Intrinsic value of Fiesta Restaurant Group - FRGI

Previous Close

$28.50

  Intrinsic Value

$6.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$28.50

 
Intrinsic value

$6.96

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FRGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  682
  698
  716
  736
  758
  783
  810
  838
  870
  903
  939
  977
  1,017
  1,060
  1,106
  1,155
  1,206
  1,260
  1,318
  1,378
  1,442
  1,509
  1,580
  1,655
  1,734
  1,817
  1,904
  1,996
  2,093
  2,195
Variable operating expenses, $m
  656
  671
  688
  707
  728
  751
  776
  804
  833
  864
  886
  922
  960
  1,001
  1,044
  1,090
  1,138
  1,189
  1,243
  1,300
  1,361
  1,424
  1,491
  1,562
  1,636
  1,714
  1,797
  1,884
  1,975
  2,071
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  656
  671
  688
  707
  728
  751
  776
  804
  833
  864
  886
  922
  960
  1,001
  1,044
  1,090
  1,138
  1,189
  1,243
  1,300
  1,361
  1,424
  1,491
  1,562
  1,636
  1,714
  1,797
  1,884
  1,975
  2,071
Operating income, $m
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
EBITDA, $m
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  214
  225
  236
  247
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
Tax expense, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Net income, $m
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  432
  442
  453
  466
  480
  495
  512
  530
  550
  571
  594
  618
  643
  671
  700
  730
  763
  797
  833
  872
  912
  955
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,149
  1,204
  1,263
  1,324
  1,388
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  432
  442
  453
  466
  480
  495
  512
  530
  550
  571
  594
  618
  643
  671
  700
  730
  763
  797
  833
  872
  912
  955
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,149
  1,204
  1,263
  1,324
  1,388
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.579
  1.579
  1.581
  1.579
  1.579
  1.582
  1.582
  1.581
  1.582
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.582
  1.580
  1.580
  1.582
  1.581
  1.581
  1.582
  1.580
  1.581
  1.580
  1.580
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.580
  1.581
  1.581
Average production assets, $m
  383
  392
  402
  414
  426
  440
  455
  471
  489
  507
  528
  549
  572
  596
  622
  649
  678
  708
  740
  774
  810
  848
  888
  930
  974
  1,021
  1,070
  1,122
  1,176
  1,233
Working capital, $m
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
Total debt, $m
  81
  85
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  216
  231
  246
  263
  280
  298
  318
  338
  359
  382
  406
  431
  457
  485
  514
Total liabilities, $m
  196
  200
  205
  211
  217
  224
  232
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  304
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
Total equity, $m
  236
  242
  248
  255
  262
  271
  280
  290
  301
  312
  325
  338
  352
  367
  383
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  659
  691
  724
  759
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  432
  442
  453
  466
  479
  495
  512
  530
  550
  571
  594
  618
  643
  671
  700
  730
  763
  797
  834
  872
  912
  954
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,150
  1,205
  1,263
  1,324
  1,388
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
Funds from operations, $m
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  186
  195
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -175
Free cash flow, $m
  22
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  20
  19
  19
  19
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
Cash available for distribution, $m
  22
  20
  20
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  17
  17
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  21
  19
  17
  16
  15
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc. owns, operates and franchises two fast-casual restaurant brands, Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana through its subsidiaries Pollo Operations, Inc., and its subsidiaries, and Pollo Franchise, Inc., (collectively Pollo Tropical) and Taco Cabana, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively Taco Cabana). The Company operates through the Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana segments. The Company's Pollo Tropical restaurants offer Caribbean menu items, featuring its bone-in chicken marinated in blend of tropical fruit juices and grilled over an open flame. The Company also offers catering for parties and corporate events. The Company's Taco Cabana restaurants serves Mexican food, including flame-grilled steak and chicken fajitas served on sizzling iron skillets, quesadillas, hand-rolled flautas, enchiladas, burritos, tacos, fresh-made flour tortillas, customizable salads served in its Cabana Bowl, and its breakfast tacos.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.9
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -190.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 27.7%
Total Debt to Equity 27.7%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Equity 6.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.9%
EBITDA Margin 9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Operating Margin 3.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 0%

FRGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FRGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $669 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fiesta Restaurant Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Fiesta Restaurant Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FRGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FRGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fiesta Restaurant Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fiesta Restaurant Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FRGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FRGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fiesta Restaurant Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fiesta Restaurant Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FRGI stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FRGI are equal to 56.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fiesta Restaurant Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FRGI is equal to -2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $232 million for Fiesta Restaurant Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27 million for Fiesta Restaurant Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fiesta Restaurant Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 5 Best Restaurant Stocks of 2018 (So Far)   [Jul-05-18 07:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Fiesta Restaurant Group Inc. Stock Surged Today   [May-08-18 12:54PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 05:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group posts 4Q loss   [Feb-26-18 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ McDonald's to open about 1,000 new stores   [Jan-31-18 01:40PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ The 3 Worst-Performing Restaurant Stocks of 2017   [Dec-21-17 08:19PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group posts 3Q loss   [Nov-06-17 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hurricane Irma Is Causing Destruction to Restaurant Stocks   [Sep-06-17 04:17PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group posts 2Q loss   [Aug-07-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group laying off corporate workers as it struggles for profit   [May-17-17 03:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group posts 1Q loss   [May-08-17 05:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Pollo Tropical closing 30 more stores; parent company plans brand relaunch   [Apr-24-17 02:40PM  American City Business Journals]
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