Intrinsic value of Fossil Group - FOSL

Previous Close

$24.35

  Intrinsic Value

$14.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-39%

Previous close

$24.35

 
Intrinsic value

$14.85

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FOSL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,844
  2,909
  2,984
  3,068
  3,161
  3,263
  3,374
  3,495
  3,624
  3,763
  3,912
  4,071
  4,240
  4,420
  4,610
  4,812
  5,026
  5,252
  5,491
  5,743
  6,010
  6,290
  6,586
  6,898
  7,227
  7,572
  7,936
  8,319
  8,722
  9,146
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,724
  2,787
  2,858
  2,938
  3,026
  3,124
  3,229
  3,344
  3,468
  3,600
  3,727
  3,878
  4,039
  4,210
  4,392
  4,585
  4,788
  5,004
  5,231
  5,472
  5,725
  5,993
  6,275
  6,572
  6,885
  7,214
  7,561
  7,926
  8,310
  8,713
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,724
  2,787
  2,858
  2,938
  3,026
  3,124
  3,229
  3,344
  3,468
  3,600
  3,727
  3,878
  4,039
  4,210
  4,392
  4,585
  4,788
  5,004
  5,231
  5,472
  5,725
  5,993
  6,275
  6,572
  6,885
  7,214
  7,561
  7,926
  8,310
  8,713
Operating income, $m
  120
  123
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  248
  260
  272
  284
  298
  312
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  413
  433
EBITDA, $m
  192
  197
  202
  207
  214
  220
  228
  236
  245
  254
  264
  275
  286
  299
  311
  325
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  512
  536
  562
  589
  618
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  36
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  99
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  174
  184
  196
  208
  220
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  85
  87
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  101
  119
  122
  125
  128
  132
  135
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  212
Tax expense, $m
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
Net income, $m
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  99
  102
  104
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  139
  144
  150
  155

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,692
  1,731
  1,775
  1,825
  1,880
  1,941
  2,007
  2,079
  2,156
  2,239
  2,327
  2,422
  2,522
  2,629
  2,743
  2,863
  2,990
  3,124
  3,267
  3,417
  3,575
  3,742
  3,918
  4,104
  4,299
  4,505
  4,721
  4,949
  5,189
  5,441
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,692
  1,731
  1,775
  1,825
  1,880
  1,941
  2,007
  2,079
  2,156
  2,239
  2,327
  2,422
  2,522
  2,629
  2,743
  2,863
  2,990
  3,124
  3,267
  3,417
  3,575
  3,742
  3,918
  4,104
  4,299
  4,505
  4,721
  4,949
  5,189
  5,441
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
  1.681
Average production assets, $m
  432
  442
  454
  466
  480
  496
  513
  531
  551
  572
  595
  619
  644
  672
  701
  731
  764
  798
  835
  873
  913
  956
  1,001
  1,049
  1,098
  1,151
  1,206
  1,265
  1,326
  1,390
Working capital, $m
  563
  576
  591
  607
  626
  646
  668
  692
  718
  745
  775
  806
  839
  875
  913
  953
  995
  1,040
  1,087
  1,137
  1,190
  1,246
  1,304
  1,366
  1,431
  1,499
  1,571
  1,647
  1,727
  1,811
Total debt, $m
  469
  494
  523
  556
  592
  631
  675
  721
  772
  826
  884
  945
  1,011
  1,081
  1,155
  1,233
  1,316
  1,404
  1,497
  1,595
  1,698
  1,807
  1,922
  2,044
  2,171
  2,305
  2,447
  2,596
  2,752
  2,917
Total liabilities, $m
  1,105
  1,130
  1,159
  1,192
  1,228
  1,268
  1,311
  1,357
  1,408
  1,462
  1,520
  1,581
  1,647
  1,717
  1,791
  1,869
  1,952
  2,040
  2,133
  2,231
  2,335
  2,444
  2,559
  2,680
  2,807
  2,942
  3,083
  3,232
  3,388
  3,553
Total equity, $m
  587
  601
  616
  633
  653
  674
  697
  721
  748
  777
  808
  840
  875
  912
  952
  993
  1,037
  1,084
  1,134
  1,186
  1,241
  1,299
  1,360
  1,424
  1,492
  1,563
  1,638
  1,717
  1,800
  1,888
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,692
  1,731
  1,775
  1,825
  1,881
  1,942
  2,008
  2,078
  2,156
  2,239
  2,328
  2,421
  2,522
  2,629
  2,743
  2,862
  2,989
  3,124
  3,267
  3,417
  3,576
  3,743
  3,919
  4,104
  4,299
  4,505
  4,721
  4,949
  5,188
  5,441
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.800
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.150
  1.180
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.300
  1.320
  1.350
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
  1.440
  1.460
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  99
  102
  104
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  139
  144
  150
  155
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  185
Funds from operations, $m
  134
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  165
  166
  171
  177
  183
  189
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
  340
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
Cash from operations, $m
  123
  123
  124
  125
  126
  128
  130
  132
  135
  138
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  177
  183
  190
  197
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  256
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  55
  54
  52
  50
  48
  47
  46
  44
  43
  38
  37
  35
  34
  33
  32
  31
  30
  29
  28
  27
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  19
  18
  17
  15
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  23
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  23
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  173
  180
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  70
  67
  67
  67
  67
  67
  67
  67
  68
  68
  65
  65
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  68
  62
  58
  55
  52
  49
  45
  42
  39
  36
  31
  28
  25
  22
  20
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fossil Group, Inc. is a design, marketing and distribution company that specializes in consumer fashion accessories. The Company's segments include Americas, Europe and Asia. Each segment includes sales to wholesale and distributor customers, and sales through the Company-owned retail stores and e-commerce activities based on the location of the selling entity. The Americas segment includes sales to customers based in Canada, Latin America and the United States. The Europe segment includes sales to customers based in European countries, the Middle East and Africa. The Asia segment includes sales to customers based in Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. The Company's principal offerings include a line of men's and women's fashion watches and jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, sunglasses and soft accessories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fossil Group (FOSL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.9
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 60.6%
Total Debt to Equity 63.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 24.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

FOSL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FOSL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2788.163 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fossil Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Fossil Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FOSL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FOSL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fossil Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fossil Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FOSL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FOSL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8% for Fossil Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fossil Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FOSL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FOSL are equal to 15.2%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fossil Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FOSL is equal to 19.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $576.133 million for Fossil Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.389 million for Fossil Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fossil Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Fossil Is Once Again on the Move   [May-11-18 11:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Stock Market News For May 9, 2018   [May-09-18 10:08AM  Zacks]
▶ Fossil Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [03:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fossil Teams Up With Puma For Smartwatch Assault   [Apr-25-18 07:14AM  Forbes]
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▶ Fitbit's Affordable Versa Smartwatch Could Be a Winner   [Mar-13-18 07:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Fossil Group Stock Gained 68.1% in February   [Mar-08-18 05:20PM  Motley Fool]

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