Intrinsic value of Goldcorp - GG

Previous Close

$9.27

  Intrinsic Value

$4.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

Previous close

$9.27

 
Intrinsic value

$4.08

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,491
  3,572
  3,664
  3,767
  3,881
  4,006
  4,143
  4,290
  4,449
  4,620
  4,803
  4,998
  5,205
  5,426
  5,660
  5,908
  6,170
  6,448
  6,741
  7,051
  7,378
  7,723
  8,086
  8,469
  8,872
  9,297
  9,743
  10,213
  10,708
  11,228
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,296
  3,372
  3,458
  3,556
  3,663
  3,782
  3,911
  4,050
  4,200
  4,361
  4,534
  4,718
  4,914
  5,122
  5,343
  5,577
  5,825
  6,087
  6,364
  6,656
  6,965
  7,290
  7,633
  7,995
  8,375
  8,776
  9,198
  9,642
  10,108
  10,600
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,296
  3,372
  3,458
  3,556
  3,663
  3,782
  3,911
  4,050
  4,200
  4,361
  4,534
  4,718
  4,914
  5,122
  5,343
  5,577
  5,825
  6,087
  6,364
  6,656
  6,965
  7,290
  7,633
  7,995
  8,375
  8,776
  9,198
  9,642
  10,108
  10,600
Operating income, $m
  196
  200
  205
  211
  217
  224
  232
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  304
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
EBITDA, $m
  1,206
  1,234
  1,266
  1,301
  1,341
  1,384
  1,431
  1,482
  1,537
  1,596
  1,659
  1,726
  1,798
  1,874
  1,955
  2,041
  2,131
  2,227
  2,329
  2,436
  2,549
  2,668
  2,793
  2,925
  3,065
  3,211
  3,366
  3,528
  3,699
  3,879
Interest expense (income), $m
  25
  147
  155
  164
  175
  188
  201
  216
  232
  249
  268
  288
  310
  333
  358
  384
  411
  441
  472
  505
  539
  576
  615
  655
  698
  744
  791
  841
  894
  950
  1,008
Earnings before tax, $m
  48
  45
  41
  36
  30
  23
  16
  8
  0
  -10
  -19
  -30
  -42
  -54
  -67
  -81
  -95
  -111
  -127
  -144
  -163
  -182
  -203
  -224
  -247
  -271
  -296
  -322
  -350
  -380
Tax expense, $m
  13
  12
  11
  10
  8
  6
  4
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  35
  33
  30
  26
  22
  17
  12
  6
  0
  -10
  -19
  -30
  -42
  -54
  -67
  -81
  -95
  -111
  -127
  -144
  -163
  -182
  -203
  -224
  -247
  -271
  -296
  -322
  -350
  -380

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  22,098
  22,606
  23,187
  23,839
  24,562
  25,355
  26,219
  27,153
  28,160
  29,241
  30,397
  31,631
  32,944
  34,340
  35,822
  37,392
  39,053
  40,811
  42,667
  44,628
  46,696
  48,878
  51,177
  53,600
  56,152
  58,839
  61,667
  64,642
  67,773
  71,066
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  22,098
  22,606
  23,187
  23,839
  24,562
  25,355
  26,219
  27,153
  28,160
  29,241
  30,397
  31,631
  32,944
  34,340
  35,822
  37,392
  39,053
  40,811
  42,667
  44,628
  46,696
  48,878
  51,177
  53,600
  56,152
  58,839
  61,667
  64,642
  67,773
  71,066
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
Average production assets, $m
  17,785
  18,195
  18,662
  19,187
  19,769
  20,407
  21,102
  21,854
  22,665
  23,535
  24,465
  25,458
  26,515
  27,639
  28,831
  30,095
  31,432
  32,846
  34,341
  35,919
  37,584
  39,340
  41,190
  43,140
  45,194
  47,356
  49,632
  52,027
  54,547
  57,197
Working capital, $m
  157
  161
  165
  169
  175
  180
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  460
  482
  505
Total debt, $m
  2,870
  3,046
  3,247
  3,472
  3,722
  3,997
  4,296
  4,619
  4,967
  5,341
  5,741
  6,168
  6,623
  7,106
  7,618
  8,161
  8,736
  9,344
  9,987
  10,665
  11,381
  12,136
  12,931
  13,770
  14,653
  15,582
  16,561
  17,590
  18,673
  19,813
Total liabilities, $m
  7,646
  7,822
  8,023
  8,248
  8,498
  8,773
  9,072
  9,395
  9,743
  10,117
  10,517
  10,944
  11,399
  11,882
  12,394
  12,937
  13,512
  14,120
  14,763
  15,441
  16,157
  16,912
  17,707
  18,546
  19,429
  20,358
  21,337
  22,366
  23,449
  24,589
Total equity, $m
  14,452
  14,784
  15,164
  15,591
  16,064
  16,582
  17,147
  17,758
  18,417
  19,124
  19,880
  20,687
  21,546
  22,459
  23,427
  24,454
  25,541
  26,690
  27,904
  29,187
  30,539
  31,966
  33,470
  35,055
  36,723
  38,480
  40,330
  42,276
  44,324
  46,477
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  22,098
  22,606
  23,187
  23,839
  24,562
  25,355
  26,219
  27,153
  28,160
  29,241
  30,397
  31,631
  32,945
  34,341
  35,821
  37,391
  39,053
  40,810
  42,667
  44,628
  46,696
  48,878
  51,177
  53,601
  56,152
  58,838
  61,667
  64,642
  67,773
  71,066
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  33
  30
  26
  22
  17
  12
  6
  0
  -10
  -19
  -30
  -42
  -54
  -67
  -81
  -95
  -111
  -127
  -144
  -163
  -182
  -203
  -224
  -247
  -271
  -296
  -322
  -350
  -380
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,011
  1,034
  1,060
  1,090
  1,123
  1,159
  1,199
  1,242
  1,288
  1,337
  1,390
  1,446
  1,507
  1,570
  1,638
  1,710
  1,786
  1,866
  1,951
  2,041
  2,135
  2,235
  2,340
  2,451
  2,568
  2,691
  2,820
  2,956
  3,099
  3,250
Funds from operations, $m
  1,046
  1,067
  1,090
  1,116
  1,145
  1,177
  1,211
  1,248
  1,288
  1,328
  1,371
  1,416
  1,465
  1,517
  1,571
  1,629
  1,691
  1,756
  1,824
  1,896
  1,973
  2,053
  2,138
  2,227
  2,321
  2,420
  2,524
  2,634
  2,749
  2,870
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  1,043
  1,063
  1,086
  1,112
  1,140
  1,171
  1,205
  1,241
  1,280
  1,320
  1,362
  1,408
  1,456
  1,507
  1,561
  1,618
  1,679
  1,743
  1,811
  1,882
  1,958
  2,038
  2,121
  2,210
  2,303
  2,401
  2,504
  2,613
  2,727
  2,847
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -991
  -1,011
  -1,034
  -1,060
  -1,090
  -1,123
  -1,159
  -1,199
  -1,242
  -1,288
  -1,337
  -1,390
  -1,446
  -1,507
  -1,570
  -1,638
  -1,710
  -1,786
  -1,866
  -1,951
  -2,041
  -2,135
  -2,235
  -2,340
  -2,451
  -2,568
  -2,691
  -2,820
  -2,956
  -3,099
New CAPEX, $m
  -347
  -409
  -468
  -525
  -582
  -638
  -695
  -752
  -810
  -870
  -931
  -993
  -1,057
  -1,124
  -1,192
  -1,263
  -1,337
  -1,414
  -1,494
  -1,578
  -1,665
  -1,756
  -1,851
  -1,950
  -2,054
  -2,162
  -2,276
  -2,395
  -2,520
  -2,650
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,338
  -1,420
  -1,502
  -1,585
  -1,672
  -1,761
  -1,854
  -1,951
  -2,052
  -2,158
  -2,268
  -2,383
  -2,503
  -2,631
  -2,762
  -2,901
  -3,047
  -3,200
  -3,360
  -3,529
  -3,706
  -3,891
  -4,086
  -4,290
  -4,505
  -4,730
  -4,967
  -5,215
  -5,476
  -5,749
Free cash flow, $m
  -296
  -357
  -415
  -474
  -532
  -591
  -650
  -710
  -772
  -838
  -905
  -975
  -1,048
  -1,123
  -1,202
  -1,283
  -1,368
  -1,457
  -1,550
  -1,647
  -1,748
  -1,854
  -1,964
  -2,080
  -2,202
  -2,329
  -2,463
  -2,602
  -2,749
  -2,903
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  145
  176
  201
  226
  250
  274
  299
  323
  348
  374
  400
  427
  454
  483
  513
  543
  575
  608
  642
  678
  716
  755
  796
  838
  883
  930
  978
  1,030
  1,083
  1,139
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  233
  300
  350
  401
  451
  502
  553
  605
  659
  716
  776
  837
  901
  967
  1,036
  1,107
  1,182
  1,260
  1,341
  1,427
  1,516
  1,609
  1,706
  1,809
  1,916
  2,028
  2,145
  2,268
  2,398
  2,533
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  378
  476
  551
  627
  701
  776
  852
  928
  1,007
  1,090
  1,176
  1,264
  1,355
  1,450
  1,549
  1,650
  1,757
  1,868
  1,983
  2,105
  2,232
  2,364
  2,502
  2,647
  2,799
  2,958
  3,123
  3,298
  3,481
  3,672
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  82
  119
  136
  152
  169
  185
  202
  219
  235
  253
  270
  288
  307
  326
  346
  367
  388
  411
  434
  458
  484
  510
  538
  566
  597
  628
  661
  696
  732
  770
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -268
  -332
  -380
  -427
  -473
  -519
  -565
  -611
  -659
  -716
  -776
  -837
  -901
  -967
  -1,036
  -1,107
  -1,182
  -1,260
  -1,341
  -1,427
  -1,516
  -1,609
  -1,706
  -1,809
  -1,916
  -2,028
  -2,145
  -2,268
  -2,398
  -2,533
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -186
  -214
  -244
  -274
  -304
  -333
  -363
  -393
  -423
  -464
  -505
  -549
  -594
  -640
  -689
  -740
  -793
  -849
  -907
  -968
  -1,032
  -1,099
  -1,169
  -1,242
  -1,319
  -1,400
  -1,484
  -1,573
  -1,666
  -1,763
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -178
  -196
  -212
  -226
  -235
  -242
  -245
  -246
  -243
  -243
  -240
  -234
  -226
  -215
  -202
  -188
  -173
  -156
  -140
  -123
  -107
  -91
  -77
  -63
  -51
  -41
  -32
  -24
  -18
  -13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.7
  94.9
  91.8
  88.5
  84.9
  81.3
  77.6
  73.9
  70.2
  66.5
  62.8
  59.3
  55.8
  52.4
  49.2
  46.1
  43.1
  40.3
  37.6
  35.0
  32.6
  30.3
  28.2
  26.2
  24.3
  22.5
  20.8
  19.3
  17.8
  16.5

Goldcorp Inc. is a gold producer engaged in the operation, exploration, development and acquisition of precious metal properties in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. The Company is engaged in the sale of gold, silver, lead, zinc and copper. The Company's segments include Red Lake Gold Mines Ontario Partnership (Red Lake), Goldcorp Canada Ltd./Goldcorp Inc. (Porcupine), Musselwhite, Les Mines Opinaca Ltee (Eleonore), Minera Penasquito S.A. de C.V. and Camino Rojo S.A. de C.V. (Penasquito), Desarrollos Mineros San Luis S.A. de C.V. (Los Filos), Montana Exploradora de Guatemala S.A. (Marlin), Oroplata S.A. (Cerro Negro), Corredor SpA (Project Corridor), Minera Alumbrera Limited (Alumbrera), El Morro and Pueblo Viejo Dominicana Corporation (Pueblo Viejo). The Company's principal product is gold dore with the refined gold bullion sold primarily in the London spot market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Goldcorp (GG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.9
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 95.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -43%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.7
LT Debt to Equity 20.6%
Total Debt to Equity 20.6%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Return On Equity 1.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
EBITDA Margin 36.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.7%
Operating Margin 10.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.1%
Effective Tax Rate 27%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Payout Ratio 59.9%

GG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3423 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Goldcorp. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Goldcorp. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Goldcorp, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Goldcorp.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Goldcorp.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Goldcorp. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GG are equal to 509.4%.

Life of production assets of 17.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Goldcorp operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GG is equal to 4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $14184 million for Goldcorp - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 869 million for Goldcorp is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Goldcorp at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.1 billion.

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