Intrinsic value of Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. - GIFI

Previous Close

$6.19

  Intrinsic Value

$1,280

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$6.19

 
Intrinsic value

$1,280

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GIFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  354
  546
  817
  1,185
  1,672
  2,299
  3,086
  4,053
  5,215
  6,586
  8,179
  9,999
  12,053
  14,340
  16,862
  19,614
  22,594
  25,796
  29,215
  32,847
  36,686
  40,728
  44,970
  49,410
  54,049
  58,885
  63,922
  69,162
  74,611
  80,275
Variable operating expenses, $m
  95
  142
  208
  298
  417
  571
  764
  1,000
  1,285
  1,620
  2,002
  2,448
  2,951
  3,511
  4,128
  4,802
  5,531
  6,315
  7,152
  8,041
  8,981
  9,970
  11,009
  12,096
  13,231
  14,415
  15,648
  16,931
  18,265
  19,651
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  200
  205
  209
  214
  219
  223
  228
  233
  238
  244
  249
  254
  260
  266
  272
  278
  284
  290
  296
  303
  310
  316
  323
  330
  338
  345
  353
  360
  368
  377
Total operating expenses, $m
  295
  347
  417
  512
  636
  794
  992
  1,233
  1,523
  1,864
  2,251
  2,702
  3,211
  3,777
  4,400
  5,080
  5,815
  6,605
  7,448
  8,344
  9,291
  10,286
  11,332
  12,426
  13,569
  14,760
  16,001
  17,291
  18,633
  20,028
Operating income, $m
  59
  200
  400
  673
  1,037
  1,505
  2,095
  2,819
  3,692
  4,722
  5,928
  7,297
  8,842
  10,564
  12,462
  14,535
  16,779
  19,191
  21,767
  24,503
  27,395
  30,441
  33,638
  36,984
  40,480
  44,125
  47,921
  51,871
  55,978
  60,247
EBITDA, $m
  83
  234
  446
  737
  1,123
  1,622
  2,248
  3,018
  3,946
  5,041
  6,313
  7,769
  9,411
  11,240
  13,258
  15,460
  17,845
  20,408
  23,145
  26,052
  29,125
  32,362
  35,759
  39,315
  43,029
  46,902
  50,936
  55,133
  59,497
  64,033
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  5
  8
  13
  20
  29
  40
  53
  70
  89
  111
  137
  165
  197
  232
  271
  312
  357
  405
  455
  509
  565
  625
  687
  751
  819
  889
  962
  1,038
Earnings before tax, $m
  59
  198
  395
  665
  1,023
  1,485
  2,066
  2,779
  3,638
  4,653
  5,839
  7,186
  8,706
  10,399
  12,265
  14,303
  16,508
  18,879
  21,410
  24,098
  26,940
  29,932
  33,072
  36,360
  39,793
  43,374
  47,102
  50,982
  55,016
  59,208
Tax expense, $m
  16
  53
  107
  180
  276
  401
  558
  750
  982
  1,256
  1,576
  1,940
  2,351
  2,808
  3,312
  3,862
  4,457
  5,097
  5,781
  6,507
  7,274
  8,082
  8,930
  9,817
  10,744
  11,711
  12,718
  13,765
  14,854
  15,986
Net income, $m
  43
  145
  289
  486
  747
  1,084
  1,508
  2,029
  2,656
  3,396
  4,262
  5,246
  6,355
  7,591
  8,954
  10,441
  12,051
  13,782
  15,629
  17,592
  19,666
  21,850
  24,143
  26,543
  29,049
  31,663
  34,385
  37,217
  40,161
  43,222

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  376
  581
  869
  1,261
  1,779
  2,446
  3,283
  4,311
  5,547
  7,007
  8,701
  10,638
  12,822
  15,256
  17,938
  20,866
  24,036
  27,443
  31,080
  34,943
  39,027
  43,327
  47,840
  52,564
  57,499
  62,644
  68,002
  73,577
  79,374
  85,399
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  376
  581
  869
  1,261
  1,779
  2,446
  3,283
  4,311
  5,547
  7,007
  8,701
  10,638
  12,822
  15,256
  17,938
  20,866
  24,036
  27,443
  31,080
  34,943
  39,027
  43,327
  47,840
  52,564
  57,499
  62,644
  68,002
  73,577
  79,374
  85,399
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.941
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
Average production assets, $m
  135
  209
  312
  453
  639
  878
  1,179
  1,548
  1,992
  2,516
  3,124
  3,820
  4,604
  5,478
  6,441
  7,493
  8,631
  9,854
  11,160
  12,547
  14,014
  15,558
  17,178
  18,875
  20,647
  22,494
  24,418
  26,420
  28,502
  30,665
Working capital, $m
  40
  61
  92
  133
  187
  258
  346
  454
  584
  738
  916
  1,120
  1,350
  1,606
  1,889
  2,197
  2,531
  2,889
  3,272
  3,679
  4,109
  4,561
  5,037
  5,534
  6,053
  6,595
  7,159
  7,746
  8,356
  8,991
Total debt, $m
  34
  84
  154
  249
  375
  537
  741
  990
  1,291
  1,645
  2,057
  2,528
  3,059
  3,650
  4,302
  5,013
  5,784
  6,611
  7,495
  8,434
  9,426
  10,471
  11,568
  12,716
  13,915
  15,165
  16,467
  17,822
  19,231
  20,695
Total liabilities, $m
  91
  141
  211
  306
  432
  594
  798
  1,048
  1,348
  1,703
  2,114
  2,585
  3,116
  3,707
  4,359
  5,070
  5,841
  6,669
  7,552
  8,491
  9,484
  10,529
  11,625
  12,773
  13,972
  15,222
  16,525
  17,879
  19,288
  20,752
Total equity, $m
  285
  440
  658
  955
  1,347
  1,852
  2,485
  3,264
  4,199
  5,304
  6,587
  8,053
  9,706
  11,549
  13,579
  15,796
  18,195
  20,774
  23,528
  26,452
  29,544
  32,799
  36,215
  39,791
  43,526
  47,421
  51,478
  55,698
  60,086
  64,647
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  376
  581
  869
  1,261
  1,779
  2,446
  3,283
  4,312
  5,547
  7,007
  8,701
  10,638
  12,822
  15,256
  17,938
  20,866
  24,036
  27,443
  31,080
  34,943
  39,028
  43,328
  47,840
  52,564
  57,498
  62,643
  68,003
  73,577
  79,374
  85,399
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.190
  0.230
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  145
  289
  486
  747
  1,084
  1,508
  2,029
  2,656
  3,396
  4,262
  5,246
  6,355
  7,591
  8,954
  10,441
  12,051
  13,782
  15,629
  17,592
  19,666
  21,850
  24,143
  26,543
  29,049
  31,663
  34,385
  37,217
  40,161
  43,222
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  34
  47
  64
  87
  116
  154
  199
  254
  319
  386
  472
  568
  676
  795
  925
  1,066
  1,217
  1,378
  1,549
  1,730
  1,921
  2,121
  2,330
  2,549
  2,777
  3,015
  3,262
  3,519
  3,786
Funds from operations, $m
  68
  178
  335
  549
  834
  1,200
  1,661
  2,228
  2,910
  3,715
  4,648
  5,717
  6,924
  8,267
  9,749
  11,366
  13,117
  14,998
  17,007
  19,141
  21,396
  23,771
  26,264
  28,873
  31,598
  34,440
  37,399
  40,478
  43,680
  47,008
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  22
  30
  41
  55
  70
  88
  108
  130
  154
  178
  204
  230
  256
  282
  308
  334
  359
  383
  407
  430
  453
  475
  497
  519
  542
  564
  587
  610
  634
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  157
  305
  508
  779
  1,130
  1,573
  2,120
  2,780
  3,561
  4,470
  5,513
  6,694
  8,011
  9,466
  11,058
  12,783
  14,640
  16,624
  18,734
  20,966
  23,318
  25,789
  28,375
  31,078
  33,898
  36,835
  39,891
  43,070
  46,374
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -17
  -26
  -39
  -56
  -79
  -108
  -146
  -191
  -246
  -311
  -386
  -472
  -568
  -676
  -795
  -925
  -1,066
  -1,217
  -1,378
  -1,549
  -1,730
  -1,921
  -2,121
  -2,330
  -2,549
  -2,777
  -3,015
  -3,262
  -3,519
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -74
  -103
  -141
  -186
  -239
  -301
  -369
  -444
  -524
  -608
  -695
  -784
  -874
  -963
  -1,051
  -1,138
  -1,223
  -1,306
  -1,387
  -1,466
  -1,544
  -1,621
  -1,696
  -1,772
  -1,848
  -1,924
  -2,002
  -2,081
  -2,163
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -91
  -129
  -180
  -242
  -318
  -409
  -515
  -635
  -770
  -919
  -1,081
  -1,256
  -1,442
  -1,639
  -1,846
  -2,063
  -2,289
  -2,523
  -2,765
  -3,015
  -3,274
  -3,542
  -3,817
  -4,102
  -4,397
  -4,701
  -5,017
  -5,343
  -5,682
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  66
  176
  329
  537
  812
  1,164
  1,605
  2,145
  2,791
  3,551
  4,432
  5,438
  6,569
  7,827
  9,211
  10,720
  12,351
  14,101
  15,969
  17,951
  20,044
  22,247
  24,558
  26,976
  29,502
  32,134
  34,875
  37,727
  40,692
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  34
  50
  70
  95
  126
  162
  203
  250
  300
  355
  412
  471
  531
  591
  652
  712
  770
  828
  884
  939
  992
  1,045
  1,097
  1,148
  1,199
  1,250
  1,302
  1,355
  1,409
  1,464
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  64
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  98
  61
  70
  95
  126
  162
  203
  250
  300
  355
  412
  471
  531
  591
  652
  712
  770
  828
  884
  939
  992
  1,045
  1,097
  1,148
  1,199
  1,250
  1,302
  1,355
  1,409
  1,464
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  90
  127
  246
  424
  663
  974
  1,368
  1,855
  2,445
  3,146
  3,962
  4,903
  5,968
  7,160
  8,479
  9,923
  11,490
  13,179
  14,985
  16,908
  18,943
  21,089
  23,344
  25,706
  28,175
  30,752
  33,436
  36,230
  39,135
  42,156
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -107
  -155
  -218
  -297
  -392
  -505
  -634
  -778
  -936
  -1,105
  -1,282
  -1,466
  -1,654
  -1,842
  -2,030
  -2,217
  -2,400
  -2,579
  -2,754
  -2,924
  -3,091
  -3,255
  -3,416
  -3,576
  -3,735
  -3,895
  -4,056
  -4,220
  -4,388
  -4,561
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  6
  -28
  28
  127
  271
  469
  734
  1,077
  1,509
  2,041
  2,680
  3,437
  4,315
  5,318
  6,448
  7,706
  9,090
  10,600
  12,232
  13,983
  15,852
  17,834
  19,928
  22,130
  24,440
  26,857
  29,380
  32,009
  34,747
  37,595
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  6
  -26
  24
  105
  210
  340
  496
  673
  867
  1,070
  1,273
  1,467
  1,641
  1,785
  1,893
  1,958
  1,978
  1,952
  1,883
  1,777
  1,640
  1,480
  1,306
  1,127
  951
  784
  631
  495
  379
  283
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  66.1
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8
  62.8

Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (Gulf Island) is a holding company. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is a fabricator of steel platforms and other specialized structures for customers in the offshore oil and gas industry. It also performs onshore and offshore construction and fabrication services for customers in the marine industry. Its primary activity is the fabrication of offshore drilling and production platforms and other steel structures for customers in the oil and gas and marine industries, including jackets and deck sections of fixed production platforms, hull, tendon, and/or deck sections of floating production platforms, piles, wellhead protectors. It conducts its operations through its subsidiaries, which include Gulf Island, L.L.C.; Gulf Marine Fabricators, L.P.; Gulf Island Marine Fabricators, L.L.C.; Gulf Island Shipyards, L.L.C.; Dolphin Services, L.L.C.; and Dolphin Steel Sales, L.L.C.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (GIFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.7
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 13
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Return On Total Capital 1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Return On Equity 1.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
EBITDA Margin 10.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
Payout Ratio 25%

GIFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GIFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $221 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GIFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GIFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GIFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 28.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $196 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GIFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GIFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GIFI are equal to 38.2%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GIFI is equal to 11.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $201.1 million for Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.234 million for Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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