Intrinsic value of Frontier Communications - FTR

Previous Close

$6.45

  Intrinsic Value

$6.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-0%

Previous close

$6.45

 
Intrinsic value

$6.42

 
Up/down potential

-0%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of FTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  9,311
  9,525
  9,769
  10,044
  10,349
  10,683
  11,047
  11,441
  11,865
  12,320
  12,807
  13,327
  13,881
  14,469
  15,093
  15,754
  16,454
  17,195
  17,977
  18,803
  19,675
  20,594
  21,563
  22,584
  23,659
  24,791
  25,982
  27,236
  28,555
  29,942
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,361
  8,533
  8,729
  8,949
  9,192
  9,460
  9,751
  10,066
  10,406
  10,770
  10,252
  10,668
  11,111
  11,582
  12,081
  12,611
  13,171
  13,764
  14,390
  15,051
  15,749
  16,484
  17,260
  18,077
  18,938
  19,844
  20,797
  21,801
  22,857
  23,967
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,361
  8,533
  8,729
  8,949
  9,192
  9,460
  9,751
  10,066
  10,406
  10,770
  10,252
  10,668
  11,111
  11,582
  12,081
  12,611
  13,171
  13,764
  14,390
  15,051
  15,749
  16,484
  17,260
  18,077
  18,938
  19,844
  20,797
  21,801
  22,857
  23,967
Operating income, $m
  949
  992
  1,041
  1,096
  1,156
  1,223
  1,296
  1,374
  1,459
  1,550
  2,556
  2,659
  2,770
  2,887
  3,012
  3,144
  3,284
  3,431
  3,587
  3,752
  3,926
  4,110
  4,303
  4,507
  4,721
  4,947
  5,185
  5,435
  5,698
  5,975
EBITDA, $m
  3,617
  3,700
  3,795
  3,902
  4,020
  4,150
  4,291
  4,444
  4,609
  4,786
  4,975
  5,177
  5,392
  5,620
  5,863
  6,119
  6,391
  6,679
  6,983
  7,304
  7,642
  7,999
  8,376
  8,772
  9,190
  9,629
  10,092
  10,579
  11,092
  11,631
Interest expense (income), $m
  1,467
  1,516
  1,535
  1,580
  1,632
  1,690
  1,754
  1,824
  1,901
  1,984
  2,074
  2,170
  2,272
  2,382
  2,499
  2,623
  2,754
  2,894
  3,042
  3,198
  3,363
  3,537
  3,721
  3,915
  4,119
  4,334
  4,561
  4,800
  5,051
  5,315
  5,594
Earnings before tax, $m
  -567
  -543
  -539
  -536
  -533
  -531
  -529
  -527
  -525
  -524
  386
  387
  388
  388
  389
  389
  390
  390
  390
  389
  389
  389
  388
  388
  387
  386
  385
  384
  383
  381
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  104
  104
  105
  105
  105
  105
  105
  105
  105
  105
  105
  105
  105
  105
  104
  104
  104
  104
  103
  103
Net income, $m
  -567
  -543
  -539
  -536
  -533
  -531
  -529
  -527
  -525
  -524
  282
  283
  283
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  283
  283
  282
  282
  281
  280
  279
  278

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  25,369
  25,953
  26,620
  27,369
  28,198
  29,109
  30,100
  31,173
  32,329
  33,570
  34,897
  36,314
  37,822
  39,424
  41,125
  42,927
  44,835
  46,852
  48,984
  51,235
  53,610
  56,114
  58,754
  61,536
  64,465
  67,550
  70,796
  74,212
  77,807
  81,587
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  25,369
  25,953
  26,620
  27,369
  28,198
  29,109
  30,100
  31,173
  32,329
  33,570
  34,897
  36,314
  37,822
  39,424
  41,125
  42,927
  44,835
  46,852
  48,984
  51,235
  53,610
  56,114
  58,754
  61,536
  64,465
  67,550
  70,796
  74,212
  77,807
  81,587
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
Average production assets, $m
  20,399
  20,869
  21,405
  22,007
  22,674
  23,406
  24,203
  25,066
  25,996
  26,994
  28,061
  29,200
  30,412
  31,701
  33,069
  34,518
  36,052
  37,674
  39,388
  41,198
  43,107
  45,121
  47,244
  49,481
  51,836
  54,316
  56,927
  59,674
  62,564
  65,604
Working capital, $m
  -912
  -933
  -957
  -984
  -1,014
  -1,047
  -1,083
  -1,121
  -1,163
  -1,207
  -1,255
  -1,306
  -1,360
  -1,418
  -1,479
  -1,544
  -1,613
  -1,685
  -1,762
  -1,843
  -1,928
  -2,018
  -2,113
  -2,213
  -2,319
  -2,429
  -2,546
  -2,669
  -2,798
  -2,934
Total debt, $m
  17,848
  18,374
  18,974
  19,648
  20,395
  21,214
  22,106
  23,072
  24,112
  25,229
  26,424
  27,698
  29,056
  30,498
  32,029
  33,651
  35,368
  37,183
  39,102
  41,127
  43,265
  45,519
  47,895
  50,398
  53,035
  55,811
  58,733
  61,807
  65,042
  68,444
Total liabilities, $m
  22,832
  23,358
  23,958
  24,632
  25,379
  26,198
  27,090
  28,056
  29,096
  30,213
  31,408
  32,682
  34,040
  35,482
  37,013
  38,635
  40,352
  42,167
  44,086
  46,111
  48,249
  50,503
  52,879
  55,382
  58,019
  60,795
  63,717
  66,791
  70,026
  73,428
Total equity, $m
  2,537
  2,595
  2,662
  2,737
  2,820
  2,911
  3,010
  3,117
  3,233
  3,357
  3,490
  3,631
  3,782
  3,942
  4,113
  4,293
  4,484
  4,685
  4,898
  5,123
  5,361
  5,611
  5,875
  6,154
  6,447
  6,755
  7,080
  7,421
  7,781
  8,159
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  25,369
  25,953
  26,620
  27,369
  28,199
  29,109
  30,100
  31,173
  32,329
  33,570
  34,898
  36,313
  37,822
  39,424
  41,126
  42,928
  44,836
  46,852
  48,984
  51,234
  53,610
  56,114
  58,754
  61,536
  64,466
  67,550
  70,797
  74,212
  77,807
  81,587
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.040
  7.080
  7.130
  7.180
  7.230
  7.290
  7.340
  7.400
  7.460
  7.520
  7.570
  7.630
  7.680
  7.740
  7.790
  7.840
  7.890
  7.940
  7.980
  8.030
  8.070
  8.110
  8.150
  8.190
  8.230
  8.260
  8.300
  8.330
  8.360
  8.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -567
  -543
  -539
  -536
  -533
  -531
  -529
  -527
  -525
  -524
  282
  283
  283
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  284
  283
  283
  282
  282
  281
  280
  279
  278
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,667
  2,708
  2,754
  2,806
  2,863
  2,926
  2,995
  3,070
  3,150
  3,236
  2,419
  2,517
  2,622
  2,733
  2,851
  2,976
  3,108
  3,248
  3,396
  3,552
  3,716
  3,890
  4,073
  4,266
  4,469
  4,682
  4,907
  5,144
  5,393
  5,655
Funds from operations, $m
  2,101
  2,165
  2,215
  2,270
  2,330
  2,396
  2,466
  2,543
  2,624
  2,712
  2,701
  2,800
  2,905
  3,016
  3,135
  3,260
  3,392
  3,532
  3,680
  3,836
  4,000
  4,174
  4,356
  4,549
  4,751
  4,964
  5,189
  5,425
  5,673
  5,934
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
Cash from operations, $m
  2,119
  2,186
  2,239
  2,297
  2,360
  2,428
  2,502
  2,581
  2,666
  2,756
  2,749
  2,851
  2,959
  3,074
  3,196
  3,325
  3,461
  3,605
  3,757
  3,917
  4,086
  4,264
  4,451
  4,649
  4,856
  5,075
  5,305
  5,547
  5,802
  6,070
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1,724
  -1,759
  -1,799
  -1,845
  -1,897
  -1,955
  -2,018
  -2,087
  -2,161
  -2,241
  -2,327
  -2,419
  -2,517
  -2,622
  -2,733
  -2,851
  -2,976
  -3,108
  -3,248
  -3,396
  -3,552
  -3,716
  -3,890
  -4,073
  -4,266
  -4,469
  -4,682
  -4,907
  -5,144
  -5,393
New CAPEX, $m
  -404
  -469
  -536
  -602
  -667
  -732
  -797
  -863
  -930
  -998
  -1,067
  -1,139
  -1,213
  -1,289
  -1,367
  -1,449
  -1,534
  -1,622
  -1,714
  -1,810
  -1,910
  -2,014
  -2,123
  -2,237
  -2,356
  -2,480
  -2,611
  -2,747
  -2,890
  -3,040
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,128
  -2,228
  -2,335
  -2,447
  -2,564
  -2,687
  -2,815
  -2,950
  -3,091
  -3,239
  -3,394
  -3,558
  -3,730
  -3,911
  -4,100
  -4,300
  -4,510
  -4,730
  -4,962
  -5,206
  -5,462
  -5,730
  -6,013
  -6,310
  -6,622
  -6,949
  -7,293
  -7,654
  -8,034
  -8,433
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -42
  -97
  -151
  -204
  -258
  -313
  -368
  -424
  -482
  -646
  -707
  -771
  -836
  -904
  -975
  -1,049
  -1,125
  -1,205
  -1,289
  -1,376
  -1,466
  -1,561
  -1,661
  -1,765
  -1,874
  -1,988
  -2,107
  -2,232
  -2,363
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  222
  525
  600
  674
  747
  819
  892
  966
  1,040
  1,117
  1,195
  1,275
  1,357
  1,442
  1,531
  1,622
  1,717
  1,816
  1,918
  2,026
  2,137
  2,254
  2,376
  2,503
  2,637
  2,776
  2,922
  3,075
  3,235
  3,402
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  830
  601
  606
  611
  616
  622
  628
  634
  641
  648
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  11
  27
  44
  61
  80
  100
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,052
  1,126
  1,206
  1,285
  1,363
  1,441
  1,520
  1,600
  1,681
  1,765
  1,195
  1,275
  1,357
  1,442
  1,531
  1,622
  1,717
  1,816
  1,918
  2,026
  2,137
  2,254
  2,376
  2,503
  2,648
  2,803
  2,966
  3,136
  3,315
  3,502
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,043
  1,084
  1,110
  1,134
  1,159
  1,183
  1,207
  1,232
  1,257
  1,282
  549
  567
  587
  606
  626
  647
  668
  690
  713
  737
  762
  788
  815
  843
  882
  929
  978
  1,029
  1,083
  1,139
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -830
  -601
  -606
  -611
  -616
  -622
  -628
  -634
  -641
  -648
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -308
  -325
  -342
  -359
  -378
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  213
  483
  504
  523
  542
  561
  579
  598
  616
  634
  416
  426
  436
  446
  456
  467
  477
  489
  500
  512
  524
  537
  551
  564
  589
  621
  653
  687
  723
  761
Discount rate, %
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.19
  15.95
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.39
  20.36
  21.38
  22.45
  23.57
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.65
  30.08
  31.59
  33.17
  34.82
  36.57
  38.39
  40.31
  42.33
  44.45
  46.67
  49.00
  51.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  189
  377
  342
  305
  267
  231
  196
  164
  134
  108
  54
  42
  31
  23
  17
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  65.7
  49.1
  36.8
  27.7
  21.0
  16.0
  12.2
  9.4
  7.2
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.5
  5.5
  5.4
  5.3

Frontier Communications Corporation (Frontier) is a provider of communications services in the United States. The Company offers a portfolio of communications services for residential and business customers. Its products and services include data and Internet services, video services, voice services, access services and customer premise equipment (CPE). The Company offers a range of broadband services. The principal residential service it provides is broadband Internet service. Its commercial services include Ethernet, Dedicated Internet, Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS), Time Division Multiplexing (TDM) data transport services and optical transport services. It also offers wireless broadband services (using unlicensed spectrum) in various markets utilizing networks that it owns or operates. In addition, the Company offers its Frontier Secure suite of products, including computer security, cloud backup and sharing, identity protection and equipment insurance.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Frontier Communications (FTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.4
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 59.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 62.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 391%
Total Debt to Equity 399.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital -1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Return On Equity -7.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.8%
EBITDA Margin 32.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Net Profit Margin -4.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Effective Tax Rate 40.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Payout Ratio -189.5%

FTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9128 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Frontier Communications. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Frontier Communications. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.5%, whose default value for FTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Frontier Communications, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Frontier Communications.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Frontier Communications.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Frontier Communications. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FTR are equal to 219.1%.

Life of production assets of 11.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Frontier Communications operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FTR is equal to -9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2274 million for Frontier Communications - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 105.81 million for Frontier Communications is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Frontier Communications at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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