Intrinsic value of StealthGas - GASS

Previous Close

$3.62

  Intrinsic Value

$3.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-4%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$3.62

 
Intrinsic value

$3.48

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GASS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.13
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  364
  382
  402
  422
  443
  466
  489
  514
  540
  567
  596
  626
  657
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384
  404
  424
  445
  468
  491
  516
  542
  570
  598
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  137
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384
  404
  424
  445
  468
  491
  516
  542
  570
  598
Operating income, $m
  7
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
EBITDA, $m
  46
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  195
  204
  215
  226
  237
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Net income, $m
  -8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,002
  987
  1,042
  1,099
  1,159
  1,222
  1,287
  1,355
  1,427
  1,502
  1,581
  1,663
  1,749
  1,840
  1,935
  2,034
  2,138
  2,248
  2,362
  2,482
  2,608
  2,741
  2,880
  3,025
  3,178
  3,339
  3,507
  3,684
  3,869
  4,064
  4,268
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  937
  987
  1,042
  1,099
  1,159
  1,222
  1,287
  1,355
  1,427
  1,502
  1,581
  1,663
  1,749
  1,840
  1,935
  2,034
  2,138
  2,248
  2,362
  2,482
  2,608
  2,741
  2,880
  3,025
  3,178
  3,339
  3,507
  3,684
  3,869
  4,064
  4,268
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
Average production assets, $m
  865
  913
  963
  1,016
  1,072
  1,129
  1,190
  1,253
  1,319
  1,389
  1,461
  1,537
  1,617
  1,701
  1,788
  1,880
  1,977
  2,078
  2,184
  2,295
  2,411
  2,534
  2,662
  2,797
  2,938
  3,086
  3,242
  3,405
  3,577
  3,757
  3,946
Working capital, $m
  -5
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Total debt, $m
  398
  363
  385
  408
  431
  456
  482
  509
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  702
  740
  780
  821
  865
  910
  958
  1,008
  1,061
  1,116
  1,174
  1,235
  1,299
  1,366
  1,436
  1,510
  1,587
  1,669
Total liabilities, $m
  428
  393
  415
  438
  461
  486
  512
  539
  568
  598
  629
  662
  696
  732
  770
  810
  851
  895
  940
  988
  1,038
  1,091
  1,146
  1,204
  1,265
  1,329
  1,396
  1,466
  1,540
  1,617
  1,699
Total equity, $m
  574
  594
  627
  662
  698
  735
  775
  816
  859
  904
  952
  1,001
  1,053
  1,108
  1,165
  1,224
  1,287
  1,353
  1,422
  1,494
  1,570
  1,650
  1,734
  1,821
  1,913
  2,010
  2,111
  2,218
  2,329
  2,446
  2,569
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,002
  987
  1,042
  1,100
  1,159
  1,221
  1,287
  1,355
  1,427
  1,502
  1,581
  1,663
  1,749
  1,840
  1,935
  2,034
  2,138
  2,248
  2,362
  2,482
  2,608
  2,741
  2,880
  3,025
  3,178
  3,339
  3,507
  3,684
  3,869
  4,063
  4,268
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.693
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.543
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
Funds from operations, $m
  35
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  180
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  36
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
New CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -44
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -358
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -24
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  29
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  49
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -35
  5
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -15
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -14
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.1
  86.5
  80.5
  74.9
  69.7
  64.9
  60.5
  56.3
  52.5
  49.0
  45.7
  42.6
  39.8
  37.1
  34.6
  32.3
  30.2
  28.2
  26.3
  24.6
  23.0
  21.4
  20.0
  18.7
  17.5
  16.3
  15.3
  14.3
  13.3
  12.4

StealthGas Inc. is a provider of international seaborne transportation services to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) producers and users, as well as crude oil and product carriers to oil producers, refineries and commodities traders. The Company owns a fleet of LPG carriers. Its LPG carriers carry various petroleum gas products in liquefied form, including propane, butane, butadiene, isopropane, propylene and vinyl chloride monomer, which are all byproducts of the production of crude oil and natural gas. The medium range product carriers in its fleet are capable of carrying refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and jet fuel, as well as edible oils and chemicals, while its Aframax tanker is used for carrying crude oil. Its fleet consists of approximately 50 LPG carriers, including two chartered-in LPG carriers, two 2008-built product carriers, a 2009-built product carrier and a 2010-built Aframax crude oil tanker.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  StealthGas (GASS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -18
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -63.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 59.8%
Total Debt to Equity 69.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Total Capital -0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity -1.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
EBITDA Margin 29.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Net Profit Margin -5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

GASS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GASS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $144 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by StealthGas. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of StealthGas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GASS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for GASS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of StealthGas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of StealthGas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GASS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GASS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for StealthGas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for StealthGas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GASS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GASS are equal to 600.3%.

Life of production assets of 22.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in StealthGas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GASS is equal to -10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $574 million for StealthGas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.23 million for StealthGas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of StealthGas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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CPLP Capital Produc 3.51 3.35  hold
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ StealthGas reports 2Q loss   [Aug-24-17 09:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aegean Marine (ANW) Jumps: Stock Rises 8.7%   [Jun-02-17 08:35AM  Zacks]
▶ Should StealthGas (GASS) Be On Your Radar Now?   [May-31-17 08:43AM  Zacks]
▶ StealthGas posts 1Q profit   [09:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ StealthGas reports 4Q loss   [09:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ What Makes StealthGas (GASS) a Strong Sell?   [Dec-15-16 08:08AM  Zacks]
▶ Hedge Fund Sentiment Is Stagnant On StealthGas Inc. (GASS)   [Dec-12-16 05:38AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ STEALTHGAS INC. Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On INVUITY INC (IVTY)   [09:45AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is GP Investments Acquisition Corp (GPIAU) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-24  03:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ StealthGas Adopts Stockholder Rights Plan   [Dec-24  06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Stealthgas (GASS) Downgraded From Buy to Hold   [Nov-25  09:33AM  at TheStreet]
Financial statements of GASS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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