Intrinsic value of Globus Maritime Limited - GLBS

Previous Close

$4.61

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$4.61

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLBS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  59.90
  54.41
  49.47
  45.02
  41.02
  37.42
  34.18
  31.26
  28.63
  26.27
  24.14
  22.23
  20.51
  18.95
  17.56
  16.30
  15.17
  14.16
  13.24
  12.42
  11.67
  11.01
  10.41
  9.87
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.19
  7.87
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  22
  35
  52
  75
  106
  145
  195
  256
  329
  415
  516
  630
  759
  903
  1,062
  1,235
  1,423
  1,624
  1,839
  2,067
  2,309
  2,563
  2,830
  3,109
  3,400
  3,704
  4,021
  4,350
  4,693
  5,049
Variable operating expenses, $m
  41
  59
  84
  117
  162
  219
  291
  379
  486
  611
  747
  914
  1,101
  1,310
  1,540
  1,791
  2,062
  2,354
  2,666
  2,997
  3,347
  3,715
  4,102
  4,506
  4,929
  5,370
  5,829
  6,306
  6,803
  7,319
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  41
  59
  84
  117
  162
  219
  291
  379
  486
  611
  747
  914
  1,101
  1,310
  1,540
  1,791
  2,062
  2,354
  2,666
  2,997
  3,347
  3,715
  4,102
  4,506
  4,929
  5,370
  5,829
  6,306
  6,803
  7,319
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -24
  -32
  -42
  -56
  -74
  -96
  -124
  -157
  -195
  -232
  -283
  -341
  -406
  -477
  -555
  -640
  -730
  -827
  -929
  -1,038
  -1,152
  -1,272
  -1,398
  -1,529
  -1,665
  -1,808
  -1,956
  -2,110
  -2,270
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -22
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -68
  -77
  -87
  -97
  -107
  -119
  -130
  -143
  -155
  -169
  -182
  -197
  -212
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  4
  6
  9
  13
  19
  26
  35
  47
  60
  76
  94
  115
  139
  165
  195
  226
  261
  298
  337
  379
  423
  470
  519
  570
  624
  680
  738
  798
  861
Earnings before tax, $m
  -21
  -28
  -38
  -52
  -70
  -93
  -123
  -159
  -203
  -255
  -308
  -378
  -457
  -545
  -643
  -750
  -866
  -991
  -1,125
  -1,267
  -1,417
  -1,576
  -1,742
  -1,917
  -2,099
  -2,289
  -2,487
  -2,693
  -2,908
  -3,131
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -21
  -28
  -38
  -52
  -70
  -93
  -123
  -159
  -203
  -255
  -308
  -378
  -457
  -545
  -643
  -750
  -866
  -991
  -1,125
  -1,267
  -1,417
  -1,576
  -1,742
  -1,917
  -2,099
  -2,289
  -2,487
  -2,693
  -2,908
  -3,131

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  146
  226
  338
  490
  691
  949
  1,273
  1,671
  2,150
  2,715
  3,370
  4,119
  4,964
  5,905
  6,942
  8,073
  9,298
  10,615
  12,020
  13,512
  15,090
  16,751
  18,494
  20,318
  22,224
  24,211
  26,281
  28,434
  30,672
  32,999
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  146
  226
  338
  490
  691
  949
  1,273
  1,671
  2,150
  2,715
  3,370
  4,119
  4,964
  5,905
  6,942
  8,073
  9,298
  10,615
  12,020
  13,512
  15,090
  16,751
  18,494
  20,318
  22,224
  24,211
  26,281
  28,434
  30,672
  32,999
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.151
  0.155
  0.154
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
Average production assets, $m
  143
  221
  331
  480
  676
  929
  1,247
  1,637
  2,105
  2,658
  3,300
  4,034
  4,861
  5,782
  6,797
  7,905
  9,105
  10,394
  11,770
  13,231
  14,776
  16,402
  18,109
  19,896
  21,762
  23,708
  25,734
  27,842
  30,034
  32,313
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -25
  -36
  -49
  -66
  -87
  -112
  -141
  -175
  -214
  -257
  -306
  -360
  -419
  -482
  -551
  -623
  -701
  -783
  -869
  -959
  -1,054
  -1,153
  -1,256
  -1,363
  -1,475
  -1,591
  -1,712
Total debt, $m
  70
  111
  169
  249
  353
  487
  656
  863
  1,112
  1,406
  1,746
  2,136
  2,575
  3,064
  3,604
  4,192
  4,829
  5,513
  6,244
  7,020
  7,841
  8,704
  9,611
  10,560
  11,550
  12,584
  13,660
  14,779
  15,944
  17,153
Total liabilities, $m
  76
  117
  176
  255
  359
  493
  662
  869
  1,118
  1,412
  1,752
  2,142
  2,581
  3,070
  3,610
  4,198
  4,835
  5,520
  6,250
  7,026
  7,847
  8,710
  9,617
  10,566
  11,557
  12,590
  13,666
  14,786
  15,950
  17,160
Total equity, $m
  70
  108
  162
  235
  331
  456
  611
  802
  1,032
  1,303
  1,618
  1,977
  2,383
  2,834
  3,332
  3,875
  4,463
  5,095
  5,770
  6,486
  7,243
  8,040
  8,877
  9,753
  10,668
  11,621
  12,615
  13,648
  14,723
  15,840
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  146
  225
  338
  490
  690
  949
  1,273
  1,671
  2,150
  2,715
  3,370
  4,119
  4,964
  5,904
  6,942
  8,073
  9,298
  10,615
  12,020
  13,512
  15,090
  16,750
  18,494
  20,319
  22,225
  24,211
  26,281
  28,434
  30,673
  33,000
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.000
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -21
  -28
  -38
  -52
  -70
  -93
  -123
  -159
  -203
  -255
  -308
  -378
  -457
  -545
  -643
  -750
  -866
  -991
  -1,125
  -1,267
  -1,417
  -1,576
  -1,742
  -1,917
  -2,099
  -2,289
  -2,487
  -2,693
  -2,908
  -3,131
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  23
  30
  39
  52
  68
  88
  113
  143
  178
  210
  257
  310
  368
  433
  504
  580
  662
  750
  843
  941
  1,045
  1,153
  1,267
  1,386
  1,510
  1,639
  1,773
  1,913
  2,058
Funds from operations, $m
  -3
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -25
  -34
  -46
  -60
  -77
  -98
  -121
  -147
  -177
  -210
  -246
  -286
  -329
  -375
  -424
  -476
  -531
  -589
  -649
  -713
  -779
  -848
  -920
  -995
  -1,073
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -7
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -36
  -48
  -64
  -82
  -103
  -128
  -156
  -188
  -222
  -261
  -302
  -346
  -394
  -445
  -498
  -555
  -614
  -676
  -741
  -808
  -879
  -952
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -9
  -14
  -21
  -31
  -43
  -59
  -79
  -104
  -134
  -169
  -210
  -257
  -310
  -368
  -433
  -504
  -580
  -662
  -750
  -843
  -941
  -1,045
  -1,153
  -1,267
  -1,386
  -1,510
  -1,639
  -1,773
  -1,913
New CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -78
  -109
  -149
  -197
  -253
  -318
  -390
  -469
  -553
  -642
  -734
  -827
  -921
  -1,015
  -1,108
  -1,199
  -1,289
  -1,376
  -1,461
  -1,545
  -1,626
  -1,707
  -1,787
  -1,866
  -1,946
  -2,026
  -2,108
  -2,192
  -2,278
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -60
  -87
  -123
  -170
  -228
  -296
  -377
  -469
  -573
  -687
  -811
  -944
  -1,084
  -1,231
  -1,383
  -1,541
  -1,703
  -1,869
  -2,038
  -2,211
  -2,388
  -2,567
  -2,752
  -2,940
  -3,133
  -3,332
  -3,536
  -3,747
  -3,965
  -4,191
Free cash flow, $m
  -60
  -88
  -126
  -174
  -235
  -308
  -394
  -495
  -608
  -735
  -875
  -1,026
  -1,187
  -1,359
  -1,540
  -1,729
  -1,925
  -2,129
  -2,340
  -2,558
  -2,782
  -3,012
  -3,250
  -3,495
  -3,747
  -4,008
  -4,277
  -4,556
  -4,844
  -5,143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  28
  41
  58
  79
  104
  134
  169
  207
  249
  294
  341
  390
  439
  489
  539
  588
  637
  684
  731
  776
  820
  864
  906
  949
  991
  1,033
  1,076
  1,120
  1,164
  1,210
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  47
  66
  92
  125
  166
  217
  278
  350
  433
  527
  622
  737
  862
  997
  1,141
  1,293
  1,454
  1,623
  1,799
  1,983
  2,174
  2,373
  2,579
  2,792
  3,014
  3,243
  3,481
  3,727
  3,982
  4,248
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  75
  107
  150
  204
  270
  351
  447
  557
  682
  821
  963
  1,127
  1,301
  1,486
  1,680
  1,881
  2,091
  2,307
  2,530
  2,759
  2,994
  3,237
  3,485
  3,741
  4,005
  4,276
  4,557
  4,847
  5,146
  5,458
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  19
  24
  29
  36
  44
  52
  62
  73
  85
  89
  101
  114
  127
  140
  153
  165
  178
  190
  202
  213
  224
  235
  246
  257
  268
  279
  291
  302
  314
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -66
  -92
  -125
  -166
  -217
  -278
  -350
  -433
  -527
  -622
  -737
  -862
  -997
  -1,141
  -1,293
  -1,454
  -1,623
  -1,799
  -1,983
  -2,174
  -2,373
  -2,579
  -2,792
  -3,014
  -3,243
  -3,481
  -3,727
  -3,982
  -4,248
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -31
  -47
  -68
  -95
  -130
  -173
  -226
  -288
  -360
  -442
  -534
  -636
  -748
  -870
  -1,001
  -1,140
  -1,289
  -1,445
  -1,609
  -1,781
  -1,961
  -2,149
  -2,343
  -2,546
  -2,756
  -2,975
  -3,201
  -3,436
  -3,680
  -3,933
Discount rate, %
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -29
  -39
  -51
  -64
  -78
  -91
  -103
  -112
  -118
  -121
  -120
  -116
  -109
  -99
  -88
  -75
  -63
  -51
  -40
  -31
  -23
  -16
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  39.4
  16.8
  7.6
  3.6
  1.8
  0.9
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Globus Maritime Limited is a drybulk shipping company, providing marine transportation services on a worldwide basis. As of March 22, 2016, the Company own five modern drybulk carriers, consisting of one Panamax, and four Supramax vessels with a weighted average age of approximately 8.1 years and a total carrying capacity of 300,571 Deadweight Tons (dwt). The Company operates six modern drybulk carriers, consisting of one Kanasarmax, one Panamax, and four Supramex vessels.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Globus Maritime Limited (GLBS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.2
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3
Price to Free Cash Flow -3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -30.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 200%
Total Debt to Equity 314.3%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9%
Return On Total Capital -10.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11%
Return On Equity -38.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -44.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.8%
EBITDA Margin -33.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.5%
Operating Margin -77.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -93.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -111.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -115.2%
Net Profit Margin -111.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -115.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

GLBS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLBS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Globus Maritime Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Globus Maritime Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLBS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 59.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for GLBS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Globus Maritime Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Globus Maritime Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLBS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 207.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLBS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Globus Maritime Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Globus Maritime Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLBS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLBS are equal to 640%.

Life of production assets of 15.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Globus Maritime Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLBS is equal to -33.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $43.968 million for Globus Maritime Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 0.032 million for Globus Maritime Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Globus Maritime Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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