Intrinsic value of Fonar - FONR

Previous Close

$32.65

  Intrinsic Value

$23.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

  Value-price divergence*

-31%

Previous close

$32.65

 
Intrinsic value

$23.94

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-31%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FONR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.80
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
Revenue, $m
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  309
  324
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  100
  105
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
Operating income, $m
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
EBITDA, $m
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Net income, $m
  16
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  85
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  252
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  337
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  252
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  337
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.961
  0.963
  0.964
  0.955
  0.968
  0.959
  0.961
  0.963
  0.965
  0.958
  0.960
  0.962
  0.964
  0.966
  0.961
  0.957
  0.959
  0.961
  0.963
  0.959
  0.961
  0.963
  0.961
  0.962
  0.960
  0.962
  0.964
  0.962
  0.961
  0.963
  0.961
Average production assets, $m
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
Working capital, $m
  25
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
Total debt, $m
  5
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
Total liabilities, $m
  33
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
Total equity, $m
  52
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  100
  106
  111
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  85
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  169
  179
  187
  196
  206
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  338
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.096
  0.100
  0.130
  0.160
  0.180
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.566
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  17
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Free cash flow, $m
  12
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  8
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Fonar Corporation (Fonar) is engaged in the business of designing, manufacturing, selling and servicing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners, which utilizes MRI technology for the detection and diagnosis of human disease, abnormalities, other medical conditions and injuries. The Company operates its business through two segments: Medical Equipment segment, and Physician Management and Diagnostic Services segment. Its Medical Equipment segment is conducted through Fonar. Its Physician Management and Diagnostic Services segment is conducted through its subsidiary Health Management Company of America (HMCA). It offers Upright MRI, which is used to scan any part of the body. The Upright MRI allows patients to be scanned in various conditions, such as standing, sitting, bending or lying down in any position. The Company offers SMART, where scanning allows for same-scan customization of 63 slices.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fonar (FONR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.1
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5.8%
Total Debt to Equity 9.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Return On Total Capital 31.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
Return On Equity 35.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.9%
EBITDA Margin 24.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
Operating Margin 19.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Net Profit Margin 21.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Effective Tax Rate -26.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

FONR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FONR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $73 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fonar. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fonar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FONR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FONR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fonar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fonar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FONR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FONR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Fonar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fonar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FONR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FONR are equal to 21.2%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fonar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FONR is equal to 24.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $52 million for Fonar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.453 million for Fonar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fonar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : October 13, 2017   [Oct-13-17 10:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 10:51AM  Capital Cube]
▶ FONAR Announces Fiscal 2017 Year-End Earnings   [Sep-14-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : August 8, 2017   [Aug-08-17 04:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Action Was Under the Surface in Monday's Market   [Jul-17-17 04:38PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ FONAR Set to Join Russell 3000 Index   [Jun-23-17 12:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ FONAR Announces Latest Income-Boosting Transaction   [Jun-20-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Thinly Traded Medical Stock Nears Buy Zone On 96% EPS Growth   [May-12-17 11:11AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Fonar posts 3Q profit   [May-10-17 10:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 12:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Fonar: A Health Care Stock Even a Value Investor Can Love   [Feb-21-17 10:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Fonar posts 2Q profit   [08:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : January 24, 2017   [Jan-24-17 12:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FONAR Corp. : December 12, 2016   [Dec-12-16 02:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ FONAR Announces Fiscal 2016 Year End Earnings   [Sep-19-16 07:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Three Acquisitions Add to FONAR's Net Income   [Jul-12-16 07:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Timothy Damadian Named President and CEO of FONAR   [Feb-08-16 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ FONAR Management Subsidiary HMCA Adds 25th MRI Center   [Jan-06-16 07:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ FONAR Announces Fiscal 2015 Year End Earnings   [Sep-14  07:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ 10-Q for FONAR Corp.   [May-13  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Are These 2015's Most-Promising Small-Cap Stocks?   [Feb-27  05:20PM  at Investopedia]
▶ 10-Q for FONAR Corp.   [Feb-12  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for FONAR Corp.   [Nov-12  07:09PM  Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of FONR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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