Intrinsic value of Finisar - FNSR

Previous Close

$22.35

  Intrinsic Value

$13.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-38%

Previous close

$22.35

 
Intrinsic value

$13.90

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FNSR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,343
  1,374
  1,409
  1,449
  1,493
  1,541
  1,593
  1,650
  1,711
  1,777
  1,847
  1,922
  2,002
  2,087
  2,177
  2,272
  2,373
  2,480
  2,593
  2,712
  2,838
  2,970
  3,110
  3,257
  3,412
  3,575
  3,747
  3,928
  4,118
  4,318
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,179
  1,206
  1,236
  1,271
  1,309
  1,351
  1,396
  1,446
  1,499
  1,556
  1,606
  1,671
  1,740
  1,814
  1,892
  1,975
  2,063
  2,156
  2,254
  2,357
  2,467
  2,582
  2,703
  2,831
  2,966
  3,108
  3,257
  3,415
  3,580
  3,754
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,179
  1,206
  1,236
  1,271
  1,309
  1,351
  1,396
  1,446
  1,499
  1,556
  1,606
  1,671
  1,740
  1,814
  1,892
  1,975
  2,063
  2,156
  2,254
  2,357
  2,467
  2,582
  2,703
  2,831
  2,966
  3,108
  3,257
  3,415
  3,580
  3,754
Operating income, $m
  164
  168
  173
  178
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  221
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
  406
  426
  446
  467
  490
  513
  538
  564
EBITDA, $m
  272
  278
  285
  293
  302
  312
  323
  334
  347
  360
  374
  389
  406
  423
  441
  460
  481
  502
  525
  549
  575
  602
  630
  660
  691
  724
  759
  796
  834
  875
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
Earnings before tax, $m
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
  366
  384
  403
  422
  443
Tax expense, $m
  34
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
Net income, $m
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,626
  1,663
  1,706
  1,754
  1,807
  1,865
  1,929
  1,998
  2,072
  2,151
  2,236
  2,327
  2,424
  2,526
  2,635
  2,751
  2,873
  3,002
  3,139
  3,283
  3,435
  3,596
  3,765
  3,943
  4,131
  4,329
  4,537
  4,756
  4,986
  5,228
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,626
  1,663
  1,706
  1,754
  1,807
  1,865
  1,929
  1,998
  2,072
  2,151
  2,236
  2,327
  2,424
  2,526
  2,635
  2,751
  2,873
  3,002
  3,139
  3,283
  3,435
  3,596
  3,765
  3,943
  4,131
  4,329
  4,537
  4,756
  4,986
  5,228
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
Average production assets, $m
  521
  533
  547
  562
  579
  598
  618
  640
  664
  689
  717
  746
  777
  810
  845
  882
  921
  962
  1,006
  1,052
  1,101
  1,152
  1,207
  1,264
  1,324
  1,387
  1,454
  1,524
  1,598
  1,676
Working capital, $m
  440
  451
  462
  475
  490
  505
  523
  541
  561
  583
  606
  630
  657
  684
  714
  745
  778
  813
  850
  889
  931
  974
  1,020
  1,068
  1,119
  1,173
  1,229
  1,288
  1,351
  1,416
Total debt, $m
  755
  772
  791
  812
  836
  862
  890
  921
  954
  989
  1,027
  1,067
  1,110
  1,156
  1,205
  1,256
  1,310
  1,368
  1,429
  1,493
  1,561
  1,632
  1,707
  1,787
  1,870
  1,958
  2,051
  2,148
  2,251
  2,358
Total liabilities, $m
  723
  740
  759
  780
  804
  830
  858
  889
  922
  957
  995
  1,036
  1,079
  1,124
  1,173
  1,224
  1,279
  1,336
  1,397
  1,461
  1,529
  1,600
  1,675
  1,755
  1,838
  1,926
  2,019
  2,116
  2,219
  2,327
Total equity, $m
  902
  923
  947
  973
  1,003
  1,035
  1,071
  1,109
  1,150
  1,194
  1,241
  1,291
  1,345
  1,402
  1,463
  1,527
  1,595
  1,666
  1,742
  1,822
  1,907
  1,996
  2,090
  2,188
  2,293
  2,402
  2,518
  2,639
  2,767
  2,902
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,625
  1,663
  1,706
  1,753
  1,807
  1,865
  1,929
  1,998
  2,072
  2,151
  2,236
  2,327
  2,424
  2,526
  2,636
  2,751
  2,874
  3,002
  3,139
  3,283
  3,436
  3,596
  3,765
  3,943
  4,131
  4,328
  4,537
  4,755
  4,986
  5,229
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  130
  134
  139
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  171
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
Funds from operations, $m
  199
  203
  208
  214
  221
  228
  236
  244
  253
  263
  270
  281
  293
  305
  319
  333
  347
  363
  380
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  500
  524
  550
  576
  604
  634
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
Cash from operations, $m
  190
  193
  197
  201
  206
  212
  218
  225
  233
  241
  247
  256
  267
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
  568
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -95
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -296
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -105
  -108
  -113
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -143
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -324
  -339
  -356
  -374
Free cash flow, $m
  85
  84
  84
  85
  85
  86
  87
  89
  91
  93
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  108
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  108
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  100
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  124
  128
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  739
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  822
  80
  80
  79
  79
  80
  80
  81
  83
  84
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  168
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  788
  74
  69
  65
  62
  58
  54
  51
  47
  44
  39
  36
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Finisar Corporation (Finisar) is a provider of optical subsystems and components that are used in data communication and telecommunication applications. The Company's optical subsystems consist of transmitters, receivers, transceivers, transponders and active optical cables, which provide the fundamental optical-electrical or optoelectronic interface for interconnecting the electronic equipment used in these networks, including the switches, routers, and servers used in wireline networks. These products rely on the use of semiconductor lasers and photodetectors in conjunction with integrated circuits and optoelectronic packaging to provide a means for transmitting and receiving digital signals over fiber optic cable at speeds ranging from less than one gigabit per second (Gbps), to more than 100 Gbps, over distances of less than 10 meters to more than 2,000 kilometers, using a range of network protocols and physical configurations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Finisar (FNSR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 29
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.3%
Total Debt to Equity 45.3%
Interest Coverage 164
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 13.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 18.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
EBITDA Margin 17.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Operating Margin 12.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Net Profit Margin 17.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Effective Tax Rate -52.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

FNSR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FNSR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1316.483 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Finisar. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Finisar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FNSR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FNSR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Finisar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Finisar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FNSR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FNSR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Finisar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Finisar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FNSR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FNSR are equal to 38.8%.

Life of production assets of 5.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Finisar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FNSR is equal to 32.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1623.617 million for Finisar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 117.156 million for Finisar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Finisar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Finisar Shares Rose 40% Last Month   [Dec-10-18 09:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Finisar: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lumentum Slashes Guidance As Customer Cuts Orders, Apple Stock Falls   [Nov-12-18 04:26PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Apple Supplier Finisar Gets Snapped Up for $3.2 Billion   [Nov-10-18 01:33PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Why Shares of II-VI Tumbled Today   [11:49AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Finisar Innovators to Speak at ECOC 2018 in Rome   [Sep-17-18 05:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Tesla and Southern drop while Broadcom rises   [Sep-07-18 04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Shares of Finisar Corp. Popped Today   [12:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Finisar: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Day Ahead: Top 3 Things to Watch   [Sep-05-18 07:39PM  Investing.com]
▶ 3 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week   [Aug-31-18 11:38AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Finisar (FNSR) Surges: Stock Moves 7% Higher   [Aug-24-18 10:35AM  Zacks]
▶ Will Finisar Finally Hit a Higher Gear?   [Jul-17-18 03:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Major Apple supplier continues hiring at new DFW plant   [Jul-05-18 11:32AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lumentum stock surges after Goldman Sachs upgrade   [Jun-21-18 09:06AM  MarketWatch]
▶ Free Research Report as EchoStars Revenues Jumped 16%   [Jun-18-18 07:35AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Finisar: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:46PM  Associated Press]

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