Intrinsic value of GEO Group - GEO

Previous Close

$24.86

  Intrinsic Value

$10.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-57%

Previous close

$24.86

 
Intrinsic value

$10.67

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GEO.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GEO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,309
  2,362
  2,422
  2,491
  2,566
  2,649
  2,739
  2,837
  2,942
  3,055
  3,176
  3,305
  3,442
  3,588
  3,743
  3,907
  4,080
  4,264
  4,458
  4,663
  4,879
  5,107
  5,347
  5,600
  5,867
  6,147
  6,443
  6,754
  7,081
  7,425
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,025
  2,069
  2,120
  2,176
  2,239
  2,308
  2,383
  2,465
  2,552
  2,646
  2,643
  2,750
  2,865
  2,986
  3,115
  3,251
  3,396
  3,549
  3,710
  3,881
  4,061
  4,250
  4,450
  4,661
  4,883
  5,116
  5,362
  5,621
  5,893
  6,180
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,025
  2,069
  2,120
  2,176
  2,239
  2,308
  2,383
  2,465
  2,552
  2,646
  2,643
  2,750
  2,865
  2,986
  3,115
  3,251
  3,396
  3,549
  3,710
  3,881
  4,061
  4,250
  4,450
  4,661
  4,883
  5,116
  5,362
  5,621
  5,893
  6,180
Operating income, $m
  284
  293
  303
  314
  327
  341
  356
  372
  390
  409
  533
  554
  577
  602
  628
  655
  684
  715
  748
  782
  818
  856
  897
  939
  984
  1,031
  1,080
  1,133
  1,187
  1,245
EBITDA, $m
  494
  505
  518
  533
  549
  567
  586
  607
  630
  654
  680
  707
  736
  768
  801
  836
  873
  912
  954
  998
  1,044
  1,093
  1,144
  1,198
  1,255
  1,315
  1,379
  1,445
  1,515
  1,589
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  152
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  235
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  326
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  459
  482
  507
  533
Earnings before tax, $m
  131
  137
  143
  149
  157
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  318
  330
  343
  356
  371
  386
  402
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
  520
  543
  568
  594
  621
  650
  680
  712
Tax expense, $m
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  192
Net income, $m
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  232
  241
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  379
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  497
  520

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,315
  4,415
  4,528
  4,655
  4,797
  4,951
  5,120
  5,303
  5,499
  5,710
  5,936
  6,177
  6,433
  6,706
  6,995
  7,302
  7,626
  7,970
  8,332
  8,715
  9,119
  9,545
  9,994
  10,467
  10,965
  11,490
  12,042
  12,623
  13,235
  13,878
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,315
  4,415
  4,528
  4,655
  4,797
  4,951
  5,120
  5,303
  5,499
  5,710
  5,936
  6,177
  6,433
  6,706
  6,995
  7,302
  7,626
  7,970
  8,332
  8,715
  9,119
  9,545
  9,994
  10,467
  10,965
  11,490
  12,042
  12,623
  13,235
  13,878
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
Average production assets, $m
  2,500
  2,558
  2,624
  2,697
  2,779
  2,869
  2,967
  3,072
  3,186
  3,309
  3,439
  3,579
  3,728
  3,886
  4,053
  4,231
  4,419
  4,618
  4,828
  5,050
  5,284
  5,530
  5,791
  6,065
  6,353
  6,657
  6,977
  7,314
  7,668
  8,041
Working capital, $m
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  133
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
Total debt, $m
  2,644
  2,715
  2,796
  2,887
  2,989
  3,099
  3,220
  3,351
  3,492
  3,643
  3,804
  3,977
  4,161
  4,356
  4,563
  4,782
  5,015
  5,260
  5,520
  5,794
  6,083
  6,388
  6,710
  7,049
  7,405
  7,781
  8,177
  8,593
  9,030
  9,491
Total liabilities, $m
  3,090
  3,161
  3,242
  3,333
  3,434
  3,545
  3,666
  3,797
  3,937
  4,089
  4,250
  4,423
  4,606
  4,802
  5,009
  5,228
  5,461
  5,706
  5,966
  6,240
  6,529
  6,834
  7,156
  7,494
  7,851
  8,227
  8,622
  9,038
  9,476
  9,937
Total equity, $m
  1,226
  1,254
  1,286
  1,322
  1,362
  1,406
  1,454
  1,506
  1,562
  1,622
  1,686
  1,754
  1,827
  1,905
  1,987
  2,074
  2,166
  2,263
  2,366
  2,475
  2,590
  2,711
  2,838
  2,973
  3,114
  3,263
  3,420
  3,585
  3,759
  3,941
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,316
  4,415
  4,528
  4,655
  4,796
  4,951
  5,120
  5,303
  5,499
  5,711
  5,936
  6,177
  6,433
  6,707
  6,996
  7,302
  7,627
  7,969
  8,332
  8,715
  9,119
  9,545
  9,994
  10,467
  10,965
  11,490
  12,042
  12,623
  13,235
  13,878
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.160
  2.170
  2.170
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.320
  2.320
  2.330
  2.340
  2.350
  2.360
  2.360
  2.370
  2.380
  2.380
  2.390
  2.400
  2.400
  2.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  232
  241
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  379
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  497
  520
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  210
  213
  216
  219
  222
  226
  230
  235
  240
  245
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
  344
Funds from operations, $m
  306
  312
  320
  328
  336
  346
  357
  368
  380
  393
  379
  394
  409
  426
  444
  463
  482
  503
  525
  549
  573
  599
  627
  656
  686
  718
  752
  787
  824
  864
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  305
  311
  317
  325
  334
  343
  353
  364
  376
  389
  374
  389
  404
  421
  438
  456
  476
  497
  518
  541
  565
  591
  618
  646
  676
  708
  741
  776
  812
  851
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -105
  -107
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -127
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -313
  -328
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -337
  -354
  -373
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -317
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -473
  -496
  -521
  -548
  -576
  -605
  -635
  -667
  -701
Free cash flow, $m
  151
  146
  142
  139
  137
  135
  133
  132
  131
  130
  102
  102
  103
  103
  104
  106
  107
  109
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  125
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  62
  71
  81
  91
  101
  111
  121
  131
  141
  151
  162
  172
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  322
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
  438
  460
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  62
  71
  81
  91
  101
  111
  121
  131
  141
  151
  162
  172
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  322
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
  438
  460
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  213
  217
  224
  230
  238
  245
  254
  262
  272
  281
  264
  275
  286
  299
  311
  325
  339
  355
  370
  387
  405
  423
  443
  464
  485
  508
  532
  557
  583
  611
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  186
  189
  191
  194
  198
  201
  206
  211
  216
  221
  200
  206
  214
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  359
  375
  392
  410
  428
Discount rate, %
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  170
  157
  142
  129
  115
  102
  90
  78
  67
  57
  42
  34
  28
  23
  18
  14
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The GEO Group, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company specializes in the ownership, leasing and management of correctional, detention and re-entry facilities and the provision of community-based services and youth services in the United States, Australia, South Africa and the United Kingdom. The Company operates in four segments: U.S. Corrections & Detention, GEO Care, International Services, and Facility Construction & Design. The Company owns, leases and operates a range of correctional and detention facilities including maximum, medium and minimum security prisons, immigration detention centers, minimum security detention centers, as well as community based reentry facilities, and offers delivery of offender rehabilitation services under its GEO Continuum of Care platform. The GEO Continuum of Care program integrates in-prison programs, which include cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services. _tck('aft');

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GEO Group (GEO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.6
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 9.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 152.6%
Total Debt to Equity 154.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
EBITDA Margin 11.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 10.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate -30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.9%
Payout Ratio 127.8%

GEO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GEO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2263.42 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GEO Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of GEO Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GEO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for GEO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GEO Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GEO Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GEO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GEO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for GEO Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GEO Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GEO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GEO are equal to 108.3%.

Life of production assets of 23.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GEO Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GEO is equal to 3.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1199.241 million for GEO Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 121.781 million for GEO Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GEO Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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