Intrinsic value of GoDaddy Cl A - GDDY

Previous Close

$62.09

  Intrinsic Value

$92.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+50%

Previous close

$62.09

 
Intrinsic value

$92.99

 
Up/down potential

+50%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GDDY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.80
  15.62
  14.56
  13.60
  12.74
  11.97
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
Revenue, $m
  2,607
  3,014
  3,453
  3,922
  4,422
  4,952
  5,510
  6,096
  6,711
  7,353
  8,023
  8,721
  9,448
  10,204
  10,989
  11,806
  12,654
  13,536
  14,453
  15,406
  16,397
  17,428
  18,502
  19,621
  20,787
  22,002
  23,270
  24,593
  25,975
  27,418
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,080
  2,340
  2,620
  2,919
  3,238
  3,575
  3,931
  4,305
  4,696
  5,106
  5,114
  5,559
  6,023
  6,504
  7,005
  7,526
  8,066
  8,629
  9,213
  9,820
  10,452
  11,110
  11,794
  12,507
  13,250
  14,025
  14,833
  15,677
  16,558
  17,477
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  61
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,113
  2,373
  2,654
  2,954
  3,274
  3,611
  3,968
  4,343
  4,735
  5,146
  5,155
  5,601
  6,065
  6,547
  7,049
  7,571
  8,112
  8,676
  9,261
  9,869
  10,503
  11,162
  11,847
  12,561
  13,305
  14,081
  14,891
  15,736
  16,618
  17,538
Operating income, $m
  494
  641
  799
  969
  1,149
  1,340
  1,542
  1,753
  1,975
  2,207
  2,868
  3,120
  3,383
  3,656
  3,940
  4,235
  4,541
  4,860
  5,191
  5,536
  5,894
  6,267
  6,655
  7,060
  7,481
  7,920
  8,379
  8,857
  9,357
  9,879
EBITDA, $m
  1,041
  1,208
  1,388
  1,581
  1,786
  2,003
  2,233
  2,473
  2,726
  2,989
  3,265
  3,551
  3,850
  4,160
  4,483
  4,818
  5,167
  5,529
  5,906
  6,297
  6,705
  7,128
  7,570
  8,029
  8,508
  9,008
  9,529
  10,073
  10,641
  11,234
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  131
  173
  224
  279
  338
  400
  466
  536
  609
  686
  766
  850
  937
  1,028
  1,122
  1,220
  1,322
  1,428
  1,539
  1,653
  1,772
  1,896
  2,025
  2,159
  2,299
  2,444
  2,596
  2,755
  2,920
  3,093
Earnings before tax, $m
  363
  468
  575
  690
  811
  940
  1,076
  1,218
  1,366
  1,522
  2,102
  2,270
  2,446
  2,628
  2,818
  3,014
  3,219
  3,432
  3,653
  3,883
  4,122
  4,371
  4,630
  4,901
  5,182
  5,476
  5,783
  6,103
  6,437
  6,786
Tax expense, $m
  98
  126
  155
  186
  219
  254
  290
  329
  369
  411
  568
  613
  660
  710
  761
  814
  869
  927
  986
  1,048
  1,113
  1,180
  1,250
  1,323
  1,399
  1,479
  1,561
  1,648
  1,738
  1,832
Net income, $m
  265
  341
  420
  503
  592
  686
  785
  889
  997
  1,111
  1,534
  1,657
  1,785
  1,918
  2,057
  2,201
  2,350
  2,505
  2,667
  2,834
  3,009
  3,191
  3,380
  3,577
  3,783
  3,997
  4,221
  4,455
  4,699
  4,954

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,701
  7,748
  8,876
  10,084
  11,368
  12,729
  14,164
  15,671
  17,251
  18,902
  20,625
  22,420
  24,288
  26,231
  28,250
  30,349
  32,530
  34,797
  37,153
  39,603
  42,151
  44,803
  47,564
  50,439
  53,436
  56,561
  59,820
  63,221
  66,773
  70,483
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,701
  7,748
  8,876
  10,084
  11,368
  12,729
  14,164
  15,671
  17,251
  18,902
  20,625
  22,420
  24,288
  26,231
  28,250
  30,349
  32,530
  34,797
  37,153
  39,603
  42,151
  44,803
  47,564
  50,439
  53,436
  56,561
  59,820
  63,221
  66,773
  70,483
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
Average production assets, $m
  2,242
  2,592
  2,969
  3,373
  3,803
  4,258
  4,738
  5,243
  5,771
  6,323
  6,900
  7,500
  8,125
  8,775
  9,451
  10,153
  10,883
  11,641
  12,429
  13,249
  14,101
  14,988
  15,912
  16,874
  17,877
  18,922
  20,012
  21,150
  22,338
  23,579
Working capital, $m
  -1,554
  -1,796
  -2,058
  -2,338
  -2,636
  -2,951
  -3,284
  -3,633
  -3,999
  -4,382
  -4,782
  -5,198
  -5,631
  -6,081
  -6,550
  -7,036
  -7,542
  -8,067
  -8,614
  -9,182
  -9,773
  -10,387
  -11,027
  -11,694
  -12,389
  -13,113
  -13,869
  -14,657
  -15,481
  -16,341
Total debt, $m
  3,207
  4,149
  5,164
  6,251
  7,407
  8,632
  9,923
  11,280
  12,701
  14,187
  15,738
  17,353
  19,035
  20,783
  22,601
  24,490
  26,453
  28,493
  30,613
  32,818
  35,112
  37,498
  39,983
  42,571
  45,268
  48,080
  51,014
  54,075
  57,271
  60,610
Total liabilities, $m
  6,031
  6,973
  7,989
  9,075
  10,232
  11,456
  12,747
  14,104
  15,526
  17,012
  18,562
  20,178
  21,859
  23,608
  25,425
  27,314
  29,277
  31,317
  33,438
  35,643
  37,936
  40,323
  42,807
  45,395
  48,093
  50,905
  53,838
  56,899
  60,096
  63,434
Total equity, $m
  670
  775
  888
  1,008
  1,137
  1,273
  1,416
  1,567
  1,725
  1,890
  2,062
  2,242
  2,429
  2,623
  2,825
  3,035
  3,253
  3,480
  3,715
  3,960
  4,215
  4,480
  4,756
  5,044
  5,344
  5,656
  5,982
  6,322
  6,677
  7,048
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,701
  7,748
  8,877
  10,083
  11,369
  12,729
  14,163
  15,671
  17,251
  18,902
  20,624
  22,420
  24,288
  26,231
  28,250
  30,349
  32,530
  34,797
  37,153
  39,603
  42,151
  44,803
  47,563
  50,439
  53,437
  56,561
  59,820
  63,221
  66,773
  70,482
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.790
  5.350
  5.820
  6.200
  6.520
  6.780
  7.010
  7.200
  7.360
  7.510
  7.630
  7.740
  7.840
  7.920
  8.000
  8.070
  8.130
  8.190
  8.240
  8.290
  8.330
  8.370
  8.410
  8.440
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.580
  8.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  265
  341
  420
  503
  592
  686
  785
  889
  997
  1,111
  1,534
  1,657
  1,785
  1,918
  2,057
  2,201
  2,350
  2,505
  2,667
  2,834
  3,009
  3,191
  3,380
  3,577
  3,783
  3,997
  4,221
  4,455
  4,699
  4,954
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  547
  568
  589
  612
  637
  663
  691
  720
  750
  782
  397
  431
  467
  504
  543
  584
  625
  669
  714
  761
  810
  861
  914
  970
  1,027
  1,087
  1,150
  1,216
  1,284
  1,355
Funds from operations, $m
  812
  909
  1,009
  1,116
  1,230
  1,350
  1,476
  1,609
  1,748
  1,893
  1,931
  2,089
  2,252
  2,423
  2,600
  2,784
  2,975
  3,174
  3,381
  3,596
  3,819
  4,052
  4,295
  4,547
  4,810
  5,085
  5,371
  5,670
  5,983
  6,309
Change in working capital, $m
  -223
  -243
  -262
  -280
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -350
  -366
  -383
  -399
  -416
  -433
  -450
  -468
  -487
  -506
  -526
  -546
  -568
  -591
  -615
  -640
  -667
  -695
  -724
  -756
  -789
  -823
  -860
Cash from operations, $m
  1,036
  1,152
  1,271
  1,396
  1,527
  1,665
  1,809
  1,958
  2,114
  2,276
  2,330
  2,505
  2,686
  2,873
  3,068
  3,271
  3,481
  3,700
  3,927
  4,164
  4,410
  4,667
  4,935
  5,214
  5,505
  5,809
  6,127
  6,459
  6,806
  7,169
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -110
  -129
  -149
  -171
  -194
  -219
  -245
  -272
  -301
  -332
  -363
  -397
  -431
  -467
  -504
  -543
  -584
  -625
  -669
  -714
  -761
  -810
  -861
  -914
  -970
  -1,027
  -1,087
  -1,150
  -1,216
  -1,284
New CAPEX, $m
  -322
  -350
  -377
  -404
  -430
  -455
  -480
  -504
  -528
  -552
  -576
  -600
  -625
  -650
  -676
  -702
  -730
  -758
  -788
  -820
  -853
  -887
  -924
  -962
  -1,003
  -1,045
  -1,090
  -1,138
  -1,188
  -1,241
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -432
  -479
  -526
  -575
  -624
  -674
  -725
  -776
  -829
  -884
  -939
  -997
  -1,056
  -1,117
  -1,180
  -1,245
  -1,314
  -1,383
  -1,457
  -1,534
  -1,614
  -1,697
  -1,785
  -1,876
  -1,973
  -2,072
  -2,177
  -2,288
  -2,404
  -2,525
Free cash flow, $m
  603
  673
  744
  821
  904
  991
  1,084
  1,182
  1,284
  1,391
  1,391
  1,508
  1,630
  1,756
  1,888
  2,025
  2,168
  2,316
  2,470
  2,630
  2,796
  2,969
  3,150
  3,337
  3,533
  3,737
  3,949
  4,171
  4,402
  4,644
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  779
  942
  1,015
  1,087
  1,156
  1,224
  1,291
  1,357
  1,422
  1,486
  1,551
  1,615
  1,681
  1,749
  1,818
  1,889
  1,963
  2,040
  2,121
  2,205
  2,293
  2,387
  2,485
  2,588
  2,697
  2,812
  2,933
  3,061
  3,196
  3,339
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  779
  942
  1,015
  1,087
  1,156
  1,224
  1,291
  1,357
  1,422
  1,486
  1,551
  1,615
  1,681
  1,749
  1,818
  1,889
  1,963
  2,040
  2,121
  2,205
  2,293
  2,387
  2,485
  2,588
  2,697
  2,812
  2,933
  3,061
  3,196
  3,339
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,383
  1,615
  1,759
  1,908
  2,060
  2,216
  2,375
  2,538
  2,706
  2,878
  2,941
  3,123
  3,311
  3,505
  3,706
  3,914
  4,131
  4,356
  4,590
  4,835
  5,090
  5,356
  5,634
  5,925
  6,230
  6,549
  6,883
  7,232
  7,599
  7,983
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -184
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -326
  -340
  -355
  -371
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,199
  1,510
  1,647
  1,787
  1,932
  2,080
  2,232
  2,388
  2,548
  2,712
  2,769
  2,944
  3,124
  3,311
  3,504
  3,704
  3,913
  4,129
  4,355
  4,590
  4,835
  5,091
  5,358
  5,638
  5,930
  6,236
  6,557
  6,892
  7,244
  7,612
Discount rate, %
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,107
  1,278
  1,266
  1,238
  1,195
  1,137
  1,067
  987
  900
  808
  686
  599
  513
  432
  358
  290
  231
  180
  137
  102
  74
  52
  36
  24
  16
  10
  6
  4
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

GoDaddy Inc. is a technology provider to small businesses, Web design professionals and individuals. The Company delivers cloud-based products and personalized customer care. It operates a domain marketplace, where its customers can find the digital real estate that matches their idea. It provides Website building, hosting and security tools to help customers construct and protect online presence. It provides applications that enable connecting to customers and managing businesses. The Company provides search, discovery and recommendation tools, as well as a selection of domain name for ventures. It provides productivity tools, such as domain-specific e-mail, online storage, invoicing, bookkeeping and payment solutions to run ventures, as well as marketing products. The Company's products, including GoCentral enable to build a Website or online store for both desktop and mobile. Its products are powered by a cloud platform and enable its customers to get found online.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GoDaddy Cl A (GDDY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -610.3
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 18.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 32
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 143
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 184%
Total Debt to Equity 184.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Return On Total Capital -1.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Return On Equity -3.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.9%
EBITDA Margin 10%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Operating Margin 2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Net Profit Margin -0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Payout Ratio 0%

GDDY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GDDY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2231.9 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GoDaddy Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of GoDaddy Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GDDY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for GDDY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GoDaddy Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GoDaddy Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GDDY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $32 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GDDY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for GoDaddy Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GoDaddy Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GDDY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GDDY are equal to 86%.

Life of production assets of 17.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GoDaddy Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GDDY is equal to -59.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $486.5 million for GoDaddy Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 158.453 million for GoDaddy Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GoDaddy Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.8 billion.

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