Intrinsic value of First Industrial Realty Trust - FR

Previous Close

$32.99

  Intrinsic Value

$255.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+674%

Previous close

$32.99

 
Intrinsic value

$255.29

 
Up/down potential

+674%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  415
  436
  457
  480
  503
  528
  554
  582
  611
  641
  673
  706
  741
  778
  817
  858
  900
  945
  992
  1,042
  1,094
  1,148
  1,206
  1,266
  1,329
  1,396
  1,465
  1,538
  1,615
  1,696
Variable operating expenses, $m
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  216
  220
  225
  230
  235
  240
  246
  251
  257
  262
  268
  274
  280
  286
  292
  299
  305
  312
  319
  326
  333
  341
  348
  356
  364
  372
  380
  388
  397
  405
Total operating expenses, $m
  272
  278
  286
  293
  301
  309
  318
  326
  335
  344
  345
  355
  365
  375
  385
  397
  408
  420
  432
  445
  458
  472
  485
  500
  516
  531
  547
  563
  581
  598
Operating income, $m
  144
  157
  171
  186
  202
  219
  237
  256
  276
  297
  328
  352
  377
  403
  431
  461
  492
  525
  560
  597
  636
  677
  720
  766
  814
  865
  918
  975
  1,034
  1,097
EBITDA, $m
  462
  490
  520
  552
  586
  621
  659
  698
  739
  783
  829
  878
  929
  983
  1,040
  1,100
  1,163
  1,230
  1,300
  1,373
  1,451
  1,532
  1,618
  1,709
  1,804
  1,904
  2,010
  2,121
  2,238
  2,361
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  144
  157
  171
  186
  202
  218
  236
  255
  275
  296
  327
  350
  375
  401
  429
  459
  490
  523
  557
  594
  632
  673
  716
  761
  809
  860
  913
  969
  1,028
  1,090
Tax expense, $m
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  88
  95
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
  206
  218
  232
  246
  262
  278
  294
Net income, $m
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  159
  172
  186
  201
  216
  239
  256
  274
  293
  313
  335
  357
  381
  407
  433
  462
  491
  523
  556
  591
  627
  666
  707
  750
  796

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -521
  -547
  -574
  -602
  -632
  -663
  -696
  -730
  -766
  -804
  -844
  -886
  -930
  -977
  -1,025
  -1,076
  -1,130
  -1,186
  -1,245
  -1,307
  -1,373
  -1,441
  -1,513
  -1,588
  -1,668
  -1,751
  -1,838
  -1,930
  -2,027
  -2,128
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -521
  -547
  -574
  -602
  -632
  -663
  -696
  -730
  -766
  -804
  -844
  -886
  -930
  -977
  -1,025
  -1,076
  -1,130
  -1,186
  -1,245
  -1,307
  -1,373
  -1,441
  -1,513
  -1,588
  -1,668
  -1,751
  -1,838
  -1,930
  -2,027
  -2,128
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.796
  -0.797
  -0.796
  -0.796
  -0.796
  -0.797
  -0.798
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.796
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.796
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
  -0.797
Average production assets, $m
  3,094
  3,246
  3,406
  3,574
  3,750
  3,935
  4,130
  4,335
  4,549
  4,775
  5,012
  5,261
  5,523
  5,798
  6,086
  6,389
  6,708
  7,042
  7,393
  7,761
  8,149
  8,555
  8,982
  9,430
  9,901
  10,395
  10,915
  11,460
  12,032
  12,633
Working capital, $m
  -1,535
  -1,611
  -1,690
  -1,773
  -1,861
  -1,953
  -2,049
  -2,151
  -2,257
  -2,369
  -2,487
  -2,611
  -2,740
  -2,877
  -3,020
  -3,170
  -3,328
  -3,494
  -3,668
  -3,851
  -4,043
  -4,245
  -4,457
  -4,679
  -4,913
  -5,158
  -5,416
  -5,686
  -5,970
  -6,268
Total debt, $m
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
Total liabilities, $m
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  143
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
Total equity, $m
  -566
  -594
  -623
  -654
  -686
  -720
  -755
  -793
  -832
  -874
  -917
  -962
  -1,010
  -1,061
  -1,113
  -1,169
  -1,227
  -1,288
  -1,352
  -1,420
  -1,491
  -1,565
  -1,643
  -1,725
  -1,811
  -1,902
  -1,997
  -2,096
  -2,201
  -2,311
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -521
  -547
  -574
  -602
  -632
  -663
  -695
  -730
  -766
  -805
  -844
  -886
  -930
  -977
  -1,025
  -1,076
  -1,130
  -1,186
  -1,245
  -1,308
  -1,373
  -1,441
  -1,513
  -1,588
  -1,668
  -1,751
  -1,839
  -1,930
  -2,027
  -2,128
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  159
  172
  186
  201
  216
  239
  256
  274
  293
  313
  335
  357
  381
  407
  433
  462
  491
  523
  556
  591
  627
  666
  707
  750
  796
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  402
  422
  442
  464
  486
  501
  526
  552
  580
  609
  639
  671
  704
  739
  776
  815
  856
  898
  943
  990
  1,040
  1,091
  1,146
  1,203
  1,263
Funds from operations, $m
  423
  448
  474
  502
  531
  562
  594
  628
  664
  702
  740
  782
  826
  873
  922
  974
  1,028
  1,086
  1,146
  1,210
  1,276
  1,347
  1,421
  1,499
  1,581
  1,667
  1,758
  1,853
  1,954
  2,059
Change in working capital, $m
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -234
  -245
  -258
  -270
  -284
  -298
Cash from operations, $m
  495
  523
  553
  585
  618
  654
  691
  730
  771
  814
  857
  905
  956
  1,009
  1,065
  1,124
  1,186
  1,251
  1,320
  1,392
  1,468
  1,549
  1,633
  1,721
  1,814
  1,912
  2,015
  2,124
  2,238
  2,357
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -295
  -309
  -325
  -341
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -413
  -433
  -455
  -478
  -501
  -526
  -552
  -580
  -609
  -639
  -671
  -704
  -739
  -776
  -815
  -856
  -898
  -943
  -990
  -1,040
  -1,091
  -1,146
  -1,203
New CAPEX, $m
  -142
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -387
  -407
  -427
  -448
  -471
  -494
  -519
  -545
  -572
  -601
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -437
  -461
  -485
  -509
  -533
  -560
  -589
  -618
  -648
  -681
  -715
  -750
  -788
  -827
  -869
  -912
  -957
  -1,005
  -1,055
  -1,108
  -1,163
  -1,222
  -1,283
  -1,346
  -1,414
  -1,484
  -1,559
  -1,636
  -1,718
  -1,804
Free cash flow, $m
  58
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  112
  123
  133
  143
  155
  168
  182
  197
  212
  229
  246
  265
  285
  305
  327
  350
  375
  401
  428
  457
  487
  519
  553
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -101
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  103
  113
  124
  136
  148
  161
  175
  190
  206
  222
  240
  259
  278
  299
  321
  345
  369
  395
  423
  452
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  541
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  600
  64
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  126
  137
  146
  159
  172
  186
  201
  217
  234
  251
  270
  290
  311
  333
  356
  381
  407
  435
  464
  495
  528
  562
Discount rate, %
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  600
  64
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  126
  137
  146
  159
  172
  186
  201
  217
  234
  251
  270
  290
  311
  333
  356
  381
  407
  435
  464
  495
  528
  562
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Trust is a self-administered real estate company, which owns, manages, acquires, sells, develops and redevelops industrial real estate. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's in-service portfolio consisted of 215 light industrial properties, 53 research and development (R&D)/flex properties, 167 bulk warehouse properties and 100 regional warehouse properties containing an aggregate of approximately 62.2 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA) located in 23 states. The Company's in-service portfolio includes all properties that have reached stabilized occupancy, developed and redeveloped properties and acquired properties that are occupied at acquisition or one year from the acquisition date. The Company's operations are conducted primarily through the First Industrial, L.P. (the Operating Partnership), of which the Company is the sole general partner.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  First Industrial Realty Trust (FR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.9
Price to Sales 10.2
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -33.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 108.5%
Total Debt to Equity 108.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.2%
EBITDA Margin 83.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.6%
Operating Margin 32%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 33.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Net Profit Margin 32%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio 68.6%

FR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $396 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by First Industrial Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of First Industrial Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 0%, whose default value for FR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of First Industrial Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of First Industrial Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 13.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $211 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for First Industrial Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for First Industrial Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FR are equal to 744.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in First Industrial Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FR is equal to -369.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for First Industrial Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 118 million for First Industrial Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of First Industrial Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Duke Realty Stock Offers Average Growth at a High Valuation   [Jul-06-18 06:04PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-24-18 06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust reports 4Q results   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ 7 REIT Payouts Getting Set To Grow In February   [Jan-14-18 09:07AM  Forbes]
▶ Stocks Generating Improved Relative Strength: First Industrial Realty Trust   [Dec-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust reports 3Q results   [Oct-25-17 06:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] How to Profit from the Rise of the Drones   [Sep-12-17 11:11AM  Barrons.com]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [Sep-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust reports 2Q results   [12:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust reports 1Q results   [Apr-25-17 06:01PM  Associated Press]
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