Intrinsic value of L.B. Foster Company - FSTR

Previous Close

$17.89

  Intrinsic Value

$1.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$17.89

 
Intrinsic value

$1.64

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FSTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.10
  24.89
  22.90
  21.11
  19.50
  18.05
  16.74
  15.57
  14.51
  13.56
  12.71
  11.94
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
Revenue, $m
  681
  851
  1,046
  1,266
  1,513
  1,787
  2,086
  2,410
  2,760
  3,135
  3,533
  3,955
  4,399
  4,866
  5,355
  5,867
  6,401
  6,956
  7,535
  8,137
  8,762
  9,412
  10,088
  10,790
  11,519
  12,278
  13,067
  13,889
  14,744
  15,634
Variable operating expenses, $m
  877
  1,094
  1,343
  1,624
  1,940
  2,288
  2,670
  3,085
  3,532
  4,009
  4,510
  5,048
  5,616
  6,212
  6,837
  7,490
  8,171
  8,881
  9,620
  10,388
  11,186
  12,016
  12,878
  13,774
  14,706
  15,675
  16,682
  17,731
  18,822
  19,959
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  877
  1,094
  1,343
  1,624
  1,940
  2,288
  2,670
  3,085
  3,532
  4,009
  4,510
  5,048
  5,616
  6,212
  6,837
  7,490
  8,171
  8,881
  9,620
  10,388
  11,186
  12,016
  12,878
  13,774
  14,706
  15,675
  16,682
  17,731
  18,822
  19,959
Operating income, $m
  -196
  -243
  -297
  -358
  -426
  -502
  -585
  -675
  -771
  -875
  -977
  -1,094
  -1,217
  -1,346
  -1,482
  -1,623
  -1,771
  -1,924
  -2,084
  -2,251
  -2,424
  -2,604
  -2,791
  -2,985
  -3,187
  -3,397
  -3,615
  -3,842
  -4,079
  -4,325
EBITDA, $m
  -169
  -211
  -259
  -314
  -375
  -443
  -517
  -598
  -684
  -777
  -876
  -981
  -1,091
  -1,207
  -1,328
  -1,455
  -1,587
  -1,725
  -1,868
  -2,018
  -2,173
  -2,334
  -2,501
  -2,675
  -2,856
  -3,044
  -3,240
  -3,444
  -3,656
  -3,877
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  8
  11
  16
  21
  27
  34
  41
  49
  58
  68
  78
  89
  100
  112
  125
  138
  152
  166
  181
  197
  213
  230
  248
  266
  285
  305
  325
  347
  369
  392
Earnings before tax, $m
  -204
  -255
  -313
  -379
  -454
  -536
  -626
  -724
  -830
  -943
  -1,055
  -1,183
  -1,317
  -1,458
  -1,606
  -1,761
  -1,922
  -2,091
  -2,266
  -2,448
  -2,637
  -2,834
  -3,038
  -3,251
  -3,472
  -3,701
  -3,940
  -4,189
  -4,448
  -4,717
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -204
  -255
  -313
  -379
  -454
  -536
  -626
  -724
  -830
  -943
  -1,055
  -1,183
  -1,317
  -1,458
  -1,606
  -1,761
  -1,922
  -2,091
  -2,266
  -2,448
  -2,637
  -2,834
  -3,038
  -3,251
  -3,472
  -3,701
  -3,940
  -4,189
  -4,448
  -4,717

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  504
  629
  773
  937
  1,119
  1,321
  1,543
  1,783
  2,042
  2,318
  2,613
  2,925
  3,254
  3,599
  3,961
  4,339
  4,734
  5,145
  5,573
  6,018
  6,481
  6,962
  7,461
  7,981
  8,520
  9,081
  9,665
  10,273
  10,905
  11,564
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  504
  629
  773
  937
  1,119
  1,321
  1,543
  1,783
  2,042
  2,318
  2,613
  2,925
  3,254
  3,599
  3,961
  4,339
  4,734
  5,145
  5,573
  6,018
  6,481
  6,962
  7,461
  7,981
  8,520
  9,081
  9,665
  10,273
  10,905
  11,564
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.351
  1.353
  1.353
  1.351
  1.352
  1.353
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
  1.352
Average production assets, $m
  178
  222
  273
  331
  395
  466
  544
  629
  720
  818
  922
  1,032
  1,148
  1,270
  1,398
  1,531
  1,671
  1,816
  1,967
  2,124
  2,287
  2,457
  2,633
  2,816
  3,007
  3,205
  3,411
  3,625
  3,848
  4,081
Working capital, $m
  115
  144
  177
  214
  256
  302
  352
  407
  466
  530
  597
  668
  743
  822
  905
  992
  1,082
  1,176
  1,273
  1,375
  1,481
  1,591
  1,705
  1,823
  1,947
  2,075
  2,208
  2,347
  2,492
  2,642
Total debt, $m
  198
  277
  368
  471
  586
  714
  853
  1,005
  1,168
  1,343
  1,529
  1,726
  1,933
  2,151
  2,379
  2,618
  2,867
  3,127
  3,397
  3,677
  3,969
  4,273
  4,588
  4,916
  5,256
  5,610
  5,979
  6,362
  6,761
  7,177
Total liabilities, $m
  318
  397
  488
  591
  706
  834
  973
  1,125
  1,288
  1,463
  1,649
  1,846
  2,053
  2,271
  2,499
  2,738
  2,987
  3,247
  3,517
  3,798
  4,089
  4,393
  4,708
  5,036
  5,376
  5,730
  6,099
  6,482
  6,881
  7,297
Total equity, $m
  186
  232
  285
  346
  413
  488
  569
  658
  753
  856
  964
  1,079
  1,201
  1,328
  1,462
  1,601
  1,747
  1,899
  2,057
  2,221
  2,391
  2,569
  2,753
  2,945
  3,144
  3,351
  3,566
  3,791
  4,024
  4,267
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  504
  629
  773
  937
  1,119
  1,322
  1,542
  1,783
  2,041
  2,319
  2,613
  2,925
  3,254
  3,599
  3,961
  4,339
  4,734
  5,146
  5,574
  6,019
  6,480
  6,962
  7,461
  7,981
  8,520
  9,081
  9,665
  10,273
  10,905
  11,564
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.060
  1.190
  1.290
  1.360
  1.420
  1.460
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.640
  1.650
  1.650
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -204
  -255
  -313
  -379
  -454
  -536
  -626
  -724
  -830
  -943
  -1,055
  -1,183
  -1,317
  -1,458
  -1,606
  -1,761
  -1,922
  -2,091
  -2,266
  -2,448
  -2,637
  -2,834
  -3,038
  -3,251
  -3,472
  -3,701
  -3,940
  -4,189
  -4,448
  -4,717
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  68
  77
  87
  98
  101
  113
  126
  140
  154
  168
  184
  200
  216
  233
  251
  270
  289
  309
  330
  352
  375
  398
  423
  448
Funds from operations, $m
  -176
  -222
  -275
  -335
  -403
  -477
  -559
  -647
  -743
  -845
  -954
  -1,069
  -1,191
  -1,319
  -1,453
  -1,593
  -1,739
  -1,891
  -2,050
  -2,215
  -2,386
  -2,564
  -2,749
  -2,941
  -3,141
  -3,349
  -3,565
  -3,790
  -4,025
  -4,269
Change in working capital, $m
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
Cash from operations, $m
  -201
  -251
  -308
  -373
  -444
  -523
  -609
  -702
  -802
  -908
  -1,021
  -1,140
  -1,266
  -1,398
  -1,535
  -1,679
  -1,829
  -1,985
  -2,147
  -2,316
  -2,492
  -2,674
  -2,863
  -3,060
  -3,265
  -3,477
  -3,699
  -3,929
  -4,169
  -4,419
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -20
  -24
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -51
  -60
  -69
  -79
  -90
  -101
  -113
  -126
  -140
  -154
  -168
  -184
  -200
  -216
  -233
  -251
  -270
  -289
  -309
  -330
  -352
  -375
  -398
  -423
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -64
  -75
  -88
  -100
  -114
  -129
  -145
  -160
  -177
  -194
  -211
  -229
  -248
  -268
  -287
  -307
  -329
  -351
  -373
  -396
  -421
  -446
  -472
  -499
  -528
  -558
  -589
  -621
  -655
Free cash flow, $m
  -254
  -315
  -384
  -460
  -545
  -638
  -738
  -847
  -962
  -1,085
  -1,215
  -1,352
  -1,495
  -1,646
  -1,803
  -1,966
  -2,137
  -2,314
  -2,498
  -2,689
  -2,888
  -3,095
  -3,309
  -3,533
  -3,765
  -4,006
  -4,257
  -4,518
  -4,791
  -5,075
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  68
  79
  91
  103
  115
  127
  140
  152
  163
  175
  186
  197
  207
  218
  228
  239
  249
  259
  270
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  341
  354
  368
  383
  399
  416
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  243
  301
  366
  440
  521
  610
  708
  813
  925
  1,045
  1,164
  1,298
  1,438
  1,586
  1,740
  1,901
  2,068
  2,242
  2,424
  2,612
  2,808
  3,011
  3,223
  3,442
  3,671
  3,908
  4,156
  4,413
  4,681
  4,960
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  311
  380
  457
  543
  636
  737
  848
  965
  1,088
  1,220
  1,350
  1,495
  1,645
  1,804
  1,968
  2,140
  2,317
  2,501
  2,694
  2,893
  3,100
  3,314
  3,538
  3,770
  4,012
  4,262
  4,524
  4,796
  5,080
  5,376
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  57
  65
  74
  82
  91
  100
  109
  118
  126
  134
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  173
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  237
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -243
  -301
  -366
  -440
  -521
  -610
  -708
  -813
  -925
  -1,045
  -1,164
  -1,298
  -1,438
  -1,586
  -1,740
  -1,901
  -2,068
  -2,242
  -2,424
  -2,612
  -2,808
  -3,011
  -3,223
  -3,442
  -3,671
  -3,908
  -4,156
  -4,413
  -4,681
  -4,960
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -186
  -236
  -293
  -357
  -430
  -510
  -599
  -695
  -799
  -910
  -1,029
  -1,155
  -1,288
  -1,428
  -1,574
  -1,728
  -1,888
  -2,054
  -2,228
  -2,409
  -2,596
  -2,791
  -2,994
  -3,205
  -3,424
  -3,652
  -3,889
  -4,135
  -4,392
  -4,659
Discount rate, %
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -177
  -212
  -248
  -284
  -318
  -350
  -377
  -399
  -416
  -425
  -428
  -423
  -412
  -395
  -372
  -345
  -314
  -281
  -247
  -213
  -181
  -150
  -122
  -97
  -76
  -58
  -43
  -31
  -22
  -15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  43.7
  19.4
  8.7
  4.0
  1.8
  0.9
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

L.B. Foster Company is a manufacturer, fabricator and distributor of products and services for the rail, construction, energy and utility markets. The Company's segments include Rail Products and Services, Construction Products, and Tubular and Energy Services. Its Rail Products segment provides a range of new and used rail, trackwork and accessories to railroads, mines and industry. The Rail segment designs and produces concrete railroad ties, insulated rail joints, power rail, track fasteners, coverboards and special accessories for mass transit and other rail systems. The Construction Products segment sells and rents steel sheet piling, H-bearing pile and other piling products for foundation and earth retention requirements. The Tubular and Energy Services segment supplies pipe coatings for natural gas pipelines and utilities, blending, injection and metering equipment for the oil and gas market, and produces threaded pipe products for industrial water well and irrigation markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  L.B. Foster Company (FSTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -22.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 112.8%
Total Debt to Equity 120.3%
Interest Coverage -28
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -28.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.2%
Return On Total Capital -38.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.8%
Return On Equity -68.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
EBITDA Margin -24.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Operating Margin -30.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -30.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Net Profit Margin -29.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Effective Tax Rate 3.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Payout Ratio -0.7%

FSTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FSTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $536 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by L.B. Foster Company. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of L.B. Foster Company. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FSTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for FSTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of L.B. Foster Company, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of L.B. Foster Company.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FSTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 129.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FSTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for L.B. Foster Company.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for L.B. Foster Company. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FSTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FSTR are equal to 26.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in L.B. Foster Company operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FSTR is equal to 16.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $146.479 million for L.B. Foster Company - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.563 million for L.B. Foster Company is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of L.B. Foster Company at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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