.68

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,734
  3,820
  3,918
  4,029
  4,151
  4,285
  4,431
  4,589
  4,759
  4,941
  5,137
  5,345
  5,567
  5,803
  6,053
  6,319
  6,599
  6,896
  7,210
  7,541
  7,891
  8,260
  8,648
  9,058
  9,489
  9,943
  10,421
  10,924
  11,453
  12,009
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,809
  2,870
  2,940
  3,019
  3,106
  3,202
  3,306
  3,419
  3,540
  3,671
  3,668
  3,816
  3,975
  4,143
  4,322
  4,511
  4,712
  4,924
  5,148
  5,385
  5,634
  5,897
  6,175
  6,467
  6,775
  7,099
  7,440
  7,799
  8,177
  8,574
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  743
  759
  776
  793
  811
  828
  847
  865
  884
  904
  924
  944
  965
  986
  1,008
  1,030
  1,052
  1,076
  1,099
  1,123
  1,148
  1,173
  1,199
  1,226
  1,253
  1,280
  1,308
  1,337
  1,367
  1,397
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,552
  3,629
  3,716
  3,812
  3,917
  4,030
  4,153
  4,284
  4,424
  4,575
  4,592
  4,760
  4,940
  5,129
  5,330
  5,541
  5,764
  6,000
  6,247
  6,508
  6,782
  7,070
  7,374
  7,693
  8,028
  8,379
  8,748
  9,136
  9,544
  9,971
Operating income, $m
  182
  190
  202
  216
  234
  254
  278
  304
  334
  367
  546
  585
  628
  674
  724
  777
  835
  897
  963
  1,033
  1,109
  1,189
  1,274
  1,365
  1,461
  1,564
  1,672
  1,787
  1,909
  2,038
EBITDA, $m
  542
  555
  572
  593
  617
  646
  678
  713
  753
  796
  843
  895
  950
  1,010
  1,075
  1,144
  1,218
  1,297
  1,381
  1,471
  1,566
  1,668
  1,776
  1,890
  2,012
  2,140
  2,276
  2,421
  2,573
  2,735
Interest expense (income), $m
  57
  85
  88
  93
  97
  103
  108
  115
  122
  129
  138
  146
  156
  166
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  271
  288
  306
  324
  344
  365
  386
  409
  434
  459
Earnings before tax, $m
  97
  102
  109
  119
  131
  146
  163
  182
  204
  229
  399
  429
  462
  497
  536
  578
  623
  671
  723
  778
  838
  901
  969
  1,041
  1,117
  1,199
  1,286
  1,378
  1,476
  1,579
Tax expense, $m
  26
  28
  29
  32
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  62
  108
  116
  125
  134
  145
  156
  168
  181
  195
  210
  226
  243
  262
  281
  302
  324
  347
  372
  398
  426
Net income, $m
  71
  74
  80
  87
  96
  106
  119
  133
  149
  167
  291
  313
  337
  363
  391
  422
  454
  490
  528
  568
  611
  658
  707
  760
  816
  875
  939
  1,006
  1,077
  1,153

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,006
  5,121
  5,252
  5,400
  5,564
  5,743
  5,939
  6,151
  6,379
  6,624
  6,886
  7,165
  7,463
  7,779
  8,114
  8,470
  8,846
  9,245
  9,665
  10,109
  10,578
  11,072
  11,593
  12,142
  12,720
  13,328
  13,969
  14,643
  15,352
  16,098
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,006
  5,121
  5,252
  5,400
  5,564
  5,743
  5,939
  6,151
  6,379
  6,624
  6,886
  7,165
  7,463
  7,779
  8,114
  8,470
  8,846
  9,245
  9,665
  10,109
  10,578
  11,072
  11,593
  12,142
  12,720
  13,328
  13,969
  14,643
  15,352
  16,098
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
Average production assets, $m
  2,166
  2,216
  2,273
  2,337
  2,407
  2,485
  2,570
  2,661
  2,760
  2,866
  2,979
  3,100
  3,229
  3,366
  3,511
  3,665
  3,828
  4,000
  4,182
  4,374
  4,577
  4,791
  5,016
  5,253
  5,504
  5,767
  6,044
  6,336
  6,643
  6,965
Working capital, $m
  452
  462
  474
  487
  502
  518
  536
  555
  576
  598
  622
  647
  674
  702
  732
  765
  799
  834
  872
  913
  955
  999
  1,046
  1,096
  1,148
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,386
  1,453
Total debt, $m
  1,639
  1,715
  1,802
  1,900
  2,009
  2,128
  2,257
  2,398
  2,549
  2,711
  2,885
  3,070
  3,268
  3,477
  3,700
  3,935
  4,185
  4,449
  4,728
  5,022
  5,333
  5,660
  6,006
  6,370
  6,753
  7,156
  7,581
  8,028
  8,498
  8,993
Total liabilities, $m
  3,319
  3,395
  3,482
  3,580
  3,689
  3,808
  3,938
  4,078
  4,229
  4,392
  4,565
  4,750
  4,948
  5,157
  5,380
  5,616
  5,865
  6,129
  6,408
  6,702
  7,013
  7,341
  7,686
  8,050
  8,433
  8,837
  9,261
  9,708
  10,178
  10,673
Total equity, $m
  1,687
  1,726
  1,770
  1,820
  1,875
  1,936
  2,001
  2,073
  2,150
  2,232
  2,320
  2,415
  2,515
  2,621
  2,735
  2,854
  2,981
  3,115
  3,257
  3,407
  3,565
  3,731
  3,907
  4,092
  4,287
  4,492
  4,708
  4,935
  5,174
  5,425
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,006
  5,121
  5,252
  5,400
  5,564
  5,744
  5,939
  6,151
  6,379
  6,624
  6,885
  7,165
  7,463
  7,778
  8,115
  8,470
  8,846
  9,244
  9,665
  10,109
  10,578
  11,072
  11,593
  12,142
  12,720
  13,329
  13,969
  14,643
  15,352
  16,098
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.300
  1.330
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.500
  1.520
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.640
  1.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  71
  74
  80
  87
  96
  106
  119
  133
  149
  167
  291
  313
  337
  363
  391
  422
  454
  490
  528
  568
  611
  658
  707
  760
  816
  875
  939
  1,006
  1,077
  1,153
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  359
  364
  370
  376
  384
  391
  400
  409
  419
  429
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
  383
  400
  418
  437
  458
  479
  502
  525
  550
  577
  604
  634
  664
  697
Funds from operations, $m
  430
  439
  450
  463
  479
  498
  519
  542
  568
  597
  589
  623
  660
  700
  742
  788
  837
  890
  946
  1,005
  1,069
  1,137
  1,209
  1,285
  1,366
  1,452
  1,543
  1,639
  1,741
  1,849
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Cash from operations, $m
  421
  428
  438
  450
  464
  482
  501
  523
  547
  575
  566
  598
  633
  671
  712
  756
  803
  854
  908
  965
  1,027
  1,092
  1,162
  1,235
  1,314
  1,397
  1,485
  1,578
  1,677
  1,782
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -212
  -217
  -222
  -227
  -234
  -241
  -249
  -257
  -266
  -276
  -287
  -298
  -310
  -323
  -337
  -351
  -366
  -383
  -400
  -418
  -437
  -458
  -479
  -502
  -525
  -550
  -577
  -604
  -634
  -664
New CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -277
  -292
  -307
  -323
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -256
  -267
  -279
  -291
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -555
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -672
  -704
  -739
  -775
  -813
  -854
  -896
  -941
  -987
Free cash flow, $m
  166
  162
  159
  159
  160
  163
  168
  174
  183
  193
  166
  179
  194
  211
  230
  251
  274
  299
  326
  355
  387
  421
  457
  496
  538
  583
  631
  682
  737
  795
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  63
  76
  87
  98
  109
  119
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  185
  197
  210
  222
  236
  250
  264
  279
  294
  311
  328
  345
  364
  383
  403
  425
  447
  470
  495
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  63
  76
  87
  98
  109
  119
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  185
  197
  210
  222
  236
  250
  264
  279
  294
  311
  328
  345
  364
  383
  403
  425
  447
  470
  495
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  229
  238
  247
  257
  269
  282
  298
  315
  334
  355
  339
  364
  392
  421
  453
  487
  523
  563
  605
  649
  697
  748
  803
  860
  922
  987
  1,056
  1,129
  1,207
  1,290
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Cash available for distribution, $m
  197
  200
  202
  207
  213
  222
  232
  243
  257
  272
  251
  270
  291
  314
  340
  367
  397
  429
  463
  500
  539
  582
  627
  675
  727
  782
  840
  902
  968
  1,038
Discount rate, %
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  188
  180
  173
  166
  160
  154
  148
  143
  137
  131
  108
  103
  97
  91
  85
  78
  70
  63
  56
  48
  41
  35
  29
  23
  19
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Flowserve Corporation is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The Company's segments include Engineered Product Division, Industrial Product Division and Flow Control Division. Its geographic segments include North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa, and Latin America. It develops and manufactures precision-engineered flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customer's critical processes. Its product portfolio of pumps, valves, seals, automation and aftermarket services supports infrastructure industries, including oil and gas, chemical, power generation and water management. It offers aftermarket equipment services, such as installation, diagnostics, repair and retrofitting through manufacturing platform and network of Quick Response Centers. Its products include oil and gas, general industries, chemical, power generation and water management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flowserve (FLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 49.1
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27
Price to Free Cash Flow 43.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 92%
Total Debt to Equity 97.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 74.2%

FLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3661 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flowserve. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Flowserve. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for FLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flowserve, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flowserve.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $727 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Flowserve.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flowserve. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLS stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLS are equal to 58%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flowserve operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLS is equal to 12.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1655 million for Flowserve - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131 million for Flowserve is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flowserve at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Flowserve (FLS) Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates   [Aug-08-18 05:15PM  Zacks]
▶ Flowserve: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Biogen and American Express rise; Symantec plunges   [May-11-18 04:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Flowserve: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cisco, Flowserve, Twitter & JD.com   [May-07-18 02:13PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Flowserve reports 4Q loss   [Feb-15-18 04:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Flowserve Corp. : December 7, 2017   [Dec-07-17 01:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Did Flowserve Fall on November 2?   [10:31AM  Market Realist]
▶ Why Flowserve Stock Dropped 11% Thursday   [Nov-02-17 06:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Flowserve tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-01-17 04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Flowserve Corp. : October 30, 2017   [Oct-30-17 11:49AM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 11th   [Oct-11-17 09:05AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Flowserve Corp. : October 5, 2017   [Oct-05-17 11:01AM  Capital Cube]
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