Intrinsic value of GasLog Partners LP - GLOP

Previous Close

$22.30

  Intrinsic Value

$6.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$22.30

 
Intrinsic value

$6.36

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLOP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  360
  368
  378
  388
  400
  413
  427
  442
  459
  476
  495
  515
  537
  560
  584
  609
  636
  665
  695
  727
  761
  796
  834
  873
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,158
Variable operating expenses, $m
  167
  171
  176
  181
  186
  192
  199
  206
  213
  222
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  446
  467
  490
  513
  538
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  167
  171
  176
  181
  186
  192
  199
  206
  213
  222
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  446
  467
  490
  513
  538
Operating income, $m
  193
  197
  202
  208
  214
  221
  229
  237
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  326
  340
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  513
  538
  564
  591
  619
EBITDA, $m
  276
  282
  289
  298
  307
  316
  327
  339
  351
  365
  379
  395
  411
  429
  447
  467
  487
  509
  532
  557
  583
  610
  639
  669
  701
  734
  770
  807
  846
  887
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
Earnings before tax, $m
  126
  129
  133
  136
  141
  145
  151
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  216
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  282
  295
  310
  324
  340
  356
  373
  392
  411
Tax expense, $m
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
Net income, $m
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,466
  2,523
  2,588
  2,661
  2,741
  2,830
  2,926
  3,030
  3,143
  3,263
  3,392
  3,530
  3,677
  3,832
  3,998
  4,173
  4,358
  4,555
  4,762
  4,981
  5,211
  5,455
  5,712
  5,982
  6,267
  6,567
  6,882
  7,214
  7,564
  7,931
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,466
  2,523
  2,588
  2,661
  2,741
  2,830
  2,926
  3,030
  3,143
  3,263
  3,392
  3,530
  3,677
  3,832
  3,998
  4,173
  4,358
  4,555
  4,762
  4,981
  5,211
  5,455
  5,712
  5,982
  6,267
  6,567
  6,882
  7,214
  7,564
  7,931
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
Average production assets, $m
  2,386
  2,441
  2,504
  2,575
  2,653
  2,738
  2,831
  2,932
  3,041
  3,158
  3,283
  3,416
  3,558
  3,709
  3,869
  4,038
  4,218
  4,407
  4,608
  4,820
  5,043
  5,279
  5,527
  5,789
  6,064
  6,354
  6,660
  6,981
  7,319
  7,675
Working capital, $m
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
Total debt, $m
  1,259
  1,288
  1,322
  1,359
  1,400
  1,445
  1,495
  1,548
  1,606
  1,667
  1,734
  1,804
  1,879
  1,959
  2,043
  2,133
  2,228
  2,329
  2,435
  2,547
  2,665
  2,790
  2,921
  3,059
  3,205
  3,359
  3,520
  3,690
  3,869
  4,057
Total liabilities, $m
  1,263
  1,292
  1,325
  1,362
  1,403
  1,449
  1,498
  1,552
  1,609
  1,671
  1,737
  1,807
  1,882
  1,962
  2,047
  2,137
  2,232
  2,332
  2,438
  2,550
  2,668
  2,793
  2,924
  3,063
  3,209
  3,362
  3,524
  3,694
  3,873
  4,061
Total equity, $m
  1,203
  1,231
  1,263
  1,298
  1,338
  1,381
  1,428
  1,479
  1,534
  1,593
  1,655
  1,723
  1,794
  1,870
  1,951
  2,036
  2,127
  2,223
  2,324
  2,431
  2,543
  2,662
  2,787
  2,919
  3,058
  3,204
  3,358
  3,521
  3,691
  3,870
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,466
  2,523
  2,588
  2,660
  2,741
  2,830
  2,926
  3,031
  3,143
  3,264
  3,392
  3,530
  3,676
  3,832
  3,998
  4,173
  4,359
  4,555
  4,762
  4,981
  5,211
  5,455
  5,711
  5,982
  6,267
  6,566
  6,882
  7,215
  7,564
  7,931
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  267
Funds from operations, $m
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  274
  286
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  469
  492
  516
  541
  567
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  176
  180
  185
  191
  197
  203
  210
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  413
  432
  453
  475
  497
  521
  547
  573
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -82
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -55
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -236
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -321
  -338
  -356
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -157
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -200
  -211
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -305
  -320
  -337
  -355
  -373
  -391
  -412
  -432
  -455
  -478
  -501
  -526
  -553
  -581
  -611
Free cash flow, $m
  48
  42
  37
  33
  29
  25
  21
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  4
  2
  -1
  -3
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  71
  71
  70
  70
  70
  71
  72
  73
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  48
  44
  39
  35
  31
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  5
  3
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
Discount rate, %
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  45
  38
  31
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

GasLog Partners LP is a limited partnership company. The Company focuses on owning, operating and acquiring liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers under multi-year charters. The Company's fleet consists of 9 LNG carriers with an average carrying capacity of approximately 149,500 cubic meters (cbm), each of which has a multi-year time charter. The Company's fleet includes GasLog Seattle, GasLog Shanghai, GasLog Santiago, GasLog Sydney, Methane Rita Andrea, Methane Jane Elizabeth, Methane Alison Victoria, Methane Shirley Elisabeth and Methane Heather Sally. The GasLog Seattle is a tri-fuel diesel electric LNG carrier. Each of the GasLog Seattle, GasLog Shanghai, GasLog Santiago and GasLog Sydney vessels has a cargo capacity of approximately 155,000 cbm. Each of the Methane Rita Andrea, Methane Heather Sally, Methane Shirley Elisabeth, Methane Alison Victoria and Methane Jane Elizabeth vessels has a cargo capacity of approximately 145,000 cbm.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GasLog Partners LP (GLOP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.2
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -59.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 143.3%
Total Debt to Equity 152.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 11.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.1%
EBITDA Margin 66.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.7%
Operating Margin 50.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 33.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Net Profit Margin 33.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 94.8%

GLOP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLOP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $353 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GasLog Partners LP. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of GasLog Partners LP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLOP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for GLOP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GasLog Partners LP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GasLog Partners LP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLOP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 46.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLOP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for GasLog Partners LP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GasLog Partners LP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLOP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLOP are equal to 662.8%.

Life of production assets of 28.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GasLog Partners LP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLOP is equal to -11.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1179.659 million for GasLog Partners LP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.369 million for GasLog Partners LP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GasLog Partners LP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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