Intrinsic value of Great Lakes Dredge&Dock - GLDD

Previous Close

$7.06

  Intrinsic Value

$0.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$7.06

 
Intrinsic value

$0.55

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLDD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  717
  733
  752
  773
  796
  822
  850
  880
  913
  948
  986
  1,026
  1,068
  1,114
  1,162
  1,212
  1,266
  1,323
  1,384
  1,447
  1,514
  1,585
  1,659
  1,738
  1,821
  1,908
  2,000
  2,096
  2,198
  2,304
Variable operating expenses, $m
  299
  305
  313
  322
  331
  341
  353
  365
  378
  392
  399
  415
  433
  451
  470
  491
  513
  536
  560
  586
  613
  642
  672
  704
  737
  773
  810
  849
  890
  933
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  454
  464
  474
  484
  495
  506
  517
  528
  540
  552
  564
  576
  589
  602
  615
  629
  643
  657
  671
  686
  701
  717
  732
  749
  765
  782
  799
  817
  835
  853
Total operating expenses, $m
  753
  769
  787
  806
  826
  847
  870
  893
  918
  944
  963
  991
  1,022
  1,053
  1,085
  1,120
  1,156
  1,193
  1,231
  1,272
  1,314
  1,359
  1,404
  1,453
  1,502
  1,555
  1,609
  1,666
  1,725
  1,786
Operating income, $m
  -36
  -36
  -35
  -33
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -13
  -5
  4
  22
  34
  46
  60
  76
  93
  111
  131
  152
  175
  200
  226
  255
  286
  318
  353
  391
  431
  473
  518
EBITDA, $m
  29
  30
  32
  36
  41
  48
  56
  65
  75
  87
  100
  114
  130
  148
  167
  188
  210
  234
  261
  289
  319
  351
  385
  422
  461
  503
  548
  595
  646
  699
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
Earnings before tax, $m
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -61
  -57
  -53
  -48
  -42
  -35
  -18
  -9
  2
  13
  26
  40
  56
  73
  91
  111
  132
  155
  180
  206
  235
  265
  298
  333
  370
  409
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  7
  11
  15
  20
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  56
  63
  72
  80
  90
  100
  111
Net income, $m
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -61
  -57
  -53
  -48
  -42
  -35
  -18
  -9
  1
  10
  19
  29
  41
  53
  66
  81
  96
  113
  131
  151
  171
  194
  217
  243
  270
  299

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  848
  867
  890
  915
  943
  973
  1,006
  1,042
  1,081
  1,122
  1,166
  1,214
  1,264
  1,318
  1,375
  1,435
  1,499
  1,566
  1,637
  1,713
  1,792
  1,876
  1,964
  2,057
  2,155
  2,258
  2,366
  2,481
  2,601
  2,727
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  848
  867
  890
  915
  943
  973
  1,006
  1,042
  1,081
  1,122
  1,166
  1,214
  1,264
  1,318
  1,375
  1,435
  1,499
  1,566
  1,637
  1,713
  1,792
  1,876
  1,964
  2,057
  2,155
  2,258
  2,366
  2,481
  2,601
  2,727
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.846
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.844
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.846
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
Average production assets, $m
  461
  472
  484
  498
  513
  529
  548
  567
  588
  611
  635
  661
  688
  717
  748
  781
  816
  852
  891
  932
  975
  1,021
  1,069
  1,119
  1,173
  1,229
  1,288
  1,350
  1,415
  1,484
Working capital, $m
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  214
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
Total debt, $m
  442
  457
  473
  491
  512
  534
  558
  585
  613
  643
  676
  711
  748
  787
  829
  873
  920
  969
  1,022
  1,077
  1,135
  1,197
  1,261
  1,330
  1,401
  1,477
  1,557
  1,641
  1,729
  1,822
Total liabilities, $m
  622
  637
  653
  671
  692
  714
  738
  765
  793
  824
  856
  891
  928
  967
  1,009
  1,053
  1,100
  1,150
  1,202
  1,257
  1,315
  1,377
  1,442
  1,510
  1,582
  1,657
  1,737
  1,821
  1,909
  2,002
Total equity, $m
  226
  231
  237
  243
  251
  259
  268
  277
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  547
  573
  601
  629
  660
  692
  725
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  848
  868
  890
  914
  943
  973
  1,006
  1,042
  1,080
  1,122
  1,166
  1,214
  1,264
  1,318
  1,375
  1,435
  1,499
  1,567
  1,638
  1,713
  1,792
  1,876
  1,964
  2,057
  2,155
  2,258
  2,366
  2,481
  2,601
  2,727
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.040
  2.060
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.160
  2.180
  2.200
  2.220
  2.250
  2.270
  2.290
  2.310
  2.330
  2.350
  2.360
  2.380
  2.400
  2.410
  2.430
  2.450
  2.460
  2.470
  2.490
  2.500
  2.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -61
  -57
  -53
  -48
  -42
  -35
  -18
  -9
  1
  10
  19
  29
  41
  53
  66
  81
  96
  113
  131
  151
  171
  194
  217
  243
  270
  299
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  2
  4
  7
  10
  16
  22
  29
  38
  48
  59
  72
  85
  97
  110
  125
  140
  157
  175
  194
  215
  238
  261
  287
  314
  343
  374
  407
  442
  480
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  0
  1
  4
  7
  12
  18
  25
  34
  43
  54
  66
  79
  91
  104
  117
  133
  149
  166
  185
  206
  228
  251
  276
  303
  331
  361
  394
  428
  465
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -95
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
Free cash flow, $m
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -69
  -69
  -67
  -65
  -61
  -57
  -51
  -45
  -37
  -29
  -22
  -15
  -7
  3
  13
  24
  36
  49
  63
  78
  95
  113
  132
  153
  175
  198
  223
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  67
  69
  70
  69
  68
  65
  62
  58
  52
  46
  30
  21
  12
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  78
  83
  86
  87
  88
  87
  86
  84
  80
  76
  63
  56
  49
  44
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  18
  19
  20
  22
  27
  38
  49
  62
  76
  91
  107
  125
  143
  163
  185
  208
  232
  258
  286
  316
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -67
  -69
  -70
  -69
  -68
  -65
  -62
  -58
  -52
  -46
  -30
  -21
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -53
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -48
  -45
  -40
  -35
  -28
  -21
  -12
  -2
  7
  7
  12
  22
  32
  44
  57
  71
  86
  102
  120
  139
  159
  180
  203
  228
  254
  283
Discount rate, %
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -48
  -43
  -38
  -32
  -27
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -8
  -5
  -2
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  86.7
  75.2
  65.2
  56.9
  49.9
  44.1
  39.3
  35.5
  32.4
  30.0
  28.6
  27.6
  27.1
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9
  26.9

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is a provider of dredging services. The Company provides dredging services in the East, West and Gulf Coasts of the United States and around the world. It operates in two segments: Dredging Operations, which involves enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock, and Environmental & Remediation Operations, which provides construction services on soil, water and sediment for clients in both the public and private sectors. It has interest in Amboy Aggregates, which is involved in mining sand from the entrance channel to New York Harbor for providing sand and aggregate for use in road and building construction, and for clean land fill; Lower Main Street Development, LLC (Lower Main), which is engaged in land development and sale business, and TerraSea Environmental Solutions (TerraSea), which is engaged in the environmental services business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Great Lakes Dredge&Dock (GLDD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -53.8
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 13.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0.9
LT Debt to Equity 158.1%
Total Debt to Equity 158.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital -1.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Return On Equity -3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin 2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 42.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Payout Ratio 0%

GLDD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLDD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $702.503 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Great Lakes Dredge&Dock. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Great Lakes Dredge&Dock. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLDD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for GLDD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Great Lakes Dredge&Dock, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Great Lakes Dredge&Dock.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLDD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $444 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLDD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Great Lakes Dredge&Dock.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Great Lakes Dredge&Dock. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLDD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLDD are equal to 64.4%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Great Lakes Dredge&Dock operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLDD is equal to 14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $221.296 million for Great Lakes Dredge&Dock - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.305 million for Great Lakes Dredge&Dock is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Great Lakes Dredge&Dock at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Great Lakes Dredge & Dock: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-06-18 08:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Great Lakes Reports Third Quarter Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Dredge & Dock: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-01-18 09:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Great Lakes Reports Second Quarter Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Leading Tampa Bay businesswoman takes on new role   [May-14-18 02:32PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Great Lakes Dredge & Dock: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 08:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Great Lakes Reports First Quarter Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Dredge & Dock posts 4Q loss   [09:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Great Lakes Announces Updates to Executive Management Team   [Jan-25-18 04:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Announces Changes to Board of Directors   [Nov-30-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Dredge & Dock posts 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 08:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Great Lakes Reports Third Quarter Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes CEO Provides Business Update   [Oct-06-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Dredge & Dock posts 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 09:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Great Lakes Reports Second Quarter Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Infrastructure Has a Shaky Foundation   [May-21-17 10:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Great Lakes Dredge & Dock posts 1Q loss   [08:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Great Lakes Reports First Quarter Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Dredge & Dock posts 4Q loss   [Feb-22-17 08:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Great Lakes Reports Year-End Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Announces Changes to Board of Directors   [Jan-26-17 06:48AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Executes $250 Million Revolving Credit Facility   [Jan-06-17 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Great Lakes Announces Management and Board Transitions   [Jan-04-17 06:01PM  GlobeNewswire]

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