Intrinsic value of G-III Apparel Group - GIII

Previous Close

$33.87

  Intrinsic Value

$12.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-64%

Previous close

$33.87

 
Intrinsic value

$12.17

 
Up/down potential

-64%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GIII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.79
  21.70
  20.03
  18.53
  17.17
  15.96
  14.86
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.72
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
Revenue, $m
  2,386
  2,904
  3,485
  4,131
  4,841
  5,613
  6,447
  7,342
  8,295
  9,306
  10,374
  11,497
  12,674
  13,905
  15,191
  16,531
  17,926
  19,377
  20,885
  22,453
  24,082
  25,775
  27,535
  29,364
  31,267
  33,247
  35,308
  37,454
  39,691
  42,022
  44,454
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,671
  3,201
  3,789
  4,435
  5,139
  5,899
  6,713
  7,582
  8,502
  9,475
  10,470
  11,542
  12,664
  13,835
  15,055
  16,325
  17,647
  19,021
  20,448
  21,932
  23,474
  25,077
  26,743
  28,476
  30,279
  32,156
  34,111
  36,148
  38,271
  40,485
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,293
  2,671
  3,201
  3,789
  4,435
  5,139
  5,899
  6,713
  7,582
  8,502
  9,475
  10,470
  11,542
  12,664
  13,835
  15,055
  16,325
  17,647
  19,021
  20,448
  21,932
  23,474
  25,077
  26,743
  28,476
  30,279
  32,156
  34,111
  36,148
  38,271
  40,485
Operating income, $m
  93
  232
  284
  342
  405
  474
  549
  629
  714
  804
  899
  1,026
  1,131
  1,241
  1,356
  1,476
  1,600
  1,730
  1,865
  2,004
  2,150
  2,301
  2,458
  2,621
  2,791
  2,968
  3,152
  3,344
  3,543
  3,752
  3,969
EBITDA, $m
  125
  287
  344
  408
  478
  554
  637
  725
  819
  919
  1,024
  1,135
  1,251
  1,373
  1,500
  1,632
  1,770
  1,913
  2,062
  2,217
  2,378
  2,545
  2,719
  2,900
  3,087
  3,283
  3,486
  3,698
  3,919
  4,149
  4,390
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  44
  61
  80
  102
  125
  151
  178
  208
  239
  273
  308
  345
  384
  425
  467
  512
  558
  606
  656
  708
  762
  818
  876
  936
  999
  1,065
  1,133
  1,204
  1,278
  1,355
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  188
  223
  262
  304
  349
  398
  450
  506
  565
  626
  718
  786
  857
  931
  1,008
  1,089
  1,172
  1,259
  1,349
  1,442
  1,540
  1,641
  1,746
  1,855
  1,969
  2,087
  2,211
  2,340
  2,474
  2,614
Tax expense, $m
  26
  51
  60
  71
  82
  94
  107
  122
  137
  152
  169
  194
  212
  231
  251
  272
  294
  316
  340
  364
  389
  416
  443
  471
  501
  532
  564
  597
  632
  668
  706
Net income, $m
  52
  138
  163
  191
  222
  255
  291
  329
  369
  412
  457
  524
  574
  626
  680
  736
  795
  856
  919
  985
  1,053
  1,124
  1,198
  1,274
  1,354
  1,437
  1,524
  1,614
  1,708
  1,806
  1,908

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,852
  2,156
  2,588
  3,067
  3,594
  4,167
  4,786
  5,450
  6,158
  6,909
  7,701
  8,535
  9,409
  10,323
  11,278
  12,272
  13,308
  14,385
  15,505
  16,669
  17,878
  19,135
  20,442
  21,800
  23,213
  24,682
  26,212
  27,806
  29,466
  31,197
  33,002
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,772
  2,156
  2,588
  3,067
  3,594
  4,167
  4,786
  5,450
  6,158
  6,909
  7,701
  8,535
  9,409
  10,323
  11,278
  12,272
  13,308
  14,385
  15,505
  16,669
  17,878
  19,135
  20,442
  21,800
  23,213
  24,682
  26,212
  27,806
  29,466
  31,197
  33,002
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
Average production assets, $m
  384
  468
  561
  665
  779
  904
  1,038
  1,182
  1,336
  1,498
  1,670
  1,851
  2,040
  2,239
  2,446
  2,661
  2,886
  3,120
  3,363
  3,615
  3,877
  4,150
  4,433
  4,728
  5,034
  5,353
  5,685
  6,030
  6,390
  6,766
  7,157
Working capital, $m
  568
  595
  715
  847
  992
  1,151
  1,322
  1,505
  1,701
  1,908
  2,127
  2,357
  2,598
  2,851
  3,114
  3,389
  3,675
  3,972
  4,281
  4,603
  4,937
  5,284
  5,645
  6,020
  6,410
  6,816
  7,238
  7,678
  8,137
  8,615
  9,113
Total debt, $m
  462
  642
  845
  1,069
  1,316
  1,585
  1,876
  2,187
  2,519
  2,871
  3,243
  3,634
  4,044
  4,473
  4,920
  5,387
  5,872
  6,378
  6,903
  7,449
  8,016
  8,605
  9,218
  9,855
  10,518
  11,207
  11,925
  12,672
  13,451
  14,262
  15,109
Total liabilities, $m
  831
  1,011
  1,214
  1,438
  1,685
  1,954
  2,245
  2,556
  2,888
  3,240
  3,612
  4,003
  4,413
  4,842
  5,289
  5,756
  6,241
  6,747
  7,272
  7,818
  8,385
  8,974
  9,587
  10,224
  10,887
  11,576
  12,294
  13,041
  13,820
  14,631
  15,478
Total equity, $m
  1,021
  1,145
  1,374
  1,629
  1,908
  2,213
  2,542
  2,894
  3,270
  3,669
  4,089
  4,532
  4,996
  5,482
  5,988
  6,517
  7,066
  7,638
  8,233
  8,851
  9,493
  10,161
  10,854
  11,576
  12,326
  13,106
  13,919
  14,765
  15,647
  16,566
  17,524
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,852
  2,156
  2,588
  3,067
  3,593
  4,167
  4,787
  5,450
  6,158
  6,909
  7,701
  8,535
  9,409
  10,324
  11,277
  12,273
  13,307
  14,385
  15,505
  16,669
  17,878
  19,135
  20,441
  21,800
  23,213
  24,682
  26,213
  27,806
  29,467
  31,197
  33,002
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.452
  0.560
  0.610
  0.660
  0.690
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  138
  163
  191
  222
  255
  291
  329
  369
  412
  457
  524
  574
  626
  680
  736
  795
  856
  919
  985
  1,053
  1,124
  1,198
  1,274
  1,354
  1,437
  1,524
  1,614
  1,708
  1,806
  1,908
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  105
  115
  125
  109
  120
  132
  144
  157
  170
  184
  198
  213
  228
  244
  261
  278
  296
  315
  334
  355
  376
  398
  421
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  192
  223
  257
  294
  335
  379
  425
  475
  527
  582
  633
  694
  757
  824
  893
  964
  1,039
  1,117
  1,197
  1,281
  1,368
  1,458
  1,553
  1,650
  1,752
  1,858
  1,969
  2,084
  2,204
  2,329
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  106
  119
  132
  145
  158
  171
  183
  195
  207
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  347
  361
  375
  390
  406
  422
  440
  458
  478
  498
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  86
  104
  125
  149
  177
  208
  242
  279
  320
  364
  403
  453
  505
  560
  618
  678
  742
  807
  876
  947
  1,021
  1,098
  1,177
  1,260
  1,346
  1,436
  1,529
  1,625
  1,726
  1,830
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -88
  -98
  -109
  -120
  -132
  -144
  -157
  -170
  -184
  -198
  -213
  -228
  -244
  -261
  -278
  -296
  -315
  -334
  -355
  -376
  -398
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -84
  -94
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -283
  -295
  -306
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -360
  -375
  -391
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -526
  -107
  -122
  -137
  -153
  -170
  -187
  -205
  -224
  -242
  -260
  -279
  -299
  -318
  -339
  -360
  -382
  -404
  -427
  -450
  -475
  -501
  -527
  -556
  -584
  -615
  -647
  -680
  -715
  -751
  -789
Free cash flow, $m
  -420
  -20
  -17
  -12
  -4
  6
  20
  37
  56
  79
  104
  124
  154
  187
  221
  258
  297
  338
  381
  426
  472
  520
  570
  622
  676
  731
  789
  849
  911
  975
  1,041
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  374
  180
  203
  225
  247
  269
  290
  311
  332
  352
  372
  391
  410
  429
  448
  467
  486
  505
  525
  546
  567
  589
  613
  637
  663
  689
  718
  747
  779
  812
  847
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  66
  66
  64
  58
  50
  38
  24
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  368
  246
  269
  289
  305
  319
  328
  335
  339
  352
  372
  391
  410
  429
  448
  467
  486
  505
  525
  546
  567
  589
  613
  637
  663
  689
  718
  747
  779
  812
  847
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -53
  226
  251
  276
  301
  325
  349
  372
  395
  431
  475
  515
  564
  615
  669
  725
  783
  843
  906
  971
  1,039
  1,110
  1,183
  1,259
  1,338
  1,421
  1,507
  1,596
  1,689
  1,786
  1,888
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -204
  -229
  -255
  -280
  -304
  -329
  -353
  -376
  -399
  -421
  -443
  -464
  -485
  -507
  -528
  -550
  -572
  -595
  -618
  -642
  -667
  -694
  -721
  -750
  -780
  -812
  -846
  -882
  -919
  -959
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  102
  22
  22
  21
  20
  20
  19
  19
  32
  54
  72
  100
  130
  162
  197
  233
  271
  312
  353
  397
  442
  489
  538
  588
  640
  694
  750
  808
  867
  929
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  97
  20
  18
  16
  15
  13
  12
  10
  15
  23
  27
  33
  37
  39
  40
  39
  37
  34
  31
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.9
  92.5
  90.0
  88.1
  86.7
  85.7
  85.3
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1
  85.1

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. designs, manufactures and markets a range of apparel products. The Company operates through two segments: wholesale operations and retail operations. Its apparel products include outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, women's suits and women's performance wear, as well as women's handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories and luggage. The Company's owned brands include Donna Karan, DKNY, DKNY Jeans, Vilebrequin, G-III Sports by Carl Banks, Eliza J, Black Rivet and Jessica Howard. It has fashion licenses under the Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Karl Lagerfeld, Kenneth Cole, Cole Haan and Dockers brands. Through its team sports business, it has licenses with the National Football League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball and National Hockey League. It also operates retail stores under the Donna Karan, Wilsons Leather, Bass, G.H. Bass & Co., Vilebrequin and Calvin Klein Performance names.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  G-III Apparel Group (GIII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.7
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.2%
Total Debt to Equity 45.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

GIII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GIII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2386 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by G-III Apparel Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of G-III Apparel Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GIII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for GIII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of G-III Apparel Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of G-III Apparel Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GIII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GIII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.5% for G-III Apparel Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for G-III Apparel Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GIII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GIII are equal to 16.1%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in G-III Apparel Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GIII is equal to 20.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1021 million for G-III Apparel Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.93 million for G-III Apparel Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of G-III Apparel Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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Financial statements of GIII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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