Intrinsic value of Genius Brands International, Inc. - GNUS

Previous Close

$1.70

  Intrinsic Value

$0.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$1.70

 
Intrinsic value

$0.40

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GNUS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  8
  12
  18
  27
  38
  52
  70
  92
  118
  149
  185
  226
  273
  324
  381
  444
  511
  584
  661
  743
  830
  921
  1,017
  1,118
  1,223
  1,332
  1,446
  1,565
  1,688
  1,816
Variable operating expenses, $m
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  238
  296
  362
  436
  519
  610
  710
  818
  934
  1,058
  1,189
  1,328
  1,474
  1,628
  1,789
  1,957
  2,132
  2,314
  2,504
  2,701
  2,906
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
Total operating expenses, $m
  19
  26
  36
  50
  68
  90
  119
  154
  196
  245
  304
  370
  444
  527
  618
  718
  827
  943
  1,067
  1,198
  1,337
  1,484
  1,638
  1,799
  1,967
  2,143
  2,325
  2,515
  2,712
  2,918
Operating income, $m
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -23
  -29
  -38
  -49
  -62
  -78
  -97
  -119
  -144
  -172
  -203
  -237
  -275
  -315
  -359
  -406
  -455
  -507
  -563
  -620
  -681
  -744
  -810
  -879
  -950
  -1,024
  -1,101
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -28
  -35
  -45
  -58
  -72
  -89
  -109
  -132
  -158
  -187
  -218
  -253
  -290
  -330
  -373
  -418
  -466
  -517
  -570
  -625
  -683
  -744
  -807
  -872
  -940
  -1,011
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  52
  60
  70
  80
  90
  101
  113
  126
  139
  153
  167
  182
  198
  214
  231
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -14
  -19
  -25
  -33
  -43
  -56
  -71
  -90
  -113
  -139
  -168
  -202
  -240
  -281
  -327
  -376
  -429
  -485
  -545
  -609
  -676
  -746
  -820
  -897
  -977
  -1,061
  -1,148
  -1,238
  -1,332
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -11
  -14
  -19
  -25
  -33
  -43
  -56
  -71
  -90
  -113
  -139
  -168
  -202
  -240
  -281
  -327
  -376
  -429
  -485
  -545
  -609
  -676
  -746
  -820
  -897
  -977
  -1,061
  -1,148
  -1,238
  -1,332

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  37
  57
  85
  124
  174
  240
  322
  423
  544
  687
  853
  1,043
  1,257
  1,495
  1,758
  2,045
  2,356
  2,690
  3,046
  3,425
  3,825
  4,246
  4,689
  5,152
  5,635
  6,139
  6,665
  7,211
  7,779
  8,369
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  37
  57
  85
  124
  174
  240
  322
  423
  544
  687
  853
  1,043
  1,257
  1,495
  1,758
  2,045
  2,356
  2,690
  3,046
  3,425
  3,825
  4,246
  4,689
  5,152
  5,635
  6,139
  6,665
  7,211
  7,779
  8,369
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.216
  0.211
  0.212
  0.218
  0.218
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
  0.217
Average production assets, $m
  12
  18
  28
  40
  56
  78
  104
  137
  176
  222
  276
  338
  407
  484
  569
  662
  763
  871
  986
  1,109
  1,238
  1,375
  1,518
  1,668
  1,824
  1,988
  2,158
  2,335
  2,519
  2,710
Working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  20
  25
  30
  35
  42
  48
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  111
  122
  133
  145
  158
  171
  184
  198
Total debt, $m
  12
  23
  39
  60
  88
  124
  169
  224
  291
  370
  462
  566
  684
  815
  960
  1,118
  1,290
  1,474
  1,670
  1,879
  2,099
  2,331
  2,575
  2,830
  3,097
  3,374
  3,664
  3,965
  4,278
  4,603
Total liabilities, $m
  20
  31
  47
  68
  96
  132
  177
  233
  300
  378
  470
  574
  692
  824
  969
  1,127
  1,298
  1,482
  1,678
  1,887
  2,107
  2,340
  2,583
  2,838
  3,105
  3,383
  3,672
  3,973
  4,286
  4,612
Total equity, $m
  17
  26
  38
  55
  78
  108
  144
  190
  244
  308
  383
  468
  564
  671
  789
  918
  1,058
  1,208
  1,368
  1,538
  1,717
  1,907
  2,105
  2,313
  2,530
  2,757
  2,992
  3,238
  3,493
  3,758
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  37
  57
  85
  123
  174
  240
  321
  423
  544
  686
  853
  1,042
  1,256
  1,495
  1,758
  2,045
  2,356
  2,690
  3,046
  3,425
  3,824
  4,247
  4,688
  5,151
  5,635
  6,140
  6,664
  7,211
  7,779
  8,370
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.720
  0.900
  1.010
  1.080
  1.120
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -11
  -14
  -19
  -25
  -33
  -43
  -56
  -71
  -90
  -113
  -139
  -168
  -202
  -240
  -281
  -327
  -376
  -429
  -485
  -545
  -609
  -676
  -746
  -820
  -897
  -977
  -1,061
  -1,148
  -1,238
  -1,332
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
Funds from operations, $m
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -31
  -40
  -52
  -67
  -84
  -105
  -129
  -157
  -189
  -224
  -262
  -305
  -350
  -400
  -452
  -508
  -568
  -630
  -696
  -764
  -836
  -911
  -989
  -1,070
  -1,154
  -1,242
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -24
  -32
  -42
  -54
  -69
  -87
  -109
  -133
  -162
  -194
  -229
  -268
  -311
  -358
  -408
  -461
  -517
  -577
  -640
  -706
  -775
  -847
  -923
  -1,001
  -1,083
  -1,168
  -1,256
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -36
  -44
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -101
  -112
  -123
  -133
  -144
  -156
  -167
  -177
  -189
  -201
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -275
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  -21
  -28
  -38
  -50
  -65
  -83
  -105
  -131
  -161
  -195
  -232
  -274
  -320
  -370
  -423
  -480
  -541
  -605
  -673
  -744
  -818
  -895
  -976
  -1,060
  -1,147
  -1,238
  -1,332
  -1,429
  -1,531
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  11
  16
  21
  28
  36
  45
  56
  67
  79
  91
  105
  118
  131
  145
  158
  171
  184
  196
  209
  221
  232
  244
  255
  266
  278
  289
  301
  313
  325
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  17
  23
  31
  42
  55
  72
  92
  117
  145
  177
  213
  254
  298
  347
  399
  455
  515
  579
  645
  715
  789
  865
  945
  1,028
  1,114
  1,204
  1,297
  1,393
  1,493
  1,597
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  34
  47
  63
  83
  108
  137
  173
  212
  256
  304
  359
  416
  478
  544
  613
  686
  763
  841
  924
  1,010
  1,097
  1,189
  1,283
  1,380
  1,482
  1,586
  1,694
  1,806
  1,922
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  13
  19
  25
  34
  43
  54
  67
  80
  95
  110
  126
  142
  158
  174
  190
  206
  221
  236
  251
  265
  280
  293
  307
  321
  335
  348
  362
  377
  392
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -23
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -72
  -92
  -117
  -145
  -177
  -213
  -254
  -298
  -347
  -399
  -455
  -515
  -579
  -645
  -715
  -789
  -865
  -945
  -1,028
  -1,114
  -1,204
  -1,297
  -1,393
  -1,493
  -1,597
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -3
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -22
  -29
  -38
  -50
  -64
  -82
  -103
  -128
  -156
  -189
  -225
  -265
  -309
  -357
  -409
  -464
  -523
  -586
  -651
  -721
  -793
  -869
  -948
  -1,031
  -1,116
  -1,206
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -3
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -67
  -67
  -66
  -63
  -59
  -54
  -49
  -43
  -37
  -31
  -25
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  38.9
  16.8
  7.8
  3.9
  2.0
  1.1
  0.6
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Genius Brands International, Inc. is a content and brand management company. The Company provides entertaining and enriching content and products with a purpose for toddlers to tweens. The Company produces original content and licenses the rights to that content to a range of partners. Its licensees include companies to which the audio-visual rights are licensed for exhibition in various formats, such as Pay Television, Free or Broadcast Television, video-on-demand (VOD), subscription on demand (SVOD) and digital video discs/compact discs (DVDs/CDs), and companies that develop and distribute products based on its content within different product categories, such as toys, electronics, publishing, home goods, stationary and gifts. The Company owns a portfolio of original children's entertainment that is targeted at toddlers to teens, including Baby Genius, Warren Buffett's Secret Millionaires Club, Thomas Edison's Secret Lab and Stan Lee's Mighty 7.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Genius Brands International, Inc. (GNUS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.1
Price to Sales 6.8
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 10%
Total Debt to Equity 10%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -32.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.7%
Return On Total Capital -48%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -33%
Return On Equity -50%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 100%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.7%
EBITDA Margin -600%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -433.3%
Operating Margin -600%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -433.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -600%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -433.3%
Net Profit Margin -600%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -433.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

GNUS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GNUS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Genius Brands International, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Genius Brands International, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GNUS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GNUS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Genius Brands International, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Genius Brands International, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GNUS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 160%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $6 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GNUS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Genius Brands International, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Genius Brands International, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GNUS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GNUS are equal to 149.2%.

Life of production assets of 117.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Genius Brands International, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GNUS is equal to 10.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $15.039846 million for Genius Brands International, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.484 million for Genius Brands International, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Genius Brands International, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
GNUS Genius Brands 1.70 0.00  str.sell
VIAB Viacom Inc. 29.39 74.03  str.buy

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