Intrinsic value of FormFactor - FORM

Previous Close

$14.47

  Intrinsic Value

$10.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-28%

Previous close

$14.47

 
Intrinsic value

$10.46

 
Up/down potential

-28%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FORM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  559
  572
  587
  603
  622
  642
  664
  687
  713
  740
  770
  801
  834
  869
  907
  947
  989
  1,033
  1,080
  1,130
  1,182
  1,237
  1,296
  1,357
  1,421
  1,490
  1,561
  1,636
  1,716
  1,799
Variable operating expenses, $m
  239
  244
  250
  256
  263
  270
  279
  288
  297
  308
  290
  302
  314
  327
  342
  356
  372
  389
  407
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  535
  561
  588
  616
  646
  678
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  279
  285
  291
  298
  304
  311
  318
  325
  332
  339
  347
  354
  362
  370
  378
  387
  395
  404
  413
  422
  431
  441
  450
  460
  470
  481
  491
  502
  513
  524
Total operating expenses, $m
  518
  529
  541
  554
  567
  581
  597
  613
  629
  647
  637
  656
  676
  697
  720
  743
  767
  793
  820
  847
  876
  907
  938
  971
  1,005
  1,042
  1,079
  1,118
  1,159
  1,202
Operating income, $m
  41
  43
  46
  50
  55
  60
  67
  75
  84
  93
  133
  145
  158
  172
  187
  203
  221
  240
  261
  282
  306
  331
  357
  386
  416
  448
  482
  518
  556
  597
EBITDA, $m
  95
  98
  101
  106
  112
  118
  126
  135
  145
  156
  168
  181
  196
  211
  228
  247
  266
  287
  310
  334
  360
  387
  416
  448
  481
  516
  553
  593
  635
  679
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  35
  37
  40
  43
  48
  53
  60
  67
  76
  85
  124
  135
  148
  161
  176
  192
  209
  227
  247
  268
  290
  314
  340
  367
  397
  428
  460
  495
  533
  572
Tax expense, $m
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  33
  37
  40
  44
  47
  52
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  124
  134
  144
  154
Net income, $m
  26
  27
  29
  32
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  62
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  140
  152
  166
  180
  196
  212
  230
  248
  268
  290
  312
  336
  362
  389
  417

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  591
  604
  620
  637
  657
  678
  701
  726
  753
  782
  813
  846
  881
  918
  958
  1,000
  1,044
  1,091
  1,141
  1,193
  1,248
  1,307
  1,368
  1,433
  1,501
  1,573
  1,648
  1,728
  1,812
  1,900
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  591
  604
  620
  637
  657
  678
  701
  726
  753
  782
  813
  846
  881
  918
  958
  1,000
  1,044
  1,091
  1,141
  1,193
  1,248
  1,307
  1,368
  1,433
  1,501
  1,573
  1,648
  1,728
  1,812
  1,900
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.946
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.946
  0.947
  0.946
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.946
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
Average production assets, $m
  199
  204
  209
  215
  221
  229
  236
  245
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  402
  421
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  556
  583
  611
  640
Working capital, $m
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  113
  118
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
Total debt, $m
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  256
  270
  286
  302
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  419
  442
  467
  493
Total liabilities, $m
  173
  177
  182
  187
  192
  199
  205
  213
  221
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  334
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  531
  557
Total equity, $m
  418
  427
  438
  451
  464
  479
  496
  513
  532
  553
  574
  598
  623
  649
  677
  707
  738
  771
  806
  843
  883
  924
  967
  1,013
  1,061
  1,112
  1,165
  1,222
  1,281
  1,343
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  591
  604
  620
  638
  656
  678
  701
  726
  753
  782
  812
  846
  881
  918
  958
  1,000
  1,044
  1,091
  1,140
  1,193
  1,249
  1,307
  1,368
  1,433
  1,501
  1,573
  1,648
  1,728
  1,812
  1,900
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  26
  27
  29
  32
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  62
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  140
  152
  166
  180
  196
  212
  230
  248
  268
  290
  312
  336
  362
  389
  417
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  55
  56
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  63
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Funds from operations, $m
  80
  82
  84
  88
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  124
  126
  135
  146
  157
  170
  183
  198
  213
  229
  247
  266
  286
  307
  330
  354
  380
  407
  436
  467
  500
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  80
  82
  85
  89
  94
  99
  105
  112
  120
  121
  130
  140
  152
  164
  177
  191
  206
  222
  239
  257
  277
  298
  320
  344
  369
  396
  424
  454
  486
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -31
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
Free cash flow, $m
  49
  50
  51
  52
  55
  58
  62
  67
  72
  78
  77
  84
  92
  101
  111
  121
  132
  145
  158
  172
  187
  203
  221
  239
  259
  280
  302
  326
  351
  378
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  52
  54
  55
  58
  61
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  86
  94
  102
  112
  122
  133
  145
  158
  172
  187
  203
  220
  239
  258
  279
  301
  324
  349
  376
  404
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  94
  44
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  56
  61
  66
  64
  70
  77
  85
  94
  104
  114
  125
  137
  150
  164
  179
  195
  212
  231
  250
  271
  293
  316
  341
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  90
  40
  39
  37
  36
  36
  35
  35
  35
  34
  30
  30
  29
  29
  28
  26
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  3
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FormFactor, Inc. is a provider of test and measurement solutions. The Company's segments include the Probe Cards segment and Systems segment. The Company designs, manufactures and sells multiple product lines, including probe cards, analytical probes, probe stations, integrated measurement systems, thermal sub-systems, reliability test systems, and related services. Its products provide electrical information from a range of semiconductor and electro-optical devices and integrated circuits (devices) from development to production. Probe Cards segment consists of probe card products and analytical probes. Systems segment consists of wafer probing, thermal and reliability products to enable precision on-wafer measurement of integrated circuits. Systems products are used in the early phases of the development and characterization of semiconductor processes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FormFactor (FORM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -146.6
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 60.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 205.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 31.2%
Total Debt to Equity 34.4%
Interest Coverage -24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Return On Total Capital -1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Return On Equity -2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
EBITDA Margin -0.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Operating Margin -12.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -13%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Net Profit Margin -1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 86%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Payout Ratio 0%

FORM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FORM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $548.441 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FormFactor. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of FormFactor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FORM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FORM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FormFactor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FormFactor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FORM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 42.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $273 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FORM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for FormFactor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FormFactor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FORM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FORM are equal to 35.6%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FormFactor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FORM is equal to 16.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $458.637 million for FormFactor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 73.862 million for FormFactor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FormFactor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ How FormFactor Shares Gained 35% Last Month   [Dec-10-18 05:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ FormFactor Receives SK hynix Supplier Excellence Award   [Nov-13-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ FormFactor Inc (NASDAQ:FORM): The Yield That Matters The Most   [Nov-04-18 09:52AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ FormFactor Projects Optimism After Another Tough Quarter   [Nov-01-18 12:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ FormFactor: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why FormFactor Stock Lost 11% in September   [Oct-03-18 03:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Apple to Kick Off Product Blitz With New IPhones Over $1,000   [Sep-10-18 12:54PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Have Investors Priced In FormFactor Incs (NASDAQ:FORM) Growth?   [Aug-30-18 01:21PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 7 Fast-Moving Semiconductor Stocks Ready to Blast Higher   [Aug-27-18 03:28PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ FormFactor Announces Participation at Upcoming Conferences   [Aug-06-18 06:18PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why FormFactor Is Soaring Today   [Aug-02-18 12:35PM  Motley Fool]
▶ FormFactor: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ June Fundamental Stock Pick: FormFactor Inc (NASDAQ:FORM)   [Jun-15-18 12:05PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ FormFactor Announces Participation at Upcoming Conferences   [May-16-18 08:58AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why FormFactor Stock Fell 15.9% in April   [May-11-18 08:55AM  Motley Fool]
▶ FormFactor: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 06:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Micron Report Offers Positive Data For Chip-Gear Companies   [Mar-23-18 03:25PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ FormFactor Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [Mar-06-18 06:13PM  PR Newswire]
▶ FormFactor misses 4Q profit forecasts   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ FormFactor Earnings Preview   [01:30PM  Benzinga]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Formfactor Sees RS Rating Jump To 85   [Jan-03-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Formfactor Hits 80-Plus Relative Strength Rating Benchmark   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ FormFactor Upgraded To Strong Buy; Texas Instruments Hits Record High   [Dec-15-17 02:49PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Formfactor Earns Composite Rating Upgrade   [Dec-12-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Formfactor Sees Its Composite Rating Rise To 96   [Dec-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Is There A Buy Opportunity In These Sinking Chip-Gear Firms?   [Dec-01-17 04:26PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Why FormFactor, Inc. Is Tanking Today   [Nov-01-17 08:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ FormFactor tops Street 3Q forecasts   [06:22PM  Associated Press]

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