Intrinsic value of Globus Medical - GMED

Previous Close

$45.70

  Intrinsic Value

$28.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

Previous close

$45.70

 
Intrinsic value

$28.58

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GMED stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.80
  12.92
  12.13
  11.42
  10.77
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  724
  817
  916
  1,021
  1,131
  1,246
  1,367
  1,493
  1,624
  1,761
  1,903
  2,050
  2,204
  2,363
  2,529
  2,701
  2,880
  3,067
  3,260
  3,462
  3,672
  3,891
  4,120
  4,358
  4,606
  4,866
  5,136
  5,420
  5,716
  6,025
Variable operating expenses, $m
  523
  588
  656
  729
  805
  885
  969
  1,056
  1,148
  1,242
  1,321
  1,423
  1,530
  1,640
  1,755
  1,875
  1,999
  2,129
  2,263
  2,403
  2,549
  2,701
  2,860
  3,025
  3,197
  3,377
  3,566
  3,762
  3,967
  4,182
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  523
  588
  656
  729
  805
  885
  969
  1,056
  1,148
  1,242
  1,321
  1,423
  1,530
  1,640
  1,755
  1,875
  1,999
  2,129
  2,263
  2,403
  2,549
  2,701
  2,860
  3,025
  3,197
  3,377
  3,566
  3,762
  3,967
  4,182
Operating income, $m
  201
  230
  260
  292
  326
  361
  398
  436
  476
  518
  582
  627
  674
  723
  773
  826
  881
  938
  997
  1,059
  1,123
  1,190
  1,260
  1,333
  1,409
  1,488
  1,571
  1,658
  1,748
  1,843
EBITDA, $m
  255
  288
  323
  360
  399
  440
  482
  526
  573
  621
  671
  723
  777
  833
  892
  953
  1,016
  1,082
  1,150
  1,221
  1,295
  1,372
  1,453
  1,537
  1,625
  1,716
  1,812
  1,911
  2,016
  2,125
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  201
  229
  258
  289
  322
  356
  392
  429
  468
  509
  571
  615
  661
  708
  757
  808
  861
  917
  974
  1,034
  1,097
  1,162
  1,229
  1,300
  1,374
  1,451
  1,531
  1,615
  1,703
  1,795
Tax expense, $m
  54
  62
  70
  78
  87
  96
  106
  116
  126
  137
  154
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  314
  332
  351
  371
  392
  413
  436
  460
  485
Net income, $m
  147
  167
  189
  211
  235
  260
  286
  313
  342
  371
  417
  449
  482
  517
  553
  590
  629
  669
  711
  755
  800
  848
  897
  949
  1,003
  1,059
  1,118
  1,179
  1,243
  1,310

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  908
  1,025
  1,150
  1,281
  1,419
  1,564
  1,715
  1,873
  2,038
  2,209
  2,387
  2,572
  2,765
  2,965
  3,173
  3,389
  3,614
  3,848
  4,091
  4,344
  4,608
  4,882
  5,169
  5,468
  5,779
  6,105
  6,445
  6,800
  7,171
  7,560
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  908
  1,025
  1,150
  1,281
  1,419
  1,564
  1,715
  1,873
  2,038
  2,209
  2,387
  2,572
  2,765
  2,965
  3,173
  3,389
  3,614
  3,848
  4,091
  4,344
  4,608
  4,882
  5,169
  5,468
  5,779
  6,105
  6,445
  6,800
  7,171
  7,560
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
Average production assets, $m
  258
  291
  326
  363
  403
  444
  487
  531
  578
  627
  677
  730
  785
  841
  900
  962
  1,025
  1,092
  1,161
  1,233
  1,307
  1,385
  1,467
  1,551
  1,640
  1,732
  1,829
  1,929
  2,035
  2,145
Working capital, $m
  174
  197
  221
  246
  273
  300
  329
  360
  391
  424
  459
  494
  531
  570
  609
  651
  694
  739
  786
  834
  885
  938
  993
  1,050
  1,110
  1,173
  1,238
  1,306
  1,377
  1,452
Total debt, $m
  15
  32
  49
  67
  87
  107
  128
  150
  172
  196
  221
  247
  274
  301
  330
  360
  392
  424
  458
  493
  530
  568
  608
  649
  693
  738
  785
  834
  886
  940
Total liabilities, $m
  126
  143
  160
  178
  197
  217
  238
  260
  283
  307
  332
  358
  384
  412
  441
  471
  502
  535
  569
  604
  640
  679
  718
  760
  803
  849
  896
  945
  997
  1,051
Total equity, $m
  782
  883
  990
  1,103
  1,222
  1,346
  1,477
  1,613
  1,754
  1,902
  2,055
  2,215
  2,381
  2,553
  2,732
  2,918
  3,112
  3,313
  3,522
  3,740
  3,967
  4,204
  4,450
  4,708
  4,976
  5,256
  5,549
  5,855
  6,175
  6,509
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  908
  1,026
  1,150
  1,281
  1,419
  1,563
  1,715
  1,873
  2,037
  2,209
  2,387
  2,573
  2,765
  2,965
  3,173
  3,389
  3,614
  3,848
  4,091
  4,344
  4,607
  4,883
  5,168
  5,468
  5,779
  6,105
  6,445
  6,800
  7,172
  7,560
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861
  0.861

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  147
  167
  189
  211
  235
  260
  286
  313
  342
  371
  417
  449
  482
  517
  553
  590
  629
  669
  711
  755
  800
  848
  897
  949
  1,003
  1,059
  1,118
  1,179
  1,243
  1,310
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  96
  103
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
Funds from operations, $m
  201
  226
  252
  279
  308
  339
  370
  404
  438
  474
  506
  545
  586
  628
  671
  717
  764
  813
  864
  917
  972
  1,030
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,287
  1,358
  1,433
  1,511
  1,592
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
Cash from operations, $m
  180
  203
  228
  254
  282
  311
  341
  373
  407
  441
  472
  509
  549
  589
  631
  675
  721
  768
  817
  868
  922
  977
  1,035
  1,096
  1,159
  1,224
  1,293
  1,365
  1,440
  1,518
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -268
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -179
  -191
  -201
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -278
  -292
  -308
  -324
  -342
  -359
  -378
Free cash flow, $m
  119
  136
  154
  174
  195
  217
  240
  264
  290
  317
  339
  368
  398
  429
  462
  495
  530
  567
  605
  644
  685
  727
  772
  818
  866
  916
  969
  1,023
  1,080
  1,140
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  134
  152
  172
  192
  214
  237
  261
  286
  313
  340
  364
  394
  425
  457
  490
  525
  562
  599
  638
  679
  722
  766
  812
  860
  909
  962
  1,016
  1,073
  1,132
  1,194
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -334
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  281
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  320
  51
  64
  79
  95
  112
  131
  150
  171
  193
  210
  234
  259
  285
  311
  339
  368
  398
  429
  461
  494
  529
  565
  602
  641
  681
  723
  767
  812
  860
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  307
  47
  56
  65
  74
  82
  88
  94
  98
  101
  100
  100
  98
  96
  91
  86
  80
  73
  66
  59
  51
  44
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Globus Medical, Inc. is a medical device company. The Company is focused on developing products for patients with musculoskeletal disorders. It is focused on products to treat patients with spine disorders. The Company's products fall under categories, which include Innovative Fusion and Disruptive Technologies. The Innovative Fusion category products include fusion products to treat spinal disorders for the entire spine, and they can be used in various surgical approaches. The Disruptive Technologies category represents a shift in the treatment of spinal disorders by allowing for surgical procedures and the treatment of spinal disorders. QUARTEX is its Occipito-Cervico-Thoracic (OCT) stabilization system. QUARTEX features a threading locking cap to enable low-torque. The Company's portfolio of approved and pipeline Disruptive Technology products includes products that allow for minimally invasive surgical (MIS) techniques. _tck('aft');

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Globus Medical (GMED)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 61.9
Price to Sales 9.8
Price to Book 9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 45.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 61.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Return On Total Capital 16.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Return On Equity 16.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.1%
EBITDA Margin 27.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.3%
Operating Margin 23.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Net Profit Margin 15.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 0%

GMED stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GMED stock intrinsic value calculation we used $635.977 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Globus Medical. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Globus Medical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GMED stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GMED is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Globus Medical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Globus Medical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GMED stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GMED stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Globus Medical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Globus Medical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GMED stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GMED are equal to 35.6%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Globus Medical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GMED is equal to 24.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $967.778 million for Globus Medical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.37 million for Globus Medical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Globus Medical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Globus Medical: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Globus Medical Inc (NYSE:GMED): Exploring Free Cash Flows   [Oct-20-18 10:08AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Does Globus Medical Incs (NYSE:GMED) PE Ratio Warrant A Buy?   [Sep-24-18 09:49AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Globus Medical Acquires Surgimap®   [Sep-13-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Globus Medical: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 AI Biotech Stocks to Bet On Now   [Jun-14-18 01:41PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Cantor Fitzgerald Taps Spinal Stocks: 4 Top Picks   [Jun-03-18 06:06PM  Benzinga]
▶ Globus Medical: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Globus Medical Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [May-02-18 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Breakout Watch: This Medical Stock Is Outperforming 99% Of All Stocks   [Apr-27-18 04:09PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Montco medical device maker plots big push into orthopedic trauma market   [Mar-07-18 11:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Globus Medical Enters Trauma Market   [Mar-06-18 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Globus Medical tops Street 4Q forecasts   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Globus Medical Q4 Earnings Preview   [09:45AM  Benzinga]
▶ Why Globus Medical Should Be on Your Watch List   [Dec-29-17 10:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Stocks Showing Market Leadership: Globus Medical Earns 91 RS Rating   [Nov-13-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Globus Medical meets 3Q profit forecasts   [04:47PM  Associated Press]

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