Intrinsic value of Global Partners LP - GLP

Previous Close

$19.07

  Intrinsic Value

$81.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+327%

Previous close

$19.07

 
Intrinsic value

$81.48

 
Up/down potential

+327%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.40
  33.26
  30.43
  27.89
  25.60
  23.54
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.17
  15.95
  14.85
  13.87
  12.98
  12.18
  11.46
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
Revenue, $m
  17,286
  23,035
  30,046
  38,426
  48,263
  59,625
  72,556
  87,081
  103,206
  120,921
  140,206
  161,032
  183,364
  207,167
  232,407
  259,053
  287,078
  316,465
  347,203
  379,291
  412,735
  447,552
  483,769
  521,420
  560,551
  601,215
  643,473
  687,396
  733,061
  780,556
Variable operating expenses, $m
  16,909
  22,520
  29,362
  37,540
  47,141
  58,230
  70,850
  85,026
  100,763
  118,052
  136,835
  157,159
  178,955
  202,186
  226,819
  252,823
  280,175
  308,856
  338,855
  370,170
  402,810
  436,790
  472,136
  508,882
  547,072
  586,758
  628,000
  670,867
  715,434
  761,787
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
Total operating expenses, $m
  16,976
  22,589
  29,432
  37,612
  47,215
  58,305
  70,927
  85,105
  100,843
  118,134
  136,919
  157,245
  179,043
  202,276
  226,910
  252,916
  280,271
  308,954
  338,955
  370,272
  402,914
  436,897
  472,245
  508,993
  547,186
  586,874
  628,119
  670,988
  715,558
  761,914
Operating income, $m
  310
  446
  613
  813
  1,048
  1,320
  1,629
  1,977
  2,363
  2,787
  3,288
  3,786
  4,322
  4,892
  5,497
  6,136
  6,807
  7,512
  8,249
  9,018
  9,820
  10,655
  11,524
  12,427
  13,365
  14,340
  15,354
  16,408
  17,503
  18,642
EBITDA, $m
  474
  653
  871
  1,132
  1,439
  1,794
  2,197
  2,651
  3,155
  3,708
  4,311
  4,962
  5,660
  6,404
  7,193
  8,027
  8,903
  9,822
  10,783
  11,787
  12,833
  13,922
  15,055
  16,233
  17,457
  18,729
  20,051
  21,425
  22,854
  24,340
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  91
  132
  203
  288
  391
  511
  650
  808
  986
  1,183
  1,399
  1,635
  1,889
  2,162
  2,453
  2,762
  3,087
  3,430
  3,789
  4,165
  4,557
  4,966
  5,391
  5,834
  6,294
  6,773
  7,270
  7,786
  8,323
  8,881
Earnings before tax, $m
  218
  314
  411
  525
  658
  809
  979
  1,169
  1,377
  1,604
  1,888
  2,152
  2,432
  2,730
  3,044
  3,374
  3,720
  4,082
  4,460
  4,853
  5,263
  5,689
  6,132
  6,593
  7,071
  7,568
  8,084
  8,622
  9,180
  9,761
Tax expense, $m
  59
  85
  111
  142
  178
  218
  264
  316
  372
  433
  510
  581
  657
  737
  822
  911
  1,004
  1,102
  1,204
  1,310
  1,421
  1,536
  1,656
  1,780
  1,909
  2,043
  2,183
  2,328
  2,479
  2,636
Net income, $m
  159
  229
  300
  383
  480
  590
  715
  853
  1,005
  1,171
  1,379
  1,571
  1,775
  1,993
  2,222
  2,463
  2,716
  2,980
  3,256
  3,543
  3,842
  4,153
  4,477
  4,813
  5,162
  5,525
  5,902
  6,294
  6,701
  7,126

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,306
  4,406
  5,747
  7,350
  9,232
  11,405
  13,878
  16,657
  19,741
  23,129
  26,818
  30,802
  35,073
  39,626
  44,454
  49,551
  54,912
  60,533
  66,412
  72,550
  78,947
  85,607
  92,534
  99,736
  107,221
  114,999
  123,082
  131,483
  140,218
  149,303
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,306
  4,406
  5,747
  7,350
  9,232
  11,405
  13,878
  16,657
  19,741
  23,129
  26,818
  30,802
  35,073
  39,626
  44,454
  49,551
  54,912
  60,533
  66,412
  72,550
  78,947
  85,607
  92,534
  99,736
  107,221
  114,999
  123,082
  131,483
  140,218
  149,303
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  5.229
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
  5.228
Average production assets, $m
  1,729
  2,304
  3,005
  3,843
  4,826
  5,963
  7,256
  8,708
  10,321
  12,092
  14,021
  16,103
  18,336
  20,717
  23,241
  25,905
  28,708
  31,647
  34,720
  37,929
  41,273
  44,755
  48,377
  52,142
  56,055
  60,121
  64,347
  68,740
  73,306
  78,056
Working capital, $m
  484
  645
  841
  1,076
  1,351
  1,670
  2,032
  2,438
  2,890
  3,386
  3,926
  4,509
  5,134
  5,801
  6,507
  7,253
  8,038
  8,861
  9,722
  10,620
  11,557
  12,531
  13,546
  14,600
  15,695
  16,834
  18,017
  19,247
  20,526
  21,856
Total debt, $m
  1,866
  2,855
  4,062
  5,505
  7,198
  9,154
  11,380
  13,881
  16,657
  19,706
  23,026
  26,611
  30,456
  34,554
  38,899
  43,486
  48,310
  53,369
  58,661
  64,185
  69,942
  75,936
  82,171
  88,652
  95,389
  102,389
  109,664
  117,225
  125,086
  133,263
Total liabilities, $m
  2,976
  3,966
  5,172
  6,615
  8,309
  10,264
  12,491
  14,991
  17,767
  20,817
  24,136
  27,722
  31,566
  35,664
  40,009
  44,596
  49,420
  54,479
  59,771
  65,295
  71,052
  77,046
  83,281
  89,762
  96,499
  103,499
  110,774
  118,335
  126,196
  134,373
Total equity, $m
  331
  441
  575
  735
  923
  1,140
  1,388
  1,666
  1,974
  2,313
  2,682
  3,080
  3,507
  3,963
  4,445
  4,955
  5,491
  6,053
  6,641
  7,255
  7,895
  8,561
  9,253
  9,974
  10,722
  11,500
  12,308
  13,148
  14,022
  14,930
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,307
  4,407
  5,747
  7,350
  9,232
  11,404
  13,879
  16,657
  19,741
  23,130
  26,818
  30,802
  35,073
  39,627
  44,454
  49,551
  54,911
  60,532
  66,412
  72,550
  78,947
  85,607
  92,534
  99,736
  107,221
  114,999
  123,082
  131,483
  140,218
  149,303
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.640
  6.480
  7.070
  7.490
  7.800
  8.030
  8.200
  8.330
  8.440
  8.520
  8.590
  8.640
  8.680
  8.720
  8.750
  8.780
  8.800
  8.820
  8.830
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  159
  229
  300
  383
  480
  590
  715
  853
  1,005
  1,171
  1,379
  1,571
  1,775
  1,993
  2,222
  2,463
  2,716
  2,980
  3,256
  3,543
  3,842
  4,153
  4,477
  4,813
  5,162
  5,525
  5,902
  6,294
  6,701
  7,126
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  165
  207
  258
  319
  391
  474
  568
  674
  792
  921
  1,023
  1,175
  1,338
  1,512
  1,696
  1,891
  2,095
  2,310
  2,534
  2,769
  3,013
  3,267
  3,531
  3,806
  4,092
  4,388
  4,697
  5,017
  5,351
  5,697
Funds from operations, $m
  324
  436
  558
  702
  871
  1,064
  1,283
  1,527
  1,797
  2,092
  2,402
  2,746
  3,114
  3,505
  3,918
  4,354
  4,811
  5,290
  5,790
  6,312
  6,855
  7,420
  8,008
  8,619
  9,253
  9,913
  10,599
  11,311
  12,052
  12,823
Change in working capital, $m
  129
  161
  196
  235
  275
  318
  362
  407
  451
  496
  540
  583
  625
  666
  707
  746
  785
  823
  861
  898
  936
  975
  1,014
  1,054
  1,096
  1,139
  1,183
  1,230
  1,279
  1,330
Cash from operations, $m
  195
  275
  361
  468
  595
  746
  921
  1,121
  1,346
  1,596
  1,862
  2,163
  2,489
  2,838
  3,212
  3,608
  4,026
  4,467
  4,929
  5,413
  5,918
  6,445
  6,994
  7,564
  8,158
  8,774
  9,415
  10,081
  10,774
  11,493
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -126
  -168
  -219
  -280
  -352
  -435
  -530
  -636
  -753
  -883
  -1,023
  -1,175
  -1,338
  -1,512
  -1,696
  -1,891
  -2,095
  -2,310
  -2,534
  -2,769
  -3,013
  -3,267
  -3,531
  -3,806
  -4,092
  -4,388
  -4,697
  -5,017
  -5,351
New CAPEX, $m
  -455
  -575
  -701
  -838
  -984
  -1,136
  -1,293
  -1,452
  -1,612
  -1,772
  -1,929
  -2,083
  -2,233
  -2,380
  -2,524
  -2,665
  -2,803
  -2,939
  -3,074
  -3,209
  -3,344
  -3,482
  -3,622
  -3,765
  -3,913
  -4,066
  -4,226
  -4,392
  -4,567
  -4,749
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -548
  -701
  -869
  -1,057
  -1,264
  -1,488
  -1,728
  -1,982
  -2,248
  -2,525
  -2,812
  -3,106
  -3,408
  -3,718
  -4,036
  -4,361
  -4,694
  -5,034
  -5,384
  -5,743
  -6,113
  -6,495
  -6,889
  -7,296
  -7,719
  -8,158
  -8,614
  -9,089
  -9,584
  -10,100
Free cash flow, $m
  -353
  -426
  -508
  -590
  -669
  -742
  -807
  -861
  -902
  -928
  -949
  -943
  -920
  -880
  -825
  -753
  -667
  -567
  -454
  -330
  -195
  -49
  105
  268
  439
  616
  801
  992
  1,190
  1,393
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  578
  990
  1,207
  1,443
  1,694
  1,956
  2,226
  2,500
  2,776
  3,050
  3,320
  3,585
  3,845
  4,098
  4,345
  4,587
  4,825
  5,059
  5,292
  5,524
  5,757
  5,994
  6,235
  6,482
  6,736
  7,000
  7,275
  7,561
  7,861
  8,176
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  145
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  723
  990
  1,207
  1,443
  1,694
  1,956
  2,226
  2,500
  2,776
  3,050
  3,320
  3,585
  3,845
  4,098
  4,345
  4,587
  4,825
  5,059
  5,292
  5,524
  5,757
  5,994
  6,235
  6,482
  6,736
  7,000
  7,275
  7,561
  7,861
  8,176
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  370
  564
  699
  853
  1,025
  1,214
  1,419
  1,639
  1,874
  2,121
  2,371
  2,642
  2,924
  3,217
  3,520
  3,834
  4,157
  4,492
  4,837
  5,194
  5,563
  5,945
  6,340
  6,750
  7,175
  7,617
  8,076
  8,553
  9,051
  9,569
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -304
  -110
  -134
  -160
  -188
  -217
  -247
  -278
  -308
  -339
  -369
  -398
  -427
  -455
  -483
  -510
  -536
  -562
  -588
  -614
  -640
  -666
  -693
  -720
  -748
  -778
  -808
  -840
  -873
  -908
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  65
  454
  565
  693
  837
  996
  1,171
  1,361
  1,565
  1,782
  2,002
  2,244
  2,497
  2,762
  3,038
  3,324
  3,621
  3,930
  4,249
  4,580
  4,923
  5,279
  5,647
  6,030
  6,427
  6,839
  7,267
  7,713
  8,177
  8,661
Discount rate, %
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.71
  24.89
  26.14
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.77
  33.36
  35.02
  36.77
  38.61
  40.54
  42.57
  44.70
  46.93
  49.28
  51.75
  54.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  58
  350
  376
  392
  398
  391
  375
  348
  315
  277
  235
  195
  157
  123
  93
  69
  49
  34
  22
  14
  9
  5
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5
  64.5

Global Partners LP is a midstream logistics and marketing company. It is engaged in the purchasing, selling, storing and logistics of transporting petroleum and related products, including gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, natural gas and propane. Its segments include Wholesale, Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations and Commercial. In Wholesale segment, the Company engages in the logistics of selling, gathering, storage and transportation of refined petroleum products, renewable fuels, crude oil and propane. In Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations segment, gasoline distribution includes sales of branded and unbranded gasoline to gasoline station operators and sub-jobbers. The Commercial segment includes sales and deliveries to end user customers in the public sector and to commercial and industrial end users of unbranded gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, bunker fuel and natural gas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Global Partners LP (GLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.2
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio -0
LT Debt to Equity 260.8%
Total Debt to Equity 330.8%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital -11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity -38.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Asset Turnover 3.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 6.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
EBITDA Margin -0.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Operating Margin -1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Payout Ratio -31.7%

GLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12673 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Global Partners LP. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Global Partners LP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.2%, whose default value for GLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Global Partners LP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Global Partners LP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $66 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.1% for Global Partners LP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Global Partners LP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLP are equal to 10%.

Life of production assets of 13.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Global Partners LP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLP is equal to 2.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $26.39 million for Global Partners LP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.996 million for Global Partners LP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Global Partners LP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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