Intrinsic value of GasLog LP. - GLOG

Previous Close

$17.15

  Intrinsic Value

$8.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-52%

Previous close

$17.15

 
Intrinsic value

$8.20

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLOG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.70
  16.43
  15.29
  14.26
  13.33
  12.50
  11.75
  11.07
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
Revenue, $m
  727
  847
  976
  1,116
  1,264
  1,422
  1,589
  1,765
  1,950
  2,144
  2,346
  2,557
  2,776
  3,005
  3,242
  3,489
  3,746
  4,012
  4,289
  4,577
  4,877
  5,188
  5,513
  5,850
  6,202
  6,569
  6,951
  7,350
  7,767
  8,201
Variable operating expenses, $m
  142
  166
  191
  218
  247
  277
  310
  344
  380
  418
  456
  497
  540
  584
  630
  678
  728
  780
  834
  890
  948
  1,009
  1,072
  1,137
  1,206
  1,277
  1,351
  1,429
  1,510
  1,594
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  215
  219
  224
  229
  234
  239
  245
  250
  255
  261
  267
  273
  279
  285
  291
  297
  304
  311
  318
  325
  332
  339
  346
  354
  362
  370
  378
  386
  395
  403
Total operating expenses, $m
  357
  385
  415
  447
  481
  516
  555
  594
  635
  679
  723
  770
  819
  869
  921
  975
  1,032
  1,091
  1,152
  1,215
  1,280
  1,348
  1,418
  1,491
  1,568
  1,647
  1,729
  1,815
  1,905
  1,997
Operating income, $m
  370
  462
  561
  669
  783
  906
  1,035
  1,171
  1,315
  1,465
  1,623
  1,787
  1,958
  2,136
  2,321
  2,513
  2,713
  2,922
  3,138
  3,363
  3,597
  3,841
  4,095
  4,359
  4,635
  4,922
  5,222
  5,535
  5,862
  6,204
EBITDA, $m
  552
  673
  804
  946
  1,098
  1,259
  1,430
  1,610
  1,799
  1,997
  2,204
  2,421
  2,646
  2,880
  3,124
  3,378
  3,642
  3,916
  4,201
  4,497
  4,806
  5,127
  5,461
  5,809
  6,172
  6,550
  6,945
  7,357
  7,787
  8,236
Interest expense (income), $m
  79
  176
  217
  263
  312
  365
  422
  482
  546
  613
  684
  758
  835
  915
  999
  1,086
  1,177
  1,271
  1,369
  1,470
  1,576
  1,686
  1,800
  1,919
  2,043
  2,171
  2,306
  2,445
  2,591
  2,743
  2,902
Earnings before tax, $m
  194
  245
  298
  356
  418
  483
  552
  625
  701
  781
  865
  952
  1,043
  1,137
  1,235
  1,337
  1,443
  1,553
  1,668
  1,787
  1,911
  2,041
  2,176
  2,317
  2,463
  2,617
  2,777
  2,944
  3,119
  3,302
Tax expense, $m
  52
  66
  81
  96
  113
  131
  149
  169
  189
  211
  234
  257
  282
  307
  333
  361
  390
  419
  450
  483
  516
  551
  587
  625
  665
  707
  750
  795
  842
  891
Net income, $m
  142
  179
  218
  260
  305
  353
  403
  456
  512
  570
  632
  695
  761
  830
  901
  976
  1,053
  1,134
  1,217
  1,305
  1,395
  1,490
  1,588
  1,691
  1,798
  1,910
  2,027
  2,149
  2,277
  2,410

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,819
  6,775
  7,811
  8,925
  10,114
  11,379
  12,716
  14,124
  15,602
  17,150
  18,767
  20,453
  22,209
  24,037
  25,937
  27,912
  29,964
  32,097
  34,314
  36,618
  39,015
  41,508
  44,102
  46,804
  49,618
  52,551
  55,610
  58,801
  62,132
  65,610
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,819
  6,775
  7,811
  8,925
  10,114
  11,379
  12,716
  14,124
  15,602
  17,150
  18,767
  20,453
  22,209
  24,037
  25,937
  27,912
  29,964
  32,097
  34,314
  36,618
  39,015
  41,508
  44,102
  46,804
  49,618
  52,551
  55,610
  58,801
  62,132
  65,610
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
  0.125
Average production assets, $m
  5,210
  6,065
  6,993
  7,990
  9,055
  10,187
  11,384
  12,644
  13,968
  15,353
  16,801
  18,311
  19,883
  21,519
  23,220
  24,988
  26,826
  28,735
  30,720
  32,783
  34,928
  37,160
  39,482
  41,901
  44,420
  47,046
  49,785
  52,642
  55,624
  58,738
Working capital, $m
  -84
  -97
  -112
  -128
  -145
  -164
  -183
  -203
  -224
  -247
  -270
  -294
  -319
  -346
  -373
  -401
  -431
  -461
  -493
  -526
  -561
  -597
  -634
  -673
  -713
  -755
  -799
  -845
  -893
  -943
Total debt, $m
  3,748
  4,534
  5,385
  6,301
  7,279
  8,318
  9,417
  10,575
  11,790
  13,062
  14,391
  15,777
  17,221
  18,723
  20,285
  21,909
  23,596
  25,349
  27,171
  29,065
  31,035
  33,084
  35,217
  37,437
  39,751
  42,162
  44,676
  47,299
  50,037
  52,897
Total liabilities, $m
  4,783
  5,569
  6,421
  7,336
  8,314
  9,353
  10,452
  11,610
  12,825
  14,097
  15,426
  16,812
  18,256
  19,758
  21,320
  22,944
  24,631
  26,384
  28,206
  30,100
  32,070
  34,119
  36,252
  38,473
  40,786
  43,197
  45,711
  48,335
  51,073
  53,932
Total equity, $m
  1,036
  1,206
  1,390
  1,589
  1,800
  2,025
  2,263
  2,514
  2,777
  3,053
  3,340
  3,641
  3,953
  4,279
  4,617
  4,968
  5,334
  5,713
  6,108
  6,518
  6,945
  7,388
  7,850
  8,331
  8,832
  9,354
  9,899
  10,467
  11,060
  11,679
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,819
  6,775
  7,811
  8,925
  10,114
  11,378
  12,715
  14,124
  15,602
  17,150
  18,766
  20,453
  22,209
  24,037
  25,937
  27,912
  29,965
  32,097
  34,314
  36,618
  39,015
  41,507
  44,102
  46,804
  49,618
  52,551
  55,610
  58,802
  62,133
  65,611
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.620
  3.760
  3.870
  3.970
  4.040
  4.110
  4.160
  4.210
  4.250
  4.280
  4.310
  4.330
  4.360
  4.380
  4.390
  4.410
  4.420
  4.440
  4.450
  4.460
  4.470
  4.480
  4.490
  4.490
  4.500
  4.510
  4.510
  4.520
  4.520
  4.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  142
  179
  218
  260
  305
  353
  403
  456
  512
  570
  632
  695
  761
  830
  901
  976
  1,053
  1,134
  1,217
  1,305
  1,395
  1,490
  1,588
  1,691
  1,798
  1,910
  2,027
  2,149
  2,277
  2,410
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  181
  211
  243
  277
  314
  353
  395
  439
  484
  532
  581
  634
  688
  745
  803
  865
  928
  994
  1,063
  1,134
  1,209
  1,286
  1,366
  1,450
  1,537
  1,628
  1,723
  1,822
  1,925
  2,032
Funds from operations, $m
  323
  389
  461
  538
  619
  706
  798
  895
  996
  1,103
  1,213
  1,329
  1,449
  1,575
  1,705
  1,841
  1,981
  2,128
  2,280
  2,439
  2,604
  2,776
  2,955
  3,141
  3,335
  3,538
  3,750
  3,971
  4,201
  4,443
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from operations, $m
  336
  403
  476
  554
  637
  725
  817
  915
  1,018
  1,125
  1,236
  1,353
  1,474
  1,601
  1,732
  1,869
  2,011
  2,159
  2,312
  2,472
  2,638
  2,812
  2,992
  3,180
  3,376
  3,580
  3,794
  4,016
  4,249
  4,493
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -153
  -180
  -210
  -242
  -276
  -313
  -352
  -394
  -438
  -483
  -531
  -581
  -634
  -688
  -745
  -803
  -865
  -928
  -994
  -1,063
  -1,134
  -1,209
  -1,286
  -1,366
  -1,450
  -1,537
  -1,628
  -1,723
  -1,822
  -1,925
New CAPEX, $m
  -783
  -856
  -927
  -997
  -1,065
  -1,132
  -1,197
  -1,261
  -1,323
  -1,386
  -1,448
  -1,510
  -1,572
  -1,636
  -1,701
  -1,768
  -1,837
  -1,909
  -1,985
  -2,063
  -2,145
  -2,232
  -2,323
  -2,419
  -2,520
  -2,626
  -2,738
  -2,857
  -2,982
  -3,114
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -936
  -1,036
  -1,137
  -1,239
  -1,341
  -1,445
  -1,549
  -1,655
  -1,761
  -1,869
  -1,979
  -2,091
  -2,206
  -2,324
  -2,446
  -2,571
  -2,702
  -2,837
  -2,979
  -3,126
  -3,279
  -3,441
  -3,609
  -3,785
  -3,970
  -4,163
  -4,366
  -4,580
  -4,804
  -5,039
Free cash flow, $m
  -601
  -633
  -661
  -685
  -705
  -721
  -732
  -739
  -743
  -744
  -742
  -738
  -731
  -723
  -713
  -703
  -691
  -679
  -667
  -654
  -641
  -629
  -617
  -605
  -594
  -583
  -573
  -563
  -554
  -546
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  714
  786
  851
  915
  978
  1,039
  1,099
  1,158
  1,215
  1,272
  1,329
  1,386
  1,444
  1,502
  1,562
  1,623
  1,687
  1,753
  1,822
  1,894
  1,970
  2,049
  2,133
  2,221
  2,313
  2,411
  2,514
  2,623
  2,738
  2,859
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  728
  786
  851
  915
  978
  1,039
  1,099
  1,158
  1,215
  1,272
  1,329
  1,386
  1,444
  1,502
  1,562
  1,623
  1,687
  1,753
  1,822
  1,894
  1,970
  2,049
  2,133
  2,221
  2,313
  2,411
  2,514
  2,623
  2,738
  2,859
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  127
  153
  190
  230
  273
  319
  367
  418
  472
  528
  587
  648
  712
  779
  848
  921
  996
  1,074
  1,156
  1,240
  1,328
  1,420
  1,516
  1,616
  1,720
  1,828
  1,942
  2,060
  2,184
  2,313
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -156
  -170
  -184
  -198
  -212
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -313
  -325
  -338
  -352
  -365
  -380
  -395
  -410
  -427
  -444
  -462
  -481
  -501
  -522
  -544
  -568
  -593
  -619
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -29
  -17
  6
  32
  61
  94
  129
  167
  209
  253
  299
  348
  400
  454
  510
  569
  631
  695
  761
  830
  902
  977
  1,054
  1,135
  1,219
  1,306
  1,397
  1,492
  1,591
  1,694
Discount rate, %
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -26
  -14
  4
  21
  35
  46
  55
  60
  63
  62
  60
  55
  50
  43
  37
  30
  24
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0

GasLog Ltd. is an international owner, operator and manager of liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The Company provides support to international energy companies as part of their LNG logistics chain. The Company's owned consolidated fleet consists of 27 LNG carriers, including 22 ships in operation and five LNG carriers on order. The Company also had four LNG carriers operating under its technical management for third parties. GasLog Partners LP, a master limited partnership formed by the Company, owned a further of approximately 10 LNG carriers. Its on the water fleet includes Methane Lydon Volney, GasLog Savannah, GasLog Savannah, GasLog Chelsea, GasLog Skagen, Solaris and GasLog Saratoga. Its new builds vessels include Hull No. 2130, Hull No. 2800 and Hull No. 2801. Its GasLog Partners Fleet includes GasLog Seattle, GasLog Shanghai, GasLog Santiago, GasLog Sydney and Methane Jane Elizabeth. Its managed fleet includes Methane Julia Louise and Methane Nile Eagle.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GasLog LP. (GLOG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -65.8
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 287.4%
Total Debt to Equity 303.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital -0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -2.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76%
EBITDA Margin 49.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.6%
Operating Margin 37.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Net Profit Margin -4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -471.4%

GLOG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLOG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $618 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GasLog LP.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of GasLog LP.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLOG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for GLOG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GasLog LP., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GasLog LP..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLOG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $210 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLOG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for GasLog LP..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GasLog LP.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLOG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLOG are equal to 716.2%.

Life of production assets of 28.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GasLog LP. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLOG is equal to -11.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $879.742 million for GasLog LP. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.636 million for GasLog LP. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GasLog LP. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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