Intrinsic value of Greenhill - GHL

Previous Close

$17.35

  Intrinsic Value

$45.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+162%

  Value-price divergence*

-57%

Previous close

$17.35

 
Intrinsic value

$45.40

 
Up/down potential

+162%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-57%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GHL.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GHL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.24
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  336
  343
  351
  360
  370
  381
  393
  407
  421
  437
  454
  471
  491
  511
  533
  556
  580
  606
  633
  662
  692
  724
  758
  794
  831
  871
  913
  956
  1,003
  1,051
  1,102
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  129
  132
  134
  138
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  149
  155
  162
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  317
  332
  348
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  170
  174
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  240
  246
  252
Total operating expenses, $m
  244
  252
  258
  263
  270
  277
  284
  292
  300
  309
  318
  306
  316
  327
  338
  350
  361
  374
  387
  401
  416
  431
  447
  463
  480
  497
  516
  536
  557
  578
  600
Operating income, $m
  91
  91
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  136
  165
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  232
  246
  261
  277
  294
  312
  331
  351
  373
  396
  420
  446
  473
  502
EBITDA, $m
  94
  112
  114
  117
  121
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  175
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  246
  261
  277
  294
  313
  332
  352
  374
  397
  421
  447
  474
  503
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  87
  90
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  123
  131
  160
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  224
  237
  252
  267
  284
  301
  320
  340
  360
  383
  406
  431
  457
  485
Tax expense, $m
  27
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  131
Net income, $m
  61
  64
  65
  68
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  220
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  315
  334
  354

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  457
  370
  379
  388
  399
  411
  425
  439
  455
  472
  490
  509
  530
  552
  575
  600
  626
  654
  684
  715
  747
  782
  819
  857
  898
  940
  985
  1,033
  1,083
  1,135
  1,190
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  363
  370
  379
  388
  399
  411
  425
  439
  455
  472
  490
  509
  530
  552
  575
  600
  626
  654
  684
  715
  747
  782
  819
  857
  898
  940
  985
  1,033
  1,083
  1,135
  1,190
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.926
  0.927
  0.926
  0.928
  0.927
  0.927
  0.925
  0.927
  0.925
  0.926
  0.927
  0.925
  0.926
  0.926
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.925
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.925
  0.927
  0.927
  0.925
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Working capital, $m
  0
  -96
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -162
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -309
Total debt, $m
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  178
  189
  201
  214
  227
  242
  257
  272
  289
  307
  325
  345
  365
  387
  410
  434
  459
Total liabilities, $m
  166
  169
  173
  177
  182
  188
  194
  201
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  327
  342
  357
  374
  392
  410
  430
  450
  472
  495
  519
  544
Total equity, $m
  291
  201
  206
  211
  217
  223
  231
  238
  247
  256
  266
  276
  288
  300
  312
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  465
  487
  511
  535
  561
  588
  616
  646
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  457
  370
  379
  388
  399
  411
  425
  439
  455
  472
  490
  509
  530
  552
  575
  600
  626
  654
  683
  715
  748
  782
  819
  857
  897
  941
  985
  1,033
  1,083
  1,135
  1,190
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.278
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  64
  65
  68
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  220
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  315
  334
  354
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  136
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  117
  117
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  316
  335
  355
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  124
  87
  89
  91
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  116
  121
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  171
  181
  193
  204
  217
  230
  244
  259
  275
  292
  310
  328
  348
  369
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Free cash flow, $m
  123
  86
  88
  91
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  170
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  243
  257
  273
  290
  308
  326
  346
  367
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  90
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  107
  111
  117
  122
  129
  130
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  183
  194
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  276
  293
  310
  329
  349
  370
  392
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  179
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  254
  269
  286
  304
  322
  342
  362
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  172
  80
  78
  76
  74
  72
  70
  68
  65
  62
  57
  54
  51
  47
  44
  40
  36
  33
  29
  25
  22
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Greenhill & Co., Inc. is an investment bank. The Company provides financial and strategic advice on domestic and cross-border mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, restructurings, financings, capital raising and other transactions to a diverse client base, including corporations, partnerships, institutions and governments globally. The Company also provides advice in connection with defense preparedness, activist response strategies and other mission critical situations. The Company acts for clients located across the world from its offices located in the United States, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The Company's subsidiaries provide advisory services in various jurisdictions. Its operating entities include Greenhill & Co., LLC (G&Co), Greenhill & Co. International LLP (GCI), Greenhill & Co. Europe LLP (GCE), Greenhill & Co. Australia Pty Limited (Greenhill Australia) and Greenhill Cogent, LP (GC LP).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Greenhill (GHL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.3
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 27.8%
Total Debt to Equity 27.8%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 16.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Equity 21.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 28%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 27.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Net Profit Margin 18.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Effective Tax Rate 30.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Payout Ratio 101.6%

GHL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GHL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $336 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Greenhill. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Greenhill. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GHL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GHL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Greenhill, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Greenhill.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GHL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $120 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GHL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Greenhill.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Greenhill. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GHL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GHL are equal to 2.7%.

Life of production assets of 72.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Greenhill operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GHL is equal to -28%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $291 million for Greenhill - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.638 million for Greenhill is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Greenhill at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Greenhill reports 3Q loss   [Oct-18-17 04:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ 2 Picks in Financial Advisors Ahead of Q3 Earnings   [Oct-10-17 11:40AM  Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Deal Boutique Greenhill Lands a Lifeline   [01:25AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Deal Boutique Greenhill Lands a Lifeline   [Sep-25-17 10:37PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Baring Private Equity Restarts Sale of SAI Assurance   [Sep-13-17 03:25AM  Bloomberg]
▶ Hiroshi Yoshioka Joins Greenhill as Senior Advisor   [Sep-05-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Industry Data   [Aug-29-17 10:22AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Greenhill's Path to a Turnaround   [Aug-11-17 07:30AM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Boutique doldrums   [Aug-08-17 12:10AM  Financial Times]
▶ [$$] Greenhill: twice bitten   [Aug-07-17 12:55PM  Financial Times]
▶ Greenhill posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 10:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Secondary Market Set Price, Volume Records in the First Half   [Jul-21-17 05:53PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Juan BĂ©jar Joins Greenhill as Senior Advisor   [Jul-10-17 07:01AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 28th   [Jun-28-17 10:36AM  Zacks]
▶ MOVES- Greenhill, Carver Bancorp, Miton Group   [Jun-22-17 04:09PM  Reuters]
▶ John D. Liu Appointed to Greenhill Board of Directors   [Jun-08-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Greenhill reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for March 10th   [Mar-10-17 09:01AM  Zacks]
▶ Trump Gives Dealmakers All-Clear Signal for M&A, Bok Says   [Jan-27-17 09:22AM  at Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] M&A Boutiques in Risky Place Under Trump   [12:07AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] M&A Boutiques in Risky Place Under Trump   [Jan-10-17 01:09PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 3 Stocks You Can Buy With Dividends Yielding More Than 6%   [Dec-13-16 01:34PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Greenhill & Co., Inc. (GHL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-05-16 05:37AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Instinet Still Thinks Investment Bankers Can Log A Strong Q4   [Dec-02-16 03:27PM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of GHL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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