Intrinsic value of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A - FLWS

Previous Close

$12.98

  Intrinsic Value

$16.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+29%

Previous close

$12.98

 
Intrinsic value

$16.77

 
Up/down potential

+29%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLWS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.10
  2.39
  2.65
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,219
  1,248
  1,281
  1,318
  1,359
  1,403
  1,452
  1,504
  1,561
  1,621
  1,686
  1,755
  1,828
  1,906
  1,989
  2,076
  2,169
  2,267
  2,371
  2,480
  2,595
  2,717
  2,845
  2,980
  3,122
  3,271
  3,429
  3,594
  3,769
  3,952
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,019
  1,043
  1,070
  1,100
  1,134
  1,171
  1,211
  1,254
  1,301
  1,351
  1,392
  1,449
  1,509
  1,574
  1,642
  1,714
  1,791
  1,872
  1,957
  2,047
  2,143
  2,243
  2,349
  2,460
  2,577
  2,701
  2,831
  2,968
  3,111
  3,263
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  156
  160
  163
  167
  171
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  199
  203
  207
  212
  217
  221
  226
  231
  236
  242
  247
  252
  258
  264
  269
  275
  281
  288
  294
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,175
  1,203
  1,233
  1,267
  1,305
  1,345
  1,389
  1,436
  1,487
  1,541
  1,586
  1,648
  1,712
  1,781
  1,854
  1,931
  2,012
  2,098
  2,188
  2,283
  2,385
  2,490
  2,601
  2,718
  2,841
  2,970
  3,106
  3,249
  3,399
  3,557
Operating income, $m
  44
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  100
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  157
  169
  182
  196
  211
  227
  244
  262
  281
  301
  322
  345
  370
  395
EBITDA, $m
  82
  85
  88
  91
  96
  101
  106
  113
  120
  127
  136
  145
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  218
  233
  249
  267
  285
  305
  326
  348
  371
  396
  423
  451
  480
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  89
  96
  103
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  163
  176
  190
  204
  220
  236
  254
  272
  292
  313
  335
  359
Tax expense, $m
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  97
Net income, $m
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  65
  70
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  111
  119
  129
  138
  149
  160
  172
  185
  199
  213
  228
  245
  262

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  531
  544
  559
  575
  593
  612
  633
  656
  681
  707
  735
  765
  797
  831
  867
  906
  946
  989
  1,034
  1,081
  1,132
  1,185
  1,241
  1,299
  1,361
  1,427
  1,495
  1,568
  1,644
  1,723
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  531
  544
  559
  575
  593
  612
  633
  656
  681
  707
  735
  765
  797
  831
  867
  906
  946
  989
  1,034
  1,081
  1,132
  1,185
  1,241
  1,299
  1,361
  1,427
  1,495
  1,568
  1,644
  1,723
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.296
  2.294
  2.292
  2.292
  2.292
  2.292
  2.294
  2.293
  2.292
  2.293
  2.294
  2.294
  2.294
  2.294
  2.294
  2.291
  2.293
  2.292
  2.293
  2.294
  2.292
  2.293
  2.293
  2.294
  2.294
  2.292
  2.294
  2.292
  2.293
  2.294
Average production assets, $m
  241
  247
  254
  261
  269
  278
  287
  298
  309
  321
  334
  347
  362
  377
  394
  411
  429
  449
  469
  491
  514
  538
  563
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
  746
  782
Working capital, $m
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
Total debt, $m
  114
  120
  128
  136
  145
  155
  165
  177
  189
  203
  217
  232
  248
  265
  284
  303
  323
  345
  368
  392
  417
  444
  472
  502
  533
  566
  601
  637
  675
  716
Total liabilities, $m
  268
  275
  282
  290
  299
  309
  320
  331
  344
  357
  371
  386
  403
  420
  438
  457
  478
  499
  522
  546
  572
  598
  626
  656
  687
  720
  755
  792
  830
  870
Total equity, $m
  263
  269
  277
  284
  293
  303
  313
  325
  337
  350
  364
  379
  395
  412
  429
  448
  468
  489
  512
  535
  560
  586
  614
  643
  674
  706
  740
  776
  814
  853
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  531
  544
  559
  574
  592
  612
  633
  656
  681
  707
  735
  765
  798
  832
  867
  905
  946
  988
  1,034
  1,081
  1,132
  1,184
  1,240
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,495
  1,568
  1,644
  1,723
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  65
  70
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  111
  119
  129
  138
  149
  160
  172
  185
  199
  213
  228
  245
  262
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
Funds from operations, $m
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  101
  108
  115
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  170
  182
  194
  208
  222
  236
  252
  269
  287
  306
  326
  347
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  99
  102
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  150
  160
  171
  183
  195
  209
  223
  238
  254
  270
  288
  307
  327
  349
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -117
Free cash flow, $m
  36
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  54
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  119
  129
  139
  150
  161
  174
  187
  201
  215
  231
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  41
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  55
  58
  62
  67
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  100
  107
  116
  125
  134
  145
  155
  167
  179
  193
  207
  221
  237
  254
  271
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  60
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  54
  54
  59
  63
  69
  74
  81
  87
  95
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
  150
  162
  174
  187
  201
  216
  232
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  58
  33
  32
  31
  31
  30
  30
  29
  29
  28
  26
  25
  24
  23
  22
  20
  19
  17
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. is a provider of gourmet food and floral gifts for all occasions. The Company offers gifts for every occasion, including fresh flowers and a selection of plants, gift baskets, gourmet foods, confections, candles, balloons and stuffed animals. The Company operates through three business segments: Consumer Floral, Gourmet Food and Gift Baskets, and BloomNet Wire Service. The Consumer Floral segment includes the operations of the Company's flagship brand, 1-800-Flowers.com, FruitBouquets.com and Flowerama. The Gourmet Food and Gift Baskets segment includes the operations of Harry & David (which includes Wolferman's, Moose Munch and Stockyards.com), Cheryl's (which includes Mrs. Beasley's), The Popcorn Factory, DesignPac and 1-800-Baskets. The BloomNet Wire Service segment includes the operations of BloomNet and Napco.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A (FLWS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.2
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 36.2%
Total Debt to Equity 38.7%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 13.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Equity 16.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Effective Tax Rate 21.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLWS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLWS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1193.625 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLWS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLWS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLWS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $153 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLWS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLWS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLWS are equal to 19.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLWS is equal to -0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $282.239 million for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.037 million for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 1-800-Flowers.com: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Harry & David plans holiday pop-up stores   [08:46AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ How Much Money Does 1-800-FLOWERSCOM Inc (NASDAQ:FLWS) Make?   [Oct-12-18 07:50AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Introducing Wild Beauty From 1-800-Flowers.com®   [Oct-11-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Introducing Harry & David® Gourmet   [Sep-25-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ 1-800 Flowers Q4 Earnings Preview   [Aug-22-18 02:44PM  Benzinga]
▶ Should You Buy 1-800-FLOWERSCOM Inc (NASDAQ:FLWS)?   [Aug-20-18 03:04PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 08:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ 1-800 Flowers Q3 Earnings Preview   [Apr-30-18 03:06PM  Benzinga]
▶ Heres the shocking amount Americans are spending on weddings   [Mar-28-18 10:54AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ 1-800-FLOWERS.COM CEO: A 'fifth wave' of retail is emerging   [Mar-07-18 10:25AM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ 1-800-FLOWERS.COM CEO on the 'fifth wave' of retail   [09:38AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Stocks That Will Warm Your Heart on Valentine's Day   [Feb-13-18 04:45PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ [$$] 1-800-Flowers.com Shares Fall on Lowered Guidance   [12:15PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com meets 2Q profit forecasts   [07:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. Launches Simply Chocolate   [Nov-17-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Stocks Under $10 That Soared Today   [Nov-14-17 05:07PM  Zacks]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com reports 1Q loss   [07:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Napco Unveils 2018 Spring & Garden Trends Report   [Oct-23-17 03:26PM  Business Wire]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Aug-24-17 09:57PM  Associated Press]

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