Intrinsic value of FMC - FMC

Previous Close

$88.81

  Intrinsic Value

$2.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$88.81

 
Intrinsic value

$2.72

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.15
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  3,282
  3,505
  3,737
  3,979
  4,230
  4,491
  4,763
  5,047
  5,343
  5,652
  5,974
  6,310
  6,661
  7,028
  7,411
  7,812
  8,232
  8,671
  9,131
  9,612
  10,116
  10,644
  11,197
  11,776
  12,384
  13,021
  13,689
  14,389
  15,124
  15,894
  16,702
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,551
  3,783
  4,024
  4,275
  4,536
  4,808
  5,091
  5,386
  5,695
  6,016
  6,302
  6,653
  7,019
  7,402
  7,803
  8,222
  8,661
  9,120
  9,600
  10,104
  10,631
  11,183
  11,762
  12,369
  13,005
  13,672
  14,372
  15,106
  15,875
  16,682
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,844
  3,551
  3,783
  4,024
  4,275
  4,536
  4,808
  5,091
  5,386
  5,695
  6,016
  6,302
  6,653
  7,019
  7,402
  7,803
  8,222
  8,661
  9,120
  9,600
  10,104
  10,631
  11,183
  11,762
  12,369
  13,005
  13,672
  14,372
  15,106
  15,875
  16,682
Operating income, $m
  439
  -46
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -43
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
EBITDA, $m
  576
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  195
  205
  217
  228
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  312
  328
  345
  363
  382
  401
  422
  444
  466
  490
  515
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  75
  87
  99
  111
  124
  137
  151
  166
  181
  197
  214
  231
  249
  268
  288
  308
  330
  353
  376
  401
  427
  454
  483
  512
  544
  576
  611
  647
  685
  724
Earnings before tax, $m
  339
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -182
  -195
  -209
  -224
  -240
  -206
  -223
  -241
  -259
  -278
  -298
  -320
  -342
  -365
  -389
  -414
  -441
  -468
  -498
  -528
  -560
  -594
  -629
  -666
  -704
Tax expense, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  209
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -182
  -195
  -209
  -224
  -240
  -206
  -223
  -241
  -259
  -278
  -298
  -320
  -342
  -365
  -389
  -414
  -441
  -468
  -498
  -528
  -560
  -594
  -629
  -666
  -704

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,139
  6,491
  6,921
  7,368
  7,833
  8,317
  8,821
  9,347
  9,894
  10,466
  11,062
  11,685
  12,335
  13,014
  13,725
  14,467
  15,244
  16,057
  16,908
  17,799
  18,733
  19,710
  20,735
  21,808
  22,933
  24,113
  25,350
  26,647
  28,007
  29,434
  30,930
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,075
  6,491
  6,921
  7,368
  7,833
  8,317
  8,821
  9,347
  9,894
  10,466
  11,062
  11,685
  12,335
  13,014
  13,725
  14,467
  15,244
  16,057
  16,908
  17,799
  18,733
  19,710
  20,735
  21,808
  22,933
  24,113
  25,350
  26,647
  28,007
  29,434
  30,930
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
Average production assets, $m
  1,556
  1,661
  1,771
  1,886
  2,005
  2,129
  2,258
  2,392
  2,533
  2,679
  2,831
  2,991
  3,157
  3,331
  3,513
  3,703
  3,902
  4,110
  4,328
  4,556
  4,795
  5,045
  5,307
  5,582
  5,870
  6,172
  6,489
  6,821
  7,169
  7,534
  7,917
Working capital, $m
  1,411
  1,539
  1,641
  1,747
  1,857
  1,972
  2,091
  2,216
  2,346
  2,481
  2,622
  2,770
  2,924
  3,085
  3,254
  3,430
  3,614
  3,807
  4,008
  4,220
  4,441
  4,673
  4,915
  5,170
  5,437
  5,716
  6,009
  6,317
  6,639
  6,978
  7,332
Total debt, $m
  1,893
  2,113
  2,404
  2,707
  3,023
  3,351
  3,693
  4,049
  4,420
  4,808
  5,212
  5,634
  6,075
  6,536
  7,017
  7,521
  8,048
  8,599
  9,176
  9,780
  10,413
  11,076
  11,770
  12,498
  13,261
  14,061
  14,899
  15,779
  16,701
  17,668
  18,683
Total liabilities, $m
  4,182
  4,401
  4,692
  4,995
  5,311
  5,639
  5,981
  6,337
  6,708
  7,096
  7,500
  7,922
  8,363
  8,824
  9,305
  9,809
  10,336
  10,887
  11,464
  12,068
  12,701
  13,364
  14,058
  14,786
  15,549
  16,349
  17,187
  18,067
  18,989
  19,956
  20,971
Total equity, $m
  1,958
  2,090
  2,228
  2,372
  2,522
  2,678
  2,840
  3,010
  3,186
  3,370
  3,562
  3,762
  3,972
  4,191
  4,419
  4,658
  4,909
  5,170
  5,445
  5,731
  6,032
  6,347
  6,677
  7,022
  7,385
  7,764
  8,163
  8,580
  9,018
  9,478
  9,960
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,140
  6,491
  6,920
  7,367
  7,833
  8,317
  8,821
  9,347
  9,894
  10,466
  11,062
  11,684
  12,335
  13,015
  13,724
  14,467
  15,245
  16,057
  16,909
  17,799
  18,733
  19,711
  20,735
  21,808
  22,934
  24,113
  25,350
  26,647
  28,007
  29,434
  30,931
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.967
  1.010
  1.080
  1.140
  1.200
  1.250
  1.300
  1.350
  1.390
  1.430
  1.460
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.690
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.830
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  209
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -182
  -195
  -209
  -224
  -240
  -206
  -223
  -241
  -259
  -278
  -298
  -320
  -342
  -365
  -389
  -414
  -441
  -468
  -498
  -528
  -560
  -594
  -629
  -666
  -704
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  137
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  187
  197
  208
  220
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  300
  315
  332
  349
  367
  386
  406
  426
  448
  471
  495
Funds from operations, $m
  433
  33
  29
  24
  19
  15
  9
  4
  -1
  -7
  -13
  -19
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -55
  -63
  -71
  -80
  -89
  -99
  -109
  -120
  -131
  -142
  -154
  -167
  -181
  -195
  -209
Change in working capital, $m
  -65
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  355
Cash from operations, $m
  498
  -65
  -73
  -82
  -91
  -100
  -110
  -120
  -131
  -142
  -154
  -167
  -180
  -193
  -208
  -223
  -239
  -255
  -273
  -291
  -310
  -331
  -352
  -374
  -397
  -422
  -448
  -475
  -503
  -533
  -564
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -220
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -315
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -386
  -406
  -426
  -448
  -471
New CAPEX, $m
  -131
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -332
  -348
  -365
  -383
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -135
  -202
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -290
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
  -390
  -410
  -430
  -452
  -475
  -498
  -524
  -550
  -577
  -607
  -637
  -669
  -703
  -738
  -774
  -813
  -854
Free cash flow, $m
  363
  -268
  -287
  -307
  -328
  -349
  -372
  -396
  -421
  -447
  -474
  -503
  -533
  -565
  -598
  -633
  -669
  -707
  -748
  -790
  -834
  -880
  -929
  -980
  -1,034
  -1,091
  -1,150
  -1,212
  -1,278
  -1,346
  -1,418
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -259
  284
  291
  303
  315
  328
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  527
  551
  577
  604
  633
  663
  695
  728
  763
  800
  839
  879
  922
  967
  1,015
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  253
  270
  288
  306
  324
  344
  364
  386
  408
  432
  407
  432
  459
  488
  517
  549
  581
  616
  652
  689
  729
  770
  814
  860
  908
  958
  1,011
  1,067
  1,125
  1,186
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -288
  537
  561
  591
  621
  652
  686
  720
  757
  795
  836
  829
  873
  920
  970
  1,021
  1,076
  1,132
  1,193
  1,256
  1,322
  1,392
  1,465
  1,542
  1,623
  1,708
  1,797
  1,890
  1,989
  2,092
  2,201
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  75
  269
  275
  284
  293
  303
  314
  325
  336
  349
  362
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  536
  561
  588
  617
  647
  678
  711
  746
  783
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -92
  -253
  -270
  -288
  -306
  -324
  -344
  -364
  -386
  -408
  -432
  -407
  -432
  -459
  -488
  -517
  -549
  -581
  -616
  -652
  -689
  -729
  -770
  -814
  -860
  -908
  -958
  -1,011
  -1,067
  -1,125
  -1,186
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  4
  -4
  -12
  -21
  -30
  -40
  -49
  -60
  -70
  -81
  -92
  -104
  -116
  -129
  -142
  -156
  -171
  -186
  -201
  -218
  -235
  -253
  -271
  -291
  -311
  -333
  -355
  -379
  -403
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  4
  -3
  -9
  -14
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.9
  95.9
  93.9
  91.9
  90.0
  88.2
  86.4
  84.6
  82.8
  81.1
  79.6
  78.2
  76.7
  75.3
  73.8
  72.4
  71.0
  69.7
  68.3
  67.0
  65.7
  64.4
  63.2
  61.9
  60.7
  59.5
  58.3
  57.1
  56.0
  54.8

FMC Corporation is a diversified chemical company serving agricultural, consumer and industrial markets. The Company operates in three business segments: FMC Agricultural Solutions, FMC Health and Nutrition, and FMC Lithium. As of December 31, 2016, the FMC Agricultural Solutions segment developed, marketed and sold three classes of crop protection chemicals: insecticides, herbicides and fungicides. The Company's FMC Agricultural Solutions segment operates in the agrochemicals industry. This segment develops, manufactures and sells a portfolio of professional pest control, and lawn and garden products. The FMC Health and Nutrition segment focuses on nutritional ingredients, health excipients and functional health ingredients. The Company's FMC Health and Nutrition segment focuses on food ingredients, pharmaceutical excipients and omega-3 oils. The Company's FMC Lithium segment manufactures lithium for use in a range of lithium products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FMC (FMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 56.8
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 91.9%
Total Debt to Equity 96.7%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
EBITDA Margin 17%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 13.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Payout Ratio 42.6%

FMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3282 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FMC. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of FMC. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for FMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FMC, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FMC.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for FMC.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FMC. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FMC are equal to 47.4%.

Life of production assets of 16 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FMC operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FMC is equal to 43.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1958 million for FMC - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 134.109 million for FMC is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FMC at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.9 billion.

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Financial statements of FMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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