Intrinsic value of Fortinet - FTNT

Previous Close

$88.17

  Intrinsic Value

$97.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+10%

Previous close

$88.17

 
Intrinsic value

$97.37

 
Up/down potential

+10%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of FTNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.40
  19.76
  18.28
  16.96
  15.76
  14.68
  13.72
  12.84
  12.06
  11.35
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.79
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  1,815
  2,173
  2,571
  3,007
  3,481
  3,992
  4,539
  5,122
  5,740
  6,392
  7,077
  7,795
  8,546
  9,329
  10,146
  10,995
  11,879
  12,798
  13,753
  14,745
  15,777
  16,849
  17,963
  19,122
  20,329
  21,585
  22,892
  24,255
  25,676
  27,158
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,261
  1,509
  1,785
  2,087
  2,415
  2,769
  3,148
  3,552
  3,980
  4,432
  4,904
  5,401
  5,921
  6,464
  7,030
  7,619
  8,232
  8,868
  9,530
  10,218
  10,932
  11,675
  12,447
  13,251
  14,086
  14,957
  15,863
  16,807
  17,792
  18,819
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  361
  369
  377
  385
  394
  402
  411
  420
  429
  439
  448
  458
  468
  479
  489
  500
  511
  522
  534
  545
  557
  570
  582
  595
  608
  622
  635
  649
  664
  678
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,622
  1,878
  2,162
  2,472
  2,809
  3,171
  3,559
  3,972
  4,409
  4,871
  5,352
  5,859
  6,389
  6,943
  7,519
  8,119
  8,743
  9,390
  10,064
  10,763
  11,489
  12,245
  13,029
  13,846
  14,694
  15,579
  16,498
  17,456
  18,456
  19,497
Operating income, $m
  193
  296
  410
  535
  672
  820
  980
  1,150
  1,330
  1,521
  1,725
  1,935
  2,156
  2,386
  2,626
  2,876
  3,137
  3,408
  3,689
  3,982
  4,287
  4,604
  4,934
  5,277
  5,634
  6,006
  6,394
  6,799
  7,221
  7,661
EBITDA, $m
  247
  360
  485
  622
  773
  935
  1,110
  1,296
  1,494
  1,703
  1,923
  2,153
  2,395
  2,647
  2,910
  3,184
  3,469
  3,766
  4,074
  4,395
  4,729
  5,076
  5,437
  5,812
  6,203
  6,611
  7,035
  7,478
  7,940
  8,422
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  19
  41
  65
  91
  120
  150
  183
  218
  256
  295
  336
  379
  425
  472
  521
  572
  626
  681
  738
  798
  860
  925
  992
  1,062
  1,135
  1,210
  1,289
  1,371
  1,457
Earnings before tax, $m
  193
  276
  369
  470
  581
  701
  829
  966
  1,112
  1,265
  1,430
  1,599
  1,776
  1,961
  2,154
  2,355
  2,564
  2,782
  3,008
  3,244
  3,489
  3,744
  4,009
  4,285
  4,572
  4,872
  5,184
  5,510
  5,850
  6,205
Tax expense, $m
  52
  75
  100
  127
  157
  189
  224
  261
  300
  342
  386
  432
  480
  530
  582
  636
  692
  751
  812
  876
  942
  1,011
  1,082
  1,157
  1,234
  1,315
  1,400
  1,488
  1,579
  1,675
Net income, $m
  141
  202
  269
  343
  424
  512
  605
  705
  811
  923
  1,044
  1,167
  1,297
  1,432
  1,573
  1,719
  1,872
  2,031
  2,196
  2,368
  2,547
  2,733
  2,926
  3,128
  3,338
  3,556
  3,784
  4,022
  4,270
  4,529

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,469
  2,957
  3,498
  4,091
  4,736
  5,431
  6,176
  6,969
  7,809
  8,696
  9,628
  10,605
  11,627
  12,693
  13,803
  14,960
  16,162
  17,412
  18,712
  20,062
  21,465
  22,923
  24,440
  26,017
  27,658
  29,367
  31,146
  33,001
  34,934
  36,950
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,469
  2,957
  3,498
  4,091
  4,736
  5,431
  6,176
  6,969
  7,809
  8,696
  9,628
  10,605
  11,627
  12,693
  13,803
  14,960
  16,162
  17,412
  18,712
  20,062
  21,465
  22,923
  24,440
  26,017
  27,658
  29,367
  31,146
  33,001
  34,934
  36,950
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
Average production assets, $m
  254
  304
  360
  421
  487
  559
  635
  717
  804
  895
  991
  1,091
  1,196
  1,306
  1,420
  1,539
  1,663
  1,792
  1,925
  2,064
  2,209
  2,359
  2,515
  2,677
  2,846
  3,022
  3,205
  3,396
  3,595
  3,802
Working capital, $m
  -682
  -817
  -967
  -1,131
  -1,309
  -1,501
  -1,707
  -1,926
  -2,158
  -2,403
  -2,661
  -2,931
  -3,213
  -3,508
  -3,815
  -4,134
  -4,467
  -4,812
  -5,171
  -5,544
  -5,932
  -6,335
  -6,754
  -7,190
  -7,644
  -8,116
  -8,608
  -9,120
  -9,654
  -10,212
Total debt, $m
  356
  756
  1,200
  1,686
  2,215
  2,785
  3,396
  4,046
  4,735
  5,462
  6,227
  7,028
  7,865
  8,739
  9,650
  10,598
  11,585
  12,610
  13,675
  14,782
  15,933
  17,129
  18,372
  19,665
  21,011
  22,412
  23,871
  25,392
  26,977
  28,631
Total liabilities, $m
  2,025
  2,425
  2,868
  3,354
  3,883
  4,453
  5,064
  5,715
  6,404
  7,131
  7,895
  8,696
  9,534
  10,408
  11,319
  12,267
  13,253
  14,278
  15,344
  16,451
  17,601
  18,797
  20,041
  21,334
  22,680
  24,081
  25,540
  27,060
  28,646
  30,299
Total equity, $m
  444
  532
  630
  736
  852
  978
  1,112
  1,254
  1,406
  1,565
  1,733
  1,909
  2,093
  2,285
  2,485
  2,693
  2,909
  3,134
  3,368
  3,611
  3,864
  4,126
  4,399
  4,683
  4,978
  5,286
  5,606
  5,940
  6,288
  6,651
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,469
  2,957
  3,498
  4,090
  4,735
  5,431
  6,176
  6,969
  7,810
  8,696
  9,628
  10,605
  11,627
  12,693
  13,804
  14,960
  16,162
  17,412
  18,712
  20,062
  21,465
  22,923
  24,440
  26,017
  27,658
  29,367
  31,146
  33,000
  34,934
  36,950
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.800
  1.420
  1.910
  2.290
  2.600
  2.850
  3.050
  3.230
  3.370
  3.490
  3.590
  3.680
  3.760
  3.830
  3.880
  3.940
  3.980
  4.020
  4.060
  4.090
  4.120
  4.150
  4.180
  4.200
  4.220
  4.240
  4.260
  4.270
  4.290
  4.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  141
  202
  269
  343
  424
  512
  605
  705
  811
  923
  1,044
  1,167
  1,297
  1,432
  1,573
  1,719
  1,872
  2,031
  2,196
  2,368
  2,547
  2,733
  2,926
  3,128
  3,338
  3,556
  3,784
  4,022
  4,270
  4,529
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  64
  75
  87
  101
  115
  130
  147
  164
  182
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  308
  333
  358
  385
  413
  442
  472
  503
  535
  569
  604
  641
  679
  719
  760
Funds from operations, $m
  195
  266
  344
  431
  525
  626
  736
  852
  975
  1,106
  1,242
  1,385
  1,536
  1,693
  1,857
  2,027
  2,205
  2,389
  2,581
  2,781
  2,989
  3,205
  3,429
  3,663
  3,907
  4,161
  4,425
  4,701
  4,989
  5,290
Change in working capital, $m
  -120
  -135
  -149
  -164
  -178
  -192
  -206
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -332
  -345
  -359
  -373
  -388
  -403
  -419
  -436
  -454
  -472
  -492
  -512
  -534
  -557
Cash from operations, $m
  315
  401
  494
  594
  703
  819
  941
  1,071
  1,208
  1,351
  1,499
  1,655
  1,818
  1,987
  2,164
  2,347
  2,537
  2,735
  2,940
  3,154
  3,376
  3,608
  3,848
  4,099
  4,360
  4,633
  4,917
  5,214
  5,523
  5,847
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -84
  -97
  -112
  -127
  -143
  -161
  -179
  -198
  -218
  -239
  -261
  -284
  -308
  -333
  -358
  -385
  -413
  -442
  -472
  -503
  -535
  -569
  -604
  -641
  -679
  -719
New CAPEX, $m
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -87
  -101
  -117
  -133
  -150
  -169
  -189
  -209
  -229
  -252
  -275
  -299
  -323
  -349
  -375
  -403
  -432
  -462
  -492
  -524
  -557
  -592
  -628
  -665
  -704
  -745
  -787
  -832
  -878
  -927
Free cash flow, $m
  228
  300
  377
  461
  552
  650
  753
  862
  978
  1,099
  1,224
  1,357
  1,495
  1,639
  1,788
  1,944
  2,105
  2,273
  2,448
  2,630
  2,819
  3,016
  3,221
  3,434
  3,656
  3,888
  4,130
  4,382
  4,645
  4,921
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  356
  400
  443
  486
  529
  570
  611
  650
  689
  727
  764
  801
  838
  874
  911
  948
  986
  1,025
  1,065
  1,107
  1,151
  1,196
  1,243
  1,293
  1,346
  1,401
  1,459
  1,521
  1,585
  1,654
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  356
  400
  443
  486
  529
  570
  611
  650
  689
  727
  764
  801
  838
  874
  911
  948
  986
  1,025
  1,065
  1,107
  1,151
  1,196
  1,243
  1,293
  1,346
  1,401
  1,459
  1,521
  1,585
  1,654
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  585
  700
  820
  948
  1,081
  1,220
  1,364
  1,513
  1,667
  1,826
  1,989
  2,158
  2,332
  2,513
  2,699
  2,892
  3,091
  3,299
  3,514
  3,737
  3,970
  4,212
  4,464
  4,727
  5,002
  5,289
  5,589
  5,902
  6,231
  6,574
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -79
  -88
  -97
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -308
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -363
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  224
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  730
  612
  723
  841
  965
  1,095
  1,230
  1,370
  1,516
  1,666
  1,821
  1,982
  2,149
  2,321
  2,499
  2,684
  2,875
  3,074
  3,280
  3,494
  3,717
  3,949
  4,191
  4,443
  4,706
  4,981
  5,269
  5,569
  5,883
  6,211
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  700
  560
  629
  693
  748
  794
  831
  856
  871
  873
  865
  846
  817
  779
  734
  682
  626
  566
  505
  444
  384
  328
  275
  226
  183
  145
  113
  86
  64
  47
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fortinet, Inc. is a network security company. The Company provides cyber security solutions to a range of enterprises, service providers and government organizations across the world. Its network security solution consists of FortiGate physical, virtual machine and cloud platforms, which provide integrated security and networking functions to protect data, applications and users from network-and content-level security threats. The Company's product offerings consist of its FortiGate product family, along with its FortiManager central management and FortiAnalyzer central logging and reporting product families. Its cybersecurity platform includes a range of products, which include its FortiMail e-mail security, FortiSandbox advanced threat protection (ATP), FortiWeb Web application firewall, FortiDDos and FortiDB database security appliances, as well as its FortiClient endpoint security software, FortiAP secure wireless access points and FortiSwitch secure switch connectivity products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fortinet (FTNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 476.9
Price to Sales 12
Price to Book 18.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 44.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 54.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 81.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 36.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 25.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

FTNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FTNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1494.93 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fortinet. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Fortinet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FTNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FTNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fortinet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fortinet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FTNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $353 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FTNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fortinet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fortinet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FTNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FTNT are equal to 14%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fortinet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FTNT is equal to -37.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $589.4 million for Fortinet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 168.097 million for Fortinet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fortinet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.8 billion.

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