Intrinsic value of G-III Apparel Group - GIII

Previous Close

$36.43

  Intrinsic Value

$15.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$36.43

 
Intrinsic value

$15.10

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GIII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of G-III Apparel Group (GIII) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.79
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.55
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
Revenue, $m
  2,386
  2,770
  3,185
  3,631
  4,106
  4,611
  5,144
  5,704
  6,292
  6,907
  7,550
  8,220
  8,917
  9,642
  10,396
  11,180
  11,995
  12,841
  13,721
  14,636
  15,587
  16,577
  17,607
  18,680
  19,797
  20,962
  22,178
  23,446
  24,769
  26,152
  27,596
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,550
  2,928
  3,334
  3,767
  4,226
  4,711
  5,222
  5,757
  6,318
  6,903
  7,486
  8,121
  8,781
  9,468
  10,182
  10,924
  11,695
  12,496
  13,329
  14,195
  15,097
  16,035
  17,012
  18,030
  19,091
  20,198
  21,352
  22,558
  23,817
  25,132
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,293
  2,550
  2,928
  3,334
  3,767
  4,226
  4,711
  5,222
  5,757
  6,318
  6,903
  7,486
  8,121
  8,781
  9,468
  10,182
  10,924
  11,695
  12,496
  13,329
  14,195
  15,097
  16,035
  17,012
  18,030
  19,091
  20,198
  21,352
  22,558
  23,817
  25,132
Operating income, $m
  93
  220
  257
  297
  340
  385
  432
  482
  535
  590
  647
  734
  796
  861
  928
  998
  1,071
  1,146
  1,225
  1,307
  1,392
  1,480
  1,572
  1,668
  1,767
  1,871
  1,980
  2,093
  2,211
  2,335
  2,464
EBITDA, $m
  125
  274
  315
  359
  405
  455
  508
  563
  621
  682
  746
  812
  880
  952
  1,027
  1,104
  1,184
  1,268
  1,355
  1,445
  1,539
  1,637
  1,739
  1,845
  1,955
  2,070
  2,190
  2,315
  2,446
  2,582
  2,725
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  44
  57
  70
  85
  101
  117
  135
  154
  173
  193
  215
  237
  260
  284
  309
  335
  362
  390
  419
  449
  481
  513
  547
  583
  620
  658
  699
  740
  784
  830
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  177
  201
  227
  255
  284
  315
  347
  381
  417
  454
  519
  559
  601
  644
  689
  736
  785
  835
  888
  942
  999
  1,059
  1,120
  1,185
  1,252
  1,322
  1,395
  1,471
  1,550
  1,634
Tax expense, $m
  26
  48
  54
  61
  69
  77
  85
  94
  103
  113
  122
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  212
  226
  240
  254
  270
  286
  302
  320
  338
  357
  377
  397
  419
  441
Net income, $m
  52
  129
  147
  166
  186
  207
  230
  253
  278
  304
  331
  379
  408
  439
  470
  503
  537
  573
  610
  648
  688
  730
  773
  818
  865
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,074
  1,132
  1,193

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,852
  2,057
  2,365
  2,696
  3,049
  3,423
  3,819
  4,235
  4,671
  5,128
  5,605
  6,102
  6,620
  7,158
  7,718
  8,300
  8,905
  9,533
  10,186
  10,865
  11,572
  12,306
  13,071
  13,868
  14,697
  15,562
  16,464
  17,406
  18,388
  19,415
  20,487
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,772
  2,057
  2,365
  2,696
  3,049
  3,423
  3,819
  4,235
  4,671
  5,128
  5,605
  6,102
  6,620
  7,158
  7,718
  8,300
  8,905
  9,533
  10,186
  10,865
  11,572
  12,306
  13,071
  13,868
  14,697
  15,562
  16,464
  17,406
  18,388
  19,415
  20,487
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
Average production assets, $m
  384
  446
  513
  585
  661
  742
  828
  918
  1,013
  1,112
  1,216
  1,323
  1,436
  1,552
  1,674
  1,800
  1,931
  2,067
  2,209
  2,356
  2,509
  2,669
  2,835
  3,007
  3,187
  3,375
  3,571
  3,775
  3,988
  4,210
  4,443
Working capital, $m
  568
  568
  653
  744
  842
  945
  1,054
  1,169
  1,290
  1,416
  1,548
  1,685
  1,828
  1,977
  2,131
  2,292
  2,459
  2,632
  2,813
  3,000
  3,195
  3,398
  3,609
  3,829
  4,058
  4,297
  4,546
  4,806
  5,078
  5,361
  5,657
Total debt, $m
  462
  596
  740
  895
  1,061
  1,236
  1,422
  1,617
  1,822
  2,036
  2,260
  2,493
  2,736
  2,988
  3,251
  3,524
  3,807
  4,102
  4,408
  4,727
  5,058
  5,403
  5,761
  6,135
  6,524
  6,930
  7,353
  7,794
  8,255
  8,736
  9,239
Total liabilities, $m
  831
  965
  1,109
  1,264
  1,430
  1,605
  1,791
  1,986
  2,191
  2,405
  2,629
  2,862
  3,105
  3,357
  3,620
  3,893
  4,176
  4,471
  4,777
  5,096
  5,427
  5,772
  6,130
  6,504
  6,893
  7,299
  7,722
  8,163
  8,624
  9,105
  9,608
Total equity, $m
  1,021
  1,092
  1,256
  1,431
  1,619
  1,818
  2,028
  2,249
  2,480
  2,723
  2,976
  3,240
  3,515
  3,801
  4,098
  4,407
  4,728
  5,062
  5,409
  5,770
  6,145
  6,535
  6,941
  7,364
  7,804
  8,264
  8,743
  9,242
  9,764
  10,309
  10,879
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,852
  2,057
  2,365
  2,695
  3,049
  3,423
  3,819
  4,235
  4,671
  5,128
  5,605
  6,102
  6,620
  7,158
  7,718
  8,300
  8,904
  9,533
  10,186
  10,866
  11,572
  12,307
  13,071
  13,868
  14,697
  15,563
  16,465
  17,405
  18,388
  19,414
  20,487
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.452
  0.550
  0.590
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  129
  147
  166
  186
  207
  230
  253
  278
  304
  331
  379
  408
  439
  470
  503
  537
  573
  610
  648
  688
  730
  773
  818
  865
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,074
  1,132
  1,193
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  78
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  199
  210
  222
  235
  248
  261
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  182
  204
  227
  252
  278
  305
  334
  365
  396
  430
  457
  493
  530
  569
  609
  651
  694
  740
  787
  836
  887
  940
  995
  1,052
  1,112
  1,175
  1,240
  1,308
  1,379
  1,454
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  180
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  103
  119
  136
  154
  174
  196
  219
  244
  270
  298
  320
  350
  381
  414
  448
  484
  521
  559
  599
  641
  684
  728
  775
  823
  873
  926
  980
  1,037
  1,096
  1,158
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -65
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -233
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -526
  -85
  -93
  -102
  -111
  -120
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -168
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -237
  -250
  -264
  -277
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -395
  -414
  -435
  -458
  -481
Free cash flow, $m
  -420
  19
  26
  34
  43
  54
  67
  81
  96
  112
  129
  140
  160
  180
  201
  224
  247
  271
  296
  322
  349
  377
  405
  435
  466
  498
  531
  566
  602
  639
  678
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  374
  134
  145
  155
  166
  176
  185
  195
  205
  214
  224
  233
  243
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  306
  318
  331
  345
  359
  374
  389
  406
  423
  441
  461
  481
  503
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  22
  17
  10
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  368
  156
  162
  165
  168
  176
  185
  195
  205
  214
  224
  233
  243
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  306
  318
  331
  345
  359
  374
  389
  406
  423
  441
  461
  481
  503
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -53
  174
  187
  199
  210
  230
  252
  276
  300
  326
  353
  373
  402
  433
  464
  497
  531
  566
  602
  640
  680
  721
  764
  809
  855
  904
  955
  1,007
  1,063
  1,120
  1,180
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -151
  -164
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -361
  -375
  -390
  -406
  -423
  -441
  -459
  -479
  -500
  -522
  -545
  -569
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  103
  23
  23
  23
  31
  42
  55
  68
  83
  99
  109
  128
  147
  167
  188
  209
  232
  256
  280
  305
  331
  358
  386
  415
  445
  476
  508
  541
  575
  611
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  98
  21
  19
  18
  22
  28
  33
  37
  40
  43
  41
  42
  41
  40
  38
  35
  32
  28
  24
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.7
  97.8
  97.4
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. designs, manufactures and markets a range of apparel products. The Company operates through two segments: wholesale operations and retail operations. Its apparel products include outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, women's suits and women's performance wear, as well as women's handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories and luggage. The Company's owned brands include Donna Karan, DKNY, DKNY Jeans, Vilebrequin, G-III Sports by Carl Banks, Eliza J, Black Rivet and Jessica Howard. It has fashion licenses under the Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Karl Lagerfeld, Kenneth Cole, Cole Haan and Dockers brands. Through its team sports business, it has licenses with the National Football League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball and National Hockey League. It also operates retail stores under the Donna Karan, Wilsons Leather, Bass, G.H. Bass & Co., Vilebrequin and Calvin Klein Performance names.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  G-III Apparel Group (GIII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.2%
Total Debt to Equity 45.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

GIII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GIII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2386 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by G-III Apparel Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of G-III Apparel Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GIII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for GIII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of G-III Apparel Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of G-III Apparel Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GIII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GIII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.5% for G-III Apparel Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for G-III Apparel Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GIII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GIII are equal to 16.1%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in G-III Apparel Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GIII is equal to 20.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1021 million for G-III Apparel Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.878 million for G-III Apparel Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of G-III Apparel Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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Financial statements of GIII
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