Intrinsic value of Flowserve - FLS

Previous Close

$45.40

  Intrinsic Value

$54.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+20%

Previous close

$45.40

 
Intrinsic value

$54.56

 
Up/down potential

+20%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  4,064
  4,486
  4,928
  5,390
  5,872
  6,374
  6,896
  7,438
  8,002
  8,589
  9,198
  9,831
  10,489
  11,173
  11,885
  12,626
  13,398
  14,202
  15,040
  15,914
  16,826
  17,778
  18,772
  19,810
  20,895
  22,030
  23,217
  24,459
  25,759
  27,119
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,044
  3,346
  3,662
  3,992
  4,335
  4,694
  5,066
  5,454
  5,856
  6,275
  6,567
  7,019
  7,489
  7,978
  8,486
  9,015
  9,566
  10,140
  10,738
  11,362
  12,013
  12,693
  13,403
  14,144
  14,919
  15,729
  16,577
  17,463
  18,391
  19,363
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  742
  758
  775
  792
  809
  827
  845
  864
  883
  902
  922
  943
  963
  985
  1,006
  1,028
  1,051
  1,074
  1,098
  1,122
  1,147
  1,172
  1,198
  1,224
  1,251
  1,278
  1,307
  1,335
  1,365
  1,395
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,786
  4,104
  4,437
  4,784
  5,144
  5,521
  5,911
  6,318
  6,739
  7,177
  7,489
  7,962
  8,452
  8,963
  9,492
  10,043
  10,617
  11,214
  11,836
  12,484
  13,160
  13,865
  14,601
  15,368
  16,170
  17,007
  17,884
  18,798
  19,756
  20,758
Operating income, $m
  277
  382
  492
  607
  727
  853
  984
  1,121
  1,263
  1,411
  1,708
  1,869
  2,037
  2,211
  2,393
  2,583
  2,781
  2,988
  3,204
  3,430
  3,666
  3,913
  4,171
  4,442
  4,725
  5,023
  5,334
  5,660
  6,003
  6,362
EBITDA, $m
  508
  621
  741
  866
  996
  1,133
  1,275
  1,423
  1,578
  1,739
  1,906
  2,081
  2,262
  2,451
  2,649
  2,855
  3,069
  3,293
  3,527
  3,772
  4,028
  4,295
  4,575
  4,868
  5,175
  5,496
  5,833
  6,186
  6,557
  6,945
Interest expense (income), $m
  57
  85
  104
  125
  146
  168
  191
  215
  240
  266
  293
  321
  351
  381
  413
  445
  480
  515
  552
  591
  631
  673
  717
  762
  810
  860
  912
  967
  1,023
  1,083
  1,145
Earnings before tax, $m
  192
  278
  367
  461
  559
  662
  769
  880
  997
  1,118
  1,387
  1,518
  1,656
  1,799
  1,948
  2,103
  2,266
  2,436
  2,613
  2,799
  2,993
  3,196
  3,409
  3,632
  3,866
  4,110
  4,367
  4,637
  4,920
  5,216
Tax expense, $m
  52
  75
  99
  125
  151
  179
  208
  238
  269
  302
  374
  410
  447
  486
  526
  568
  612
  658
  706
  756
  808
  863
  920
  981
  1,044
  1,110
  1,179
  1,252
  1,328
  1,408
Net income, $m
  140
  203
  268
  337
  408
  483
  561
  643
  728
  816
  1,012
  1,108
  1,209
  1,313
  1,422
  1,535
  1,654
  1,778
  1,908
  2,043
  2,185
  2,333
  2,489
  2,651
  2,822
  3,001
  3,188
  3,385
  3,591
  3,808

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,447
  6,014
  6,607
  7,226
  7,872
  8,544
  9,244
  9,971
  10,727
  11,513
  12,329
  13,178
  14,060
  14,978
  15,932
  16,926
  17,960
  19,038
  20,161
  21,333
  22,555
  23,831
  25,163
  26,555
  28,010
  29,531
  31,122
  32,787
  34,529
  36,353
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,447
  6,014
  6,607
  7,226
  7,872
  8,544
  9,244
  9,971
  10,727
  11,513
  12,329
  13,178
  14,060
  14,978
  15,932
  16,926
  17,960
  19,038
  20,161
  21,333
  22,555
  23,831
  25,163
  26,555
  28,010
  29,531
  31,122
  32,787
  34,529
  36,353
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
Average production assets, $m
  1,564
  1,727
  1,897
  2,075
  2,261
  2,454
  2,655
  2,864
  3,081
  3,307
  3,541
  3,785
  4,038
  4,302
  4,576
  4,861
  5,158
  5,468
  5,790
  6,127
  6,478
  6,844
  7,227
  7,627
  8,045
  8,482
  8,939
  9,417
  9,917
  10,441
Working capital, $m
  764
  843
  927
  1,013
  1,104
  1,198
  1,296
  1,398
  1,504
  1,615
  1,729
  1,848
  1,972
  2,101
  2,234
  2,374
  2,519
  2,670
  2,828
  2,992
  3,163
  3,342
  3,529
  3,724
  3,928
  4,142
  4,365
  4,598
  4,843
  5,098
Total debt, $m
  1,931
  2,306
  2,699
  3,110
  3,538
  3,984
  4,448
  4,930
  5,432
  5,952
  6,494
  7,056
  7,641
  8,250
  8,882
  9,541
  10,227
  10,941
  11,686
  12,463
  13,273
  14,119
  15,002
  15,925
  16,890
  17,898
  18,953
  20,057
  21,212
  22,421
Total liabilities, $m
  3,611
  3,987
  4,380
  4,791
  5,219
  5,665
  6,129
  6,611
  7,112
  7,633
  8,174
  8,737
  9,322
  9,930
  10,563
  11,222
  11,908
  12,622
  13,367
  14,143
  14,954
  15,800
  16,683
  17,606
  18,570
  19,579
  20,634
  21,738
  22,893
  24,102
Total equity, $m
  1,836
  2,027
  2,226
  2,435
  2,653
  2,879
  3,115
  3,360
  3,615
  3,880
  4,155
  4,441
  4,738
  5,047
  5,369
  5,704
  6,053
  6,416
  6,794
  7,189
  7,601
  8,031
  8,480
  8,949
  9,439
  9,952
  10,488
  11,049
  11,636
  12,251
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,447
  6,014
  6,606
  7,226
  7,872
  8,544
  9,244
  9,971
  10,727
  11,513
  12,329
  13,178
  14,060
  14,977
  15,932
  16,926
  17,961
  19,038
  20,161
  21,332
  22,555
  23,831
  25,163
  26,555
  28,009
  29,531
  31,122
  32,787
  34,529
  36,353
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.050
  1.140
  1.210
  1.280
  1.330
  1.380
  1.430
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  140
  203
  268
  337
  408
  483
  561
  643
  728
  816
  1,012
  1,108
  1,209
  1,313
  1,422
  1,535
  1,654
  1,778
  1,908
  2,043
  2,185
  2,333
  2,489
  2,651
  2,822
  3,001
  3,188
  3,385
  3,591
  3,808
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  303
  315
  328
  198
  211
  226
  240
  256
  272
  288
  305
  323
  342
  362
  382
  404
  426
  449
  474
  499
  526
  554
  583
Funds from operations, $m
  371
  442
  517
  595
  677
  763
  852
  946
  1,043
  1,144
  1,210
  1,320
  1,434
  1,553
  1,677
  1,807
  1,942
  2,083
  2,231
  2,385
  2,547
  2,716
  2,892
  3,077
  3,271
  3,474
  3,688
  3,911
  4,145
  4,391
Change in working capital, $m
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
Cash from operations, $m
  295
  363
  434
  509
  587
  669
  754
  844
  936
  1,033
  1,096
  1,201
  1,310
  1,425
  1,544
  1,668
  1,797
  1,932
  2,074
  2,221
  2,375
  2,537
  2,705
  2,882
  3,067
  3,261
  3,464
  3,677
  3,901
  4,135
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -137
  -148
  -160
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -226
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -342
  -362
  -382
  -404
  -426
  -449
  -474
  -499
  -526
  -554
New CAPEX, $m
  -154
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -253
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -310
  -323
  -336
  -351
  -366
  -383
  -400
  -418
  -437
  -457
  -478
  -500
  -524
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -233
  -250
  -266
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -338
  -357
  -377
  -398
  -420
  -442
  -464
  -490
  -514
  -541
  -569
  -598
  -628
  -659
  -693
  -728
  -765
  -804
  -844
  -886
  -931
  -977
  -1,026
  -1,078
Free cash flow, $m
  62
  112
  167
  225
  285
  349
  416
  486
  559
  636
  677
  759
  846
  935
  1,029
  1,127
  1,228
  1,335
  1,445
  1,561
  1,682
  1,808
  1,940
  2,079
  2,223
  2,375
  2,534
  2,700
  2,875
  3,058
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  356
  376
  393
  411
  428
  446
  464
  482
  501
  521
  541
  563
  585
  608
  633
  659
  686
  715
  745
  777
  810
  846
  883
  923
  965
  1,009
  1,055
  1,104
  1,155
  1,209
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  397
  376
  393
  411
  428
  446
  464
  482
  501
  521
  541
  563
  585
  608
  633
  659
  686
  715
  745
  777
  810
  846
  883
  923
  965
  1,009
  1,055
  1,104
  1,155
  1,209
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  458
  488
  560
  635
  714
  795
  880
  969
  1,061
  1,157
  1,218
  1,322
  1,431
  1,544
  1,662
  1,785
  1,914
  2,049
  2,190
  2,338
  2,492
  2,654
  2,824
  3,001
  3,188
  3,383
  3,588
  3,804
  4,030
  4,267
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -322
  -335
  -349
  -363
  -379
  -395
  -412
  -430
  -449
  -469
  -490
  -513
  -536
  -561
  -587
  -615
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  277
  297
  360
  427
  496
  569
  644
  723
  806
  892
  943
  1,036
  1,133
  1,235
  1,340
  1,451
  1,566
  1,686
  1,812
  1,943
  2,080
  2,224
  2,375
  2,532
  2,698
  2,871
  3,052
  3,243
  3,443
  3,652
Discount rate, %
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  264
  268
  306
  339
  367
  389
  406
  416
  419
  416
  392
  380
  363
  341
  317
  289
  260
  230
  201
  172
  145
  120
  97
  77
  60
  46
  34
  25
  17
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3

Flowserve Corporation is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The Company's segments include Engineered Product Division, Industrial Product Division and Flow Control Division. Its geographic segments include North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa, and Latin America. It develops and manufactures precision-engineered flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customer's critical processes. Its product portfolio of pumps, valves, seals, automation and aftermarket services supports infrastructure industries, including oil and gas, chemical, power generation and water management. It offers aftermarket equipment services, such as installation, diagnostics, repair and retrofitting through manufacturing platform and network of Quick Response Centers. Its products include oil and gas, general industries, chemical, power generation and water management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flowserve (FLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.6
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 92%
Total Debt to Equity 97.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 74.2%

FLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3660.831 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flowserve. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Flowserve. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for FLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flowserve, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flowserve.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $726 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Flowserve.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flowserve. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLS are equal to 38.5%.

Life of production assets of 17.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flowserve operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLS is equal to 18.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1654.587 million for Flowserve - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130.853 million for Flowserve is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flowserve at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Flowserve Announces 2018 Analyst Day   [Nov-27-18 09:00AM  Business Wire]
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▶ MarketPulse: Industrials Wounded as GE Nosedives   [Nov-09-18 03:25PM  Investing.com]
▶ Flowserve: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:20PM  Associated Press]
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▶ 5 Stocks In Bullish Trends Right Now   [Sep-20-18 01:41PM  Benzinga]
▶ Flowserve (FLS) Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates   [Aug-08-18 05:15PM  Zacks]
▶ Flowserve: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Biogen and American Express rise; Symantec plunges   [May-11-18 04:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Flowserve: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cisco, Flowserve, Twitter & JD.com   [May-07-18 02:13PM  CNBC Videos]

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