Intrinsic value of Graham Holdings - GHC

Previous Close

$662.61

  Intrinsic Value

$924.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+39%

Previous close

$662.61

 
Intrinsic value

$924.01

 
Up/down potential

+39%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,644
  2,704
  2,774
  2,852
  2,938
  3,033
  3,137
  3,248
  3,369
  3,498
  3,637
  3,784
  3,941
  4,108
  4,286
  4,473
  4,672
  4,882
  5,105
  5,339
  5,587
  5,848
  6,123
  6,412
  6,718
  7,039
  7,377
  7,734
  8,108
  8,502
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,318
  2,367
  2,424
  2,488
  2,558
  2,635
  2,720
  2,811
  2,909
  3,014
  2,963
  3,083
  3,211
  3,347
  3,492
  3,645
  3,807
  3,978
  4,159
  4,350
  4,552
  4,764
  4,988
  5,224
  5,473
  5,735
  6,011
  6,301
  6,606
  6,927
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,318
  2,367
  2,424
  2,488
  2,558
  2,635
  2,720
  2,811
  2,909
  3,014
  2,963
  3,083
  3,211
  3,347
  3,492
  3,645
  3,807
  3,978
  4,159
  4,350
  4,552
  4,764
  4,988
  5,224
  5,473
  5,735
  6,011
  6,301
  6,606
  6,927
Operating income, $m
  326
  337
  350
  364
  380
  398
  417
  438
  460
  484
  674
  701
  730
  761
  794
  829
  866
  905
  946
  989
  1,035
  1,083
  1,134
  1,188
  1,245
  1,304
  1,367
  1,433
  1,502
  1,575
EBITDA, $m
  556
  569
  583
  600
  618
  638
  660
  683
  709
  736
  765
  796
  829
  864
  901
  941
  983
  1,027
  1,074
  1,123
  1,175
  1,230
  1,288
  1,349
  1,413
  1,480
  1,552
  1,626
  1,705
  1,788
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  115
  125
  135
  146
  157
  169
  181
  195
  209
  223
  239
  255
  273
  291
  310
  330
Earnings before tax, $m
  292
  300
  310
  321
  332
  345
  359
  375
  391
  408
  591
  611
  632
  655
  679
  704
  731
  759
  789
  820
  854
  889
  926
  965
  1,006
  1,049
  1,094
  1,142
  1,192
  1,245
Tax expense, $m
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  260
  272
  283
  295
  308
  322
  336
Net income, $m
  213
  219
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  285
  298
  432
  446
  462
  478
  495
  514
  533
  554
  576
  599
  623
  649
  676
  704
  734
  766
  799
  834
  870
  909

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,941
  5,055
  5,185
  5,331
  5,493
  5,670
  5,863
  6,072
  6,297
  6,539
  6,797
  7,073
  7,367
  7,679
  8,010
  8,361
  8,733
  9,126
  9,541
  9,980
  10,442
  10,930
  11,444
  11,986
  12,557
  13,157
  13,790
  14,455
  15,155
  15,892
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,941
  5,055
  5,185
  5,331
  5,493
  5,670
  5,863
  6,072
  6,297
  6,539
  6,797
  7,073
  7,367
  7,679
  8,010
  8,361
  8,733
  9,126
  9,541
  9,980
  10,442
  10,930
  11,444
  11,986
  12,557
  13,157
  13,790
  14,455
  15,155
  15,892
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
Average production assets, $m
  999
  1,022
  1,049
  1,078
  1,111
  1,147
  1,186
  1,228
  1,273
  1,322
  1,375
  1,430
  1,490
  1,553
  1,620
  1,691
  1,766
  1,846
  1,930
  2,018
  2,112
  2,210
  2,314
  2,424
  2,539
  2,661
  2,789
  2,923
  3,065
  3,214
Working capital, $m
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -332
Total debt, $m
  533
  580
  634
  695
  762
  836
  916
  1,003
  1,097
  1,197
  1,305
  1,420
  1,542
  1,672
  1,810
  1,956
  2,110
  2,274
  2,446
  2,629
  2,821
  3,024
  3,238
  3,463
  3,701
  3,951
  4,214
  4,491
  4,782
  5,088
Total liabilities, $m
  2,056
  2,103
  2,157
  2,218
  2,285
  2,359
  2,439
  2,526
  2,620
  2,720
  2,828
  2,942
  3,065
  3,195
  3,332
  3,478
  3,633
  3,796
  3,969
  4,151
  4,344
  4,547
  4,761
  4,986
  5,224
  5,473
  5,737
  6,013
  6,305
  6,611
Total equity, $m
  2,886
  2,952
  3,028
  3,113
  3,208
  3,311
  3,424
  3,546
  3,678
  3,819
  3,970
  4,131
  4,302
  4,485
  4,678
  4,883
  5,100
  5,330
  5,572
  5,828
  6,098
  6,383
  6,683
  7,000
  7,333
  7,684
  8,053
  8,442
  8,851
  9,281
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,942
  5,055
  5,185
  5,331
  5,493
  5,670
  5,863
  6,072
  6,298
  6,539
  6,798
  7,073
  7,367
  7,680
  8,010
  8,361
  8,733
  9,126
  9,541
  9,979
  10,442
  10,930
  11,444
  11,986
  12,557
  13,157
  13,790
  14,455
  15,156
  15,892
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  213
  219
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  285
  298
  432
  446
  462
  478
  495
  514
  533
  554
  576
  599
  623
  649
  676
  704
  734
  766
  799
  834
  870
  909
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  230
  232
  233
  235
  238
  240
  243
  245
  248
  252
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
Funds from operations, $m
  443
  451
  460
  469
  480
  492
  505
  519
  534
  550
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  626
  650
  676
  704
  733
  763
  795
  829
  865
  902
  942
  983
  1,027
  1,073
  1,122
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  445
  453
  462
  472
  484
  496
  509
  523
  538
  555
  528
  547
  566
  587
  610
  633
  658
  684
  712
  742
  773
  805
  840
  876
  914
  954
  997
  1,041
  1,088
  1,137
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -352
Free cash flow, $m
  362
  364
  368
  374
  380
  386
  394
  402
  412
  422
  388
  400
  412
  426
  440
  455
  471
  488
  506
  525
  545
  567
  589
  613
  638
  665
  693
  722
  753
  785
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  40
  47
  54
  61
  67
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  163
  173
  182
  192
  203
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  291
  306
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  40
  47
  54
  61
  67
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  163
  173
  182
  192
  203
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  291
  306
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  401
  411
  422
  434
  447
  460
  474
  489
  505
  522
  496
  514
  534
  555
  578
  601
  626
  652
  679
  708
  738
  770
  803
  839
  876
  915
  956
  999
  1,044
  1,092
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -66
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -369
  -389
  -409
  -430
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  431
  345
  347
  349
  352
  357
  362
  367
  374
  381
  345
  353
  363
  373
  384
  396
  409
  422
  436
  452
  468
  485
  503
  522
  542
  564
  586
  610
  635
  662
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  413
  316
  302
  287
  273
  259
  244
  230
  215
  200
  164
  151
  138
  125
  113
  101
  89
  78
  67
  57
  48
  40
  33
  27
  21
  16
  13
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Graham Holdings Company is a diversified education and media company. The Company's operations include educational services; television broadcasting; online, print and local television (TV) news; social-media advertising services; home health and hospice care, and manufacturing. The Company's segments include Kaplan Higher Education (KHE), Kaplan Test Preparation (KTP), Kaplan International, television broadcasting and other businesses. KHE consists of Kaplan University. Kaplan University provides a range of certificate, diploma and degree programs. Kaplan's KHE division consists primarily of Kaplan University. KTP includes test preparation businesses in pre-college, graduate, health and bar review, as well as businesses in new economy skills training and in career advising. Kaplan International (KI) operates businesses in Europe and the Asia Pacific region. Its other businesses include operations of The Slate Group LLC, which publishes online magazine and additional Websites. _tck('aft');

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Graham Holdings (GHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.7
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 47.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 364
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 13.5%
Total Debt to Equity 13.6%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.2%
EBITDA Margin 17.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 36.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.7%
Payout Ratio 0.4%

GHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2591.846 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Graham Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Graham Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Graham Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Graham Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for Graham Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Graham Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GHC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GHC are equal to 37.8%.

Life of production assets of 15.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Graham Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GHC is equal to -3.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2915.145 million for Graham Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 4.383 million for Graham Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Graham Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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