Intrinsic value of First Solar - FSLR

Previous Close

$45.53

  Intrinsic Value

$11.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$45.53

 
Intrinsic value

$11.94

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FSLR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,000
  3,069
  3,148
  3,237
  3,335
  3,442
  3,560
  3,687
  3,823
  3,970
  4,127
  4,294
  4,473
  4,662
  4,863
  5,077
  5,302
  5,541
  5,793
  6,059
  6,340
  6,636
  6,948
  7,277
  7,624
  7,988
  8,372
  8,776
  9,201
  9,648
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,588
  3,670
  3,764
  3,870
  3,987
  4,115
  4,255
  4,407
  4,570
  4,745
  4,923
  5,122
  5,335
  5,561
  5,801
  6,055
  6,324
  6,609
  6,910
  7,227
  7,562
  7,915
  8,288
  8,680
  9,093
  9,528
  9,986
  10,468
  10,975
  11,508
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,588
  3,670
  3,764
  3,870
  3,987
  4,115
  4,255
  4,407
  4,570
  4,745
  4,923
  5,122
  5,335
  5,561
  5,801
  6,055
  6,324
  6,609
  6,910
  7,227
  7,562
  7,915
  8,288
  8,680
  9,093
  9,528
  9,986
  10,468
  10,975
  11,508
Operating income, $m
  -588
  -601
  -616
  -633
  -652
  -673
  -696
  -720
  -747
  -775
  -796
  -828
  -862
  -899
  -938
  -979
  -1,022
  -1,068
  -1,117
  -1,168
  -1,222
  -1,279
  -1,339
  -1,403
  -1,470
  -1,540
  -1,614
  -1,692
  -1,774
  -1,860
EBITDA, $m
  -464
  -475
  -487
  -501
  -516
  -533
  -551
  -571
  -592
  -615
  -639
  -665
  -692
  -722
  -753
  -786
  -821
  -858
  -897
  -938
  -981
  -1,027
  -1,076
  -1,127
  -1,180
  -1,237
  -1,296
  -1,359
  -1,424
  -1,494
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  35
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  149
  161
  173
  187
  201
  216
  231
  248
  265
  284
  303
  324
  345
  368
Earnings before tax, $m
  -623
  -639
  -658
  -680
  -703
  -729
  -758
  -788
  -821
  -857
  -885
  -926
  -969
  -1,015
  -1,064
  -1,116
  -1,171
  -1,229
  -1,290
  -1,355
  -1,423
  -1,495
  -1,571
  -1,651
  -1,735
  -1,824
  -1,917
  -2,016
  -2,119
  -2,228
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -623
  -639
  -658
  -680
  -703
  -729
  -758
  -788
  -821
  -857
  -885
  -926
  -969
  -1,015
  -1,064
  -1,116
  -1,171
  -1,229
  -1,290
  -1,355
  -1,423
  -1,495
  -1,571
  -1,651
  -1,735
  -1,824
  -1,917
  -2,016
  -2,119
  -2,228

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,173
  4,269
  4,378
  4,502
  4,638
  4,788
  4,951
  5,127
  5,317
  5,521
  5,740
  5,973
  6,221
  6,484
  6,764
  7,061
  7,374
  7,706
  8,057
  8,427
  8,818
  9,229
  9,664
  10,121
  10,603
  11,110
  11,644
  12,206
  12,797
  13,419
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,173
  4,269
  4,378
  4,502
  4,638
  4,788
  4,951
  5,127
  5,317
  5,521
  5,740
  5,973
  6,221
  6,484
  6,764
  7,061
  7,374
  7,706
  8,057
  8,427
  8,818
  9,229
  9,664
  10,121
  10,603
  11,110
  11,644
  12,206
  12,797
  13,419
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
Average production assets, $m
  1,401
  1,433
  1,470
  1,511
  1,557
  1,608
  1,662
  1,722
  1,785
  1,854
  1,927
  2,005
  2,089
  2,177
  2,271
  2,371
  2,476
  2,588
  2,705
  2,830
  2,961
  3,099
  3,245
  3,398
  3,560
  3,731
  3,910
  4,099
  4,297
  4,506
Working capital, $m
  -222
  -227
  -233
  -240
  -247
  -255
  -263
  -273
  -283
  -294
  -305
  -318
  -331
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -392
  -410
  -429
  -448
  -469
  -491
  -514
  -539
  -564
  -591
  -620
  -649
  -681
  -714
Total debt, $m
  431
  472
  519
  572
  631
  695
  765
  840
  922
  1,010
  1,103
  1,203
  1,310
  1,423
  1,543
  1,670
  1,804
  1,947
  2,097
  2,256
  2,424
  2,600
  2,787
  2,983
  3,190
  3,407
  3,636
  3,877
  4,131
  4,398
Total liabilities, $m
  1,790
  1,831
  1,878
  1,931
  1,990
  2,054
  2,124
  2,200
  2,281
  2,369
  2,462
  2,562
  2,669
  2,782
  2,902
  3,029
  3,164
  3,306
  3,456
  3,615
  3,783
  3,959
  4,146
  4,342
  4,549
  4,766
  4,995
  5,236
  5,490
  5,757
Total equity, $m
  2,383
  2,437
  2,500
  2,570
  2,648
  2,734
  2,827
  2,928
  3,036
  3,153
  3,277
  3,410
  3,552
  3,703
  3,862
  4,032
  4,211
  4,400
  4,600
  4,812
  5,035
  5,270
  5,518
  5,779
  6,054
  6,344
  6,649
  6,970
  7,307
  7,662
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,173
  4,268
  4,378
  4,501
  4,638
  4,788
  4,951
  5,128
  5,317
  5,522
  5,739
  5,972
  6,221
  6,485
  6,764
  7,061
  7,375
  7,706
  8,056
  8,427
  8,818
  9,229
  9,664
  10,121
  10,603
  11,110
  11,644
  12,206
  12,797
  13,419
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -623
  -639
  -658
  -680
  -703
  -729
  -758
  -788
  -821
  -857
  -885
  -926
  -969
  -1,015
  -1,064
  -1,116
  -1,171
  -1,229
  -1,290
  -1,355
  -1,423
  -1,495
  -1,571
  -1,651
  -1,735
  -1,824
  -1,917
  -2,016
  -2,119
  -2,228
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  140
  145
  149
  155
  160
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
Funds from operations, $m
  -499
  -513
  -529
  -547
  -567
  -589
  -613
  -639
  -667
  -697
  -729
  -763
  -800
  -838
  -880
  -923
  -969
  -1,018
  -1,070
  -1,125
  -1,182
  -1,243
  -1,307
  -1,375
  -1,446
  -1,521
  -1,599
  -1,682
  -1,770
  -1,861
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Cash from operations, $m
  -495
  -508
  -524
  -541
  -560
  -581
  -604
  -629
  -657
  -686
  -717
  -751
  -786
  -824
  -865
  -907
  -953
  -1,001
  -1,051
  -1,105
  -1,161
  -1,221
  -1,284
  -1,350
  -1,420
  -1,494
  -1,571
  -1,652
  -1,738
  -1,828
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -112
  -114
  -117
  -120
  -123
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -333
  -349
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -209
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -259
  -271
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -328
  -344
  -361
  -379
  -398
  -418
  -438
  -459
  -482
  -507
  -531
  -558
Free cash flow, $m
  -634
  -655
  -677
  -702
  -729
  -758
  -790
  -824
  -860
  -899
  -941
  -986
  -1,033
  -1,083
  -1,136
  -1,192
  -1,251
  -1,313
  -1,380
  -1,449
  -1,523
  -1,600
  -1,682
  -1,768
  -1,858
  -1,953
  -2,054
  -2,159
  -2,270
  -2,386
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  41
  47
  53
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  670
  694
  721
  750
  781
  815
  851
  889
  930
  973
  1,010
  1,059
  1,111
  1,166
  1,224
  1,285
  1,350
  1,418
  1,490
  1,566
  1,646
  1,730
  1,819
  1,912
  2,010
  2,114
  2,222
  2,336
  2,456
  2,583
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  707
  735
  768
  803
  840
  879
  921
  965
  1,012
  1,061
  1,104
  1,159
  1,217
  1,279
  1,344
  1,412
  1,485
  1,560
  1,640
  1,725
  1,814
  1,907
  2,005
  2,108
  2,217
  2,332
  2,451
  2,577
  2,710
  2,850
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  81
  91
  101
  111
  121
  131
  141
  151
  161
  163
  173
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  323
  341
  359
  378
  398
  418
  440
  463
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -670
  -694
  -721
  -750
  -781
  -815
  -851
  -889
  -930
  -973
  -1,010
  -1,059
  -1,111
  -1,166
  -1,224
  -1,285
  -1,350
  -1,418
  -1,490
  -1,566
  -1,646
  -1,730
  -1,819
  -1,912
  -2,010
  -2,114
  -2,222
  -2,336
  -2,456
  -2,583
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2,763
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,167
  -613
  -630
  -649
  -670
  -694
  -720
  -748
  -779
  -812
  -848
  -886
  -926
  -970
  -1,016
  -1,064
  -1,116
  -1,171
  -1,229
  -1,290
  -1,355
  -1,423
  -1,495
  -1,571
  -1,651
  -1,736
  -1,824
  -1,918
  -2,016
  -2,120
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,077
  -562
  -548
  -534
  -519
  -503
  -486
  -468
  -447
  -426
  -402
  -378
  -352
  -325
  -298
  -270
  -243
  -216
  -189
  -164
  -140
  -118
  -98
  -80
  -64
  -51
  -39
  -30
  -22
  -16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  76.5
  58.3
  44.3
  33.6
  25.3
  19.1
  14.3
  10.7
  8.0
  6.0
  4.4
  3.3
  2.4
  1.8
  1.3
  1.0
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

First Solar, Inc. is a provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions. The Company designs, manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin-film semiconductor technology. The Company also develops, designs, constructs and sells PV solar power systems that primarily use the modules it manufactures. It operates through two segments: components and systems. The components segment is engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar modules, which convert sunlight into electricity. The systems segment includes the development, construction, operation and maintenance of PV solar power systems, which primarily use its solar modules. In addition, the Company provides operations and maintenance (O&M) services to system owners that use solar modules manufactured by it or by third-party manufacturers. The Company's solar modules had an average rated power per module of approximately 114 watts, as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  First Solar (FSLR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.2
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -215.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 38%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 70
Current Ratio 1
LT Debt to Equity 3.1%
Total Debt to Equity 3.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital -6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Equity -6.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
EBITDA Margin -16%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Operating Margin -17%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -16%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin -12.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate -12.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

FSLR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FSLR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2941.324 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by First Solar. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of First Solar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FSLR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FSLR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of First Solar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of First Solar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FSLR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FSLR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.9% for First Solar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for First Solar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FSLR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FSLR are equal to 46.7%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in First Solar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FSLR is equal to -7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5098.697 million for First Solar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104.763 million for First Solar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of First Solar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.8 billion.

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