Intrinsic value of Fusion Connect - FSNN

Previous Close

$2.73

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.73

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FSNN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  154
  157
  161
  166
  171
  176
  182
  189
  196
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  284
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  372
  390
  409
  428
  449
  471
  494
Variable operating expenses, $m
  137
  140
  143
  147
  151
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
  374
  393
  412
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
Total operating expenses, $m
  157
  161
  164
  169
  173
  179
  184
  190
  196
  203
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  302
  315
  329
  344
  359
  376
  393
  411
  431
  450
Operating income, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
EBITDA, $m
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  8
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
Earnings before tax, $m
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Net income, $m
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  153
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  381
  399
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  153
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  381
  399
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.242
  1.236
  1.238
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.238
  1.235
  1.241
  1.238
  1.234
  1.236
  1.238
  1.238
  1.239
  1.238
  1.237
  1.240
  1.233
  1.235
  1.237
  1.236
  1.240
  1.236
  1.238
  1.239
  1.237
  1.237
  1.236
  1.238
Average production assets, $m
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Total debt, $m
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  134
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
  221
  232
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  316
  333
Total liabilities, $m
  112
  114
  117
  121
  124
  128
  133
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  312
  327
  343
  359
Total equity, $m
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  148
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  274
  288
  301
  316
  330
  347
  363
  381
  399
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.880
  6.930
  6.980
  7.030
  7.090
  7.150
  7.210
  7.270
  7.340
  7.400
  7.460
  7.520
  7.580
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.800
  7.850
  7.900
  7.950
  8.000
  8.040
  8.080
  8.130
  8.170
  8.200
  8.240
  8.270
  8.310
  8.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  11
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  15
  16
  16
  16
  7
  7
  8
  8
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -16
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
Discount rate, %
  14.80
  15.54
  16.32
  17.13
  17.99
  18.89
  19.83
  20.83
  21.87
  22.96
  24.11
  25.31
  26.58
  27.91
  29.30
  30.77
  32.31
  33.92
  35.62
  37.40
  39.27
  41.23
  43.29
  45.46
  47.73
  50.12
  52.62
  55.26
  58.02
  60.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  25.9
  13.5
  7.1
  3.8
  2.1
  1.2
  0.7
  0.4
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2

Fusion Telecommunications International, Inc. is a United States-based provider of integrated cloud solutions, including cloud voice, cloud connectivity, cloud infrastructure, cloud computing, and managed cloud-based applications to businesses, and voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)-based voice services to carriers. The Company operates through two segments: Business Services and Carrier Services. Through Business Services segment, it provides cloud voice, cloud connectivity, cloud infrastructure, cloud computing and managed cloud-based applications to businesses of all sizes. Its suite of business services includes unified communications as a service, session initiation protocol trunking solution and file sharing solution. The Carrier Services segment includes termination of domestic and international carrier traffic utilizing VoIP technology. It offers solutions to small, medium and large businesses. It offers domestic and international VoIP services to carriers around the world.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fusion Connect (FSNN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1077.8%
Total Debt to Equity 1122.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -11%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Total Capital -13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Return On Equity -113%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.7%
EBITDA Margin -0.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Operating Margin -6.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.1%
Net Profit Margin -10.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Effective Tax Rate 7.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Payout Ratio 0%

FSNN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FSNN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $150.530557 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fusion Connect. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Fusion Connect. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FSNN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.8%, whose default value for FSNN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fusion Connect, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fusion Connect.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FSNN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $20 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FSNN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.7% for Fusion Connect.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fusion Connect. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FSNN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FSNN are equal to 40.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fusion Connect operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FSNN is equal to -6.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1.173804 million for Fusion Connect - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.72 million for Fusion Connect is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fusion Connect at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fusion Reports Third Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [Nov-13-18 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ''Superfirms' Domination Influences Economic Factors''   [Sep-26-18 09:05AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ''Robust Economy, Resilient Market''   [Aug-23-18 09:02AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Fusion Reports Second Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [Aug-14-18 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ''Strong Economy, Trade Wars & Market Volatility''   [Jun-27-18 12:55PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Fusion Added to the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 Indexes   [Jun-25-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fusion Completes Acquisition of MegaPath   [Jun-18-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ "The Balancing Act"   [May-31-18 09:05AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Fusion to Participate at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-17-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fusion Reports First Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [May-15-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fusion Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire MegaPath   [May-10-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fusion Announces Closing of Birch Acquisition   [May-07-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fusion to Present at the 30th Annual ROTH Conference   [Mar-06-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ "Clear Skies Ahead?"   [Feb-28-18 09:05AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ "Déjà vu All Over Again?"   [Jan-31-18 09:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Fusion Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock   [Jan-29-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ "The Bright Lights of 2017"   [Dec-29-17 09:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ "Will the Bull Market Continue to Run?"   [Nov-29-17 03:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Fusion to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-22-17 08:40AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fusion Reports Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Nov-13-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ "Economy Still Growing Strong?"   [Oct-31-17 09:07AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ "Keeps On Keepin' On"   [Sep-27-17 09:05AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ "Meeting Or Exceeding Expectations"   [Aug-31-17 09:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Fusion Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-14-17 04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Added to the Russell Microcap Index   [Jun-26-17 08:45AM  Marketwired]

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