Intrinsic value of Franco-Nevada - FNV

Previous Close

$66.20

  Intrinsic Value

$6.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$66.20

 
Intrinsic value

$6.33

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FNV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  747
  822
  900
  982
  1,067
  1,155
  1,247
  1,343
  1,443
  1,546
  1,654
  1,765
  1,882
  2,003
  2,128
  2,259
  2,396
  2,538
  2,686
  2,841
  3,002
  3,171
  3,347
  3,531
  3,723
  3,924
  4,134
  4,355
  4,585
  4,826
Variable operating expenses, $m
  556
  612
  670
  731
  795
  861
  929
  1,001
  1,075
  1,152
  1,232
  1,315
  1,402
  1,492
  1,586
  1,683
  1,785
  1,891
  2,001
  2,116
  2,237
  2,362
  2,493
  2,630
  2,774
  2,923
  3,080
  3,244
  3,416
  3,596
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  556
  612
  670
  731
  795
  861
  929
  1,001
  1,075
  1,152
  1,232
  1,315
  1,402
  1,492
  1,586
  1,683
  1,785
  1,891
  2,001
  2,116
  2,237
  2,362
  2,493
  2,630
  2,774
  2,923
  3,080
  3,244
  3,416
  3,596
Operating income, $m
  190
  209
  229
  250
  272
  295
  318
  343
  368
  394
  422
  450
  480
  511
  543
  576
  611
  647
  685
  724
  766
  809
  853
  900
  949
  1,001
  1,054
  1,110
  1,169
  1,231
EBITDA, $m
  493
  543
  594
  648
  704
  763
  824
  887
  953
  1,021
  1,092
  1,166
  1,243
  1,322
  1,406
  1,492
  1,582
  1,676
  1,774
  1,876
  1,983
  2,094
  2,210
  2,332
  2,459
  2,591
  2,730
  2,876
  3,028
  3,187
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  190
  209
  229
  249
  270
  292
  315
  339
  364
  389
  416
  444
  473
  503
  534
  567
  601
  636
  673
  711
  751
  793
  837
  883
  931
  981
  1,033
  1,088
  1,145
  1,205
Tax expense, $m
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
Net income, $m
  139
  153
  167
  182
  197
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  345
  367
  390
  414
  438
  464
  491
  519
  549
  579
  611
  645
  679
  716
  754
  794
  836
  880

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,755
  5,233
  5,731
  6,252
  6,794
  7,359
  7,946
  8,556
  9,190
  9,849
  10,533
  11,245
  11,985
  12,755
  13,556
  14,390
  15,259
  16,165
  17,109
  18,094
  19,122
  20,195
  21,316
  22,488
  23,712
  24,993
  26,334
  27,736
  29,204
  30,741
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,755
  5,233
  5,731
  6,252
  6,794
  7,359
  7,946
  8,556
  9,190
  9,849
  10,533
  11,245
  11,985
  12,755
  13,556
  14,390
  15,259
  16,165
  17,109
  18,094
  19,122
  20,195
  21,316
  22,488
  23,712
  24,993
  26,334
  27,736
  29,204
  30,741
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
Average production assets, $m
  4,207
  4,629
  5,071
  5,531
  6,011
  6,510
  7,029
  7,569
  8,130
  8,713
  9,319
  9,949
  10,603
  11,284
  11,993
  12,731
  13,500
  14,301
  15,136
  16,007
  16,917
  17,866
  18,858
  19,895
  20,978
  22,112
  23,297
  24,538
  25,837
  27,197
Working capital, $m
  92
  101
  111
  121
  131
  142
  153
  165
  177
  190
  203
  217
  231
  246
  262
  278
  295
  312
  330
  349
  369
  390
  412
  434
  458
  483
  509
  536
  564
  594
Total debt, $m
  7
  17
  26
  36
  46
  57
  68
  80
  92
  104
  117
  131
  145
  159
  175
  191
  207
  224
  242
  261
  280
  301
  322
  344
  368
  392
  417
  444
  472
  501
Total liabilities, $m
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  163
  175
  187
  200
  214
  228
  242
  258
  273
  290
  307
  325
  344
  363
  384
  405
  427
  451
  475
  500
  527
  555
  584
Total equity, $m
  4,665
  5,133
  5,623
  6,133
  6,665
  7,219
  7,795
  8,393
  9,015
  9,662
  10,333
  11,032
  11,758
  12,513
  13,299
  14,117
  14,969
  15,858
  16,784
  17,750
  18,758
  19,811
  20,911
  22,060
  23,262
  24,519
  25,833
  27,209
  28,649
  30,157
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,755
  5,232
  5,732
  6,252
  6,794
  7,359
  7,946
  8,556
  9,190
  9,849
  10,533
  11,246
  11,986
  12,755
  13,557
  14,390
  15,259
  16,165
  17,109
  18,094
  19,121
  20,195
  21,316
  22,487
  23,713
  24,994
  26,333
  27,736
  29,204
  30,741
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  139
  153
  167
  182
  197
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  345
  367
  390
  414
  438
  464
  491
  519
  549
  579
  611
  645
  679
  716
  754
  794
  836
  880
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  303
  333
  365
  398
  432
  468
  506
  545
  585
  627
  670
  716
  763
  812
  863
  916
  971
  1,029
  1,089
  1,152
  1,217
  1,285
  1,357
  1,431
  1,509
  1,591
  1,676
  1,765
  1,859
  1,957
Funds from operations, $m
  442
  486
  532
  580
  630
  682
  736
  792
  850
  911
  974
  1,040
  1,108
  1,179
  1,253
  1,330
  1,410
  1,493
  1,580
  1,671
  1,766
  1,865
  1,968
  2,076
  2,189
  2,307
  2,430
  2,559
  2,695
  2,836
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Cash from operations, $m
  433
  476
  522
  570
  619
  671
  724
  780
  838
  898
  961
  1,026
  1,094
  1,164
  1,237
  1,313
  1,393
  1,476
  1,562
  1,652
  1,746
  1,844
  1,946
  2,053
  2,165
  2,282
  2,404
  2,532
  2,666
  2,807
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -274
  -303
  -333
  -365
  -398
  -432
  -468
  -506
  -545
  -585
  -627
  -670
  -716
  -763
  -812
  -863
  -916
  -971
  -1,029
  -1,089
  -1,152
  -1,217
  -1,285
  -1,357
  -1,431
  -1,509
  -1,591
  -1,676
  -1,765
  -1,859
New CAPEX, $m
  -403
  -422
  -441
  -461
  -480
  -499
  -519
  -540
  -561
  -583
  -606
  -630
  -655
  -681
  -709
  -738
  -769
  -801
  -835
  -871
  -909
  -949
  -992
  -1,037
  -1,084
  -1,133
  -1,186
  -1,241
  -1,299
  -1,360
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -677
  -725
  -774
  -826
  -878
  -931
  -987
  -1,046
  -1,106
  -1,168
  -1,233
  -1,300
  -1,371
  -1,444
  -1,521
  -1,601
  -1,685
  -1,772
  -1,864
  -1,960
  -2,061
  -2,166
  -2,277
  -2,394
  -2,515
  -2,642
  -2,777
  -2,917
  -3,064
  -3,219
Free cash flow, $m
  -244
  -249
  -252
  -256
  -259
  -261
  -263
  -265
  -267
  -269
  -272
  -274
  -277
  -280
  -283
  -287
  -292
  -297
  -302
  -308
  -315
  -323
  -331
  -340
  -350
  -361
  -372
  -384
  -398
  -412
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  309
  316
  323
  329
  335
  340
  346
  351
  357
  362
  368
  374
  381
  388
  396
  405
  414
  424
  435
  447
  460
  474
  489
  505
  522
  541
  560
  582
  604
  628
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  316
  325
  332
  339
  345
  351
  357
  363
  369
  375
  381
  388
  395
  403
  411
  421
  431
  441
  453
  466
  480
  494
  510
  527
  545
  565
  585
  609
  632
  657
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  204
  214
  224
  234
  245
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -448
  -468
  -489
  -511
  -532
  -554
  -576
  -599
  -622
  -646
  -672
  -698
  -726
  -755
  -786
  -818
  -852
  -888
  -926
  -966
  -1,008
  -1,053
  -1,100
  -1,149
  -1,202
  -1,257
  -1,315
  -1,376
  -1,440
  -1,508
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  489
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  113
  -392
  -410
  -428
  -445
  -464
  -482
  -501
  -521
  -541
  -562
  -585
  -608
  -632
  -658
  -685
  -714
  -744
  -775
  -809
  -844
  -882
  -921
  -962
  -1,006
  -1,052
  -1,101
  -1,152
  -1,206
  -1,263
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  108
  -359
  -357
  -352
  -345
  -336
  -326
  -313
  -299
  -284
  -267
  -249
  -231
  -212
  -193
  -174
  -155
  -137
  -119
  -103
  -87
  -73
  -60
  -49
  -39
  -31
  -24
  -18
  -13
  -10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.3
  94.8
  92.6
  90.6
  88.7
  87.0
  85.5
  84.0
  82.7
  81.4
  80.2
  79.2
  78.1
  77.1
  76.2
  75.3
  74.5
  73.7
  73.0
  72.2
  71.5
  70.8
  70.2
  69.5
  68.9
  68.3
  67.7
  67.1
  66.6
  66.0

Franco-Nevada Corporation (Franco-Nevada) is a gold-focused royalty and stream company. The Company has interests in silver, platinum group metals, oil and gas and other resource assets. The Company is engaged in resource sector royalty/stream acquisitions and management activities. It has a portfolio of properties in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Africa. Its properties in the United States include Goldstrike, Stillwater, Gold Quarry, Marigold, Fire Creek/Midas, Bald Mountain, South Arturo and Other. Its properties in Canada include Sudbury, Detour Lake, Golden Highway, Musselwhite, Hemlo, Kirkland Lake, Timmins West, Canadian Malartic and Other. Its properties in Latin America include Antapaccay, Antamina, Candelaria, Guadalupe-Palmarejo and Other. Its properties in Rest of World include Mine Waste Solutions (MWS), Sabodala, Subika, Tasiast, Karma, Duketon, Edikan and Other.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Franco-Nevada (FNV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

FNV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FNV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $675 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Franco-Nevada. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Franco-Nevada. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FNV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FNV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Franco-Nevada, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Franco-Nevada.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FNV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FNV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Franco-Nevada.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Franco-Nevada. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FNV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FNV are equal to 563.5%.

Life of production assets of 13.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Franco-Nevada operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FNV is equal to 12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4705.5 million for Franco-Nevada - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 185.93 million for Franco-Nevada is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Franco-Nevada at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.3 billion.

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