Intrinsic value of GCP Applied Technologies - GCP

Previous Close

$26.57

  Intrinsic Value

$22.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-14%

Previous close

$26.57

 
Intrinsic value

$22.78

 
Up/down potential

-14%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of GCP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  1,143
  1,204
  1,268
  1,335
  1,406
  1,479
  1,556
  1,637
  1,722
  1,811
  1,904
  2,001
  2,104
  2,211
  2,324
  2,442
  2,566
  2,696
  2,832
  2,975
  3,125
  3,283
  3,448
  3,622
  3,804
  3,995
  4,196
  4,407
  4,628
  4,861
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,031
  1,084
  1,140
  1,199
  1,261
  1,325
  1,393
  1,464
  1,538
  1,616
  1,668
  1,754
  1,843
  1,937
  2,036
  2,140
  2,248
  2,362
  2,481
  2,607
  2,739
  2,877
  3,022
  3,174
  3,333
  3,501
  3,677
  3,862
  4,056
  4,259
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,031
  1,084
  1,140
  1,199
  1,261
  1,325
  1,393
  1,464
  1,538
  1,616
  1,668
  1,754
  1,843
  1,937
  2,036
  2,140
  2,248
  2,362
  2,481
  2,607
  2,739
  2,877
  3,022
  3,174
  3,333
  3,501
  3,677
  3,862
  4,056
  4,259
Operating income, $m
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  195
  236
  248
  260
  274
  288
  302
  317
  334
  350
  368
  387
  406
  427
  448
  471
  494
  519
  545
  573
  601
EBITDA, $m
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  345
  363
  381
  401
  421
  442
  465
  488
  513
  538
  566
  594
  624
  655
  688
  723
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  56
  62
  69
  76
  84
  91
  100
  108
  117
  127
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  194
  207
  221
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  320
  339
  359
  381
  403
  427
  451
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  99
  101
  102
  104
  106
  108
  110
  113
  115
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  150
Tax expense, $m
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Net income, $m
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  79
  81
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  109

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,518
  1,599
  1,684
  1,774
  1,867
  1,965
  2,067
  2,174
  2,287
  2,405
  2,528
  2,658
  2,794
  2,936
  3,086
  3,243
  3,407
  3,580
  3,761
  3,951
  4,150
  4,360
  4,579
  4,810
  5,052
  5,306
  5,573
  5,853
  6,147
  6,455
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,518
  1,599
  1,684
  1,774
  1,867
  1,965
  2,067
  2,174
  2,287
  2,405
  2,528
  2,658
  2,794
  2,936
  3,086
  3,243
  3,407
  3,580
  3,761
  3,951
  4,150
  4,360
  4,579
  4,810
  5,052
  5,306
  5,573
  5,853
  6,147
  6,455
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
Average production assets, $m
  336
  354
  373
  393
  413
  435
  458
  481
  506
  532
  560
  588
  618
  650
  683
  718
  754
  792
  833
  875
  919
  965
  1,014
  1,065
  1,118
  1,175
  1,234
  1,296
  1,361
  1,429
Working capital, $m
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -301
Total debt, $m
  608
  675
  745
  819
  896
  976
  1,061
  1,149
  1,242
  1,339
  1,441
  1,548
  1,660
  1,778
  1,901
  2,031
  2,166
  2,309
  2,458
  2,615
  2,780
  2,952
  3,134
  3,324
  3,523
  3,733
  3,953
  4,184
  4,426
  4,681
Total liabilities, $m
  1,252
  1,319
  1,390
  1,463
  1,540
  1,621
  1,705
  1,794
  1,887
  1,984
  2,086
  2,193
  2,305
  2,422
  2,546
  2,675
  2,811
  2,953
  3,103
  3,260
  3,424
  3,597
  3,778
  3,968
  4,168
  4,378
  4,598
  4,828
  5,071
  5,325
Total equity, $m
  266
  280
  295
  310
  327
  344
  362
  381
  400
  421
  442
  465
  489
  514
  540
  567
  596
  626
  658
  691
  726
  763
  801
  842
  884
  929
  975
  1,024
  1,076
  1,130
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,518
  1,599
  1,685
  1,773
  1,867
  1,965
  2,067
  2,175
  2,287
  2,405
  2,528
  2,658
  2,794
  2,936
  3,086
  3,242
  3,407
  3,579
  3,761
  3,951
  4,150
  4,360
  4,579
  4,810
  5,052
  5,307
  5,573
  5,852
  6,147
  6,455
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.290
  2.410
  2.530
  2.640
  2.740
  2.840
  2.930
  3.020
  3.100
  3.180
  3.260
  3.330
  3.400
  3.460
  3.520
  3.580
  3.630
  3.690
  3.740
  3.780
  3.830
  3.870
  3.910
  3.950
  3.990
  4.020
  4.050
  4.090
  4.120
  4.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  79
  81
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  109
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  120
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  144
  149
  154
  160
  165
  171
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  103
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  126
  130
  125
  129
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  181
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  60
  60
  60
  60
  61
  53
  53
  54
  54
  54
  55
  55
  55
  56
  56
  56
  57
  57
  58
  58
  59
  60
  60
  61
  61
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  255
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  255
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  122
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  153
  158
  155
  160
  166
  171
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  239
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  347
  112
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  133
  137
  133
  137
  142
  147
  151
  156
  162
  167
  173
  180
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  332
  102
  99
  96
  93
  89
  85
  81
  77
  72
  63
  59
  54
  49
  44
  40
  35
  31
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

GCP Applied Technologies Inc. produces and sells specialty construction chemicals, specialty building materials, and packaging sealants and coatings. The Company operates through two segments: Specialty Construction Chemicals and Specialty Building Materials. The Specialty Construction Chemicals segment manufactures and markets products to manage performance of Portland cement, and materials based on Portland cement, such as concrete admixtures and cement additives, as well as concrete production management systems. The Specialty Building Materials segment manufactures and markets building envelope products, residential building products and specialty construction products. Its brands include ADVA, CBA, MIRA, ADPRUFE, DARABLEND and APPERTA.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GCP Applied Technologies (GCP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book -13.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity -547.6%
Total Debt to Equity -581.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 11.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Return On Equity 44.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.1%
EBITDA Margin 13.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Operating Margin 13%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Effective Tax Rate 30.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

GCP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GCP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1084.4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GCP Applied Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of GCP Applied Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GCP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GCP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GCP Applied Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GCP Applied Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GCP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GCP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.2% for GCP Applied Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GCP Applied Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GCP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GCP are equal to 29.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GCP Applied Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GCP is equal to -6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $490.2 million for GCP Applied Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 72.158 million for GCP Applied Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GCP Applied Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
GRA W.R. Grace 64.20 75.16  hold
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PPG PPG Industries 107.08 70.06  sell
USCR U S Concrete 35.66 72.30  buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ GCP Applied Tech: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ Insider Buys Of The Week: Appian, GCP, GTT   [Oct-08-18 07:40AM  Benzinga]
▶ GCP Applied Technologies Opens Plant in Japan   [Sep-13-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Shares of GCP Applied Technologies Are Tanking Today   [Aug-08-18 12:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ GCP Applied Tech: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-07-18 07:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ GCP Applied Technologies Named to the Constructech 50   [Jul-12-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Wired News GCP Applied Technologies Acquires R.I.W.   [May-10-18 07:50AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ GCP Applied Tech: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 09:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ GCP Applied Technologies Recognized for Board Diversity   [Mar-28-18 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ GCP Applied Tech reports 4Q loss   [Feb-27-18 08:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ G C P Applied Tech Gets Relative Strength Rating Upgrade   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ GCP Applied Technologies Introduces New Cement Additives   [Nov-16-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ GCP Applied Tech beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-02-17 08:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ GCP Applied Technologies Acquires Ductilcrete Technologies   [Oct-31-17 04:41PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ GCP Applied Technologies Announces Price Increase   [Oct-26-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ GCP Applied Technologies Revises 2017 Outlook   [Oct-12-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ GCP Applied Tech reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 03:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Four Chemicals Picks Into Q2 Earnings   [Jul-17-17 04:05PM  Barrons.com]

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