Intrinsic value of Greenbrier - GBX

Previous Close

$57.65

  Intrinsic Value

$94.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+63%

Previous close

$57.65

 
Intrinsic value

$94.25

 
Up/down potential

+63%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GBX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,212
  2,263
  2,321
  2,387
  2,459
  2,538
  2,625
  2,719
  2,819
  2,928
  3,043
  3,167
  3,298
  3,438
  3,586
  3,744
  3,910
  4,086
  4,272
  4,468
  4,675
  4,894
  5,124
  5,366
  5,622
  5,891
  6,174
  6,472
  6,785
  7,115
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,568
  1,603
  1,643
  1,688
  1,738
  1,793
  1,852
  1,917
  1,986
  2,061
  2,099
  2,185
  2,275
  2,372
  2,474
  2,583
  2,697
  2,819
  2,947
  3,082
  3,225
  3,376
  3,535
  3,702
  3,878
  4,064
  4,259
  4,465
  4,681
  4,908
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  385
  394
  402
  411
  420
  430
  439
  449
  459
  469
  479
  489
  500
  511
  523
  534
  546
  558
  570
  583
  595
  609
  622
  636
  650
  664
  678
  693
  709
  724
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,953
  1,997
  2,045
  2,099
  2,158
  2,223
  2,291
  2,366
  2,445
  2,530
  2,578
  2,674
  2,775
  2,883
  2,997
  3,117
  3,243
  3,377
  3,517
  3,665
  3,820
  3,985
  4,157
  4,338
  4,528
  4,728
  4,937
  5,158
  5,390
  5,632
Operating income, $m
  259
  267
  276
  287
  301
  316
  334
  353
  374
  398
  465
  493
  523
  555
  590
  627
  667
  709
  755
  803
  855
  909
  967
  1,029
  1,094
  1,163
  1,236
  1,314
  1,396
  1,482
EBITDA, $m
  557
  570
  586
  605
  627
  651
  679
  709
  742
  778
  817
  859
  904
  953
  1,005
  1,060
  1,119
  1,182
  1,249
  1,320
  1,395
  1,475
  1,560
  1,650
  1,744
  1,845
  1,951
  2,063
  2,181
  2,306
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  27
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  233
  241
  251
  262
  275
  291
  308
  328
  349
  372
  440
  467
  497
  530
  564
  602
  641
  684
  729
  778
  829
  884
  942
  1,003
  1,069
  1,138
  1,211
  1,288
  1,370
  1,457
Tax expense, $m
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  101
  119
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
  173
  185
  197
  210
  224
  239
  254
  271
  289
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
Net income, $m
  170
  176
  183
  191
  201
  212
  225
  239
  255
  272
  321
  341
  363
  387
  412
  439
  468
  499
  532
  568
  605
  645
  688
  732
  780
  831
  884
  941
  1,000
  1,064

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  2,560
  2,619
  2,686
  2,761
  2,845
  2,937
  3,037
  3,145
  3,262
  3,387
  3,521
  3,664
  3,816
  3,978
  4,149
  4,331
  4,524
  4,727
  4,942
  5,170
  5,409
  5,662
  5,928
  6,209
  6,504
  6,816
  7,143
  7,488
  7,851
  8,232
Working capital, $m
  -1,086
  -1,111
  -1,140
  -1,172
  -1,207
  -1,246
  -1,289
  -1,335
  -1,384
  -1,437
  -1,494
  -1,555
  -1,619
  -1,688
  -1,761
  -1,838
  -1,920
  -2,006
  -2,097
  -2,194
  -2,295
  -2,403
  -2,516
  -2,635
  -2,760
  -2,892
  -3,031
  -3,178
  -3,332
  -3,493
Total debt, $m
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  170
  176
  183
  191
  201
  212
  225
  239
  255
  272
  321
  341
  363
  387
  412
  439
  468
  499
  532
  568
  605
  645
  688
  732
  780
  831
  884
  941
  1,000
  1,064
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  297
  303
  310
  318
  326
  335
  345
  356
  368
  380
  352
  366
  382
  398
  415
  433
  452
  473
  494
  517
  541
  566
  593
  621
  650
  682
  714
  749
  785
  823
Funds from operations, $m
  467
  480
  493
  509
  527
  548
  570
  595
  622
  652
  673
  708
  745
  784
  827
  872
  921
  972
  1,027
  1,085
  1,146
  1,211
  1,280
  1,353
  1,431
  1,512
  1,598
  1,689
  1,785
  1,887
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
Cash from operations, $m
  489
  505
  522
  541
  563
  587
  613
  641
  672
  705
  730
  768
  809
  853
  900
  950
  1,002
  1,058
  1,118
  1,181
  1,248
  1,319
  1,393
  1,472
  1,556
  1,644
  1,737
  1,836
  1,939
  2,049
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -251
  -256
  -262
  -269
  -276
  -285
  -294
  -304
  -315
  -326
  -339
  -352
  -366
  -382
  -398
  -415
  -433
  -452
  -473
  -494
  -517
  -541
  -566
  -593
  -621
  -650
  -682
  -714
  -749
  -785
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -59
  -67
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -328
  -345
  -363
  -381
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -345
  -360
  -377
  -394
  -412
  -432
  -451
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -544
  -570
  -597
  -625
  -656
  -688
  -721
  -757
  -794
  -832
  -874
  -917
  -961
  -1,010
  -1,059
  -1,112
  -1,166
Free cash flow, $m
  187
  190
  192
  197
  203
  210
  219
  229
  241
  254
  257
  273
  291
  310
  330
  353
  377
  403
  430
  460
  491
  525
  561
  599
  640
  683
  728
  777
  828
  882
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  181
  190
  192
  197
  203
  210
  219
  229
  241
  254
  257
  273
  291
  310
  330
  353
  377
  403
  430
  460
  491
  525
  561
  599
  640
  683
  728
  777
  828
  882
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
Cash available for distribution, $m
  181
  190
  192
  197
  203
  210
  219
  229
  241
  254
  257
  273
  291
  310
  330
  353
  377
  403
  430
  460
  491
  525
  561
  599
  640
  683
  728
  777
  828
  882
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  173
  174
  168
  162
  157
  153
  148
  143
  138
  133
  122
  117
  111
  104
  97
  90
  82
  74
  66
  58
  51
  44
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of railroad freight car equipment in North America and Europe; a manufacturer and marketer of marine barges in North America; a provider of wheel services, parts, leasing and other services to the railroad and related transportation industries in North America, and a provider of railcar repair, refurbishment and retrofitting services in North America through a joint venture partnership. It operates in four segments: Manufacturing; Wheels & Parts; Leasing & Services, and GBW Joint Venture. It also produces rail castings and tank heads through unconsolidated joint ventures. It operates an integrated business model in North America that combines freight car manufacturing, wheel services, repair, refurbishment, retrofitting, component parts, leasing and fleet management services. Its customers include railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers and transportation companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Greenbrier (GBX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -38.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 153
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 54.9%
Total Debt to Equity 55.3%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Equity 12.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
EBITDA Margin 14.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Operating Margin 12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.4%
Payout Ratio 21.6%

GBX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GBX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2169 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Greenbrier. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Greenbrier. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GBX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GBX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Greenbrier, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Greenbrier.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GBX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $377 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GBX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 23.4% for Greenbrier.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Greenbrier. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GBX stock is equal to 1.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GBX are equal to 115.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Greenbrier operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GBX is equal to -49.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Greenbrier - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29 million for Greenbrier is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Greenbrier at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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