Intrinsic value of GMS - GMS

Previous Close

$17.71

  Intrinsic Value

$24.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+36%

Previous close

$17.71

 
Intrinsic value

$24.17

 
Up/down potential

+36%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GMS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  2,597
  2,689
  2,789
  2,896
  3,010
  3,132
  3,262
  3,400
  3,547
  3,702
  3,867
  4,041
  4,225
  4,419
  4,623
  4,839
  5,067
  5,307
  5,559
  5,825
  6,105
  6,400
  6,710
  7,036
  7,378
  7,739
  8,118
  8,516
  8,935
  9,375
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,400
  2,483
  2,573
  2,669
  2,772
  2,881
  2,998
  3,122
  3,254
  3,394
  3,477
  3,633
  3,798
  3,973
  4,157
  4,351
  4,556
  4,771
  4,998
  5,238
  5,489
  5,754
  6,033
  6,326
  6,634
  6,958
  7,299
  7,657
  8,033
  8,429
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
  130
  132
  135
  138
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,474
  2,558
  2,650
  2,748
  2,852
  2,963
  3,082
  3,208
  3,342
  3,484
  3,568
  3,726
  3,894
  4,071
  4,257
  4,453
  4,660
  4,878
  5,107
  5,349
  5,603
  5,870
  6,152
  6,447
  6,758
  7,085
  7,429
  7,789
  8,168
  8,567
Operating income, $m
  123
  131
  139
  149
  158
  169
  180
  192
  205
  219
  299
  314
  331
  348
  367
  386
  407
  429
  452
  476
  502
  529
  558
  588
  620
  654
  689
  727
  766
  808
EBITDA, $m
  229
  238
  248
  259
  270
  283
  296
  310
  326
  342
  359
  377
  397
  417
  439
  462
  486
  512
  539
  567
  598
  629
  663
  698
  735
  775
  816
  860
  906
  954
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
Earnings before tax, $m
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  244
  256
  270
  284
  299
  314
  331
  349
  367
  387
  408
  430
  453
  477
  503
  530
  559
  589
  621
  654
Tax expense, $m
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
Net income, $m
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  242
  254
  268
  282
  298
  314
  331
  348
  367
  387
  408
  430
  453
  478

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,505
  1,558
  1,616
  1,678
  1,744
  1,815
  1,890
  1,970
  2,055
  2,145
  2,240
  2,341
  2,448
  2,560
  2,679
  2,804
  2,936
  3,075
  3,221
  3,375
  3,537
  3,708
  3,887
  4,076
  4,275
  4,484
  4,703
  4,934
  5,177
  5,432
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,505
  1,558
  1,616
  1,678
  1,744
  1,815
  1,890
  1,970
  2,055
  2,145
  2,240
  2,341
  2,448
  2,560
  2,679
  2,804
  2,936
  3,075
  3,221
  3,375
  3,537
  3,708
  3,887
  4,076
  4,275
  4,484
  4,703
  4,934
  5,177
  5,432
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
Average production assets, $m
  506
  524
  544
  565
  587
  611
  636
  663
  692
  722
  754
  788
  824
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,035
  1,084
  1,136
  1,191
  1,248
  1,308
  1,372
  1,439
  1,509
  1,583
  1,661
  1,742
  1,828
Working capital, $m
  392
  406
  421
  437
  455
  473
  493
  513
  536
  559
  584
  610
  638
  667
  698
  731
  765
  801
  839
  880
  922
  966
  1,013
  1,062
  1,114
  1,169
  1,226
  1,286
  1,349
  1,416
Total debt, $m
  627
  659
  694
  731
  771
  813
  859
  907
  958
  1,012
  1,070
  1,130
  1,194
  1,262
  1,333
  1,409
  1,488
  1,572
  1,660
  1,753
  1,850
  1,953
  2,061
  2,175
  2,294
  2,420
  2,552
  2,691
  2,837
  2,991
Total liabilities, $m
  906
  938
  973
  1,010
  1,050
  1,092
  1,138
  1,186
  1,237
  1,291
  1,349
  1,409
  1,473
  1,541
  1,613
  1,688
  1,767
  1,851
  1,939
  2,032
  2,129
  2,232
  2,340
  2,454
  2,573
  2,699
  2,831
  2,970
  3,116
  3,270
Total equity, $m
  599
  620
  643
  668
  694
  722
  752
  784
  818
  854
  892
  932
  974
  1,019
  1,066
  1,116
  1,168
  1,224
  1,282
  1,343
  1,408
  1,476
  1,547
  1,622
  1,701
  1,785
  1,872
  1,964
  2,060
  2,162
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,505
  1,558
  1,616
  1,678
  1,744
  1,814
  1,890
  1,970
  2,055
  2,145
  2,241
  2,341
  2,447
  2,560
  2,679
  2,804
  2,935
  3,075
  3,221
  3,375
  3,537
  3,708
  3,887
  4,076
  4,274
  4,484
  4,703
  4,934
  5,176
  5,432
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  242
  254
  268
  282
  298
  314
  331
  348
  367
  387
  408
  430
  453
  478
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  107
  109
  110
  112
  114
  116
  118
  120
  123
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
Funds from operations, $m
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  225
  234
  245
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
  321
  337
  355
  373
  393
  413
  435
  458
  482
  508
  535
  563
  593
  624
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Cash from operations, $m
  159
  164
  169
  175
  182
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
  351
  369
  388
  409
  431
  453
  477
  503
  529
  557
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -55
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -225
Free cash flow, $m
  104
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  315
  332
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  31
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  135
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  181
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  246
  259
  273
  287
  303
  319
  336
  354
  373
  394
  415
  437
  461
  486
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  116
  116
  120
  123
  128
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  184
  193
  204
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  311
  328
  345
  364
  384
Discount rate, %
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  107
  99
  94
  87
  81
  75
  68
  62
  55
  49
  38
  33
  29
  24
  20
  17
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

GMS Inc. is a distributor of wallboard and suspended ceilings systems, or ceilings. The Company provides a product offering of over 20,000 stock keeping units (SKUs) of wallboard, ceilings and complementary interior construction products for interior contractors. It offers steel framing and ancillary products for its customers. Its Wallboard is a building product for interior and exterior walls and ceilings in residential and commercial structures. Its ceilings product line consists of suspended mineral fiber, soft fiber and metal ceiling systems primarily used in offices, hotels, hospitals, retail facilities, schools and a range of other commercial and institutional buildings. Its steel framing product line consists of steel track, studs and various other steel products used to frame the interior walls of a commercial or institutional building. It supplies complementary products, including insulation, ready-mix-joint compound and various other interior construction products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GMS (GMS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.8
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 13
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 37.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 113.2%
Total Debt to Equity 115.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 11.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

GMS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GMS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2511.469 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GMS. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of GMS. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GMS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for GMS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GMS, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GMS.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GMS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $72 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GMS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for GMS.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GMS. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GMS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GMS are equal to 19.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GMS operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GMS is equal to 15.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $579.451 million for GMS - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.069 million for GMS is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GMS at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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▶ GMS Announces Resignation of Chief Financial Officer   [Oct-01-18 06:30AM  Business Wire]
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▶ Why GMS Inc. Stock Dropped 16% Today   [Jun-28-18 08:07PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ Why GMS Inc. Stock Just Popped 10%   [Apr-05-18 03:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Metro Atlanta's GMS continues acquisition binge with 2 distribution businesses   [Apr-03-18 02:21PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ GMS Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [07:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
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▶ Tucker, Ga.-based wallboard distributor acquires Amarillo, TX-based company   [Dec-06-17 03:23PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GMS, Inc. : November 29, 2017   [Nov-29-17 11:36AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GMS, Inc. : November 10, 2017   [Nov-10-17 12:29PM  Capital Cube]
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▶ Stocks Showing Improving Market Leadership: GMS Earns 81 RS Rating   [Nov-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ GMS, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:GMS) : November 2, 2017   [Nov-02-17 01:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GMS, Inc. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:35AM  Capital Cube]
▶ GMS Expands Footprint in Western Pennsylvania   [Oct-10-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GMS, Inc. : September 13, 2017   [Sep-13-17 06:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ GMS Shows Rising Price Performance With Jump To 83 RS Rating   [Sep-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ GMS, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:GMS) : September 1, 2017   [Aug-31-17 10:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Stocks Showing Improved Relative Strength: GMS   [Aug-30-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]

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