Intrinsic value of Genesis Healthcare - GEN

Previous Close

$0.99

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$0.99

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.01
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,732
  5,847
  5,981
  6,135
  6,307
  6,499
  6,708
  6,937
  7,184
  7,451
  7,737
  8,042
  8,369
  8,716
  9,086
  9,478
  9,893
  10,333
  10,798
  11,289
  11,808
  12,355
  12,932
  13,541
  14,182
  14,857
  15,568
  16,316
  17,103
  17,931
  18,803
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,688
  5,818
  5,966
  6,133
  6,317
  6,520
  6,740
  6,979
  7,236
  7,512
  7,763
  8,079
  8,414
  8,771
  9,149
  9,550
  9,974
  10,423
  10,897
  11,398
  11,926
  12,483
  13,071
  13,690
  14,341
  15,027
  15,750
  16,510
  17,309
  18,150
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,346
  5,688
  5,818
  5,966
  6,133
  6,317
  6,520
  6,740
  6,979
  7,236
  7,512
  7,763
  8,079
  8,414
  8,771
  9,149
  9,550
  9,974
  10,423
  10,897
  11,398
  11,926
  12,483
  13,071
  13,690
  14,341
  15,027
  15,750
  16,510
  17,309
  18,150
Operating income, $m
  387
  159
  163
  169
  175
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  224
  279
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  358
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  540
  566
  593
  622
  652
EBITDA, $m
  641
  436
  446
  458
  470
  485
  500
  517
  536
  556
  577
  600
  624
  650
  678
  707
  738
  771
  805
  842
  881
  921
  965
  1,010
  1,058
  1,108
  1,161
  1,217
  1,276
  1,337
  1,402
Interest expense (income), $m
  446
  431
  346
  357
  369
  382
  397
  413
  431
  450
  470
  493
  516
  541
  568
  597
  627
  659
  693
  729
  767
  807
  850
  894
  941
  991
  1,043
  1,098
  1,156
  1,217
  1,281
Earnings before tax, $m
  -136
  -272
  -183
  -188
  -194
  -201
  -208
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -246
  -213
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -338
  -358
  -379
  -401
  -424
  -449
  -475
  -503
  -532
  -563
  -595
  -628
Tax expense, $m
  -18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -64
  -272
  -183
  -188
  -194
  -201
  -208
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -246
  -213
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -338
  -358
  -379
  -401
  -424
  -449
  -475
  -503
  -532
  -563
  -595
  -628

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,779
  5,841
  5,975
  6,129
  6,301
  6,492
  6,702
  6,930
  7,177
  7,443
  7,729
  8,034
  8,361
  8,708
  9,077
  9,468
  9,883
  10,322
  10,787
  11,278
  11,796
  12,343
  12,919
  13,527
  14,167
  14,842
  15,552
  16,299
  17,086
  17,913
  18,784
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,728
  5,841
  5,975
  6,129
  6,301
  6,492
  6,702
  6,930
  7,177
  7,443
  7,729
  8,034
  8,361
  8,708
  9,077
  9,468
  9,883
  10,322
  10,787
  11,278
  11,796
  12,343
  12,919
  13,527
  14,167
  14,842
  15,552
  16,299
  17,086
  17,913
  18,784
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
Average production assets, $m
  4,118
  4,198
  4,294
  4,405
  4,529
  4,666
  4,817
  4,981
  5,158
  5,350
  5,555
  5,774
  6,009
  6,258
  6,524
  6,805
  7,103
  7,419
  7,753
  8,105
  8,478
  8,871
  9,285
  9,722
  10,182
  10,667
  11,177
  11,715
  12,280
  12,875
  13,500
Working capital, $m
  201
  181
  185
  190
  196
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  556
  583
Total debt, $m
  5,040
  4,028
  4,149
  4,287
  4,442
  4,614
  4,803
  5,008
  5,230
  5,470
  5,727
  6,002
  6,295
  6,608
  6,940
  7,292
  7,666
  8,061
  8,479
  8,921
  9,387
  9,879
  10,398
  10,945
  11,522
  12,129
  12,768
  13,440
  14,148
  14,893
  15,676
Total liabilities, $m
  6,270
  5,257
  5,378
  5,516
  5,671
  5,843
  6,032
  6,237
  6,459
  6,699
  6,956
  7,231
  7,524
  7,837
  8,169
  8,521
  8,895
  9,290
  9,708
  10,150
  10,616
  11,108
  11,627
  12,174
  12,751
  13,358
  13,997
  14,669
  15,377
  16,122
  16,905
Total equity, $m
  -490
  584
  598
  613
  630
  649
  670
  693
  718
  744
  773
  803
  836
  871
  908
  947
  988
  1,032
  1,079
  1,128
  1,180
  1,234
  1,292
  1,353
  1,417
  1,484
  1,555
  1,630
  1,709
  1,791
  1,878
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,780
  5,841
  5,976
  6,129
  6,301
  6,492
  6,702
  6,930
  7,177
  7,443
  7,729
  8,034
  8,360
  8,708
  9,077
  9,468
  9,883
  10,322
  10,787
  11,278
  11,796
  12,342
  12,919
  13,527
  14,168
  14,842
  15,552
  16,299
  17,086
  17,913
  18,783
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -10.286
  6.900
  6.940
  6.990
  7.050
  7.110
  7.170
  7.230
  7.290
  7.350
  7.410
  7.470
  7.530
  7.590
  7.650
  7.700
  7.760
  7.810
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.000
  8.050
  8.090
  8.130
  8.170
  8.210
  8.250
  8.280
  8.310
  8.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.094
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -64
  -272
  -183
  -188
  -194
  -201
  -208
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -246
  -213
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -338
  -358
  -379
  -401
  -424
  -449
  -475
  -503
  -532
  -563
  -595
  -628
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  254
  277
  283
  289
  296
  303
  312
  321
  331
  341
  353
  321
  334
  348
  362
  378
  395
  412
  431
  450
  471
  493
  516
  540
  566
  593
  621
  651
  682
  715
  750
Funds from operations, $m
  -57
  5
  100
  101
  102
  103
  104
  104
  105
  106
  107
  107
  108
  109
  109
  110
  111
  111
  112
  113
  113
  114
  115
  116
  116
  117
  118
  119
  120
  121
  122
Change in working capital, $m
  -125
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Cash from operations, $m
  68
  1
  96
  96
  96
  97
  97
  97
  97
  98
  98
  98
  98
  98
  98
  98
  98
  98
  98
  98
  97
  97
  97
  97
  97
  96
  96
  96
  95
  95
  95
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -229
  -233
  -239
  -245
  -252
  -259
  -268
  -277
  -287
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -362
  -378
  -395
  -412
  -431
  -450
  -471
  -493
  -516
  -540
  -566
  -593
  -621
  -651
  -682
  -715
New CAPEX, $m
  -201
  -80
  -97
  -110
  -124
  -137
  -151
  -164
  -178
  -191
  -205
  -220
  -234
  -250
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -316
  -334
  -353
  -372
  -393
  -414
  -437
  -460
  -485
  -510
  -537
  -565
  -595
  -626
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -309
  -330
  -349
  -369
  -389
  -410
  -432
  -455
  -478
  -502
  -529
  -555
  -584
  -613
  -643
  -676
  -711
  -746
  -784
  -822
  -864
  -907
  -953
  -1,000
  -1,051
  -1,103
  -1,158
  -1,216
  -1,277
  -1,341
Free cash flow, $m
  55
  -307
  -234
  -253
  -272
  -292
  -313
  -334
  -357
  -380
  -405
  -430
  -457
  -485
  -515
  -546
  -578
  -613
  -648
  -686
  -725
  -767
  -810
  -856
  -904
  -954
  -1,007
  -1,063
  -1,121
  -1,182
  -1,246
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -54
  -984
  121
  138
  155
  172
  189
  205
  222
  240
  257
  275
  293
  312
  332
  352
  373
  395
  418
  442
  466
  492
  519
  547
  576
  607
  639
  673
  708
  745
  783
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  1,369
  196
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  262
  275
  244
  258
  274
  290
  307
  325
  345
  365
  387
  409
  433
  459
  485
  513
  543
  574
  607
  641
  677
  716
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -66
  385
  317
  341
  366
  392
  418
  444
  472
  502
  532
  519
  551
  586
  622
  659
  698
  740
  783
  829
  875
  925
  978
  1,032
  1,089
  1,150
  1,213
  1,280
  1,349
  1,422
  1,499
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -10
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  54
  -1,369
  -196
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -244
  -258
  -274
  -290
  -307
  -325
  -345
  -365
  -387
  -409
  -433
  -459
  -485
  -513
  -543
  -574
  -607
  -641
  -677
  -716
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1,268
  -113
  -115
  -117
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -259
  -275
  -291
  -309
  -327
  -347
  -368
  -390
  -413
  -437
  -463
Discount rate, %
 
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.05
  25.25
  26.51
  27.84
  29.23
  30.69
  32.22
  33.83
  35.53
  37.30
  39.17
  41.13
  43.18
  45.34
  47.61
  49.99
  52.49
  55.11
  57.87
  60.76
  63.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -1,098
  -84
  -71
  -60
  -51
  -42
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  37.4
  27.9
  20.8
  15.4
  11.4
  8.4
  6.2
  4.5
  3.3
  2.5
  1.9
  1.4
  1.1
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Genesis Healthcare, Inc. is a holding company that provides post-acute care. The Company operates through three segments: inpatient services, which includes the operation of skilled nursing facilities and assisted or senior living facilities; rehabilitation therapy services, which includes its integrated and third-party rehabilitation and respiratory therapy services, and all other services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offered inpatient services through its network of 499 skilled nursing and assisted/senior living facilities across 34 states, consisting of 473 skilled nursing facilities and 26 stand-alone assisted/senior living facilities. Its services focus primarily on the medical and physical issues facing elderly patients and are provided by its skilled nursing companies, assisted or senior living communities, integrated and third-party rehabilitation therapy business, and other ancillary services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Genesis Healthcare (GEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.4
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book -0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -1022.9%
Total Debt to Equity -1028.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital -1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.4%
Return On Equity 13.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 9.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Net Profit Margin -1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 13.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

GEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5732 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Genesis Healthcare. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Genesis Healthcare. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.5%, whose default value for GEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Genesis Healthcare, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Genesis Healthcare.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Genesis Healthcare.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Genesis Healthcare. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GEN are equal to 71.8%.

Life of production assets of 18 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Genesis Healthcare operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GEN is equal to 3.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-490 million for Genesis Healthcare - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 150.422 million for Genesis Healthcare is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Genesis Healthcare at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Genesis Healthcare reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 11:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 09:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ $53.6M settlement: Genesis Healthcare reaches deal to resolve federal lawsuits   [Jun-18-17 05:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Genesis HealthCare to pay $53.6M to settle US probes   [Jun-16-17 04:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Genesis Healthcare Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-09-17 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 17th   [Mar-17-17 08:57AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Companies to Watch - Aug. 15, 2016   [Aug-15-16 02:38PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of GEN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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