Intrinsic value of First Industrial Realty Trust - FR

Previous Close

$31.02

  Intrinsic Value

$2.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

+9%

Previous close

$31.02

 
Intrinsic value

$2.59

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+9%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.28
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  378
  398
  420
  442
  466
  490
  516
  543
  571
  600
  631
  664
  698
  733
  771
  810
  851
  894
  940
  987
  1,037
  1,089
  1,144
  1,202
  1,263
  1,326
  1,393
  1,463
  1,536
  1,613
  1,694
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  262
  269
  276
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  320
  328
  336
  344
  353
  362
  371
  380
  389
  399
  409
  419
  430
  440
Total operating expenses, $m
  257
  271
  280
  288
  297
  307
  316
  326
  336
  346
  357
  369
  380
  392
  405
  417
  431
  445
  460
  474
  489
  506
  522
  539
  557
  575
  594
  614
  634
  656
  677
Operating income, $m
  121
  127
  140
  154
  169
  184
  200
  217
  235
  254
  274
  295
  318
  341
  366
  392
  420
  450
  481
  513
  548
  584
  623
  663
  706
  751
  799
  849
  902
  958
  1,017
EBITDA, $m
  245
  258
  278
  299
  321
  344
  369
  395
  422
  451
  481
  513
  546
  581
  619
  658
  699
  743
  788
  837
  887
  941
  997
  1,057
  1,120
  1,186
  1,255
  1,328
  1,405
  1,486
  1,572
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  207
  217
  229
  241
  253
  267
  281
  295
Earnings before tax, $m
  127
  65
  75
  84
  95
  105
  117
  129
  142
  156
  170
  185
  202
  219
  237
  256
  277
  298
  321
  345
  371
  398
  426
  457
  489
  522
  558
  595
  635
  677
  722
Tax expense, $m
  1
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  183
  195
Net income, $m
  121
  48
  54
  62
  69
  77
  85
  94
  104
  114
  124
  135
  147
  160
  173
  187
  202
  218
  234
  252
  271
  290
  311
  333
  357
  381
  407
  435
  464
  494
  527

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,793
  2,930
  3,087
  3,251
  3,423
  3,603
  3,792
  3,989
  4,196
  4,413
  4,641
  4,879
  5,130
  5,392
  5,667
  5,955
  6,258
  6,576
  6,909
  7,258
  7,625
  8,010
  8,414
  8,838
  9,283
  9,750
  10,241
  10,755
  11,296
  11,863
  12,458
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,783
  2,930
  3,087
  3,251
  3,423
  3,603
  3,792
  3,989
  4,196
  4,413
  4,641
  4,879
  5,130
  5,392
  5,667
  5,955
  6,258
  6,576
  6,909
  7,258
  7,625
  8,010
  8,414
  8,838
  9,283
  9,750
  10,241
  10,755
  11,296
  11,863
  12,458
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
Average production assets, $m
  2,526
  2,663
  2,805
  2,955
  3,111
  3,275
  3,446
  3,626
  3,814
  4,011
  4,218
  4,435
  4,662
  4,901
  5,151
  5,413
  5,688
  5,977
  6,279
  6,597
  6,931
  7,280
  7,648
  8,033
  8,438
  8,862
  9,308
  9,776
  10,267
  10,782
  11,323
Working capital, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Total debt, $m
  1,347
  1,430
  1,517
  1,609
  1,705
  1,805
  1,911
  2,021
  2,137
  2,258
  2,385
  2,518
  2,657
  2,804
  2,957
  3,118
  3,287
  3,464
  3,650
  3,845
  4,050
  4,265
  4,490
  4,727
  4,975
  5,236
  5,509
  5,797
  6,098
  6,415
  6,747
Total liabilities, $m
  1,552
  1,635
  1,722
  1,814
  1,910
  2,010
  2,116
  2,226
  2,342
  2,463
  2,590
  2,723
  2,862
  3,009
  3,162
  3,323
  3,492
  3,669
  3,855
  4,050
  4,255
  4,470
  4,695
  4,932
  5,180
  5,441
  5,714
  6,002
  6,303
  6,620
  6,952
Total equity, $m
  1,241
  1,295
  1,364
  1,437
  1,513
  1,593
  1,676
  1,763
  1,855
  1,951
  2,051
  2,157
  2,267
  2,383
  2,505
  2,632
  2,766
  2,906
  3,054
  3,208
  3,370
  3,541
  3,719
  3,907
  4,103
  4,310
  4,526
  4,754
  4,993
  5,243
  5,507
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,793
  2,930
  3,086
  3,251
  3,423
  3,603
  3,792
  3,989
  4,197
  4,414
  4,641
  4,880
  5,129
  5,392
  5,667
  5,955
  6,258
  6,575
  6,909
  7,258
  7,625
  8,011
  8,414
  8,839
  9,283
  9,751
  10,240
  10,756
  11,296
  11,863
  12,459
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.085
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  48
  54
  62
  69
  77
  85
  94
  104
  114
  124
  135
  147
  160
  173
  187
  202
  218
  234
  252
  271
  290
  311
  333
  357
  381
  407
  435
  464
  494
  527
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  229
  240
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  323
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  434
  456
  479
  503
  529
  555
Funds from operations, $m
  161
  178
  192
  206
  222
  237
  254
  272
  291
  310
  331
  353
  376
  400
  426
  452
  481
  511
  542
  575
  610
  647
  686
  727
  770
  816
  863
  914
  967
  1,023
  1,082
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  173
  179
  193
  207
  222
  238
  255
  273
  291
  311
  332
  354
  377
  401
  427
  454
  482
  512
  543
  577
  612
  649
  688
  729
  772
  817
  865
  916
  969
  1,025
  1,084
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -323
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -414
  -434
  -456
  -479
  -503
  -529
New CAPEX, $m
  -287
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -333
  -350
  -367
  -385
  -404
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -515
  -541
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -111
  -261
  -274
  -287
  -301
  -317
  -332
  -349
  -366
  -384
  -404
  -424
  -444
  -467
  -490
  -514
  -540
  -568
  -596
  -626
  -656
  -690
  -724
  -760
  -798
  -839
  -880
  -924
  -970
  -1,018
  -1,070
Free cash flow, $m
  62
  -82
  -81
  -80
  -79
  -78
  -77
  -76
  -75
  -73
  -72
  -70
  -68
  -66
  -64
  -61
  -59
  -56
  -52
  -49
  -45
  -41
  -36
  -32
  -26
  -21
  -15
  -8
  -1
  6
  14
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -93
  83
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  225
  237
  248
  261
  274
  287
  301
  316
  332
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  120
  16
  15
  11
  7
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  27
  99
  103
  103
  103
  104
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  225
  237
  248
  261
  274
  287
  301
  316
  332
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  89
  17
  22
  23
  24
  25
  28
  34
  41
  48
  55
  63
  72
  80
  90
  100
  110
  122
  134
  146
  160
  174
  189
  205
  222
  240
  259
  279
  300
  323
  346
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -168
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -217
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -263
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -37
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -55
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -23
  -19
  -14
  -8
  -2
  4
  10
  18
  25
  33
  42
  51
  61
  72
  83
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -34
  -40
  -38
  -35
  -33
  -29
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.2
  98.9
  98.8
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Trust is a self-administered real estate company, which owns, manages, acquires, sells, develops and redevelops industrial real estate. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's in-service portfolio consisted of 215 light industrial properties, 53 research and development (R&D)/flex properties, 167 bulk warehouse properties and 100 regional warehouse properties containing an aggregate of approximately 62.2 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA) located in 23 states. The Company's in-service portfolio includes all properties that have reached stabilized occupancy, developed and redeveloped properties and acquired properties that are occupied at acquisition or one year from the acquisition date. The Company's operations are conducted primarily through the First Industrial, L.P. (the Operating Partnership), of which the Company is the sole general partner.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  First Industrial Realty Trust (FR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30
Price to Sales 9.6
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21
Price to Free Cash Flow -31.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 108.5%
Total Debt to Equity 108.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.2%
EBITDA Margin 83.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.6%
Operating Margin 32%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 33.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Net Profit Margin 32%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio 68.6%

FR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $378 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by First Industrial Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of First Industrial Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for FR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of First Industrial Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of First Industrial Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 14%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $210 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for First Industrial Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for First Industrial Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FR are equal to 668.3%.

Life of production assets of 20.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in First Industrial Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FR is equal to -2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1241 million for First Industrial Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 119.751 million for First Industrial Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of First Industrial Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] How to Profit from the Rise of the Drones   [Sep-12-17 11:11AM  Barrons.com]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [Sep-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust reports 2Q results   [12:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust reports 1Q results   [Apr-25-17 06:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Industrial Realty Trust reports 4Q results   [Feb-22-17 07:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Valeo Acquires A 50% Stake In CloudMade   [03:34PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Double Tops Giving Sell Signals (AMT, BND)   [Sep-22-16 09:25AM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of FR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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