Intrinsic value of Gaming&Leisure Properties - GLPI

Previous Close

$33.26

  Intrinsic Value

$11.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-66%

Previous close

$33.26

 
Intrinsic value

$11.46

 
Up/down potential

-66%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GLPI.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  1,014
  1,059
  1,107
  1,158
  1,211
  1,267
  1,326
  1,389
  1,455
  1,524
  1,597
  1,674
  1,755
  1,840
  1,930
  2,024
  2,123
  2,227
  2,336
  2,451
  2,572
  2,698
  2,832
  2,972
  3,119
  3,274
  3,436
  3,607
  3,786
  3,974
Variable operating expenses, $m
  127
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  143
  147
  150
  154
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  175
  183
  192
  202
  212
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  253
  259
  265
  271
  277
  283
  289
  295
  302
  308
  315
  322
  329
  336
  344
  351
  359
  367
  375
  383
  392
  400
  409
  418
  427
  437
  446
  456
  466
  476
Total operating expenses, $m
  380
  388
  397
  405
  414
  423
  432
  442
  452
  462
  400
  411
  423
  434
  447
  459
  472
  486
  500
  514
  529
  544
  560
  576
  593
  612
  629
  648
  668
  688
Operating income, $m
  634
  671
  711
  753
  797
  844
  894
  947
  1,003
  1,062
  1,197
  1,263
  1,332
  1,406
  1,483
  1,564
  1,650
  1,741
  1,836
  1,937
  2,043
  2,154
  2,272
  2,395
  2,525
  2,662
  2,806
  2,958
  3,118
  3,286
EBITDA, $m
  851
  895
  942
  991
  1,043
  1,098
  1,157
  1,218
  1,284
  1,353
  1,425
  1,502
  1,583
  1,669
  1,759
  1,854
  1,954
  2,059
  2,170
  2,287
  2,410
  2,540
  2,676
  2,820
  2,971
  3,130
  3,298
  3,474
  3,659
  3,854
Interest expense (income), $m
  155
  240
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  351
  369
  387
  407
  427
  449
  471
  495
  520
  547
  574
  604
  634
  666
  700
  736
  773
  812
  853
  897
  942
  990
Earnings before tax, $m
  394
  420
  447
  477
  508
  541
  576
  613
  652
  693
  810
  856
  905
  957
  1,011
  1,069
  1,130
  1,194
  1,262
  1,333
  1,409
  1,488
  1,572
  1,660
  1,752
  1,850
  1,953
  2,062
  2,176
  2,296
Tax expense, $m
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
  219
  231
  244
  258
  273
  289
  305
  322
  341
  360
  380
  402
  424
  448
  473
  500
  527
  557
  587
  620
Net income, $m
  288
  306
  327
  348
  371
  395
  420
  447
  476
  506
  591
  625
  661
  698
  738
  780
  825
  872
  921
  973
  1,028
  1,086
  1,147
  1,212
  1,279
  1,351
  1,426
  1,505
  1,588
  1,676

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,567
  7,905
  8,262
  8,639
  9,037
  9,457
  9,899
  10,366
  10,857
  11,375
  11,920
  12,493
  13,097
  13,732
  14,400
  15,102
  15,840
  16,616
  17,432
  18,289
  19,191
  20,138
  21,133
  22,178
  23,276
  24,430
  25,642
  26,915
  28,252
  29,657
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,567
  7,905
  8,262
  8,639
  9,037
  9,457
  9,899
  10,366
  10,857
  11,375
  11,920
  12,493
  13,097
  13,732
  14,400
  15,102
  15,840
  16,616
  17,432
  18,289
  19,191
  20,138
  21,133
  22,178
  23,276
  24,430
  25,642
  26,915
  28,252
  29,657
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
Average production assets, $m
  4,349
  4,543
  4,748
  4,965
  5,194
  5,435
  5,689
  5,957
  6,240
  6,537
  6,851
  7,180
  7,527
  7,892
  8,276
  8,679
  9,104
  9,550
  10,019
  10,511
  11,029
  11,574
  12,145
  12,746
  13,377
  14,041
  14,737
  15,469
  16,237
  17,045
Working capital, $m
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
Total debt, $m
  4,656
  4,879
  5,115
  5,364
  5,628
  5,905
  6,198
  6,506
  6,831
  7,173
  7,533
  7,912
  8,311
  8,731
  9,172
  9,636
  10,124
  10,638
  11,177
  11,744
  12,339
  12,965
  13,623
  14,314
  15,040
  15,802
  16,604
  17,445
  18,329
  19,258
Total liabilities, $m
  5,002
  5,225
  5,461
  5,710
  5,973
  6,251
  6,543
  6,852
  7,177
  7,519
  7,879
  8,258
  8,657
  9,077
  9,518
  9,982
  10,470
  10,983
  11,523
  12,089
  12,685
  13,311
  13,969
  14,660
  15,386
  16,148
  16,949
  17,791
  18,675
  19,603
Total equity, $m
  2,565
  2,680
  2,801
  2,929
  3,063
  3,206
  3,356
  3,514
  3,681
  3,856
  4,041
  4,235
  4,440
  4,655
  4,881
  5,119
  5,370
  5,633
  5,909
  6,200
  6,506
  6,827
  7,164
  7,518
  7,891
  8,282
  8,693
  9,124
  9,578
  10,054
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,567
  7,905
  8,262
  8,639
  9,036
  9,457
  9,899
  10,366
  10,858
  11,375
  11,920
  12,493
  13,097
  13,732
  14,399
  15,101
  15,840
  16,616
  17,432
  18,289
  19,191
  20,138
  21,133
  22,178
  23,277
  24,430
  25,642
  26,915
  28,253
  29,657
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.850
  1.860
  1.860
  1.860
  1.870
  1.870
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.890
  1.890
  1.890
  1.890
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.910
  1.910
  1.910
  1.910
  1.910
  1.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  288
  306
  327
  348
  371
  395
  420
  447
  476
  506
  591
  625
  661
  698
  738
  780
  825
  872
  921
  973
  1,028
  1,086
  1,147
  1,212
  1,279
  1,351
  1,426
  1,505
  1,588
  1,676
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  217
  224
  231
  238
  246
  254
  262
  271
  281
  290
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  334
  350
  368
  386
  405
  425
  446
  468
  491
  516
  541
  568
Funds from operations, $m
  505
  530
  557
  586
  616
  648
  682
  718
  756
  797
  819
  864
  912
  962
  1,014
  1,070
  1,128
  1,190
  1,255
  1,324
  1,396
  1,472
  1,552
  1,636
  1,725
  1,819
  1,917
  2,021
  2,130
  2,244
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  506
  531
  558
  587
  617
  649
  683
  719
  758
  798
  821
  866
  913
  963
  1,016
  1,072
  1,130
  1,192
  1,257
  1,326
  1,398
  1,474
  1,555
  1,639
  1,728
  1,822
  1,920
  2,024
  2,133
  2,248
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -350
  -368
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -516
  -541
New CAPEX, $m
  -185
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -365
  -384
  -404
  -424
  -446
  -469
  -493
  -518
  -544
  -572
  -601
  -631
  -663
  -697
  -732
  -769
  -807
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -324
  -339
  -356
  -375
  -394
  -414
  -435
  -458
  -481
  -505
  -531
  -558
  -586
  -616
  -647
  -680
  -713
  -749
  -787
  -827
  -868
  -912
  -958
  -1,006
  -1,056
  -1,109
  -1,165
  -1,223
  -1,285
  -1,348
Free cash flow, $m
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  248
  262
  277
  292
  290
  308
  327
  347
  369
  392
  417
  443
  470
  499
  530
  562
  597
  633
  672
  713
  756
  801
  849
  899
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  213
  223
  236
  249
  263
  278
  293
  308
  325
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  441
  464
  488
  513
  539
  567
  596
  626
  658
  691
  726
  763
  801
  842
  884
  928
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  213
  223
  236
  249
  263
  278
  293
  308
  325
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  441
  464
  488
  513
  539
  567
  596
  626
  658
  691
  726
  763
  801
  842
  884
  928
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  396
  415
  438
  461
  486
  512
  540
  570
  601
  634
  650
  687
  726
  767
  810
  856
  905
  956
  1,009
  1,066
  1,126
  1,188
  1,255
  1,324
  1,398
  1,475
  1,557
  1,642
  1,733
  1,828
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -175
  -185
  -194
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -321
  -337
  -354
  -372
  -391
  -411
  -432
  -453
  -476
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  289
  301
  317
  333
  351
  370
  390
  412
  435
  459
  465
  492
  521
  552
  584
  618
  654
  692
  733
  775
  820
  867
  917
  970
  1,026
  1,084
  1,146
  1,211
  1,279
  1,352
Discount rate, %
  9.60
  10.08
  10.58
  11.11
  11.67
  12.25
  12.86
  13.51
  14.18
  14.89
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.10
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.00
  23.10
  24.26
  25.47
  26.75
  28.08
  29.49
  30.96
  32.51
  34.13
  35.84
  37.63
  39.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  264
  248
  234
  219
  202
  185
  167
  149
  132
  115
  94
  79
  66
  54
  43
  34
  26
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) is a self-administered and self-managed Pennsylvania real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is engaged in the business of acquiring, financing and owning real estate property to be leased to gaming operators in triple net lease arrangements. Its segments include GLP Capital, L.P. (GLP Capital), through which the Company owns all of its real estate assets, and the TRS Properties, which consists of Hollywood Casino Perryville and Hollywood Casino Baton Rouge. The GLP Capital segment consists of the leased real property. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 34 rental properties, consisting of the real property associated with 18 gaming and related facilities operated by Penn National Gaming, Inc. (Penn), the real property associated with 15 gaming and related facilities operated by Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. (Pinnacle), and the real property associated with the Casino Queen in East St. Louis, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gaming&Leisure Properties (GLPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.9
Price to Sales 8.3
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 44%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17115.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 189.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 191.7%
Total Debt to Equity 191.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Equity 26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -283.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 90.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.5%
EBITDA Margin 68.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.8%
Operating Margin 58%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 35.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
Net Profit Margin 34.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Effective Tax Rate 2.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Payout Ratio 148.1%

GLPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $971.307 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gaming&Leisure Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Gaming&Leisure Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.6%, whose default value for GLPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gaming&Leisure Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gaming&Leisure Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 12.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $248 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Gaming&Leisure Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gaming&Leisure Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLPI are equal to 428.9%.

Life of production assets of 36.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gaming&Leisure Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLPI is equal to -1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2458.247 million for Gaming&Leisure Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 207.127 million for Gaming&Leisure Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gaming&Leisure Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.9 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
PENN Penn National 21.37 15.51  str.sell

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